Wunderdog Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves 8
Looking back at the database archives, I see just one incidence where a 0-4 team has been posted as more than a seven point favorite, and that team lost the game outright. I'm not sure where this line is coming from as the Clippers have not been this big of a chalk in any of the last two seasons and at 0-4, there certainly isn't justification for them to be posted this high now either. The T-Wolves certainly aren't great, but they own a win and hung to within eight points at Phoenix, so certainly they have the potential to hang inside this number against the Clippers. The T-Wolves are never given respect on the road, and the result has been a 21-7-1 ATS mark in their last 29 road games. The Clippers are not designed for chalk at home and even against lesser numbers to topple, have accumulated a 5-16 ATS mark as home chalk. I'm riding with the T-Wolves.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves 8
Looking back at the database archives, I see just one incidence where a 0-4 team has been posted as more than a seven point favorite, and that team lost the game outright. I'm not sure where this line is coming from as the Clippers have not been this big of a chalk in any of the last two seasons and at 0-4, there certainly isn't justification for them to be posted this high now either. The T-Wolves certainly aren't great, but they own a win and hung to within eight points at Phoenix, so certainly they have the potential to hang inside this number against the Clippers. The T-Wolves are never given respect on the road, and the result has been a 21-7-1 ATS mark in their last 29 road games. The Clippers are not designed for chalk at home and even against lesser numbers to topple, have accumulated a 5-16 ATS mark as home chalk. I'm riding with the T-Wolves.
King Creole
Falcons/Saints Under 55.5
Yes, there's a chance that 60 or MORE points will be scored tonight in the "Big Easy" as the undefeated NEW ORLEANS SAINTS host their division rival Atlanta Falcons. Before we 'blindly' make an AUTOMATIC play on the OVER.... let's review as many different applicable situations and scenarios as possible.
With a whopping OVER / UNDER line of 55 or more points, check this out:0-5 O/U L5Y: All NFL home favs when the OU line is 52 > points.
Monday night games have also had lower-scoring tendencies with an OU line this high.1-5-1 O/U for all MONDAY games with an OU line of 48 > points.
Let's combine the high point spread with the high OU line to see what shakes out:0-7 O/U for all DIVISION home favs of 9 > points... when the OU line is 48 > points.
NFL SOUTH Division games have had very LOW-scoring results in the first half of the season:3-14-1 O/U last 7 seasons: All NFC SOUTH division games in the FIRST half of the year... when the home team is FAVORED. And if the home team is laying "Big Chalk" (Favored by -7 > points), the results have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in this time span.
A recent pattern indicates a lower-than-expected outcome for teams (like the Saints) that have exploded with points in their last two games. 0-3 O/U last 3 years: All NFL teams who scored 40 or MORE points in their last 2 games.
Falcons/Saints Under 55.5
Yes, there's a chance that 60 or MORE points will be scored tonight in the "Big Easy" as the undefeated NEW ORLEANS SAINTS host their division rival Atlanta Falcons. Before we 'blindly' make an AUTOMATIC play on the OVER.... let's review as many different applicable situations and scenarios as possible.
With a whopping OVER / UNDER line of 55 or more points, check this out:0-5 O/U L5Y: All NFL home favs when the OU line is 52 > points.
Monday night games have also had lower-scoring tendencies with an OU line this high.1-5-1 O/U for all MONDAY games with an OU line of 48 > points.
Let's combine the high point spread with the high OU line to see what shakes out:0-7 O/U for all DIVISION home favs of 9 > points... when the OU line is 48 > points.
NFL SOUTH Division games have had very LOW-scoring results in the first half of the season:3-14-1 O/U last 7 seasons: All NFC SOUTH division games in the FIRST half of the year... when the home team is FAVORED. And if the home team is laying "Big Chalk" (Favored by -7 > points), the results have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in this time span.
A recent pattern indicates a lower-than-expected outcome for teams (like the Saints) that have exploded with points in their last two games. 0-3 O/U last 3 years: All NFL teams who scored 40 or MORE points in their last 2 games.
Bob Balfe
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Rockets +7.5 over Jazz
MLB Baseball
Phillies -150 over Yankees
Lee/Burnett
BobBalfe.com now of Facebook! Click here
College Football
No plays today.
NFL Football
Falcons/Saints Over 56
This is probably the highest total I have seen on MNF ever. The reason why it is so high is because the Saints are scoring 40pts almost every week. I don't see much changing tonight. Atlanta does not have the defense they once had and they have some defensive line injuries which will give Drew Brees a ton of time to do his thing. Atlanta also has a ton of play makers on offense and they will be going against a Saints team with their own defensive line issues. MNF games have been going over almost every week in the past two seasons. I know that chances are one game is bound to go Under, but when you have two offensive teams that can score from anywhere on the field it never takes long for points to start rolling up on the board. Look for both teams to be explosive on offense. Take the Over.
Balfe was 2-1 in the NFL yesterday. He is 4-2 in the NBA on the season thus far. Good luck to everyone tonight!
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Rockets +7.5 over Jazz
MLB Baseball
Phillies -150 over Yankees
Lee/Burnett
BobBalfe.com now of Facebook! Click here
College Football
No plays today.
NFL Football
Falcons/Saints Over 56
This is probably the highest total I have seen on MNF ever. The reason why it is so high is because the Saints are scoring 40pts almost every week. I don't see much changing tonight. Atlanta does not have the defense they once had and they have some defensive line injuries which will give Drew Brees a ton of time to do his thing. Atlanta also has a ton of play makers on offense and they will be going against a Saints team with their own defensive line issues. MNF games have been going over almost every week in the past two seasons. I know that chances are one game is bound to go Under, but when you have two offensive teams that can score from anywhere on the field it never takes long for points to start rolling up on the board. Look for both teams to be explosive on offense. Take the Over.
Balfe was 2-1 in the NFL yesterday. He is 4-2 in the NBA on the season thus far. Good luck to everyone tonight!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
ATLANTA FALCONS +13.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Are the Falcons going to win this game outright? Doubtful. The Saints proved they can come back from almost any deficit after last weeks victory over the Dolphins. However, I do believe that Atlanta can do just enough to come away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded this week.
The Falcons are eager to rebound from last Sunday’s disappointing 37-21 loss at Dallas. The Falcons can't sit back in zone defenses all day, with no pressure from the front four and will be taking a page out of the Dolphins book from a week ago; Miami was able to get some pressure on Drew Brees with an exotic blitz package and I expect the Falcons to throw something similar at him tonight.
Remember, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS its last six overall and, dating back to last season 7-3 SU its last ten.
On the other side of the field: New Orleans needed a gargantuan effort and a complete melt-down by the Dolphins to salvage last weeks win and cover; although they say they are every bit as motivated as when the season started, I believe Atlanta is more the hungry team in this situation, and look for the Saints to play with a small amount of complacency.
It's interesting to point out too that New Orleans is perfect in almost every ATS statistical category, however there is one "chink" in its seemingly impenetrable armor; over the last two years the Saints are a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: The public is jumping all over the Saints and this line has continued to climb all week, turning the value on this matchup onto the visiting side. I expect Atlanta to play through some of its injuries and look for the FALCONS to improve to 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season! *9* Falcons.[/FONT]
ATLANTA FALCONS +13.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Are the Falcons going to win this game outright? Doubtful. The Saints proved they can come back from almost any deficit after last weeks victory over the Dolphins. However, I do believe that Atlanta can do just enough to come away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded this week.
The Falcons are eager to rebound from last Sunday’s disappointing 37-21 loss at Dallas. The Falcons can't sit back in zone defenses all day, with no pressure from the front four and will be taking a page out of the Dolphins book from a week ago; Miami was able to get some pressure on Drew Brees with an exotic blitz package and I expect the Falcons to throw something similar at him tonight.
Remember, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS its last six overall and, dating back to last season 7-3 SU its last ten.
On the other side of the field: New Orleans needed a gargantuan effort and a complete melt-down by the Dolphins to salvage last weeks win and cover; although they say they are every bit as motivated as when the season started, I believe Atlanta is more the hungry team in this situation, and look for the Saints to play with a small amount of complacency.
It's interesting to point out too that New Orleans is perfect in almost every ATS statistical category, however there is one "chink" in its seemingly impenetrable armor; over the last two years the Saints are a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: The public is jumping all over the Saints and this line has continued to climb all week, turning the value on this matchup onto the visiting side. I expect Atlanta to play through some of its injuries and look for the FALCONS to improve to 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season! *9* Falcons.[/FONT]
Evan Altemus
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Normally it’s never a good idea in the NFL to take favorites this high when facing decent teams. However the Saints are an exception to that rule. They are on pace to be the highest scoring team ever, averaging around what the 2007 New England Patriots were putting up on offense. While I don’t feel that New Orleans is anywhere near as good as that team, they still have one of the most potent offenses that anyone has ever seen. The difference for them this year though is on defense. Gregg Williams has done an outstanding job transforming this unit into one of the better defenses in the league. They have also managed to avoid injuries, and new addition Darren Sharper has improved the secondary. Many people think that Atlanta is a serious contender in the NFC this season, but they over-rated in my opinion. The Falcons were significantly outgained in their blowout losses to Dallas and New England, two of the better teams in the league. In addition, they were outgained by Chicago at home, yet found a way to win because of several Bears mistakes. Chicago was in position to tie that game though late in the 4th quarter, but they couldn’t score a touchdown deep inside Atlanta territory. The Falcons don’t have any wins against the better teams in the league, as their victories have come against Miami, San Francisco, Carolina, and Chicago. However, one of the biggest reasons for this selection is New Orleans home field advantage. They have arguably the strongest home field in all of football. The crowd noise will be deafening tonight, and the fast turf surface really aids the Saints pass happy offense. New Orleans had a scare last week against Miami, but they showed their true talent in the second half of that game. I look for the Saints to bring their maximum effort in this game and win by around three touchdowns.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.[/FONT]
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Normally it’s never a good idea in the NFL to take favorites this high when facing decent teams. However the Saints are an exception to that rule. They are on pace to be the highest scoring team ever, averaging around what the 2007 New England Patriots were putting up on offense. While I don’t feel that New Orleans is anywhere near as good as that team, they still have one of the most potent offenses that anyone has ever seen. The difference for them this year though is on defense. Gregg Williams has done an outstanding job transforming this unit into one of the better defenses in the league. They have also managed to avoid injuries, and new addition Darren Sharper has improved the secondary. Many people think that Atlanta is a serious contender in the NFC this season, but they over-rated in my opinion. The Falcons were significantly outgained in their blowout losses to Dallas and New England, two of the better teams in the league. In addition, they were outgained by Chicago at home, yet found a way to win because of several Bears mistakes. Chicago was in position to tie that game though late in the 4th quarter, but they couldn’t score a touchdown deep inside Atlanta territory. The Falcons don’t have any wins against the better teams in the league, as their victories have come against Miami, San Francisco, Carolina, and Chicago. However, one of the biggest reasons for this selection is New Orleans home field advantage. They have arguably the strongest home field in all of football. The crowd noise will be deafening tonight, and the fast turf surface really aids the Saints pass happy offense. New Orleans had a scare last week against Miami, but they showed their true talent in the second half of that game. I look for the Saints to bring their maximum effort in this game and win by around three touchdowns.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -12
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A national TV appearance is not the time nor the place for the Saints first bad performance of the year (6-0 ATS), so look for them to blow out the division rival Falcons tonight. Atlanta has been a horrible road team the last two years, losing 37-21 in Dallas last week, and they are on 0-4 SU/ATS run in division road games. The Superdome is not the right place to get back on track with the Saints 8-1 ATS their last nine games here. New Orleans is 18-5 ATS its last 23 games overall and has already scored 45 or more points in four games this season. QB Brees (16 TD passes) will take advantage of a weak Atlanta secondary. New Orleans is our 20* NFC South Game of the Month. [/FONT]
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -12
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A national TV appearance is not the time nor the place for the Saints first bad performance of the year (6-0 ATS), so look for them to blow out the division rival Falcons tonight. Atlanta has been a horrible road team the last two years, losing 37-21 in Dallas last week, and they are on 0-4 SU/ATS run in division road games. The Superdome is not the right place to get back on track with the Saints 8-1 ATS their last nine games here. New Orleans is 18-5 ATS its last 23 games overall and has already scored 45 or more points in four games this season. QB Brees (16 TD passes) will take advantage of a weak Atlanta secondary. New Orleans is our 20* NFC South Game of the Month. [/FONT]
Marc Lawrence
ATLANTA FALCONS +11
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Falcons invade the Superdome to meet the Saints in a key NFC South Division battle under the Monday Night lights. When Atlanta takes the field they will do so knowing they are 20-4 ATS as a visitor in this series, including 14-0 ATS in before Game Thirteen of the season when they own a win percentage of less than .700. On the flip side the Saints are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS on Monday nights when facing a .333 or greater division opponent, including 0-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. With double-digit division dogs 4-0 ATS on Monday night football when playing off a loss of 8 or more points, we'll grab the points with the Falcons. We recommend a 3-unit play on Atlanta.[/FONT]
ATLANTA FALCONS +11
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Falcons invade the Superdome to meet the Saints in a key NFC South Division battle under the Monday Night lights. When Atlanta takes the field they will do so knowing they are 20-4 ATS as a visitor in this series, including 14-0 ATS in before Game Thirteen of the season when they own a win percentage of less than .700. On the flip side the Saints are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS on Monday nights when facing a .333 or greater division opponent, including 0-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. With double-digit division dogs 4-0 ATS on Monday night football when playing off a loss of 8 or more points, we'll grab the points with the Falcons. We recommend a 3-unit play on Atlanta.[/FONT]
Brandon Lang
30- NO
20- teaser NO & Over
10- NYY
Comp- Grizz
Monday's Selections ...
30 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - The New Orleans Saints and head coach Sean Payton get to show the world on Monday night they are the greatest show in the NFL this year.
And when they do that tonight against this beaten up Falcons defense, I am not going to be on the wrong side of this blowout.
Forget the line move. It can work it's way up to as much as 13 because it won't matter if the Saints win by 14 or more will it? The Saints have the ability at home tonight to destroy Atlanta by 3 touchdowns. This current edition of Atlanta doesn't have that same capability.
We saw it at New England earlier this year when they lost 26-10, and at Dallas last week 37-21.
This game is about one matchup and one matchup only, the Saints offense against a beaten up Falcons defense.
In their 3 games versus the NFC this year, the Saints beat Detroit 45-27 to open the year, put up 48 at Philadelphia destroying the Eagles 48-22 and destroyed the Giants 48-27 at home 3 weeks ago.
With injuries along their defensive front, the Falcons can't get pressure on the QB as evidenced by last weeks loss to Dallas. When you can't get pressure with your front 4 in the NFL it's common knowledge you have to then blitz. That leaves your secondary in man to man coverage.
Against the same defense Drew Brees will see this week Tony Romo went 21 for 29 for 299 yards. Let us make no mistake about it, Romo ain't no Drew Brees.
Here is the dilemma facing the Falcons tonight. Blitz and Brees will own you. Rush 4 or 5 and play zone behind it, and Brees will pick you apart. Pick your poison and either way, the Saints offense will be to much for this Falcons defense. Simple as that.
As we have seen with the Falcons all year long, they are not able to sustain drives and execute offensively for 60 minutes. They are not going to shut down the Saints tonight. They are going to have to match them score for score and when they don't they will be down 2 scores just like that.
And once you are down 2 scores, you have to abandon your running game and start throwing and that leads to turnovers and that leads to another Saints blowout.
Just ask the Lions, Eagles and Giants how it feels to play catch up versus the Saints. It's no fun. Especially in New Orleans in the dome.
I am laying this big number and forcing Atlanta to do something they weren't able to do against both Dallas and New England and that is stay within 14 points on the road.
20 DIME, 2-TEAM - 6-POINT TEASER - If Atlanta is going to cover this number tonight it's going to be a backdoor situation with the Saints up 14 to 17 points late. So to protect myself with any backdoor madness with a number like this I am going to tease the Saints and the Over.
I like the Saints tonight. I like the OVER tonight. Simple as that.
However, in a crazy Monday night shootout which I believe we will get, Atlanta does have the offensive weapons that if they get down big and the Saints fall asleep a little bit, I can see the Falcons having the ball down 17 with 3 minutes to go trying to backdoor the world.
My case and point is last week versus the Cowboys. Let's say Dallas was laying 11 in that game last week instead of 4. Up 16 with 2:16 to go, the Falcons got the ball back with a perfect chance against the Dallas prevent defense to get a backdoor score.
Granted, Matt Ryan was picked off on the first pass play but as you can see, they did get the ball back down 16 with a chance to work on their 2 minute drill versus the Cowboys prevent defense.
That same situation could prevent itself in this game tonight with the Saints laying this double digit number.
So as protection against the backdoor, I am going to a 2-team teaser to protect the side and total I absolutely love.
SAINTS and OVER in a 6-point tease.
10 DIME - NY YANKEES - This is strictly a hedge play on my 20 dime series play on the Phillies.
Just trying to minimize the damage of the Phillies series play as their bats went queite in the World Series and as we saw last night, Brad Lidge couldn't get it done under the bright lights of this year's World Series.
So in trying to soften the blow of the 20 dime series play on the Phillies, I come with a 10 dime play on the Yankees tonight.
FREE SELECTION - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
30- NO
20- teaser NO & Over
10- NYY
Comp- Grizz
Monday's Selections ...
30 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - The New Orleans Saints and head coach Sean Payton get to show the world on Monday night they are the greatest show in the NFL this year.
And when they do that tonight against this beaten up Falcons defense, I am not going to be on the wrong side of this blowout.
Forget the line move. It can work it's way up to as much as 13 because it won't matter if the Saints win by 14 or more will it? The Saints have the ability at home tonight to destroy Atlanta by 3 touchdowns. This current edition of Atlanta doesn't have that same capability.
We saw it at New England earlier this year when they lost 26-10, and at Dallas last week 37-21.
This game is about one matchup and one matchup only, the Saints offense against a beaten up Falcons defense.
In their 3 games versus the NFC this year, the Saints beat Detroit 45-27 to open the year, put up 48 at Philadelphia destroying the Eagles 48-22 and destroyed the Giants 48-27 at home 3 weeks ago.
With injuries along their defensive front, the Falcons can't get pressure on the QB as evidenced by last weeks loss to Dallas. When you can't get pressure with your front 4 in the NFL it's common knowledge you have to then blitz. That leaves your secondary in man to man coverage.
Against the same defense Drew Brees will see this week Tony Romo went 21 for 29 for 299 yards. Let us make no mistake about it, Romo ain't no Drew Brees.
Here is the dilemma facing the Falcons tonight. Blitz and Brees will own you. Rush 4 or 5 and play zone behind it, and Brees will pick you apart. Pick your poison and either way, the Saints offense will be to much for this Falcons defense. Simple as that.
As we have seen with the Falcons all year long, they are not able to sustain drives and execute offensively for 60 minutes. They are not going to shut down the Saints tonight. They are going to have to match them score for score and when they don't they will be down 2 scores just like that.
And once you are down 2 scores, you have to abandon your running game and start throwing and that leads to turnovers and that leads to another Saints blowout.
Just ask the Lions, Eagles and Giants how it feels to play catch up versus the Saints. It's no fun. Especially in New Orleans in the dome.
I am laying this big number and forcing Atlanta to do something they weren't able to do against both Dallas and New England and that is stay within 14 points on the road.
20 DIME, 2-TEAM - 6-POINT TEASER - If Atlanta is going to cover this number tonight it's going to be a backdoor situation with the Saints up 14 to 17 points late. So to protect myself with any backdoor madness with a number like this I am going to tease the Saints and the Over.
I like the Saints tonight. I like the OVER tonight. Simple as that.
However, in a crazy Monday night shootout which I believe we will get, Atlanta does have the offensive weapons that if they get down big and the Saints fall asleep a little bit, I can see the Falcons having the ball down 17 with 3 minutes to go trying to backdoor the world.
My case and point is last week versus the Cowboys. Let's say Dallas was laying 11 in that game last week instead of 4. Up 16 with 2:16 to go, the Falcons got the ball back with a perfect chance against the Dallas prevent defense to get a backdoor score.
Granted, Matt Ryan was picked off on the first pass play but as you can see, they did get the ball back down 16 with a chance to work on their 2 minute drill versus the Cowboys prevent defense.
That same situation could prevent itself in this game tonight with the Saints laying this double digit number.
So as protection against the backdoor, I am going to a 2-team teaser to protect the side and total I absolutely love.
SAINTS and OVER in a 6-point tease.
10 DIME - NY YANKEES - This is strictly a hedge play on my 20 dime series play on the Phillies.
Just trying to minimize the damage of the Phillies series play as their bats went queite in the World Series and as we saw last night, Brad Lidge couldn't get it done under the bright lights of this year's World Series.
So in trying to soften the blow of the 20 dime series play on the Phillies, I come with a 10 dime play on the Yankees tonight.
FREE SELECTION - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
