THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (7-0 SU and ATS) at (4) Atlanta (4-6 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers go after their second straight playoff sweep when they take on the overmatched Hawks in Game 4 at Philips Arena.
Cleveland coasted once again Saturday, notching a 97-82 victory as a heavy 8½-point road chalk to take a 3-0 series lead. The Cavs killed Atlanta on the boards with a 46-23 advantage and outscored the Hawks 50-36 in the second half after leading by just one at halftime. LeBron James went off for 47 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 14 points and eight boards. Cleveland has won all seven of its playoff games by double digits.
Despite playing on a sprained ankle, Joe Johnson led Atlanta with 21 points and five rebounds, but only two other Hawks reached double digits in scoring. The Hawks went to the free-throw line just 11 times, making seven, while Cleveland was 21-for-29 from the charity stripe. The SU winner has cashed in each of Atlanta’s 10 playoff games, with each of those contests decided by double digits.
Cleveland, allowing a suffocating 78.7 ppg in the playoffs while scoring 96.4, is now 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in the season series with Atlanta. The favorite has cashed in 19 of the last 27 meetings, and the Cavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 visits to Philips Arena. However, the home team is still 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
Cleveland is 30-14 SU (25-19 ATS) on the highway this year, and Atlanta is 34-12 SU (25-20-1 ATS) in the home jerseys.
The Cavaliers are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 11-0 overall, 10-0 after a SU win, 8-0 in second-round playoff games, 5-0 on the road and 17-3 as a playoff chalk. The Hawks are still on ATS upswings of 14-7-1 at home and 8-3 as a home pup, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-9 as an underdog and 1-6 catching points in the playoffs.
The under for Cleveland is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 16-5 in conference semifinal games and 8-1 when favored in the postseason. Likewise, the under for Atlanta is on tears of 9-3 overall, 12-3 against winning teams and 7-0 with the Hawks as a playoff pup. Finally, the under is 2-1 in this series, though the over-under has alternated in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS) at (6) Dallas (4-4 SU and ATS)
The streaking and fortunate Nuggets can gain a spot in the Western Conference finals when they go for the series sweep against the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center.
The referees called 61 fouls in Saturday’s Game 3, then swallowed their whistles when Dallas’ Antoine Wright was trying to foul Carmelo Anthony in the waning seconds, with the Mavs having a two-point lead and a foul to give. No call was made, and the second push from Wright created enough space for Anthony to fire up a 3-pointer that gave Denver a shocking 106-105 victory as a four-point road underdog. Anthony finished with 31 points and eight rebounds and Chauncey Billups added 32 points for the Nuggets, who are now 21-4 SU (17-8 ATS) in their last 25 games.
Dirk Nowitzki posted a double-double of 33 points and 16 rebounds in Saturday’s defeat, leading five Dallas players in double figures, but the Mavericks lost despite holding a 105-101 lead with 31 seconds remaining. Rick Carlisle’s club went 40 of 49 from the line in the foul-plagued contest, but did not get to the line in those final 31 seconds. The Mavs have lost SU and ATS in all three games in this series after entering on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS run.
Denver is now 10-1 SU and ATS in its last 11 meetings with Dallas, including 7-0 SU (5-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets have also cashed in each of their last five starts in Dallas (4-1 SU).
Dallas is 34-10 SU (21-23 ATS) at home this year, including 2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs. Denver is 23-21 SU and ATS on the road, but 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in postseason action.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-4 overall, 16-3 against the Western Conference, 15-3 against winning teams and 10-0 against the Southwest Division. On the flip side, the Mavericks are on ATS purges of 8-19 against the Northwest Division and 4-9 as a playoff chalk, but they are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home, 17-7 in their last 24 after a non-cover and 13-6 in their last 19 following a SU loss.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in second-round playoff games and 15-6 with the Mavs a home chalk, but the under is on a 9-2 roll when the Mavs are a playoff chalk of less than five points. Likewise, the under for Denver is on stretches of 7-2 on the highway, 21-9 with the Nuggets catching points and 18-5 with the Nuggets as a playoff pup.
Finally, even though the last two games have topped the total, the under remains 15-8 in the last 22 Denver-Dallas battles, and the total has stayed low in eight of the last 11 clashes in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (15-16) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets put a season-high seven-game winning streak on the line when they send ace Johan Santana (4-1, 0.91 ERA) to the Citi Field mound in the opener of a three-game series against the Braves. New York is coming off a three-game weekend sweep of the Pirates, outscoring Pittsburgh 25-8.
Atlanta, which hands the ball to Derek Lowe (4-1, 3.98) for this contest, has won four of five on its current road trip, including taking the final two games in Philadelphia on Saturday and Sunday by scores of 6-2 and 4-2, respectively. The Braves have won seven of their last nine on the highway.
New York’s current winning streak began with a pair of wins in Atlanta last week, the first meetings of the season between these N.L. East rivals. The Mets have won seven of the last 11 against the Braves overall and six of the last eight clashes in New York. Also, despite the Mets’ two road wins a week ago, the host is still on a 12-5 run in this rivalry.
Atlanta has lost 10 of its last 11 games on Monday, but it is 5-2 in Lowe’s first seven starts this season. New York is on streaks of 5-0 as a favorite, 6-0 against right-handed starters, 4-0 in divisional play, 17-5 with Santana on the mound and 5-1 with Santana pitching at home.
Lowe is coming off his worst performance of the season, allowing six runs in five innings at Florida on Wednesday, but he still earned an 8-6 victory. With that effort, the veteran right-hander who is in his first season with Atlanta is now 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in four road starts. However, he’s 1-2 with a bloated 8.78 ERA in eight lifetime appearances (two starts) against the Mets.
Santana continued his brilliance in Wednesday’s 1-0 home win over the Phillies, scattering two hits and three walks while striking out 10 in seven innings. The veteran lefty has given up just six runs (four earned) in 39 2/3 innings with 12 walks and 54 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts at new Citi Field, but he’s 0-3 with a 2.76 ERA in five career efforts against the Braves, including 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts last year, his first season with the Mets.
The under is 5-0 in Santana’s five career outings against Atlanta, 7-0 in his last seven starts overall, 5-0 in his last five starts at home and 5-0 in his last five against the N.L. East. Conversely, with Lowe on the mound, the over is on stretches of 5-1 overall and 3-0 against New York.
The over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last eight games overall, 11-4-3 in their last 18 on Monday and 4-0 in the Braves’ last four against lefty starters. However, the under is on streaks of 6-1 for Atlanta on Monday, 8-3 for Atlanta against N.L. East rivals and 11-5-2 for New York against divisional foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS