Malinsky Write Ups
4* #703 PORTLAND over WASHINGTON
There is not an NBA team more ill-suited to play well on today’s matinee board than the Wizards. Not only is there the continued disarray for a 13-26 team having to deal with the loss of owner Abe Pollin, the Gilbert Arenas issues, and the fact that there is a Wednesday deadline for a proposed sale of the franchise, but they are now forced to play for the fifth time in seven days, a span which also includes a double-overtime affair at Chicago on Friday night. Not only does it mean physical fatigue, but to try to alleviate some of that they did not practice on Sunday. That means a lack of preparation that is even more important when facing a Western Conference opponent, one that they have not played since a 100-87 loss in Portland on January 24th of LY.The physical issues start at the very top, that Antawn Jamison/Caron Butler tandem that has to carry the load. In the first four games of this cycle Jamison has had to play an exhausting 186 minutes, while for Butler it has been 176. This early tipoff will bring tired legs from both (from Jamison, after Saturday’s win over Sacramento - <i>"Oh man, I'm going to be in a coma. It's tough, but you've got to push through it."</i>), and when they are not on top of their individual games Flip Saunders has no other viable options.Portland has shown a remarkable resiliency this season, a tribute to the kind of team chemistry and work ethic that Washington lacks. Despite playing through so many injuries the Trail Blazers enter this game on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run, and in that span they won and covered the two games without Brandon Roy by a combined 36.5 ATS. Roy was only able to go for about 30 minutes in practice on Sunday and may not be a major factor here but the line adjustment more than allows for us to play in this range. They have executed with poise and precision all season on the road, with seven victories over teams that are at .500 or better and a tough O.T. loss at Atlanta. Having been off since Friday, and playing for just the third time in eight days, they bring the energy to gradually pull away in this one.
4* #706 CHARLOTTE/SACRAMENTO Under
If the season ended today Charlotte would be a playoff team, and the Bobcats are in fact only one game out from being as high as a #5 seed. It has almost all been about defense, with a solid #3 in the NBA on our best set of ratings, and correspondingly Larry Brown has them playing at the kind of pace (#27) that makes that defense a focal point most games. Against a weak opponent that they can control, it is the defense and pace that come front and center, and that is what we have today.The Kings are not good enough to take the Bobcats out of their preferred game flow, and since Kevin Martin returned it has been a flat-out disaster offensively on this road trip, managing just 86 points each at Philadelphia (#23 defensively) and Washington (#21). Not surprisingly, those games played Under the Total by a combined 42 points. Because Martin was injured so early in the season (he had not played since November 4th), there never was time for him to develop a rhythm with Tyreke Evans and the other new faces, and when they opened the campaign with three straight road games they only managed 89, 92 and 94. Now it is like starting all over again, and with a Sunday practice being skipped to try to create fresh legs for this early start, there is no reason to believe that anything special is on the way here – if they could not find their way against two of the weakest defenses in the league, they can have some truly ugly stretches against one of the best.Look for Charlotte to focus even more on a slow pace here, forcing Sacramento to make those struggling half-court sets go, and for this to turn into an ugly and plodding grinder of a game
4* #728 SAINT JOSEPH’S over TOWSON STATE
Even in a down season for the program we can count on a Phil Martelli team going hard in every game, particularly in front of the home fans. That makes this a prime spot for the Hawks to get on back on track as they step way down in class against a team that they can dominate, especially since that opponent may be bringing precious little enthusiasm to the table.Towson State is a rudderless ship, with the Tigers on their way to the 6th straight losing season under Pat Kennedy (at 4-12 they will clinch that soon). But for as little as they bring most nights this one could get very ugly – they are playing their 7th game in 17 days, having to travel after a rare conference road win at Delaware on Saturday, and they are right back in C.A.A. play at home vs. Northeastern on Wednesday night. This is the usual rag tag assortment that we have grown accustomed to seeing under Kennedy, with Calvin Lee the only Towson player to start every game, and this is exactly the kind of group that can mail in a non-conference game after getting a rare league road win.The class difference between the programs showed when Saint Joseph’s rolled by 21 on the road LY, and while the W/L records are close this time around note how deceptive that is because of the major gap in scheduling (#10 vs. #233 Sagarin and #13 vs. #226 Pomeroy). This is the kind of matchup that the SR back-court of Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson can control (they combined for 30 points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists in LY’s win), and with those two shooting a combined 77.0 percent at the free throw line, the ball will be in the right hands to extend the margin in the latter stages.
