MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
It's pretty good stuff to be sitting here in late July with 12 of the 15 series this weekend having major importance on how the season will shape up. October hopes and dreams are still alive for several teams, and it will be fun to watch whether they make it happen or they falter down the stretch.
Look at Tampa Bay, sitting 7.5 games back in the AL East and given up for dead a month ago, now playing some of the best ball in the AL as they ride a seven-game win streak. They get the Red Sox on a three-game losing streak visiting tonight. Even though the Rays are playing great, they don't know whether they are buyers or sellers right now, which makes the pitching matchup between Jon Lester and David Price something like a claiming race.
The last time Price faced the Red Sox on May 30, he beaned David Ortiz, which helped incite a bench-clearing brawl later in the game. Price has been in a zone lately. The Rays have won his past five starts, and he hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four outings. Ortiz is not expected to play tonight. Price is a -139 favorite.
The AL East looks more vulnerable than ever, which is why the Rays might need a team to mortgage its future to deal Price. But Lester might be available for cheaper.
The division battle keeps raging with the Yankees and Blue Jays – who are tied for second, three games behind the Orioles – hooking up, both riding three-game win streaks. Baltimore is out west playing the Mariners, who have been struggling lately, but have Felix Hernandez on the mound tonight as a -190 favorite.
Chances look good for two of the contending teams, such as the Rays and Yankees, to pick up a game on Baltimore tonight. Price is rolling, but the better bet may be laying -130 with Hiroki Kuroda against Mark Buehrle. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three home starts against Toronto, including beating Buehrle twice, but that isn't even the best part of this international rivalry.
The Yankees have won 16 straight home games against the Blue Jays. What might even be more remarkable is that Buehrle is 1-11 in 18 starts against the Yankees. His teams have lost all seven of his outings at the current Yankee Stadium. Needless to say, Toronto is carrying a lot of baggage in this one, and it's better to kick a team when it’s down than wager that they'll do something for the first time in ages.
Perhaps the most anticipated of this weekend’s series is the Dodgers at San Francisco for a three-game set. The Giants have won seven out of 10 against L.A. so far this season, but manager Don Mattingly is trying to make a statement this weekend, as his squad is 1.5 games behind in the NL West.
You may have been wondering why Dan Haren, with his penchant for serving up home runs, would get the first start after the All-Star break. The sole reason was so Mattingly could send his best to beat the hated Giants in this series. After Zack Greinke tonight, the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw tomorrow and then Hyun-jin Ryu, while the Giants are on the back end of their rotation.
With the intensity of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry dwindling in their recent meetings, this NorCal/SoCal civil war is the best thing going in baseball. The two teams don't like each other, and the two groups of fans hate almost everything the other city represents. It's a beautiful thing to watch.
Yasiel Puig was hit on the hand Saturday and hasn't started in any game since, but he should be available tonight, especially since he feasts on Tim Lincecum pitching, going 5-for-10 against him in Puig's two seasons in the majors. Hanley Ramirez was hit twice on Sunday, the last one on his hand, and he's been out ever since and is not likely to play tonight.
Lincecum has learned to deal with losing some of the pace off his fastball and has a 4-1 record with a 0.96 ERA over his past five starts. He even collected his first career save in Tuesday's extra-inning game at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers have lost four of six on their current nine-game road trip, but are a -124 favorite behind Greinke tonight. Let's roll with the Dodgers in this one.
Friday's selections:
Yankees (Kuroda) -130 vs Blue Jays (7:05 p.m. ET)
Reds (Simon) +110 vs Nationals (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rays (Price) -135 vs Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)
Pirates (Morton) -119 at Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET)
Dodgers (Greinke) -124 at Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)