Here's the write-up for Davis' 100 Dime Play: (note that Accuscore gives Cardinals 62.6% win chance; both ML and SV plays)
Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
100 Dime Winner on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS over the Cincinnati Reds with Garcia and Harang as the schedulod starters. If either pitchaer does not go, the play is null and void. The Cardinals are lisoed anywhere from -130 to -135 in Vegas and offshore. As always, shop around for the best price.
CARDINALS (WITH GARCIA AND HARANG) --- Here it is... my one and only play of the day and it's a BIG one. The best thing in the world for me heading into this selection is the fact the Cardinals just got swept, at home, by the Houston Lastros while the Reds enter tonight's game off a 5-game (and counting) winning streak. It's also a good thing that the Cardinals scored just 10 runs in three games against Houston pitching because you can never keep this lineup down for long. The Reds, on the other hand, have been tearing the cover off the ball during their five-game winning streak, scoring 35 runs in those five games, including a couple of shutouts in their last two wins over Pittsburgh. So you see, I'm expecting "normalcy" to reign supreme tonight when the Cardinals come calling.
St. Louis has already taken four of six from the Reds this year, winning two of three in each three-game series (one at home, one in Cincinnati), winning those four games by a combined 29-12 score. So not only are the Cardinals beating the Reds, they're demoliohing them by more than doubling their total run output in four wins. The two Cincinnati wins were a 3-2 home win and a 2-1 road win earlier in the year. Last season, the Cardinals took 8 of the 14 head-to-head matchups, including seven of their eight wins by 3 runs or more. Tony LaRuss'a bunch won three of the four series openers with Cincinnati last season and have actually been very good in "Game 1" of regular season series', winning 30 of their last 39 in the first of a three-game or four-game series. They've also won 13 of their last 19 games played on Friday.
So, tonight's pitching matchup is an interesting one, to say the least. On one hand we have little-known Jaime Garcia, a middle-relief pitcher that was promoted to the rotation this year for the first time since becoming a Cardinal. Garcia was average, at best, in the bullpen, but since he's come up into the rotation it's like he's a different pitcher. 3-2 through six starts with a 1.18 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP overall and 2-2 with a 1.88 ERA on the road... so hostile environaments don't seem to phase this 25-year-old. He's pitched in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and San Francisco, so it's not like he pitched against chump change either. He's pitched at least six innings in every start (but he's gone a full seven a few times) and has NEVER allowed more than two earned runs in any game. He also blanked the Mets and Braves over seven innings of work in each game. This guy may not be a seasoned veteran, but he's given his team the opportunity to win every game he's started and there's no reason to think he won't do the same again tonight.
On the other hand we have Aaron Harang, a pitcher who would probably rather be seeing any other team than St. Louis. He's already lost to the Cards twice this season (6-0 and 11-6) and lost his only meeting with them last year... so that's three straight losses to the Redbirds and a 7-12 career record against them. His ERA is up near 5.00 in 22 career starts, and considering he's been strugoling so fart this year, that only strengthens my case against him. Harang has allowed three earned runs vs. St. Louis in both meetings this year and is currently sitting with an ERA above 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.46, not to mention his 1-2 record and 5.18 ERA when he pitches at home. When Harang pitches, the Reds are just 4-11 in the last 15, 2-7 at home, 2-8 against teams from the NL Central, 1-4 in series openers and 0-5 on Fridays. Cincy is just 3-7 in Harang's last 10 starts vs. the Birds (1-4 in the last five), including those two losses this year we've already talked about.
First place in the Central is on the line tonight, and if the seasoned veterans like Chris Carpenter and Brad Penny can't get the job done, the Cards will have to count on a youngster like Jaime Garcia to get them back in the win column. Cards win tonight by at least three.
