THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-5 ATS) at Denver (6-1 SU and ATS)
Looking for their fifth straight win, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers head to Invesco Field in Denver for a primetime matchup with the AFC West-leading Broncos.
Pittsburgh opened the season 1-2 (0-3 ATS) but rebounded to win four straight (2-2 ATS) prior to taking last week off. Two weeks ago, the Steelers beat the Vikings 27-17 at home, covering as a six-point favorite and they cashed in two Minnesota turnovers for defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the spread-cover. QB Ben Roethlisberger is third in the NFL with 2,062 passing yards, and he’s completing 70 percent of his throws with 11 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, the Steelers rank seventh in the NFL in points allowed (18.4 ppg), eighth in total yards allowed (291 ypg) and first in rushing yards allowed (76.6 ypg).
Denver fell for the first time this season last week in Baltimore, losing 30-7 as a 4½-point underdog. The Broncos opened the season with six straight wins (6-0 ATS), and they’re getting quality play from QB Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 1,617 yards, nine TDs and just one INT. Denver’s defense had its worst out of the season last week, giving up season highs in points (30) and rushing yards (125). Still, the Broncos continue to rank in the top three in the league in scoring defense (13.7 ppg, second), total defense (266.7 ypg, first) and rushing defense (86.1 ypg, third).
The Broncos have won seven of the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS) with the Steelers dating back to 1990. Since the Steelers scored a 34-17 upset win in Denver in the 2005-06 playoffs, the Broncos have taken the last two by scores of 31-20 as a three-point road underdog in 2006 and 31-28 as a four-point home pup in 2007. The ‘dog has cashed in four straight in this series, winning the last three outright, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 9 games, but it is on pointspread slides of 2-6 since last year’s Super Bowl (all as a favorite), 0-5 on the road, 1-5 after a straight-up win and 2-5 on Mondays. Denver is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 at home and 7-20 ATS in its last 27 after a non-cover, but otherwise the Broncos are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 this year, 5-1 against AFC teams, 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
The Steelers are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-1 as road favorites, 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 16-5 against AFC teams and 5-1 against opponents with a winning record. The Broncos have topped the total in 20 of 28 after a non-cover and 15 of 21 after a straight-up loss, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-1 overall, 8-1 at home and 4-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
Finally, the “over” is 19-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (6-1, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The red-hot Suns conclude a five-game, seven-dayr Eastern Conference road trip with a stop in Philadelphia for a battle against on the Sixers inside the Wachovia Center.
After suffering its first loss of the season on Wednesday – 122-100 in Orlando as a 7½-point underdog – Phoenix has rebounded to upset the Celtics 107-101 on Friday as 10½-point ‘dogs and then beat the Wizards in Washington 102-90 on Sunday as two-point favorites. Going back to the end of last season, Phoenix has won nine of its last 10 games (6-4 ATS), scoring at least 100 points in all 10 contests.
Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in its last four, losing in Detroit 88-81 as a 1½-point underdog Sunday. The Sixers’ offense has struggled lately, topping the 100-point mark just once in its last five games, with that being a 141-127 overtime win in New York on Halloween.
These teams split their two matchups last season with the home team winning and covering in each outing. Philadelphia scored a 108-91 victory as a 3½-point favorite in February and then lost in Phoenix 126-116 as a seven-point ‘dog six weeks later. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes, with the favorite going 11-2 ATS during this stretch. Also, the Suns have covered in 10 of the last 14 overall.
Phoenix has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 Monday games, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. Philadelphia is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 3-8 against the Western Conference, 2-8 when playing the second day of a back-to-back and 2-6 on Mondays.
The Suns have stayed under the posted total in six of its last eight road games and five of six Monday contests, but they’re also on “over” runs of 4-1 against Atlantic Division teams and 7-1 when playing the second day of a back-to-back. The Sixers are on “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 at home and 23-8-2 on Mondays. Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry, with the last three at the Wachovia Center staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and UNDER
