Florida State vs. Auburn - January 6, 2014 - 8:30 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at pinnacle @ Under 68 -108
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Jan 6 - 8:30 PM
Reason For Pick:
I’m playing on Auburn and Florida State to finish UNDER the total. These teams can both score points. Both were involved in a number of high-scoring games on the season; each was profitable for “over” bettors. Therefore, its not surprising that this O/U line has climbed since it came out. I don’t expect to see quite the shootout that most others seem to be anticipating though and believe the high line is providing us with very fair value.
While they were indeed potent offensively, the Seminoles were also very stingy defensively. On the season, they allowed a mere 10.7 points per game, an average of 269.3 yards. In their last five games, they allowed 3, 3, 14, 7 and 7 points. (That’s an average of less than seven ppg.)
While the Tigers certainly got in some shootouts, keep in mind that nine of their 13 games produced 65 or fewer points.
The SEC defenses weren’t as dominant this year, as Alabama was the only team to allow less than 20 ppg. That means that this FSU defense will arguably/likely be the best one that Auburn has seen all year. (Note that even with the crazy ending, the Alabama game still finished with “only" 62 points and that it had an O/U line of just 52.5.)
The fact that there’s been all this time to prepare figures to help the defensive game planning, while potentially adding some rust on the offensive side of things.
A look at the previous BCS games, dating back to 2007, shows combined scores of 56, 21, 41, 58, 38, 62 and 55.
The Tigers know that they need to try and control the clock to have a chance at the victory. I expect a heavy dose of the run to help chew up the clock, leading to a final combined score which stays below the number. 10*