Service Plays Friday 8/1/14

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Bob Balfe ‏

Blue Jays -105


Happ/McHugh
This Bluejays team is on a roll as they are hitting the ball well facing a bad baseball team that has a weak bullpen. Toronto will come back down to earth in a few days when they get into a tough part of their schedule, but now during this winning steak at even money it is tough to go against such a hot team. Take the Bluejays
 

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Sportswagers

MLB:
Seattle +137
Milwaukee +140
Chicago Cubs +150

CFL:
Montreal -2
Bristish Columbia +4-[FONT=arial !important]Seattle +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)Our Pick[/FONT]
 
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MLBPrediction / Kevin

Kevin’s Pick(s):

2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros – BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-108)
Listed Pitchers: Happ vs McHugh
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

Toronto has been on a nice run since the All Star break as they’ve improved to 60-50 on the year and 30-27 on the road winning six straight and 11 of their last 13 overall. Houston is just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall falling to 44-65 on the season and 23-33 at home. The Jays will send lefty J.A. Happ to the mound who is 8-5 with a 4.58 ERA, .280 OBA and 1.51 WHIP. He will be facing Collin McHugh for the Astros who is 4-9 with a 3.45 ERA, .202 OBA and 1.12 WHIP. His home ERA is 4.75, compared to just 1.96 on the road. Take note that the Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 eoad games, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a right handed starter. They are also 4-1 in J.A. Happ’s last 5 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 starts as an underdog and 5-2 in his last 7 road starts. Houston is just 20-51 in thier last 71 vs AL East opponents, 45-137 in their last 182 vs a team with a winning record, 0-6 in McHugh’s last 6 starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts. Also take note that the Blue Jays lead the Majors in team OPS in July at .770, while the Astros team OPS was .699 over that span. The Jays have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Astros and I like the line on them tonight to continue their winning streak.

Kyle’s Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – ATHLETICS -1.5 (+103)
Listed Pitchers: Guthrie vs. Gray
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.06 units)

Nice way to finish up July with another win. I am currently on a 21-4 roll with no intentions of slowing down in August. It was a slow start to the season for me, but winning runs is what I have been accustomed to doing since I became a sports handicapper. Likewise, Sonny Gray hit a rough patch momentarily this season, but he turned things around quickly and has been money the past month. He’s only given up 4 runs in his last five starts. In that span he didn’t allow more than a run in any of them. Gray’s last three starts produced a small ERA of just 0.86, included was a 2 hitter against the Orioles two starts ago. He’s only given up more than 3 runs at home on once occasion against the Detroit Tigers. The Royals certainly aren’t the Tigers and I don’t expect them to hit like the Tigers here tonight. His ERA is strong at 2.65 despite a few hiccups, which speaks to how great he has been in the majority of his games. Gray enters with a 7-2 record at home. Gray is trending up, but Jeremy Guthrie is plummeting downwards. Take note of his last four starts: ER of 6, 8, 3, and 5 in his last start. His ERA is a staggering 9.19 in his last three starts. Understandably so his other numbers are extremely poor, a 1.98 WHIP and .449 OBP. When you’re putting on 2 runners per inning you’re bound to get hammered. The last really good start he had was back on June 23rd. With some pitchers you can tell they are just in a dry spell and will turn it around. However, I don’t think I can say that with Guthrie. He started the season off efficiently, but slowly trended down and now he has completely blown up. I think it very well be a tired arm for him, Guthrie a veteran that has been in the majors since 2004. His overall ERA of 4.70 matches right up with his road ERA of 4.70. Guthrie also has a 1.38 WHIP. The Athletics will be without Yoenis Cespedes due to the trade to Boston in exchange for Jon Lester, but with a .256 batting average this season, this was the right time to deal Cespedes as I think his ceiling has already hit. The A’s should be fine here against the Royals at home, as I see a total pitching mismatch. Take the -1.5 on the A’s as we attempt to start August out with a winning pick.
 
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BONES BEST BET (MLB)

BREWERS @ CARDINALS – UNDER 7 -105 *4* BEST BET

The Brewers have seen just one over in their past 10 games. Additionally both Peralta and Wainwright have been spectacular of late (and Wainwright spectacular all season). When we have two pitchers with sub 1 WHIPs (Wainwright on season and Peralta last 3 starts) and two teams scoring a combined 5.4 runs per game over their past 5 – have to love the under here.

ANGELS @ RAYS – UNDER 8 -130 [Buying 1/2 Run] *3*

Shoemaker and Hellickson have been solid this season (Hellickson in just two starts). Both of these teams have seen their offenses disappear (Angels 3.2 L5 and Rays 2.4 L5). With pitchers who in their past 3 starts have had sub 3 ERAs it’s no wonder why we like this under. Tampa come in having played to 5 straight unders and 8 of 10. The Angels have played to the under in 8 of 10 as well.

WHITE SOX RL (-1.5) -125 *3*

In a rematch from a week ago the Twins this time visit the Sox in what should be a cake walk for the huge home favorites. Monster Chris Sale leads his team tonight as they battle for relevance in the Central. The Sox just beat the Tigers on the road last night 7-4 behind solid relief pitching and plenty of offense. Sale is 10-1 with a minuscule 1.88 ERA this season and we can go on and on with stats on why we win this game including his last outing vs these Twins, a 7-0 victory. Minnesota turns to rookie Logan Darnell who faces the White Sox for the second time and was on the other side of that loss giving up 7 runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work.

BLUE JAYS ML -108 *3*

Hottest team in baseball (9-1 last 10 and 6 straight wins) and we don’t plan on getting off this train anytime soon. The Astros have lost 7 of their last 10 and now send Collin McHugh to the hill tonight who has respectable numbers but has struggled at home. McHugh is 2-6 at home with a 4.75 ERA. We’re expecting JA Happ to have himself a game tonight as it’s his first start in Houston since being traded from them in 2012.

REDS ML +107 *3*

The Reds have won 7 straight and 9 of their last 10 vs the Marlins. Latos has been great since he came back in June. In 8 starts this year he has an amazing 0.89 WHIP. In 27 innings pitched on the road he has a 0.63 WHIP and 2.00 ERA. We had this as a big play with the expected Turner on the mound tonight but now that they’ve switched to Cosart after acquiring him yesterday, we’re backing off a little on the wager size.
 
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MLB betting Cheat Sheet: BoSox Blues

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend’s major league action:

Dioner Dialed In

Dioner Navarro has been on fire for the Blue Jays (-110, 8.5) as of late. The surprise catcher has been one of the team’s most productive hitters during their recent streak. Navarro has hits in five of the Blue Jays last six games including five RBIs as Toronto continues to hold the second AL Wild Card spot while chasing the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.

Action Jackson

Austin Jackson left his last appearance with the Detroit Tigers midway through an eventual loss to the Chicago White Sox, but the new Seattle Mariners outfielder who was a part of the three team David Price deal will be bringing a needed red hot bat to the Pacific Northwest. Jackson had two hits and an RBI to stretch his hitting streak to five games.

BoSox Blues

Boston Red Sox fans can likely finally give up any hopes of turning around their season as defending World Series champions. After trading Jon Lester and John Lackey at the deadline, things are likely to go from bad to worse for Boston. Not a good sign for a team that is 2-8 in their last ten ball games

Pitching Notes

* AJ Burnett starts Saturday for the Phillies and has been providing consistent overs since July when on the mound. Since July 1, the Over is 5-1 when the former Blue Jays and Yankees pitcher gets his start.

* Marcus Stroman will start Sunday’s series finale for the Blue Jays against the cellar dwelling Astros in the midst of a breakout streak of a quality starts for Toronto. The young potential ace has three straight wins on the mound, two of which were against the Red Sox including a no hitter bid at the Rogers Centre and a win at Fenway.

Hitting Notes

* Dodgers outfielder Yaisel Puig is doing his best to put himself in NL MVP consideration with the Dodgers and is red hot heading into August. The Cuban is 12-26 in his last five games at the plate, including two four hit games and hits in all but one appearance for Los Angeles.

* Oakland will have to find production to replace Yoenis Cespedes, the back to back Home Run Derby champion who was included in the Jon Lester trade with Boston. Cespedes currently has 17 home runs and 67 RBI’s this season as one of the best bats for the A’s so this weekend will be interesting for Oakland in terms of finding out where their new power will come from.

Totals Streak

Cincinnati Reds (1-9 O/U in last ten): Cold bats have been the issue for the Reds all season, so it should be no shock that they have quite the streak of Unders going during their recent struggles. Going 3-7 in their last ten, nine games have went under the total for the Reds in those ten ballgames.

Prop of the Day

Yu Darvish has been the lone bright spot for the Texas Rangers this season and is still very much an ace in the AL with a 10-6 record and a 2.90 ERA. A play on the Rangers F5 ML or the F5 Under could be a strong Sunday prop play with Darvish on the mound.

Injury Notes

* Boston outfielder Shane Victorino will miss Friday’s game against the Mariners with a slight back injury that is causing him discomfort. Red Sox manager John Farrell will be hoping newly acquired outfielder Yoenis Cespedes will be able to replace him in the lineup.

* Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce will be expected to return to baseball this weekend following a leave of absence to due to passing of a family member. Bruce is currently struggling along with the Reds, but will be looking to get back on track at the plate in a return to the game.
 
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Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2013 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Chris Sale starts the White Sox are 10-0 since May 23, 2012 as a home 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND

The Yankees are 1-13-1 OU since July 23, 2012 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series.

The Rockies are 0-12 since May 09, 2014 as a dog after a loss it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

CHOICE TREND:

The Rockies are 0-12 since May 09, 2014 as a dog after a loss it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Justin Verlander starts the Tigers are 21-4 since July 24, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1290.
 
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Andre Gomes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ R. Vogelsong) @ +112 / 2.12 on Bookmaker

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs. J. Niese)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

I think that we have some value w/ SFG in this matchup as long as they are receiving odds of being the Underdog… my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 line.

The Giants will throw Ryan Vogelsong to the mound, and he has been solid lately (except on weird start @PHI). He kept the red hot LAD team in check by allowing just 2 ER’s in 6.0 IP’s of work. His advanced numbers of 2.30 FIP & 3.77 xFIP in that game was a good sign and I expect him to be decent tonight.

On the other end, I’m fading Jon Niese who has struggled in b2b starts after coming off the DL after allowing 3 & 4 ER’s vs. MIL & SEA. I’ve checked his game log numbers in fangraphs.com and one key factor has alerted me: his zone% in both games! For the season, his average Zone% has been 50.0%, but he had 43.2% & 41.9% in those two games – both numbers are way off vs. his season mark! I think that he might need a bit more time to regain his old form and therefore, I’m taking the Giants in here @plus money!
 
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River City Sharps

The Angels travel to Tampa to open up a three game series with the Rays, who are still in shock over the blockbuster deal, having lost David Price to the Tigers. The Angels will send Matt Shoemaker (8-3, 4.13) to the hill and he has been pretty solid, coming off his best start in the big leagues, tossing seven innings while surrendering three hits and earning the decision in Saturday's 4-0 win over Detroit. He will face Jeremy Hellickson (0-0 1.00), who didn't get through the fifth inning his last time out to earn a victory in Tampa's win. He has been up and down since coming back from surgery. Tampa has been really hot lately, but the Angels have been good all year and with the hangover from the Price trade, we like the slight road favorite here as the money is tending to agree. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - LOS ANGELES ANGELS (-113)
 
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NonStopSportsPicks

1.5* Rays/Angels Under 7.5 (-120)

First of all, I'm really not expecting much from Tampa tonight and actually think the Rays are going to lose (LAA is a strong play also). Tampa has been hot, and the team HAD to be thinking of the wild-card, and then they trade the ace when they're just a few games out? Okay...THAT'S a HUGE blow to these guys, and HOW do they come out and respond? I'm fully expecting a laxadazical effort here. If that's not enough, Shoemaker is looking REALLY good as of late, and just shut out Verlander and the Tigers. On the opposite side of the mound, we have Hellickson who has been lights out since he's been back. He's on a pitch limit, but he should get them 5-6 tonight, and from there, we DO like the Rays pen. And we DO like unders in Tropicana Field.
 
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Dave Aquino
Today's Selections


MLB: Baltimore, Chicago WS, Oakland


WNBA: Connecticut +5


CFL: lions/stampeders under 45.5
 

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