jeff benton friday
1-0 YESTERDAY..HE WON IS 60 DIME PLAY ON THE CELTICS..HE ONCE AGAIN NAILS A LARGE PLAY. KINDA ASHAME, HE HITS A 60 DIMER YET HIS OVERALL RECORD IS A SORRY 55-62-3 FOR MINUS 110 DIMES.
Friday's Winners ... 20 Dime: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-1 1/2 runs) ... NOTE: As with all run-line plays, pitchers are automatically specified. So Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) and Gio Gonzalez (Oakland) MUST start this game or this play is VOID!
10 Dime: BALTIMORE ORIOLES ... NOTE: List only Jeremy Guthrie as the Orioles' starting pitcher. If Guthrie does not start, this play is VOID!
Giants (-1½ runs)
Break’s over for the two-time reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner – time for Tim Lincecum to wake up and resume being his dominant self. And I say the wake-up call comes tonight against the A’s, who have been brutal as a road team and whom Lincecum has embarrassed three times in the last two seasons.
First, a word about Lincecum’s recent performances. They haven’t been up to his standards – not by a long shot. He’s given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts, pitching a combined 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA). He doesn’t have a decision in any of those four games, during which the Giants went 1-3. Compare those numbers to Lincecum’s first eight starts when he went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA and San Francisco won seven of those contests (five by multiple runs).
Why is it a good idea to jump back on the Timmy bandwagon tonight? Well, for one thing, Oakland is just 11-17 on the road this year with a .250 team batting average and a 5.27 team ERA. For another thing, Lincecum has blown the A’s away three times in a row. In 2008, he led the Giants to a 1-0 win, scattering five hits and three walks in seven shutout innings. Last year, he pitched two complete games (winning 3-0 and 4-1) against Oakland, yielding just one run, 14 hits and three walks in those 19 innings.
Lincecum’s K/BB ratio in his last three outings against the A’s? 31 whiffs vs. 6 free passes!
Now, obviously, Lincecum can’t do it himself tonight. He’ll need some offensive help, meaning the Giants need to hit Gio Gonzalez, who has been tough most of the season, going 6-3, 3.58 ERA, including 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts. The fourth start during this run was a brilliant 1-0 win over the Giants (Gonzalez gave up just two hits in eight shutout innings).
However, it’s important to note that game was played in Oakland (the A’s – like the Giants – are much better at home than on the road). It’s also important to remind you that Gonzalez pitches left-handed, and San Francisco murders lefties at home (.326 team average, compared with an average below .250 at home against southpaws). One more thing about Gonzalez: He’s been a totally different pitcher when working under the sun (4-0, 1.26 ERA in four day games) as opposed to working at night (2-3, 5.08 ERA in eight starts).
Finally, this is a BIG payback series for the Giants, who got swept by their little Bay Area brother last month, losing three games in Oakland by a combined score of 10-1. Don’t think that won’t be on the players’ minds tonight. Besides, the home team has won seven of nine in this rivalry, and 20 of the last 22 meetings since 2006 have been decided by more than one run (the only exceptions being a pair of 1-0 contests).
Oakland has lost eight of 11 in N.L. ballparks, 14 of 20 as a road underdog, 15 of 21 on the road against right-handed starters and seven of eight when an underdog in interleague play. Conversely, the Giants are on runs of 9-3 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 8-0 when returning from a road trip of 7 or more days and 20-9 when Lincecum works at home.
In the end, I see this as a very low-scoring game, with a rejuvenated and angry Lincecum ensuring that the punchless A’s have the lowest score of all: ZERO! Giants roll by three or more in this one!
Orioles
Never easy to lay chalk with a team that’s lost 19 of its last 24 games and hasn’t won consecutive games in about a month, but I absolutely believe the Orioles provide value tonight. First, they’re coming off a much-needed, confidence-building 4-3 win over the Yankees last night (they jumped ahead 2-1, fell behind 3-2 and rallied back for the victory).
Secondly, they’ve got their best, most consistent pitcher on the mound in Jeremy Guthrie, whose 3-6 record doesn’t do him justice, as he’s posted a 3.71 ERA in his 12 starts, nine of which have been quality outings (he gave up three earned runs or fewer and pitched at least six innings in those nine specific outings). Guthrie has been very strong at home, going 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (he’s surrendered 33 baserunners in 33 innings).
Third, the Mets are a dreadful road team, having won just eight of 26 games as a visitor. Going back to last season, New York is 16-39 on foreign soil. New York’s biggest problem on the road? An inability to hit. The Mets bat just .233 as a team outside of the Big Apple, and that average dips even further against right-handed pitching (.225). Then again, the pitching (5.01 starters ERA; 5.51 bullpen ERA) hasn’t helped the cause on the highway, either.
Bottom line: After running through the A.L. East gauntlet over the past 12 games (six vs. the Yankees; three vs. the Red Sox; three at Toronto), the Orioles finally get to pick on somebody their own size. And considering they’ve won four of their last five interleague home games and five of six when facing right-handed pitching from the N.L. – while the Mets are 2-6 in their last eight interleague contests, all versus the mighty A.L. East – I’ll side with Guthrie and the O’s at this cheap price. After all, there’s no way Baltimore (17-43) is going to play sub-.300 baseball all season – the wins will come, and one comes tonight!