MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
So, this is what we’ve come to in Derek Jeter’s final season -- a Yankees-Red Sox rivalry game that will feature a pitching matchup of Chris Capuano vs. Anthony Ranaudo tonight at Fenway Park.
On the other hand, we’re also seeing a new era for both these clubs. There's no better example than what we saw at the trade deadline, where Boston did well leaving opposing GM’s scratching their heads like they just got swindled. The Yankees just kind of burped. It’s definitely a new era.
The Red Sox organization hopes that Raunado, just called up from Triple-A Pawtucket (12-4, 2.41 ERA) for his major league debut, can show the city that their terrible follow-up to the 2013 championship season is being squashed. Boston's focus on a new direction says 'the future is bright' -- and it actually means it. Raunado is part of that selling point after the Sox dealt Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront -- basically the championship rotation.
The prospect of seeing newly acquired Yoenis Cespedes use the Green Monster to his advantage is exciting, too. All those long, high fly balls caught on the Oakland warning track will likely be homers at Fenway Park. Cespedes should be statistically better in Boston than he ever was in Oakland just because of the wall, which could improve his career .266 average by about 16 points.
Then you’ve got another hitter in the newly acquired Allen Craig who should flourish at Fenway. This may be one of those deals five years from now where we say 'what were they thinking?’ He’s struggled, especially lately where he has no hits in his last 11 at-bats. The Cardinals were 1-4 over those games, and the only game they won was when Craig didn’t start and he pinch-hit in the eighth, flying out
Craig is struggling, but was it too early for St. Louis to give up on him? He hit .307 or better in each of the past three seasons, and he was also their most clutch hitter, but his average dipped to .237 this season. Maybe there’s more to the story, but for getting a contact hitter like Craig in his prime at only 30-years-old, it seems like Boston made the steal of the entire trade deadline run on Thursday.
Boston is a -115 favorite tonight with a total set at 9 runs. The Sox have been struggling lately (actually, all season). They’re currently on a 1-8 run and have lost their past three. They’re in last place, and if you’re betting them every game, you’re down -23.9 units, which is the worst figure among all teams. But the future is bright.
The Yankees lead the season series 6-4, taking 2-of-3 in their only other visit to Fenway, April 22-24. Both Yankee wins went well over the total. The Red Sox have stayed UNDER the total in 28 of their last 39 home games.
The Yankees, 1-4 in their past five games, give the ball to Capuano (1-1, 4.30 ERA), who they acquired by trade with Colorado after he was designated for assignment by Boston on June 25. Nice move, Yankees. It's not quite the same splash near the deadline like getting a Randy Johnson. Come on, they're only five games back in a weaker-than-usual AL East!
On Thursday, New York made a deal with Boston for Stephen Drew and his .176 batting average for Kelly Johnson. The most exciting thing about the trade was that it was the first between these two rivals since 1997.
Look for the Yankees to play this one tough, just like they have in their past 11 games when each were decided by two runs or less. These two pitchers also present a good scoring opportunity.
Friday selections:
Yankees (Capuano) +110 at Red Sox
Yankees/Red Sox OVER 9 (-110)
Royals (Guthrie) +195 at A’s
Pirates (Volquez) -108 at Diamondbacks