Service Plays Monday 1/11/10

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Alfred Kelley's Bets 1/11

Nba- New orleans hornets vs Philadelphia 76er's- 6:00 p.m. cst
Take the under 200


Dont play it. I went against my strategy today. I'll just stick with my strategy. So once again 1/11 bet cancelled! Thanks- alfred kelley.
 
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Cleveland / Golden State Under 214

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:

On Nov. 17 Lebron James finished with 31 points and a season high-tying 12 assists as the Cavs beat the Warriors 114-108 in Cleveland. That was the Warriors’ third straight loss to the Cavaliers and their sixth in the teams’ seven meetings since the 2006-07 season.

Golden State has also lost its last three games against Cleveland at Oracle Arena. James made a 19-footer to barely beat the final buzzer in the Cavaliers’ 106-105 win Jan. 23, their last meeting there.

Cleveland played last night, winning 106-94 in Portland; the second game of a season-long five-game trip against Western Conference opponents. James played a season-high 45 minutes against the Trail Blazers and finished with 41 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists while shooting 13 of 19. The five-time All-Star had 20 points on 8 of 8 shooting in the first quarter; suffice to say I expect him to be sluggish this evening.

Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in six of Cleveland's last nine overall and in four of its last five on the road.

On the other side of the court: After a poor start to the season, Golden State (11-24) has been more competitive lately. The Warriors have won four of seven - including victories over Phoenix and Boston - after losing 21 of their first 28.

The Warriors are well rested having been off since a 108-101 win over Sacramento on Friday, the opener of a season-high seven-game homestand.

Monta Ellis has scored at least 30 points in eight of Golden State’s last 11 games and is second in the league with 41.7 minutes per game.

Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in four of Golden State's last six overall.

Bottom line: Here are a couple more strong "under" trends each teams exhibit and which are directly applicable to tonight's game; Golden State has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 13 of its last 20 games after scoring 105 points or more in its previous contest while Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 20 of 33 games this year when playing the roll of favorite.

When taking into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!

9* UNDER
 
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Lenny Del Genio

Utah -7.5

There are two venues in the league where you don't want to visit playing with no rest. One is Denver. The other is Utah. The Jazz have covered nine of their last 12 home games. We were targeting this play even before the Heat lost to the Clippers yesterday afternoon, 94-84 as the Jazz are also playing with revenge. The roles are almost reversed from the last meeting when Utah lost 80-70 on South Beach, their lowest scoring output of the season. That was their fifth road game in eight nights, a big reason for that. Now its Miami playing for the fourth time in six nights. The Heat are just 15-30 ATS coming off BB road games, 8-19 ATS if they were underdogs in both of those games. Utah is 15-5 ATS playing at home with revenge for a double-digit loss. They are also off a 111-93 win in Dallas as 5.5-point underdogs, putting them in two great situations. They are 11-3 ATS if they were an underdog last game. They are also 18-7 ATS at home off a win by 15 or more points. Take Utah.
 
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Rocketman

Chicago -6

Detroit is 9-23 ATS last 3 years and 3-11 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this year. Detroit has lost 12 games in a row heading into tonight. Chicago is 9-0 ATS overall vs Detroit the past 3 years. Pistons are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Pistons are 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU loss. Pistons are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Central. Pistons are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss. Pistons are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Pistons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Pistons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pistons are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Pistons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Pistons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Pistons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pistons are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Pistons are 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago. We'll play Chicago for 5 units tonight!
 
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Doug @ 3 Daily Winners


Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA
A rather large NBA card in available to start another work week. As has become the custom on this day of the week, we bring you some of the very best professional basketball systems to consider for your wagering pleasure.

Toronto at Indiana (-1.5, 217)
The Pacers and Raptors are two teams that don’t pay strict attention to defense, ranking 24th and 26th respectively in points allowed. Tonight give the edge to Toronto since home teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game facing a club that allows over 102 PPG, after two straight contests where both teams scored 100 points or more, are 15-39 ATS.

Atlanta at Boston (-3.5, 192)
The Atlanta Hawks defeated Boston at home this past Friday 93-85 as four-point favorites. The next night Atlanta was abysmal in Orlando, losing by 32 points. Though it’s a tough road rematch for the Hawks, visiting teams scoring 103 or more points a game, trailing by 20 or more points in last contest are 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent in following encounter.

Milwaukee at Phoenix (-8.5, 211)
The Bucks are on a treacherous Western Conference six-game road trip, against the Lakers last night they were mauled 95-77. They play tonight in downtown Phoenix, which will be there third game in four days. Teams in that situation with a win percentage of 40 to 49 percent, facing a club with a winning record and a total of at least 210, are 25-6 OVER the last five seasons.

Miami at Utah (-7.5, 192)
The Utah Jazz is having a mediocre season by their standards at 20-17, yet have managed to cover their last three contests. Miami is actually doing a little worse overall at 18-17, which tonight’s matchup plays into a total system. When a squad has successfully covered the spread in two or more games, in a matchup involving two marginal winning teams (51 to 60 win percentage), with the total between 190 and 199.5, the UNDER is 45-17 since 2005.

Minnesota at Denver (-13, 216)
On Nov. 29, Minnesota marched into Denver and handed the Nuggets a 106-100 loss as 14.5-point underdogs. That is just one of three home losses for Denver, who is off heartbreaking two-point defeat at Sacramento Saturday. Check the total tonight as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite of seven or more, off a close road loss of three points or less, are 28-7 UNDER since 1996.

Cleveland at Golden State (+5, 215.5)
The Cavaliers (29-10) are playing their third road game in four nights and are 15-7 and 14-8 ATS as visitors. Though Golden State prefers to score with no semblance of defensive structure, play the UNDER when the total is 200 or higher, with teams like Cleveland playing their third road game in five days or less. with a winning percentage of 60-75 percent. (60-27)
 
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CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Mon
By vegas-runner

Allright fellas...We start the new week off by trying to cash in on a CBB "Early Move" made by the Betting Syndicates...and supported by my own Ratings/Numbers...We are "3-1" on those CBB "True Steam" BETS...And tonight, we'll try to add to that with a nice Home Dog on the added board...

More times than not...you can be sure that the majority of "moves" on the added board, are Wiseguy related...And more importantly for those of us that follow many of these Betting Syndicate Plays...Since the sportsbooks know that the betting public will rarely help them acheive any type of balance on these added board games...they go ahead and over-adjust...

And the best way to take advantage of that...is to allow them to make that adjustment, then employ some patience...Because what happens is that the books create such a "middle" opportunity for these Outfits...that as tip-off approaches...most times, they will go ahead and send out a "Buy-Order" on the "Other" side...to try and catch that "middle"...

This manuever then allows us to get almost as good of a line as the Outfits did...because once again, the sportsbooks will have to adjust for that "steam"...And if it happens to be an added game that the betting public is also getting involved in...many times, we will find ourselves with an even better number than those Betting Syndicates got...

Finally, because bettors see a line that has gone up and then down...or down, and then up...many times they will have no idea what side, if any...the Wiseguys are one...But because we have some very solid sources, who are behind many of these line moves that we see, each and everyday...we can be sure, on whether or not...it's actually a "True Position"...And in tonight's case, this is definitely "True Stream"...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for MONDAY 1-11-10 :

ST PETER'S opened +6....Now +4.5

The betting line for this match-up actually went up last night, because as more and more public bettors move over to basketball, from football...the sportsbooks aren't as afraid to put out a line...Because they know that they won't just be going up against the Wiseguys anymore...And when this line went up at 6, we immediately saw a few Outfits grab it...which forced the adjustment down to 5.5...Where it closed at on Sunday night, and where most books that had yet to offer a number, also opened it...

Then this morning, the race was on...Because after having some more time to break this match-up down, the Wiseguys realized that there was still plenty of value on the home dog...And because they also knew that this game wouldn't receive the kind of public action needed to force an adjustment, and possibly get an even better line by tip-off...as soon as one Outfit grabbed +5.5...the rest joined the party and began buying up all the +5.5 & +5's that were out there...

And this forced the books to drop the line to where we see it now...ST PETER'S +4.5.

LINE PREDICTION : Because I know from years of moving "steam"...that the lines the Outfits like to work middles around most in basketball...are those around the numbers 4,5,6, & 7...I believe that we just may see some try and decrease their position, in order to try and catch a nice "middle" to start the week...The reason for this is that those are the "key numbers" in basketball...Simply because of the reason, more games end by those margins, than any other...So I would not be surprised at all, to see this one creep back to 5 and even 5.5...at the "squarer outs"...Because those shops which don't accept much Wiseguy money, will almost certainly be booking Niagara from the betting public...With that said, if you see this one drop even 1/2 point more...then you can be 100% sure that the Betting Syndicates absolutely love this position...And more importantly, have uncovered some more supporting data...since they now have had more time to work on the match-up...As opposed to when they step up and take a position on an "opening number"...Those "early moves" are almost always based on the fact that the Outfit's Lines...differ from what the books hung up...And many times, those are the moves that they get off of completely...VR

Thanks again for all your support fellas...And remember, the oddsmakers/bookmakers are currently being forced to make some adjustments for all the bettors making their way over to basketball...Because of that, there will be plenty of good opportunities to profit...As long as you are able to identify when those adjustments are warrented, and when they are simply based on "Public Perception"
 
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DON BEST STEAM

:55:23am 2010-01-11 722 Oklahoma pk
9:29:36am 2010-01-11 708 Chicago Over 192½
9:18:16am 2010-01-11 706 Boston Under 192½
8:47:39am 2010-01-11 722 Oklahoma Over 146
8:43:47am 2010-01-11 714 Utah Over 193
8:39:02am 2010-01-11 718 Golden State Under 215½
 

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Mark Roth

8-5 Last Week +35 Units

10 Units Villanova (+3)
10 Units New Mexico State (+7.5)
10 Units Niagra (-5)

Good Luck
 
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Bobby Flanagan

3* Villanova +3

The Wildcats are looking like they started this season right where they left off last year. Their only loss coming to Temple while they have put it on cruise control past their other opponents.

Louisville has taken a couple of losses to weak opponents like Western Carolina and Charlotte at home earlier this season that does not look good for them. Their S.O.S. was easy in non-conference play but they still choked up in their two toughest games to Kentucky and UNLV. Right now Louisville should only have 1 loss instead of 4.

I think the four guard line up for Villanona is too fast and too talented for the Cardinals to handle and we'll go ahead and take the points in a game I think Villanova wins outright.

The Cardinals over the last decade have been losing over 75% of their tickets over the past few years when playing teams with winning records over .600%.


3* Utah State -18

Hawaii never travels well to the mainland and they are off to a 0-3 start this season ATS in road games. Utah State is coming off back to back road losses and they should win this by 20+ points.

I expect a very motivated Utah State team to try to salvage a bad road trip and learn from their mistakes and take out some frustration on Hawaii in the confines of their own building.

Utah State beat them by 20 here last year and I don't see any reason why they can't do it again this season. It's always good to back a quality hungry team in their first home game after a tough road trip and I think that tactic pays off for us tonight.
 

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