STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, JULY 25TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#915 TORONTO @ #916 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Blue Jays LH Mark Buehrle (10-6, 2.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.300) - Buehrle began the season 10-1 in his first 12 outings and has since gone winless in his last eight turns. Poor run support can be blamed for some of that but the offense actually bailed out the veteran when he allowed five runs in six innings on Sunday and ended up without a decision. Buehrle is 0-1 in two starts against New York this season, yielding a total of seven runs in 12 2/3 innings.
--KEY STAT: BUEHRLE is 11-3 (+8.1 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 6.1, OPPONENT 3.8.
--BUEHRLE is 13-23 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 4.3, OPPONENT 4.6.
--BUEHRLE is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 3.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
•Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (6-6, 3.88 ERA, WHIP: 1.187) - Kuroda is the last man left standing from the Yankees’ opening day rotation and is coming off back-to-back quality starts. The Japan native surrendered an unearned run on three hits in 6 2/3 innings against Cincinnati on Sunday but was held out of the decision in a game New York went on to win 3-2. Kuroda picked up a win at Toronto on June 25, allowing three runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 frames.
--KEY STAT: KURODA is 13-23 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.0, OPPONENT 4.3.
--KURODA is 21-3 UNDER (+17.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.8, OPPONENT 3.4.
--KURODA is 22-9 UNDER (+11.6 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
#917 BOSTON @ #918 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Red Sox LH Jon Lester (10-7, 2.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.117) - Lester and Boston management can’t seem to get on the same page during contract negotiations but it has yet to effect him on the field. The free agent-to-be has allowed a total of five earned runs in his last seven starts and struck out eight over eight scoreless innings to earn a win over Kansas City on Sunday. Lester dominated Tampa Bay in the latest matchup on June 1, fanning 12 in seven scoreless frames.
--KEY STAT: LESTER is 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 5.0, OPPONENT 2.5.
--LESTER is 19-7 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
--LESTER is 19-7 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.1, OPPONENT 4.0.
•Rays LH David Price (10-7, 3.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.041) - Price has been just as effective of late and has won his last five starts, including eight scoreless innings in each of the last two. The one blemish on Price’s season line is 19 home runs allowed, though he managed to keep his last two opponents in the park. The former Cy Young winner went seven innings in that controversial start at Boston on May 30, allowing a pair of runs without factoring in the decision.
--KEY STAT: PRICE is 27-11 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.0.
--PRICE is 33-11 UNDER (+20.3 Units) in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 3.4, OPPONENT 3.2.
--PRICE is 29-12 UNDER (+15.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.0.
#919 OAKLAND @ #920 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Athletics RH Jason Hammel (8-7, 3.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.107) - Hammel dropped his second straight outing since being acquired from the Chicago Cubs and failed to pitch at least five innings for the first time this season. The 31-year-old allowed five runs on six hits in two frames en route to an 8-4 setback to Baltimore on Saturday. Hammel has surrendered eight homers in his last seven outings after permitting five in his previous 12.
--KEY STAT: HAMMEL is 9-21 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 3.0, OPPONENT 5.1.
--HAMMEL is 7-0 OVER (+7.3 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 5.3, OPPONENT 3.8.
•Rangers RH Jerome Williams (1-4, 6.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.572) - Williams is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Round Rock to start the series opener while fellow right-hander Nick Tepesch will be pushed back to Saturday. Signed to a minor-league contract on July 11, Williams made 26 appearances out of the bullpen for the Astros while going 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts for the Express. The 32-year-old owns a 4-5 career mark with a 4.19 ERA in 16 career appearances (nine starts) against the Athletics.
#921 CHI WHITE SOX @ #922 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•White Sox LH John Danks (8-6, 4.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.419) - Danks has won five of his last six decisions but is coming off a rocky no-decision Sunday against Houston, which got to him for seven runs and a season-high 12 hits in 4 1/3 innings. That was his worst start since he gave up six runs on 10 hits and four walks in just five innings at Minnesota on June 22. The rough outing versus the Twins left the 29-year-old Danks with a 1-4 record and a 7.50 ERA in six career starts at Target Field.
--KEY STAT: DANKS is 3-16 (-14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.6.
--DANKS is 4-17 (-12.6 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.7, OPPONENT 5.4.
--DANKS is 8-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9.
--DANKS is 5-14 against the run line (-13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.6.
--DANKS is 6-20 against the run line (-18.3 Units) when playing on Friday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DANKS 3.6, OPPONENT 6.4.
•Twins RH Kevin Correia (5-12, 4.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.456) - Correia has an American League-leading 12 losses after giving up four runs and seven hits in four innings of a 5-3 defeat to Tampa Bay on Sunday. That broke a string of seven straight starts in which the veteran had lasted at least six innings, a span that saw him post a solid 2.30 ERA. Included in that stretch was a solid outing against the White Sox on June 21, when Correia let up one earned run in six innings to improve to 3-2 with a 2.93 mark in his career versus Chicago.
--KEY STAT: CORREIA is 6-22 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 2.8, OPPONENT 5.0.
--CORREIA is 24-10 UNDER (+13.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
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#923 CLEVELAND @ #924 KANSAS CITY - 8:10 PM
•Indians RH Josh Tomlin (5-7, 4.43 ERA, WHIP: 1.181) - Save for an 11-strikeout performance at Seattle on June 28 in the first shutout of his career, Tomlin has struggled over his last seven starts, going 1-5 while surrendering at least four runs six times. The 29-year-old lasted only 4 1/3 innings at Detroit on Sunday, yielding four runs and six hits en route to his second straight loss. Tomlin fell to 5-3 in 11 career games (nine starts) against Kansas City on July 4, when he was reached for five runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 frames.
--KEY STAT: TOMLIN is 4-12 against the run line (-13.7 Units) in road games after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was TOMLIN 4.9, OPPONENT 6.1.
•Royals RH Yordano Ventura (7-8, 3.59 ERA, WHIP: 1.328) - Ventura had his modest two-game winning streak snapped Sunday as he gave up six runs and nine hits over 4 1/3 innings of a loss at Boston. The 23-year-old Dominican, who failed to record a strikeout for the first time in 22 major-league games (21 starts), yielded fewer than four runs in six of his seven starts prior to facing the Red Sox. Ventura won both of his career decisions against the Indians, allowing one run over seven frames at home on June 11 and besting Tomlin by yielding one in 8 1/3 innings at Cleveland on July 4.
#925 DETROIT @ #926 LA ANGELS - 10:05 PM
•Tigers LH Drew Smyly (6-8, 3.80 ERA, WHIP: 1.331) - Smyly is coming off a strong performance against Cleveland on Sunday in which he allowed one run and four hits over seven innings. It ended a rough three-start stretch for the 25-year-old, who went 1-2 while yielding at least four runs in each outing. Smyly lost his only career decision against Los Angeles on April 18, when he surrendered four runs and six hits over three frames.
•Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (5-5, 4.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.256) - Skaggs escaped with a no-decision against Seattle on Sunday after allowing five runs and eight hits over 6 2/3 innings. The 23-year-old managed to snap his four-game losing streak in his previous start despite being even worse as he was tagged for six runs and seven hits in five frames of a 10-7 triumph at Texas. Skaggs, who never has faced Detroit, is 1-2 with a 5.69 ERA in eight home starts this season - his first in the American League after spending his first two major-league campaigns with Arizona.
--KEY STAT: SKAGGS is 11-3 OVER (+8.2 Units) when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SKAGGS 4.6, OPPONENT 5.7.
#927 BALTIMORE @ #928 SEATTLE - 10:10 PM
•Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (4-3, 4.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.394) - Gausman gave up five runs for the second time in four outings when he was touched for nine hits in four-plus innings in Sunday’s loss to Oakland. He allowed just one run and four hits in each of his two other starts during the stretch. Gausman has never faced Seattle and is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in three road starts this season.
•Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (11-2, 2.02 ERA, WHIP: 0.899) - Hernandez leads the American League in ERA and allowed one unearned run and two hits in seven innings in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels in his last turn. He has allowed four or fewer hits in six of his last eight outings. Hernandez is 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 career starts against Baltimore.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 7-20 against the run line (-15.1 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.3, OPPONENT 4.3.
--HERNANDEZ is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.3, OPPONENT 3.7.
Interleague
#929 MIAMI @ #930 HOUSTON - 8:10 PM
•Marlins LH Brad Hand (1-2, 4.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.641) - Hand has been effective since sliding back into the starting rotation at the start of July, posting a 3.22 ERA in four starts and getting his first victory of the season Sunday against San Francisco. He allowed two runs on six hits in seven innings against the Giants, and has not surrendered more than three earned runs in his past four starts. Hand, who makes his seventh start of the season, posted a 4.58 ERA in 14 relief appearances.
•Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (9-6, 3.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.255) - Keuchel was 8-3 with a 2.38 ERA in mid-June, but has struggled in going 1-3 in his past five starts. He gave up four runs (three earned) on 12 hits in five innings Saturday against the White Sox, and has posted a 6.07 ERA with 48 hits allowed in 29 2/3 innings during his past five outings. Opponents are hitting .387 against Keuchel since June 12 with a .947 OPS.
--KEY STAT: KEUCHEL is 20-7 against the run line (+12.7 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.6, OPPONENT 4.1.
--KEUCHEL is 19-8 against the run line (+11.3 Units) in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.9, OPPONENT 4.7.
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