STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, AUGUST 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 8/1/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Red Sox's Sell-Off Brings Back Big-League Talent: General manager Ben Cherington and the Boston Red Sox threw a major curveball at the baseball world Thursday. While the sport waited for the Red Sox to trade off some of their veteran players and get prospects in return, Cherington primarily went another way: He knew his club was loaded with minor league prospects, so he picked up talent that can help the Sox right now and into next season. "Hopefully, we've turned this into moves that make us better now and give us a real head start the rest of the season and into the offseason with the full intent of building a strong, contending team in 2015," Cherington said at a Thursday night media conference.
Taking full blame for the defending champions falling into last place because of offseason decisions that didn't work, Cherington, who already released catcher A.J. Pierzynski and traded pitchers Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront, wheeled and dealed on Thursday. He sent ace Jon Lester to the Oakland A's along with left fielder Jonny Gomes in exchange for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. He then traded right-hander John Lackey, a minor-leaguer and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for right-hander Joe Kelly and outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig. Lester and Lackey recorded seven of the Red Sox's 11 wins in last year's postseason. Lester, due to be a free agent after the season, said previously he would consider coming back, but that doesn't seem likely.
The Red Sox played hardball with impending free agents before, and it mostly backfired, most recently when they allowed center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to leave for the rival New York Yankees as a free agent. Now, Ellsbury will be in the Yankees' lineup Friday night at Fenway Park. So will shortstop Stephen Drew, who was sent to New York for infielder Kelly Johnson on Thursday. Boston's other non-waiver deadline deal sent left-handed reliever Andrew Miller, also free at the end of the year, to the Baltimore Orioles for minor league left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, one of three pitching prospects the Sox acquired in the recent deals. Miller also said he would come back if the offer were right.
•Price Deal The Latest Coup For Tigers' Dombrowski: Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski had no idea he'd be adding another Cy Young Award winner this week. Dombrowski has stunned the baseball world with bold moves before and provided the jaw-dropping moment of this year's non-waiver trade deadline, acquiring Tampa Bay ace left-hander David Price on Thursday. The price for Price was naturally steep. He gave up young left-handed starter Drew Smyly and minor-league infielder Willy Adames to Tampa Bay and starting center fielder Austin Jackson to Seattle in the three-way blockbuster.
Dombrowski had some discussions with the Rays about 10 days earlier but didn't think they were going anywhere. As the deadline approached, the Rays were more interested in moving Price, who becomes a free agent after the 2015 season. Now the Tigers suddenly have the last three American League Cy Young winners in their rotation -- Justin Verlander (2011), Price (2012) and Max Scherzer (2013). The acquisition of Price effectively neutralized Oakland's trade for Boston ace Jon Lester earlier in the day. The Tigers, like the A's, are all in as they seek their first World Series title since 1984. It also gives the Tigers insurance in case they do not resign Scherzer, who becomes a free agent after the season.
Around The League
-- The Washington Nationals gave up part of their future in an exchange for a veteran infielder to help with their playoff push when they traded infielder Zach Walters to the Cleveland Indians for shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera an All-Star in 2011 and 2012, on Thursday. Washington first-year manager Matt Williams said before Thursday's game with the Philadelphia Phillies that Cabrera will see most of his time at second baseman, where he has played 162 games (149 starts) in his major league career. Cabrera has played 730 games at shortstop in his career and is a lifetime .270 hitter in 3,460 at bats. Walters, 24, hit .234 with three homers in 40 games the past two seasons for the Nationals and was among the minor league leaders in homers in 2013.
-- The Baltimore Orioles bolstered their bullpen by acquiring left-hander Andrew Miller from the Boston Red Sox for minor leaguer left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez just about an hour before the end of the non-waver trade deadline Thursday. Miller was pursued by several clubs, most notably the Detroit Tigers, before the Orioles swooped in and made the deal. Miller, 29, has a 2.34 ERA (11 earned runs over 42.1 innings) with 13 walks and 69 strikeouts in 50 appearances for the Red Sox this season.
-- Outfielder Martin Prado and infielder Stephen Drew were acquired by the New York Yankees as the clock expired on the non-waiver trade deadline Thursday afternoon. The Yankees sent slugger Peter O'Brien to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Prado, who is in the middle of a four-year, $40 million contract. Prado can play seven positions, and is likely to see time in the outfield and at second base for the Yankees. Prado, 30, is hitting .270 with five homers and 42 RBI this season. He has a career .290 batting average with the Braves and Diamondbacks and primarily played third base in Arizona. Drew, a shortstop with the Boston Red Sox, joins the Yankees as a likely second baseman.
-- The Atlanta Braves bolstered their roster for the final two months of the season, acquiring outfielder Emilio Bonifacio, left-handed pitcher James Russell and a cash consideration from the Chicago Cubs for switch-hitting catching prospect Victor Caratini. The 29-year-old Bonifacio batted .279 with two home runs and 18 RBIs in 69 games for the Cubs this year. He joined the Cubs in February after being designated for assignment by the Kansas City Royals. Russell, 28, was 0-2 with one save and a 3.51 ERA in 44 relief appearances this season for the Cubs. Since the beginning of 2010, Russell is 10-16 with three saves and a 3.87 ERA in 316 outings. The 20-year-old Caratini was a second-round choice by the Braves in the 2013 draft and ranked by Baseball America as the eighth-best prospect in the their farm system.
-- The Miami Marlins acquired right-hander Jarred Cosart from the Houston Astros on Thursday in a six-player deal. Going to Miami with Cosart were infielder-outfielder Kiki Hernandez and outfielder Austin Wates. Headed to Houston were third baseman Colin Moran, outfielder Jake Marisnick, right-hander Francis Martes and a 2015 compensatory draft pick.
-- The Seattle Mariners acquired outfielder Chris Denorfia from the San Diego Padres for two minor league players on Thursday. The Mariners sent outfielder Abaraham Almonte and pitcher Stephen Kohlscheen to the Padres. Denorfia, 34, is batting .242 this year with one home run and 16 RBIs in 89 games. He is a career .275 hitter over his nine years in the majors.
-- The Minnesota Twins extended catcher Kurt Suzuki through the 2016 season, agreeing on a two-year contract, the team announced. Suzuki will make $6 million in both 2015 and 2016. The deal also includes a $6 million vesting option for the 2017 season. Suzuki, 30, has appeared in 89 games for the Twins this season, including 80 games behind the plate. The 2014 All-Star is hitting .304 (93-for-306) with 19 doubles, 41 RBIs, 26 runs scored, 29 walks and a .367 on-base percentage, including a .313 batting average with runners in scoring position.
August Pitchers Report
With the Major League Baseball trade deadline having closed and the National Football League preseason whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years.
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
•Mark Buehrle, (11-5, 68.7%) - After a phenomenal start, the Toronto left-hander has returned to career norms, but if the Blue Jays are to make the postseason, Buehrle will have to play a large role. Toronto overall has flourished with the Missouri native on the mound with a 15-7 overall record and a sharp 10-3 when he’s been the favorite.
•Bruce Chen, (12-6, 66.6%) - Chen has only been back in the Kansas City rotations since the end of June and frankly has not been effective. Because the Royals offense runs cold and warm, they are dependent on their starters like Chen to keep them in games. They will need the Chen of August’s past to stay in wild card contention.
•Yovani Gallardo, (12-1, 92.3%) - The Brewers ace has not put up the kind of numbers Milwaukee fans have come to expect. In his last 11 starts he’s just 3-2, but Gallardo has lowered his ERA just over a run, which shows progress. The Brew Crew does not figure to win the division without one of their key elements and they need him to own this month like in the past.
•Zack Greinke, (13-4, 76.4%) - Manager Don Mattingly is receiving just what he needs from his No. 2 pitcher... consistency. What makes Greinke unique is his approach since he has an array of pitches he can throw for strikes. On days maybe when the fastball lacks the usual juice or location is an issue, he can turn to various breaking pitches to get batters out and keep changing speeds to keep them off-balance.
•Cole Hamels, (11-4, 73.3%) - After a slow start coming back from injury, Hamels has been brilliant with a sparking 1.77 ERA in his last 10 assignments. He’s averaging better than a strikeout an inning on the season and has a 1.70 ERA on the road, doing his best on aging team that will be rebuilding go forward.
•Kyle Lohse, (11-4, 73.3%) - Though not the official ace of the Brewers, he’s pitched like one all season. Milwaukee is 15-7 when Lohse takes the ball and they are a gritty 5-2 when installed as underdogs. The Brewer’s right-hander is a bulldog on the road, as he and his teammates are 9-4 away from Miller Park.
•Mike Minor, (10-5, 66.6%) - To say this has not been a good season for Minor is an understatement, as his ERA has risen by 3.5 runs in his last 10 outings and the left-hander has surrendered a head-shaking .393 batting average against lefties no less. Despite Atlanta averaging just 3.9 runs a game, they have scored a full run more in Minor’s 16 assignments, which is why they are .500 when he’s pitched. It’s hard to imagine a quick about face.
•Ervin Santana, (12-5, 70.5%) - This turned out to be a great pickup for Atlanta after suffering heavy losses to its starting staff in the spring. Santana does not overpower opposing hitters, but he’s really kept right-handed batters off balance as they are hitting only .206 against. Santana has always pitched better at home than on the road and be sure to play him this month at Turner Field.
•Max Scherzer, Max (13-4, 76.4%) - Some baseball pundits wondered if Scherzer found lightning in a bottle last season in winning the American League Cy Young Award, but he’s come right back with another solid campaign. Among his strengths is he doesn’t beat himself and has a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also known for his relentless determination, making him tough to bet against.
•James Shields, (13-4, 76.4%) - Shields is a true professional and David Price of Tampa Bay credits him for setting the standard for hard work and enhancing his career. The right-hander might not have the lowest ERA or flashiest numbers, yet he will more often than not hold the opposition to one less run than his team scores, which piles up the W’s.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS
•Roberto Hernandez, (4-8, 33.3%) - Since winning 19 games in 2007, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona is 44-72, had two stints in the minors and is primarily a fifth starter trying to hold on to a big league paycheck (Maybe the Cubs could use him). Whatever name he signs on the back of his paycheck these days is definite play against material here.
•Kevin Correia, (2-10, 16.6%) - Though the Twins soft-tossing starter had a good stretch over seven starts beginning on June 10, the fact of the matter is 5-13 with an ERA of 5.06 this season. (As of 7-31-14) Since this is the fourth different team he’s been a starting pitcher for since 2008, don’t expect any real improvement this month.
•Jeremy Hellickson, (5-11, 31.2%) - Hellickson began the season on the disabled list due to right elbow surgery and has spent most of the season at Double and Triple-A, trying to work his way back to the big league. He made two spot starts in July and it is not guaranteed he will do anything more than that in August.
•Ubaldo Jimenez, (5-12, 29.4%) - Jimenez last pitched for Baltimore on July 5th after suffering a right ankle sprain. He’s scheduled to make two rehab starts in the first part of August before returning to the Orioles. However, the Birds have been playing very good baseball without him and his 3-8 record and 4.52 ERA, thus you have to wonder if he moves back into Buck Showalter’s rotation.
•Paul Maholm, (3-8, 27.2%) - Strictly a reliever and spot starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who has an ERA of almost five and just 34 punch-outs to go along with 27 walks. Maholm throws a wide variety of pitches and with a great range of speeds. His lead pitch is a sinker in the 87–89 mph range. He also throws a four-seam fastball (87–90), changeup (80–83), cut fastball (83–86), slider (79–82), and curveball (70–75).
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Phillies-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Hernandez is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.
--Fister is 4-0, 2.36 in his last four starts.
--Phillies lost ten of their last sixteen games.
--Washington won nine of its last thirteen home games.
--Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Fister starts.
•Reds-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Latos is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.
--Turner is 2-0, 2.53 in his last two starts; he finished sixth inning in only four of his eleven starts.
--Cincinnati lost 10 of its last 13 games.
--Marlins won nine of their last twelve games.
--Five of last six Latos starts stayed under the total.
•Giants-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Vogelsong is 0-5, 4.28 in his last six starts; Giants were shut out in four of his last five starts.
--Niese is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
--San Francisco lost six of its last seven games.
--Mets won six of their last nine games.
--Under is 5-1 in last six Vogelsong starts.
•Brewers-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Peralta is 3-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
--Wainwright is 4-2, 1.60 in his last eight starts.
--Milwaukee lost four of last five road games.
--Cardinals lost six of their last nine games.
--Six of last eight Peralta starts went over the total.
•Pirates-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Volquez is 0-1, 8.10 in his last couple starts.
--Nuno is 0-2, 6.06 in his last three starts.
--Pirates lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
--Arizona won six of its last eight home games.
--Last four Volquez road starts went over the total.
•Cubs-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Hendricks is 1-1, 2.33 in his first three MLB starts.
--Haren is 0-4, 9.47 in his last four starts.
--Cubs lost nine of their last ten road games.
--Dodgers won 15 of its last 20 home games.
--Six of Haren's last eight home starts went over.
•Braves-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Minor is 2-2, 7.09 in his last six starts.
--Stults is 1-8, 5.87 in his last ten starts.
--Atlanta lost seven of its last ten road games.
--San Diego won four of its last five home games.
--Seven of last nine Minor starts went over total.; under is 11-2 in Stults' last 13.
American League
•Mariners-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Elias is 1-0, 1.74 in his last couple starts.
--Chen is 4-0, 2.92 in his last four starts.
--Seattle lost six of its last nine games.
--Baltimore won seven of its last ten games.
--12 of last 14 Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Rangers-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Williams won his first '14 start, allowing one run in six IP.
--Salazar is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
--Rangers lost eight of their last twelve games.
--Cleveland lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Seven of ten Salazar starts went over the total.
•Angels-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Shoemaker is 2-1, 2.89 in his last three starts.
--Hellickson is 0-0, 1.00 in two starts, pitching total of nine innings.
--Angels won 17 of their last 24 games.
--Tampa Bay won nine of 11 games since All-Star break.
--12 of last 16 Angel games stayed under the total.
•Yankees-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Capuano was 1-1, 4.55 in 28 relief appearances for Boston earlier this season; he allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
--Ranaudo is making MLB debut; he was 12-4, 2.41 in 21 AAA starts this year.
--New York lost four of its last five games.
--Red Sox lost eight of their last nine games.
--Five of last six Yankees road games stayed under.
•Blue Jays-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Happ is 1-0, 2.38 in his last couple starts.
--McHugh is 0-6, 5.51 in his last six starts.
--Blue Jays won eleven of their last thirteen games.
--Astros lost nine of their last twelve home games.
--Over is 18-8 in last 26 Houston games.
•Twins-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Darnell allowed seven runs in five IP in his first MLB start.
--Sale is 4-0, 1.16 in his last five starts.
--Minnesota lost nine of its last thirteen games.
--White Sox won five of their last seven games.
--Six of Sale's last eight home starts stayed under.
•Royals-Athletics - 9:35 PM
--Guthrie is 1-3, 8.20 in his last five starts.
--Gray is 5-0, 1.59 in his last five starts.
--Royals won seven of their last nine games.
--Oakland won 15 of its last 18 home games.
--Five of last six Guthrie starts went over the total.
Interleague
•Rockies-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Morales is 0-3, 8.14 in his last four road starts.
--Verlander is 2-2, 5.19 in his last four starts.
--Colorado lost 15 of its last 17 road games.
--Tigers lost five of their last six games.
--Seven of last nine Morales starts stayed under.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hernandez 7-11; Fister 11-3
-- Latos 3-5; Turner 6-5
-- Vogelsong 11-10; Niese 10-9
-- Peralta 12-8; Wainwright 16-5
-- Volquez 11-9; Nuno 0-4
-- Hendricks 2-1; Haren 10-11
-- Minor 8-8; Stults 7-14
-- Elias 10-11; Chen 13-7
-- Williams 1-0; Salazar 5-5
-- Shoemaker 8-3; Hellickson 2-0
-- Capuano 0-1; Ranaudo 0-0
-- Happ 10-5; McHugh 5-10
-- Darnell 0-1; Sale 11-5
-- Guthrie 11-10; Gray 15-6
-- Morales 6-9; Verlander 12-9
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Washington’s right-hand starter Doug Fister is 8-0 in his last eight home team starts, including 5-0 with a 2.31 ERA this season. Fister (10-2, 2.69 ERA) will look to slow the Phillies' offense on Friday night. He won his fourth consecutive start Monday while giving up three hits in seven scoreless innings of a 4-2 victory over Cincinnati. He's allowed three runs or fewer in his last six assignments, and will be making his first start at Nationals Park since July 2.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•SEATTLE is 13-4 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 4.8, OPPONENT 3.5.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 10-0 OVER (+10.2 Units) versus an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5.
•BALTIMORE is 21-4 (+17.8 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
•EDINSON VOLQUEZ is 14-2 (+14.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOLQUEZ 5.2, OPPONENT 3.3.
•JEREMY HELLICKSON is 18-4 UNDER (+13.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HELLICKSON 2.8, OPPONENT 3.3.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 30-9 (+20.5 Units) against the run line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.5.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (National League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(54-5 since 1997.) (91.5%, +43.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 2.5 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +8.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-2, +19.3 units).
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (PHILADELPHIA) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (National League) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(51-19 since 1997.) (72.9%, +32.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-33)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: +101
The average score in these games was: Team 3.8, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +0)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 37 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-11, +23.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-17, +27.3 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(142-82 since 1997.) (63.4%, +56.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-104.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 4.7 (Total runs scored = 9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 113 (50.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-7, +4.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (52-35, +15 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (87-53, +31.2 units).
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