Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella
Game: Winner at Non Opponent May 3 2014 6:20PM
Prediction: Winner
Reason: Just like former Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2010) and Super Saver (2011), Danza (#4) will be making his 3rd start of his 3 year old season in the Kentucky Derby. Also like Super Saver, Danza is trainer by Todd Pletcher and made his previous start in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I), but while Super Saver finished 3rd, Danza won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths.
Danza broke his maiden in his career debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then immediately jumped into the Saratoga Special, a Grade II stakes race at Saratoga. That was a 6 furlong sprint and he closed fast to finished 3rd, beaten by less than a length by the speedy Corfu. After that race, he was put on the shelf for an 8 month layoff and returned this spring in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in Miami. That was just a prep at 7 furlongs and then Pletcher moved him into his first 2 turn route race in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.
Even though it was Danza's first route, he won the 1 1/8 mile race by more than 4 lengths. Interestingly, he was only .13 seconds slower than the stake race run the race before that same day that was won by multiple-grade I stake winner, Will Take Charge. Will Take Charge is an older 4 year old, who was one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup Classic (Grade I). The runner up to Will Take Charge was Revolutionary, who you may know from finishing 3rd in last year's Kentucky Derby to Orb!
It was no surprise that Danza won the 1 1/8 Arkansas Derby, as his 2 siblings are winners at even longer distances, with his brother, Consider Yourself, winning at 1 3/8 miles in a graded stakes in Britian and his other brother winning this year's Tokoyo Derby at Santa Anita (Southern California) at 1 1/2 miles- both of those wins are longer distances than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. With Danza fresh, and rounding into form for a former Derby-winning trainer like Todd Pletcher, we'll take the BIG PRICE on him this Saturday!
The Play: DANZA (#4) to Win & Place.
Bonus Exactas:
5-Horse Exacta BOX: 4-5-11-16-19
Using Danza (#4), California Chrome (#5), Dance with Fate (#12), Commanding Curve (#17) and Wicked Strong (#20)
NOTE: This is a $20 ticket for a $1 Exacta Box
Exacta Key: Play #4 Danza for first and second with ALL horses (#4 with ALL & ALL with #4)
Note: These are $19 Exacta Keys for a $1 ticket, total cost is $38 for first and second place.
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