SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +1.11 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Jake Peavy remembers the National League very well indeed. That’s the league he dominated for years and a trip back to Wrigley Field to face the feeble-hitting Cubs can only bring back good memories for Peavy. He’ll be ready and so will the South Side. Jake Peavy (74 BPV, 4-4-3-3-4 PQS) suffered through a horrible April (7.85 ERA) but has done a great job of turning it around since then. His command has been way sharper, he posted a 3.07 xERA, and 155 BPV in May and it sure doesn’t hurt that the White Sox may have woke up. They’ve now won three of its last four while putting up a 15 and 8 spot in two of those games. As for the Cubbies, well, things are going from bad to worse. They’ve lost four series in a row to St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee. The latter three are not easy to lose to, yet the Cubs pulled it off with flying colors. The Astros smacked around Randy Wells in his last start. He has just three quality starts over his last eight outings and three starts ago he failed to record a single out against the Cards. The league is hitting .290 off him and now there’s the added pressure of knowing that his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, as Tom Gorzelanny waits. Wells has five K’s in his last three starts and hasn’t been fooling anyone for weeks. The South Side plus anything here is a no-brainer. Play: Chicago +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.60 over NY YANKEES (1st 5 innings)
The price here has heavy influence on this choice but there’s no denying that the Yanks are hugely overvalued here. For one, the Astros are playing some pretty good ball right now and are coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado. They’ve now won eight of 10 and Brett Myers has been one of the NL’s best pitchers. Myers has an ERA of 3.01. On the road his BAA is .238. He has 65 K’s in 80 frames and most importantly Myers has a 49% GB rate, which is one of the best in the league. At the new Yankee Stadium against this team, that’s big and should come in very handy. Andy Pettitte is having an outstanding year and you can’t help but root for this guy. However, he’s very capable of allowing runs, especially at home here he’s had a couple of tough outings. When you consider the way the Astros are playing, the excitement of playing on baseball’s biggest stage and then throw in this massive tag, this risk has to be one worth taking. Since this is largely based on the starter’s we’ll play it in five. Play Houston +2.60 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.25 over SAN DIEGO
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M’s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. Geoff Baker, who blogs the Mariners for the Seattle Times, wrote the following after last night’s loss: “Not much more to say about this 12-3 loss by the Mariners. They are now 10 games out. For me, it's about next year now. I'm not going to get bent out of shape analyzing details of this game. It was the worst one the team has played all season. The players embarrassed themselves and the city”. One has to figure that the Mariners have “had enough” and will at least put forth a strong effort. More than that, however, is the situation. The Padres played a double-header yesterday and will travel across the country back home for the start of this series. Physically, that’s a tough challenge and it’s not like they’re ripping it up either. In fact, the Padres have hit a combined .164 over its last four games. Kevin Correia might be the Padres worst starter and his 5.03 ERA will confirm that. Correia also has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts and the fact is, he’s very beatable. Jason Vargas throws strikes and has a BAA of just .223 over 70 IP. He has a 4-2 record and a 3.06 ERA. The M’s have actually won three of his last four starts against Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota and he surely is not facing a tougher line-up here. Play: Seattle +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.51 over CINCINNATI
The Royals are a dangerous team in that they can score a lot of runs and that makes wagering against them very risky when you’re laying significant juice. The Royals are third in the AL in team BA just behind the Yanks and Rangers. Bronson Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s really been enjoying some good fortune that cannot last. Arroyo is 4-1 over his last six starts with a 3.37 ERA, however, his BPV over that same stretch is a lousy 3 (see bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS). There is no doubt whatsoever that an implosion is forthcoming, as Arroyo remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and certainly on this staff. He simply cannot be trusted as this big a favorite over a strong hitting AL squad. Luke Hochevar seems to have turned a corner over his last five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and while the Reds are dangerous and this park is tough on pitchers, Hochevar has a better chance of Arroyo than coming up with a good game. The tag in this one seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.11 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Jake Peavy remembers the National League very well indeed. That’s the league he dominated for years and a trip back to Wrigley Field to face the feeble-hitting Cubs can only bring back good memories for Peavy. He’ll be ready and so will the South Side. Jake Peavy (74 BPV, 4-4-3-3-4 PQS) suffered through a horrible April (7.85 ERA) but has done a great job of turning it around since then. His command has been way sharper, he posted a 3.07 xERA, and 155 BPV in May and it sure doesn’t hurt that the White Sox may have woke up. They’ve now won three of its last four while putting up a 15 and 8 spot in two of those games. As for the Cubbies, well, things are going from bad to worse. They’ve lost four series in a row to St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee. The latter three are not easy to lose to, yet the Cubs pulled it off with flying colors. The Astros smacked around Randy Wells in his last start. He has just three quality starts over his last eight outings and three starts ago he failed to record a single out against the Cards. The league is hitting .290 off him and now there’s the added pressure of knowing that his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, as Tom Gorzelanny waits. Wells has five K’s in his last three starts and hasn’t been fooling anyone for weeks. The South Side plus anything here is a no-brainer. Play: Chicago +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.60 over NY YANKEES (1st 5 innings)
The price here has heavy influence on this choice but there’s no denying that the Yanks are hugely overvalued here. For one, the Astros are playing some pretty good ball right now and are coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado. They’ve now won eight of 10 and Brett Myers has been one of the NL’s best pitchers. Myers has an ERA of 3.01. On the road his BAA is .238. He has 65 K’s in 80 frames and most importantly Myers has a 49% GB rate, which is one of the best in the league. At the new Yankee Stadium against this team, that’s big and should come in very handy. Andy Pettitte is having an outstanding year and you can’t help but root for this guy. However, he’s very capable of allowing runs, especially at home here he’s had a couple of tough outings. When you consider the way the Astros are playing, the excitement of playing on baseball’s biggest stage and then throw in this massive tag, this risk has to be one worth taking. Since this is largely based on the starter’s we’ll play it in five. Play Houston +2.60 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.25 over SAN DIEGO
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M’s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. Geoff Baker, who blogs the Mariners for the Seattle Times, wrote the following after last night’s loss: “Not much more to say about this 12-3 loss by the Mariners. They are now 10 games out. For me, it's about next year now. I'm not going to get bent out of shape analyzing details of this game. It was the worst one the team has played all season. The players embarrassed themselves and the city”. One has to figure that the Mariners have “had enough” and will at least put forth a strong effort. More than that, however, is the situation. The Padres played a double-header yesterday and will travel across the country back home for the start of this series. Physically, that’s a tough challenge and it’s not like they’re ripping it up either. In fact, the Padres have hit a combined .164 over its last four games. Kevin Correia might be the Padres worst starter and his 5.03 ERA will confirm that. Correia also has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts and the fact is, he’s very beatable. Jason Vargas throws strikes and has a BAA of just .223 over 70 IP. He has a 4-2 record and a 3.06 ERA. The M’s have actually won three of his last four starts against Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota and he surely is not facing a tougher line-up here. Play: Seattle +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.51 over CINCINNATI
The Royals are a dangerous team in that they can score a lot of runs and that makes wagering against them very risky when you’re laying significant juice. The Royals are third in the AL in team BA just behind the Yanks and Rangers. Bronson Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s really been enjoying some good fortune that cannot last. Arroyo is 4-1 over his last six starts with a 3.37 ERA, however, his BPV over that same stretch is a lousy 3 (see bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS). There is no doubt whatsoever that an implosion is forthcoming, as Arroyo remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and certainly on this staff. He simply cannot be trusted as this big a favorite over a strong hitting AL squad. Luke Hochevar seems to have turned a corner over his last five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and while the Reds are dangerous and this park is tough on pitchers, Hochevar has a better chance of Arroyo than coming up with a good game. The tag in this one seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Trace Adams Friday's Selection My 2000♦ One-and-Only Interleague Game of the Year is a relese on the Washington Nationals with Atilano over the Cleveland Indians with Westbrook. As I type this anatlysis, the Nats are a small road dog. Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.
Here we go boys, breakeng out the big guns tonight and backing the Nationals as they look for their 4th win in a row.
I don't know if you watched Strasburg make his ML debut the other night, but his start has definitely energized this Washington team. The Nats are a pretty solid team, and the middle of the lineup with Dunn, Zimmerman, and Willingham is certainly capable of puttting some runs up on the board in Cleveland tonight.
Indians starter Jake Westbrook has had some nice turns over his last few starts, but his last start was rather ugly, as he allowed 6 runs in just 5 innings of work against the White Sox. For the season, Westbrook is 0-1 at home in 4 starts, and has an ERA that stands at 5.56. Believe me, Washington will hit this guy.
Luis Atilano has been a find for the Nats, and catcher Pudge Rodriguez surely knows this ball park from his AL days, so expect Pudge to guide Atilano through the foreign terrain. Atilano has gone a perfect 4-0 on the road this year, and has a road ERA of just 3.18.
Cleveland showed some fire in their series with Boston (especially last night!), but the fact remains, this Indians team has won just 10 times against 16 losees at home for the year.
As I said, Washington has a pep in their step since Strasburg joined the team, and their winning streak hits 4 in a row with the win tonight.
Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.:modemman:
SUPER SPORTS GROUP
Houston v. NY 7:05pm
PICK: UNDER 8.5 Game ev (7*)
NY v. Baltimore 7:05pm
PICK: Mets ML +103 Game (8*)
Washington v. Cleveland 7:05pm
PICK: Indians RL (-1.5) +160 Game (9*) Best bet of the day
Florida v. Tampa Bay 7:10pm
PICK: Marlins ML +165 Game (7*)
Philadelphia v. Boston 7:10pm
PICK: Under 10 Game -105 (8*)
Toronto v. Colorado 9:10pm
PICK: Rockies RL (-1.5) +125 (9*) Best bet of the day
Houston v. NY 7:05pm
PICK: UNDER 8.5 Game ev (7*)
NY v. Baltimore 7:05pm
PICK: Mets ML +103 Game (8*)
Washington v. Cleveland 7:05pm
PICK: Indians RL (-1.5) +160 Game (9*) Best bet of the day
Florida v. Tampa Bay 7:10pm
PICK: Marlins ML +165 Game (7*)
Philadelphia v. Boston 7:10pm
PICK: Under 10 Game -105 (8*)
Toronto v. Colorado 9:10pm
PICK: Rockies RL (-1.5) +125 (9*) Best bet of the day
CAJUN SPORTS
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -127 Minnesota Twins Play Title: Cajuns MLB IL 5* Game of the Month Winner 20-2
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This weekend’s baseball action will consist of Interleague play with the exception of one NL series. Our focus for Friday’s card is on the Braves-Twins series where Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta’s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Minnesota Twins 4 Atlanta Braves 2
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -127 Minnesota Twins Play Title: Cajuns MLB IL 5* Game of the Month Winner 20-2
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This weekend’s baseball action will consist of Interleague play with the exception of one NL series. Our focus for Friday’s card is on the Braves-Twins series where Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta’s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Minnesota Twins 4 Atlanta Braves 2
VEGAS RUNNER
MORNING MOVES
So let’s go ahead and kick off the 2010 WORLD CUP…with some “Future Bets”…
TO WIN 2010 WORLD CUP :
1.) BRAZIL +450.…(3 UNITS)
2.) SPAIN +400.…(2 UNITS)
3.) NETHERLANDS +1000.…(1 UNIT)
** MLB MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
INDIANS -125....(2*)....WESTBROOK over Atilano
MORNING MOVES
So let’s go ahead and kick off the 2010 WORLD CUP…with some “Future Bets”…
TO WIN 2010 WORLD CUP :
1.) BRAZIL +450.…(3 UNITS)
2.) SPAIN +400.…(2 UNITS)
3.) NETHERLANDS +1000.…(1 UNIT)
** MLB MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
INDIANS -125....(2*)....WESTBROOK over Atilano
JOHN RYAN
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -113 Baltimore Orioles Play Title: Baltimore
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Mets in inter-league action set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Orioles will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-28 making 26.5 units for 66% winners since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season and where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season. Mets are just 19-53 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons; 3-21 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons; 8-29 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 16-9 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Mets are batting just 233 with a horrid 297 OBP in 26 road games this season. Bull has struggled in those road games posting a 5.51 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. Since Dickey went 6 shutout innings at Philadelphia his last two starts have been shaky at best. He has allowed 16 hits and 7 ER in 13.3 innings spanning those two starts. Guthrie is a vastly under rated starter and flies under the radar simply because he is in Baltimore. He has posted a 3.71 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He has pitched at least 6 full innings in 7 straight starts and we have no doubt that this will be a 7+ inning gem. Guthrie has an excellent 2-seamer and a top rated slider that he can throw for a first pitch strike or use as his out pitch. His FB has enough movement on it that he can even throw it when behind in the count and the batter sitting on that pitch. He has been very dominating to RH batters allowing a 191 BA on the season. Mets starter Dickey throws knuckle ball 67% of the time and FB the other third. Hitters are batting 303 on that FB and even the knuckle ball is that all that effective with hitters batting 284. In addition 20% of his pitches are low and away and that allows batters to look that way and take the pitch opposite field. Given that his FB is not all that dominating he is not going to fool many hitters with the FB and given that it will be low and away makes it that much easier to rope. Take Baltimore.
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -113 Baltimore Orioles Play Title: Baltimore
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Mets in inter-league action set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Orioles will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-28 making 26.5 units for 66% winners since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season and where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season. Mets are just 19-53 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons; 3-21 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons; 8-29 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 16-9 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Mets are batting just 233 with a horrid 297 OBP in 26 road games this season. Bull has struggled in those road games posting a 5.51 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. Since Dickey went 6 shutout innings at Philadelphia his last two starts have been shaky at best. He has allowed 16 hits and 7 ER in 13.3 innings spanning those two starts. Guthrie is a vastly under rated starter and flies under the radar simply because he is in Baltimore. He has posted a 3.71 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He has pitched at least 6 full innings in 7 straight starts and we have no doubt that this will be a 7+ inning gem. Guthrie has an excellent 2-seamer and a top rated slider that he can throw for a first pitch strike or use as his out pitch. His FB has enough movement on it that he can even throw it when behind in the count and the batter sitting on that pitch. He has been very dominating to RH batters allowing a 191 BA on the season. Mets starter Dickey throws knuckle ball 67% of the time and FB the other third. Hitters are batting 303 on that FB and even the knuckle ball is that all that effective with hitters batting 284. In addition 20% of his pitches are low and away and that allows batters to look that way and take the pitch opposite field. Given that his FB is not all that dominating he is not going to fool many hitters with the FB and given that it will be low and away makes it that much easier to rope. Take Baltimore.
RJ ROBBINS
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 6.5/-115 Over Play Title: Friday's MLB Over/Under Winner
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New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -113 Baltimore Orioles Play Title: Friday's 'Handcuff' MLB Winner
No Analysis
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 6.5/-115 Over Play Title: Friday's MLB Over/Under Winner
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New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -113 Baltimore Orioles Play Title: Friday's 'Handcuff' MLB Winner
No Analysis
