DAVE ESSLER
2* 922 KAN / 921 DET – OVER 7.5
Analysis: IMO this total is simply a reflection of the starting pitchers, and I get that. However, a quick check of how well each offense has fared against said starters and the weather tells me there’s more ways this gets to 8 than not. Kansas City gave up runs last night, used bullpen, and their pen hadn’t been great lately anyways. The Tigers has yesterday off, so they’re bats are rested. In fact, the Tigers have only played four games in the last week, so they’re REALLY rested, and in those four games they hit .294 and scored 29 runs. Over the last week the Royals almost six runs a game, and Porcello has never been the same on the road as he is at home. The Tigers’ bullpen the last week has and ERA of about 6.85, so it’s ALL on Porcello IMO to keep this game low scoring. Shields faced the Tigers in the first game of the year, and they’ve been the only team to get more flyball outs against him than not all season, and are the only team to score more than two earned runs against him this season. Given the situation, I do lean to the Royals a bit, but like the over even better. I doubt this goes to 7, but I suppose it could, so either keep an eye on it or maybe even buy it TO 7?