Kevin's Pick(s):
Free pick Friday and I remembered this time
... have a good weekend guys, and lets kick it off with a few winners.
2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - CARDINALS TO WIN (-142) *AFTERNOON GAME*
Listed Pitchers: Kelly vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.41 units)
This afternoon the Cubbies will host the Cardinals for their 10th meeting of the season. So far the Cardinals hold a 5-4 edge in their meetings. St Louis is 54-47 on the year and 25-24 on the road, but enter today's game losers of three straight. They have won 4 of their last 8 overall though. The Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 games and are sitting at 41-59 on the year and 21-24 at home. Joe Kelly will take the mound for St Louis and he is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA, .265 BA and 1.30 WHIP over 5 starts this year. He was on the DL and had a rough first start back, but his latest start was 7 innings vs the Dodgers giving up just 4 hits and 1 earned run. Kelly loves playing against the Cubs as he has a career 2.19 ERA, .217 OBA and 1.03 WHIP vs Chicago. He gave up just 1 earned run vs them over 6 innings in his lone start against them this season. Travis Wood will be on the mound for Chicago and he is 7-9 on the season with a 5.12 ERA, .274 OBA and 1.53 WHIP. He pitches much better at home, but in four July starts he has a 7.97 ERA with batters hitting .349 against him. He has had one good and one poor outing vs St Louis this year, but his career ERA vs the Cardinals is 4.99 with a .290 OBA and 1.42 WHIP. Note that the Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 as a road favorite, 14-6 in Kelly's last 20 road starts and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite. The Cubs are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall, 1-10 in their last 11 as an underdog, and 7-18 in Wood's last 25 starts as a home underdog. St Louis has won 10 of their last 14 meetings with Chicago and I expect another win this afternoon.
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Hahn vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Tonight's match up in Atlanta will feature two solid young pitchers. The Padres will have Jesse Hahn on the mound who is having a great start to his MLB career with a 5-2 record, 2.21 ERA, .185 OBA and 1.06 WHIP over his first 7 starts. In three road starts he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, .129 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. The Braves will counter with lefty Alex Wood who is 7-7 on the year with a 3.24 ERA, .243 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. He has been even better at home with a 2.51 ERA, .223 OBA and 1.02 WHIP. Take note that the UNDER is 21-6-3 in the Padres last 30 road games vs a left handed starter, and 34-12-5 in their last 51 vs a left handed starter overall. The UNDER is also 35-16-1 in the Padres last 52 overall and 38-18-3 in their last 59 road games. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Braves last 8 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 13-6-1 in Wood's last 20 starts overall and 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. These two teams haven't met this year yet but the the UNDER is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings and 21-5-2 in their last 28 meetings in Atlanta. Take the UNDER in what should be a low scoring ball game.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Roark vs. Simon
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
I didn't like the board yesterday, but I like a play today. Trying to build off the winner on Wednesday lets go after another to start the weekend off with.
Alfredo Simon figured to be a decent cog in the Reds' rotation this season after injuries have him a chance at the majors. He took the chance and parlayed it into an All-Star start to the season. He's been a bright spot, along with Cueto, in an otherwise disappointing year for the Reds. Not due to their own fault because injuries have ravaged them all over the place. They have now lost six straight games and 2-8 their last 10. The problem is accredited to their offense. Again it is the injuries here. The Reds are without Joey Votto, Brandon Philips, and Zack Cozart is questionable for tonight's game. Cozart isn't as important, but Votto and Philips is the meat of their offense. It certainly has showed, as the Reds have scored only 9 runs in their last five games, 1.8 runs per game. The UNDER went 5-1 their last six. Simon has been strong, though, entering Friday night with a 2.74 ERA, 2.37 in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in five starts. The last start he had it rough was when Simon gave up 5 to the Angels ten starts ago on May 27th. Consistency is really the name of the game for Simon, bringing a strong 1.05 WHIP and .276 OBP. Simon will be up against another up and comer, Tanner Roark. Roark has been hot as well, giving up just a run each in his last two starts. He went for a 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .268 his last three starts. Note the 4.04 away ERA, but however, his WHIP is still low on the road at 1.08. The majority of the runs he's allowed away from home have been home runs, but the Reds have no pop in that lineup to take advantage of it. Also, Roark has allowed only 2 home runs in his past eight starts. His most recent road starts have been impressive: 0 ER Padres, 2 ER Giants, 4 ER Cubs, and 1 ER Phillies. 4 against the Cubs isn't impressive mind you, but that can be a difficult place to pitch when the weather conditions are right. I expect a strong start against a team that has no offense and has hit righties at just a .192 clip in the Reds last ten matchups. Both pitchers should keep the runs to a minimum, so the UNDER 7.5 looks good here.
Cheers,
Kevin
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