MLBPrediction / Kevin
Kevin’s Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros – BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-108)
Listed Pitchers: Happ vs McHugh
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
Toronto has been on a nice run since the All Star break as they’ve improved to 60-50 on the year and 30-27 on the road winning six straight and 11 of their last 13 overall. Houston is just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall falling to 44-65 on the season and 23-33 at home. The Jays will send lefty J.A. Happ to the mound who is 8-5 with a 4.58 ERA, .280 OBA and 1.51 WHIP. He will be facing Collin McHugh for the Astros who is 4-9 with a 3.45 ERA, .202 OBA and 1.12 WHIP. His home ERA is 4.75, compared to just 1.96 on the road. Take note that the Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 eoad games, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a right handed starter. They are also 4-1 in J.A. Happ’s last 5 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 starts as an underdog and 5-2 in his last 7 road starts. Houston is just 20-51 in thier last 71 vs AL East opponents, 45-137 in their last 182 vs a team with a winning record, 0-6 in McHugh’s last 6 starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts. Also take note that the Blue Jays lead the Majors in team OPS in July at .770, while the Astros team OPS was .699 over that span. The Jays have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Astros and I like the line on them tonight to continue their winning streak.
Kyle’s Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – ATHLETICS -1.5 (+103)
Listed Pitchers: Guthrie vs. Gray
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.06 units)
Nice way to finish up July with another win. I am currently on a 21-4 roll with no intentions of slowing down in August. It was a slow start to the season for me, but winning runs is what I have been accustomed to doing since I became a sports handicapper. Likewise, Sonny Gray hit a rough patch momentarily this season, but he turned things around quickly and has been money the past month. He’s only given up 4 runs in his last five starts. In that span he didn’t allow more than a run in any of them. Gray’s last three starts produced a small ERA of just 0.86, included was a 2 hitter against the Orioles two starts ago. He’s only given up more than 3 runs at home on once occasion against the Detroit Tigers. The Royals certainly aren’t the Tigers and I don’t expect them to hit like the Tigers here tonight. His ERA is strong at 2.65 despite a few hiccups, which speaks to how great he has been in the majority of his games. Gray enters with a 7-2 record at home. Gray is trending up, but Jeremy Guthrie is plummeting downwards. Take note of his last four starts: ER of 6, 8, 3, and 5 in his last start. His ERA is a staggering 9.19 in his last three starts. Understandably so his other numbers are extremely poor, a 1.98 WHIP and .449 OBP. When you’re putting on 2 runners per inning you’re bound to get hammered. The last really good start he had was back on June 23rd. With some pitchers you can tell they are just in a dry spell and will turn it around. However, I don’t think I can say that with Guthrie. He started the season off efficiently, but slowly trended down and now he has completely blown up. I think it very well be a tired arm for him, Guthrie a veteran that has been in the majors since 2004. His overall ERA of 4.70 matches right up with his road ERA of 4.70. Guthrie also has a 1.38 WHIP. The Athletics will be without Yoenis Cespedes due to the trade to Boston in exchange for Jon Lester, but with a .256 batting average this season, this was the right time to deal Cespedes as I think his ceiling has already hit. The A’s should be fine here against the Royals at home, as I see a total pitching mismatch. Take the -1.5 on the A’s as we attempt to start August out with a winning pick.