Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 100,000♦ Hawks
2. 100,000♦ Rays
3. 100,000♦ Jazz
1. Hawks- Say what you will about this Hawks team, and their road play, which has been atrocious all season... But they simply cannot afford to come out flat liek they did in Game 3 tonight. They scored 12 points in the first quarter, and 17 points in the second quarter, for a grand total of 29 first half points, in one of the more embarassing first half efforts I've seen in a long time.
So that begs the question: Why if the Hawks lost by so much in Game 3, didn't the oddsmakers adjust the line to show that in Game 4? Even with a majority of the public on the Heat tonight, the line has remained at or very close (in some places) to the line in Game 3. This immediately tells me that this game will be a hell of a lot more competitive than Saturday's debacle.
How do they do it? Well, first off, the Hawks frontcourt simply cannot allow a one-legged Jermaine O'Neal to average 20 points and 8 boards like he has over the L2 games (both heat wins and covers not surprisingly). They have the athleticism & size to match up with the Heat, but both Horford and Smith sure picked the wrong time to disappear! Look for them to get back to business tonight, as they've both gotten clearly outplayed by their counterparts up until now.
And then there's the backcourt. Most expected teh Hawks Joe Johnson to play better in Game 3... Obviously he didn't. Well, that being said, I still believe he'll break out of his slump, and this is the game he's going to do it. Its not like he's being "locked down," but rather he's just missing open shots, and eventually that will change. Bibby also got outplayed by Chalamers, which is unexcusable when you consider Chalmers is a rookie playing in his first postseason series. Look for Bibby to step it up against the rook tonight.
Bottom line, I know its hard to back a Hawks team that has been garbage on the road, coming off an embarasing blowout loss in Game 3. BUT, underestimate this Atlanta team at your own loss, as Miami has been known to lose focus (they're young, and Wade's penchant for turnovers doens't help), and if they think the Hawks are going to go down easy they're in for a BIG surprise tonight. In the end, the Heat may still win this contest, but we'll see a much better effort from the Hawks in Game 4, and they'll reward their backers with the cash because of it!
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat in Game 4 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs match up.
2. Rays- Three words: Fade Scott Baker. The Twins righty obviously hasn't fully recovered from his shoulder issues early on, as he got killed in the Spring, and that's continued at an alarming pace in the regular season. Baker is 0-2 with a laughable 12.46 ERA, surrendering a whopping 12 runs on 15 hits over just 8 2/3 innings! True, he faced to hot offenses back-to-back in the Blue Jays and Red Sox, but having watched him pitch, I wouldn't touch this guy with a 10-foot pole right now.
On the flip side, Jeff Niemann seems to be getting a better grasp, coming off a nice win over the Mariners in his last one. Again, just looking at the boxscore, and it would appear that Niemann had an average outing, but fact remains, he was perfect through 4 innings, and looked damn good doing it. I expect he'll build off that effort tonight against a good, but not great Twins offense (4.4 runs per game at home against righties thus far).
Situatioanally, the Rays come into this game having just lost two straight against the A's, and will be looking for the bounce back agaisnt the struggling Baker in this one. Not only that, but the Twins 'pen has been a disaster, posting an ugly 6.10 ERA on the season, as compared to the Rays 4.44 ERA (2.78 ERA over L3 games). That gives the Rays a strong edge, especially considering Baker has yet to go more than 5 innings!
Bottom line, repeat after me: Fade Scott Baker until he proves otherwise! We saw plenty of good from the Twins righty last season, but until he gets his head on straight, there's no question, the Rays are the play here. The fact Jeff Niemann showed some flashes of why he was the 4th pick overall in 2006 against the M's in his last, only stregnthens my argument!
Take the Rays behind Niemann over the Twins and Baker in this MLB match up.
3. Jazz- Let's make something clear: The Jazz are not the Pistons. I know plenty of people just finshed watching the Cavaliers destory the disinterested Pistons on Sunday, and are clamoring to jump aboard the Lakers bandwagon in this one. Be forewarned, the Jazz may not be as talented as the Lakers, but they're hardly throwing up the white flag like Detroit did yesterday. Read on...
We knew after the Jazz's Game 3 win, that the Lakers and especially Kobe were going to come out FIRED up in Game 4, and that's exactly what happened. Kobe dropped 38 points on 16 of 24 shooting and single handedly guided the Lakers to another impressive double-digit win. However, several things are VERY different about tonight's match up.
For one, its the Jazz who are the more motivated team tonight. Sure, coming off a Game 3 win, it was not surprising they came out flat in Game 4. Down 3-1 in the Best-of-Seven series, the Jazz are obviously now in a "win or go home" situation, which is the mind-set you want against this Lakers team. With two games after this one to recover if they lose, I doubt the Lakers will show the same kind of fire they did Saturday.
Also, another huge factor to consider is Memhet Okur, who's key to this Utah offense. He played only 13 minutes in Game 4, and contributed nothing in the process, but it was important for him to get on the floor and shake off some rust. Look for more minutes and more production from the Jazz's sharp shootin center, as he's the key to spreading this Lakers defense out, and opening up the lanes for Deron Williams. Other than Korver or Williams, the Jazz do not have another true 3-point threat than Okur, and they desperately need him to get at least contribute in Game 5.
Bottom line, its clear the Lakers will almost certainly win this game, but covering the spread is another issue entirely. Too many bettors are lumping the Pistons and the Jazz in the same sentence, when these two teams couldn't be more different. Will the Jazz advance? No. But will they lay down like dogs (like the Pistons did)? Absolutely not. Play on the Jazz to keep this one within the number!
Take the Jazz plus the points over the LA Lakers in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.
