SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +1.87 over CHICAGO
The Pirates have dropped five straight and they’re not an easy team to pull the trigger on but the Cubbies might be a worse wager laying 2-1. The Cubbies are average or below average at everything and they’re also 4-6 against lefties. They’ll face one here in Brian Burres, another one of those guys that has suddenly found a little success after switching leagues. Burres pitched for the Orioles and had a very brief stint with the Jays before joining the Pirates. After facing the likes of Boston, the Yanks and Rays, facing teams like Houston, Cincinnati and these Cubs is a huge step down for Burres. He’s now thrown 13 scoreless innings in a row and suddenly his confidence has to be somewhat restored. He features four pitches (curve, slider, change and fastball) and uses them all. His command is an issue and he could potentially get rocked but at this price against this team he’s certainly worth a look. The Pirates are 6-4 against southpaws and they know Tom Gorzelanny as well as anyone. Prior to this season, Gorzelanny posted a 4.71 career ERA and while he has been pitching great, he simply does not win games because of a big lack of run support. Things could easily go his way this afternoon at Wrigley but how can you trust the Cubs as a 2-1 favorite, especially when Gorzelanny must be frustrated and thinks he has to be near perfect to get a win? Play: Pittsburgh +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.32 over SAN FRANCISCO
It’s truly amazing what a win or two can do for a team’s psyche and the Astros surely are feeling much better after sweeping the Cards in St. Louis and winning its fourth in a row. The Astros scored 19 runs in that three game set after scratching and clawing for anything for over a month. Felipe Paulino vs Todd Wellemeyer is a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Giants favor. Wellemeyer might just be in the category of the three worst starting pitchers in the majors. He has a BPV of -31 (see under these write-ups for an explanation of BPV and PQS) and is constantly behind in the count and is seldom under 20 pitches an inning. He’s already walked 20 batters in 28 frames and has also surrendered five jacks. Now he has the added pressure of knowing his team is scuffing badly. The Giants were just swept by the Padres at SBC Park and scored four runs over that three-game set. San Fran batted a combined .183 in that series and has now lost five of six. Paulino is coming on strong over his last two starts with a BPV of 181 and an ERA of 3.46. He has a ton of upside and he also has terrific stuff. Paulino has 19 K’s over his last 13 innings and there is no denying that there is something special and deeply hidden about this guy. If he can solve LHB, look out, as Paulino is most definitely on the verge of something good. He’s 0-5 on the year, which is a crime in itself so hopefully he gets some justice here. Play: Houston +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.16 over BALTIMORE
Justin Masterson is not nearly as bad as his 0-3 record and 5.23 ERA suggests. This guy has been very unfortunate indeed. A close look reveals that Masterson has been coming on recently. His combination of ground balls (55%) and strikeouts is very encouraging over his last two starts and that came against the Twins and Tigers. He’ll take a big step down in class when facing the Orioles and with a BPV of 115 he’s definitely on the verge of his first win of the year. The Indians are also playing a lot better with three wins in four games and even though they lost yesterday they still managed eight hits and three runs off Zach Greinke. Before yesterday they scored 19 runs in its previous three games. Jeremy Guthrie had a strong start to 2010, but has faltered lately with a 5.93 ERA over his last four starts. At Camden Yard, Guthrie is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .318. The O’s own the majors worst record and in no way can they be trusted laying juice. Of course the Tribe can win here. Play: Cleveland +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1½ +1.27 over KANSAS CITY
Mark Buehrle has quietly been one of the more reliable starters in the majors over the last several years and has somehow been pitching under the radar forever. His stock is low right now because of a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.96 but he’s also faced Boston, the Yanks and the Rays in three of his last four starts. Five of his seven starts have come against MIN, NYY, TAM, TEX, and TOR, five of the six highest-scoring teams in the AL. Now he’ll face the Royals, a team that is 1-6 against southpaws and a team that he's 20-9 against in his career. The Royals have dropped seven of its last eight games and things don’t figure to turn around here. The South Side is a lot better than its 14-20 record suggests. They’ve had the toughest schedule in the majors thus far with series against the aforementioned five. Gil Meche is coming off a 128-pitch performance in Texas in which he issued seven walks. He just faced the White Sox 11 days ago and fired a PQS-1, with 5 ER over 5 IP. In three starts at Kaufman Stadium this year, Meche is 0-2 with an ERA of 11.24 and a BAA of .383. Overall, he’s walked 25 batters and struck out 17 and these White Sox hitters are among the most patient in the game. This one has blowout written all over it. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.87 over CHICAGO
The Pirates have dropped five straight and they’re not an easy team to pull the trigger on but the Cubbies might be a worse wager laying 2-1. The Cubbies are average or below average at everything and they’re also 4-6 against lefties. They’ll face one here in Brian Burres, another one of those guys that has suddenly found a little success after switching leagues. Burres pitched for the Orioles and had a very brief stint with the Jays before joining the Pirates. After facing the likes of Boston, the Yanks and Rays, facing teams like Houston, Cincinnati and these Cubs is a huge step down for Burres. He’s now thrown 13 scoreless innings in a row and suddenly his confidence has to be somewhat restored. He features four pitches (curve, slider, change and fastball) and uses them all. His command is an issue and he could potentially get rocked but at this price against this team he’s certainly worth a look. The Pirates are 6-4 against southpaws and they know Tom Gorzelanny as well as anyone. Prior to this season, Gorzelanny posted a 4.71 career ERA and while he has been pitching great, he simply does not win games because of a big lack of run support. Things could easily go his way this afternoon at Wrigley but how can you trust the Cubs as a 2-1 favorite, especially when Gorzelanny must be frustrated and thinks he has to be near perfect to get a win? Play: Pittsburgh +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.32 over SAN FRANCISCO
It’s truly amazing what a win or two can do for a team’s psyche and the Astros surely are feeling much better after sweeping the Cards in St. Louis and winning its fourth in a row. The Astros scored 19 runs in that three game set after scratching and clawing for anything for over a month. Felipe Paulino vs Todd Wellemeyer is a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Giants favor. Wellemeyer might just be in the category of the three worst starting pitchers in the majors. He has a BPV of -31 (see under these write-ups for an explanation of BPV and PQS) and is constantly behind in the count and is seldom under 20 pitches an inning. He’s already walked 20 batters in 28 frames and has also surrendered five jacks. Now he has the added pressure of knowing his team is scuffing badly. The Giants were just swept by the Padres at SBC Park and scored four runs over that three-game set. San Fran batted a combined .183 in that series and has now lost five of six. Paulino is coming on strong over his last two starts with a BPV of 181 and an ERA of 3.46. He has a ton of upside and he also has terrific stuff. Paulino has 19 K’s over his last 13 innings and there is no denying that there is something special and deeply hidden about this guy. If he can solve LHB, look out, as Paulino is most definitely on the verge of something good. He’s 0-5 on the year, which is a crime in itself so hopefully he gets some justice here. Play: Houston +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.16 over BALTIMORE
Justin Masterson is not nearly as bad as his 0-3 record and 5.23 ERA suggests. This guy has been very unfortunate indeed. A close look reveals that Masterson has been coming on recently. His combination of ground balls (55%) and strikeouts is very encouraging over his last two starts and that came against the Twins and Tigers. He’ll take a big step down in class when facing the Orioles and with a BPV of 115 he’s definitely on the verge of his first win of the year. The Indians are also playing a lot better with three wins in four games and even though they lost yesterday they still managed eight hits and three runs off Zach Greinke. Before yesterday they scored 19 runs in its previous three games. Jeremy Guthrie had a strong start to 2010, but has faltered lately with a 5.93 ERA over his last four starts. At Camden Yard, Guthrie is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .318. The O’s own the majors worst record and in no way can they be trusted laying juice. Of course the Tribe can win here. Play: Cleveland +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1½ +1.27 over KANSAS CITY
Mark Buehrle has quietly been one of the more reliable starters in the majors over the last several years and has somehow been pitching under the radar forever. His stock is low right now because of a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.96 but he’s also faced Boston, the Yanks and the Rays in three of his last four starts. Five of his seven starts have come against MIN, NYY, TAM, TEX, and TOR, five of the six highest-scoring teams in the AL. Now he’ll face the Royals, a team that is 1-6 against southpaws and a team that he's 20-9 against in his career. The Royals have dropped seven of its last eight games and things don’t figure to turn around here. The South Side is a lot better than its 14-20 record suggests. They’ve had the toughest schedule in the majors thus far with series against the aforementioned five. Gil Meche is coming off a 128-pitch performance in Texas in which he issued seven walks. He just faced the White Sox 11 days ago and fired a PQS-1, with 5 ER over 5 IP. In three starts at Kaufman Stadium this year, Meche is 0-2 with an ERA of 11.24 and a BAA of .383. Overall, he’s walked 25 batters and struck out 17 and these White Sox hitters are among the most patient in the game. This one has blowout written all over it. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Cokin
Matchup: St Louis at Cincinnati
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) GARCIA, J vs. (R) HARANG, A
Play: Cincinnati (ML +120)
Jaime Garcia has been a revelation so far for the Cardinals. He's come all the way back from arm surgery and has been superb throughout the early going for the Cardinals. But the southpaw is overpriced tonight as he goes against Aaron Harang and the Reds. St. Louis is simply not playing well right now. They aren't hitting and they have not been sharp defensively. As for the Reds, they're on a five-game winning streak and Harang has finally shown signs of recapturing his old form with three straight quality starts. I still give Garcia the edge as far as the pitching goes, but that is overridden by the more important team factors, which clearly favor Cincy right now. Add in the decent home dog odds and it's a spot where the Reds are worth backing.
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Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at San Diego
Time: 10:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) ORTIZ, Ra vs. (R) GARLAND, J
Play: San Diego (ML -135)
Good things don't last forever, and based on the number tonight for the Dodgers-Padres contest, it appears as though stealing value with the underrated Friars is finally coming to an end. That means I'll likely be playing on San Diego less frequently and it may now be time to start looking for spots to go against them. But I'm taking the Padres tonight, even at what is perhaps a minimally inflated price. They're hot and so are the Dodgers, but the pitching hookup tonight dictates this call. Jon Garland is on a monster roll for the Padres and is clearly a go with pitcher right now. And I definitely do not mind fading Ramon Ortiz at all. In addition to being a mostly unreliable pitcher for most of his career, Ortiz has been working out of the pen, and he likely won't go past five innings unless he's razor sharp. So if the home team is in this one in the middle innings, they have to rate the chalk role down the stretch with their outstanding bullpen likely having to work fewer innings tonight. Back the Padres to garner another win
Matchup: St Louis at Cincinnati
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) GARCIA, J vs. (R) HARANG, A
Play: Cincinnati (ML +120)
Jaime Garcia has been a revelation so far for the Cardinals. He's come all the way back from arm surgery and has been superb throughout the early going for the Cardinals. But the southpaw is overpriced tonight as he goes against Aaron Harang and the Reds. St. Louis is simply not playing well right now. They aren't hitting and they have not been sharp defensively. As for the Reds, they're on a five-game winning streak and Harang has finally shown signs of recapturing his old form with three straight quality starts. I still give Garcia the edge as far as the pitching goes, but that is overridden by the more important team factors, which clearly favor Cincy right now. Add in the decent home dog odds and it's a spot where the Reds are worth backing.
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Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at San Diego
Time: 10:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) ORTIZ, Ra vs. (R) GARLAND, J
Play: San Diego (ML -135)
Good things don't last forever, and based on the number tonight for the Dodgers-Padres contest, it appears as though stealing value with the underrated Friars is finally coming to an end. That means I'll likely be playing on San Diego less frequently and it may now be time to start looking for spots to go against them. But I'm taking the Padres tonight, even at what is perhaps a minimally inflated price. They're hot and so are the Dodgers, but the pitching hookup tonight dictates this call. Jon Garland is on a monster roll for the Padres and is clearly a go with pitcher right now. And I definitely do not mind fading Ramon Ortiz at all. In addition to being a mostly unreliable pitcher for most of his career, Ortiz has been working out of the pen, and he likely won't go past five innings unless he's razor sharp. So if the home team is in this one in the middle innings, they have to rate the chalk role down the stretch with their outstanding bullpen likely having to work fewer innings tonight. Back the Padres to garner another win
Vince Akins
A's at Angels
Pick: A's +115
The difference in starters in this one is tremendous and the value you are getting with it is too good to pass up. You might think Dallas Braden falls here coming off the perfect game but in fact he’s been a solid pitcher all season. The same can’t be said about Joe Saunders, who has been brutal this year.
Obviously Braden is coming off a win, his perfect game effort from Sunday. The Athletics are 5-1 since April 30, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $605.
Joe Saunders won his last start, but that’s sure been a rarity this season. Oakland is a team which often puts the ball on the ground and that does not bode well for Saunders. The Angels are 1-7 since October 17, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $665 when playing against.
Oakland also strikes out a lot and Saunders is just not the kind of strikeout pitcher who can take advantage. The Angels are 0-4 since July 27, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $535 when playing against.
These same two pitchers faced off in early April, in a 9-4 Oakland win. The Athletics are 9-2 since July 12, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1125
Both teams enter this game as losers of two straight. LA never led in either of the games. The Angels are 0-4 since August 25, 2009 at home when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $645 when playing against.
Look for Braden to show up in this situation as the Athletics are 5-1 since April 13, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $605.
A's at Angels
Pick: A's +115
The difference in starters in this one is tremendous and the value you are getting with it is too good to pass up. You might think Dallas Braden falls here coming off the perfect game but in fact he’s been a solid pitcher all season. The same can’t be said about Joe Saunders, who has been brutal this year.
Obviously Braden is coming off a win, his perfect game effort from Sunday. The Athletics are 5-1 since April 30, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $605.
Joe Saunders won his last start, but that’s sure been a rarity this season. Oakland is a team which often puts the ball on the ground and that does not bode well for Saunders. The Angels are 1-7 since October 17, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $665 when playing against.
Oakland also strikes out a lot and Saunders is just not the kind of strikeout pitcher who can take advantage. The Angels are 0-4 since July 27, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $535 when playing against.
These same two pitchers faced off in early April, in a 9-4 Oakland win. The Athletics are 9-2 since July 12, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1125
Both teams enter this game as losers of two straight. LA never led in either of the games. The Angels are 0-4 since August 25, 2009 at home when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $645 when playing against.
Look for Braden to show up in this situation as the Athletics are 5-1 since April 13, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $605.
Bob Balfe
Oakland Athletics +105
Braden is coming off of a no-hitter, so obviously he can only go on the decline from here as he already hit his high, but the Angels are atrociously terrible at generating runs this year. Look for Oakland to squeeze out a win behind another Braden gem. Take the A's
Oakland Athletics +105
Braden is coming off of a no-hitter, so obviously he can only go on the decline from here as he already hit his high, but the Angels are atrociously terrible at generating runs this year. Look for Oakland to squeeze out a win behind another Braden gem. Take the A's
Friday MLB Play-GC
On Friday the Bonus Play is on the St.Louis Cardinals. Game 953 at 7:10 eastern. The Cardinals are fresh off a home sweep. However they were the ones who were swept. They were dispacthed rather easily once again by an average Houston team. The Cardinals have now lost 7 of their last 9. Tonight they travel to Cincinatti to take on the Reds. St.Louis will send under rated J.Garcia to the mound. Garcia has quietly put up solid numbers. In 38 innings he has allowed just 5 earned runs, good for a dynamic 1.18 era. The Reds will counter with over rated A.Harang tonight. Harang has a 5.18 home era and is just 7-12 with a 4.57 era vs the Cardinals. Ironically this will be his 3rd start already vs St.Louis. In the first 2 meetings he allowed 7 runs in 11 innings. However he has surrenderd 3 home runs. Look for thr Cardinals to get untracked here tonight. Take St.Louis tonight. On Friday I have the 5* MLB Diamond Cutter system that is derived from a 14-1 Totals system that wins by over 3.5 runs per game. I also have the Revenge Game of th month backed by another famed Cutting edge system and a big Dominator angle. For the Bonus Play take the Cardinals tonight, GC
On Friday the Bonus Play is on the St.Louis Cardinals. Game 953 at 7:10 eastern. The Cardinals are fresh off a home sweep. However they were the ones who were swept. They were dispacthed rather easily once again by an average Houston team. The Cardinals have now lost 7 of their last 9. Tonight they travel to Cincinatti to take on the Reds. St.Louis will send under rated J.Garcia to the mound. Garcia has quietly put up solid numbers. In 38 innings he has allowed just 5 earned runs, good for a dynamic 1.18 era. The Reds will counter with over rated A.Harang tonight. Harang has a 5.18 home era and is just 7-12 with a 4.57 era vs the Cardinals. Ironically this will be his 3rd start already vs St.Louis. In the first 2 meetings he allowed 7 runs in 11 innings. However he has surrenderd 3 home runs. Look for thr Cardinals to get untracked here tonight. Take St.Louis tonight. On Friday I have the 5* MLB Diamond Cutter system that is derived from a 14-1 Totals system that wins by over 3.5 runs per game. I also have the Revenge Game of th month backed by another famed Cutting edge system and a big Dominator angle. For the Bonus Play take the Cardinals tonight, GC
