Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
50 Dime Winner on the UTAH JAZZ at home over the Denver Nuggets. The Jazz are listed mainly as a 4 1/2-point home favorioe, but I do see some 5's out there. Make sure you shop for the best price!
25 Dime Winner on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS as the small home dog over the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks are listed anywheere from 1 1/2 to 2 point dogs, so make sure you shop for the best price as well.
10 Dime Winner on the FLORIDA MARLINS -1 1/2 RUN LINE over the Washington Nationals with Olsen and Nolasco as the lisded pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
5 Dime Winner on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Colorado Rockies with Cook and Zito as listed pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
UTAH JAZZ --- So far in this series, I've hit three out of my four selections, including two 50-dime winners and one, 100-dime winner. I was close to releasing a play on the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 at home, but I chickened out at the last second and it cost me an easy win. If there was ever a series in which it's going to be nearly impossible for the road team to win... it's this one. Denver has won two of three at home while Utah has held serve on their home court, winning both Games 3 and 4. The Jazz have dropped just 9 home games all season and with the series on the line tonight, I highly doubt Jerry Sloan will let them play sloppy because the last thing they want to do is go back to Denver for Game 7.
Everything I mentioned in my analysis from Game 3 and Game 4 (both winners on the Utah Jazz) still holds true. The Jazz dominate at home and have dropped just one contest with Denver there in the last 7 tries. They are not only winning games at home, they're winning by double digits (12 PPG). Denver's offense can't be stopped at home... that's clear. But when they go on the road it's another story. They average 8 PPG less on the road than they do at home, and in this series it's a 10 PPG difference. Utah, on the other hand, plays decent offense no matter where they go, but it's the defensive intensity they show at home that will be the difference tonight. In this series the Jazz have allowed nearly 10 PPG less on at home than on the road and that will ultimately decide tonight's game. If Utah plays the same kind of defense tonight that they played in Game 3 and Game 4, this is a no-brainer... they'll win by double digits.
The Jazz have been in every game of this series unlike Denver who was never really in Game 2 (despite the final score) and they weren't really in Game 3 or 4 either. Game 5 was probably the best game the Nuggets have played from beginning to end, but it took a 4th quarter push to finally run away with it. It's quite simple for Denver, really... they need to shoot 50% or better from the floor to even have a chance to win this game, let alone cover the number. There's a reason they got the 4-seed instead of the 2-seed... and that's the fact they REALLY struggled on the road to close out the year. I see no reason that doesn't continue tonight.
Vegas isn't stupid, either. They listed Utah as a 2-point favorite in both Games 3 and 4, and despite the opening line being -3 1/2, it's crept up to -5 1/2 and -6 in some places (they're begging people to play Denver). Utah is 28-13-2 ATS at home this year while Denver is just 15-23-5 ATS on the road (1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games). The Jazz are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, and with the series on the line tonight, there's no way the Jazz let this one get away. Utah by 10.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS--- Am I missing something, or does Vegas simply have this one dead wrong? What else do the Hawks have to do in order to get some respect at the window? After easily covering Games 3 and 4 at home, they go to Atlanta and steal one to take a 3-2 series lead with a chance to close it out at home. So they've covered three straight in this series and now they're a 2-point underdog at home? I dont' get it. Milwaukee hasn't been a favorite in any of the five games of this series, yet they lead the series by taking 3 of the first 5 games and again tonight we find them as a small pup. I don't care what Vegas thinks, the Hawks are a selfish bunch of "me" players who don't play with any team unity. Charles Barkley called them "Denver East" because they play a lot of one-on-one basketball with very little offensive consistency. If they aren't taking someone to the hole or hitting threes, this offense is a complete mess. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is playing sound defense for 48 minutes and they're still getting it done without Andrew Bogut.
Atlanta's body language after Game 5 was all I needed to see to know they just aren't ready for this series and have taken Milwaukee too lightly after dominating them in Games 1 and 2. Mike Bibby isn't dishing out assists and Josh Smith is playing soft, and unless that changes tonight (which I wouldn't bet on), they have absolutely no prayer of winning this game.The Bucks shoot a good percentage from the field, but it's even better at home, and they will win this game at the free throw line... first, by getting there and second by converting. Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a non-cover while Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a pup. Take the points as Milwaukee will win this SU.
FLORIDA MARLINS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (With Olsen and Nolasco) --- This one comes down to starting pitching, and Ricky Nolasco is clearly the play here. I could care less that the Nats are 12-10 to start the season or the fact they actually have a winning road record, this is nothing more than an early season mirage that will quickly be forgotten when the team is 20 games under .500 at the All Star Break. I admire what they've done to this point as they've actually made people some nice money as decided underdogs in almost all of their games. But tonight they run into a buzzsaw named Rick Nolasco that they just haven't been able to figure out. Nolasco is 7-1 in his career vs. Washington with a 3.85 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 9 career starts. Last season Nolasco faced the Nationals 3 times last season and, as you guessed, he was 3-0 with an ERA under 3. Washington's starter, Scott Olsen, actually faced off against Nolasco in two of those three games and, obviously, lost both of them (actually, he only got credit for one loss but the team lost both). He was 0-1 in three starts in 2009 vs. Florida but the team was 0-3 in those starts. Mismatch tonight, which is why the Vegas money line is so high and we're having to take the run line. No worries, Florida wins this by 3 or more.
SF GIANTS (With Cook and Zito) --- I'm not sure why Vegas has so much love for Aaron Cook, but who am I to argue... especially since I'm on the Giants? Cook's season ERA is 5.01 and his record is 1-2, not to mention his career ERA vs. San Francisco is 4.87 and his W/L record in 20 starts is 7-9. Cook has been a completely different pitcher on the road this season, losing both of his road starts with an ERA near 10. Barry Zito, meanwhile, has found a second wind in his career as he's really settled back into a nice groove and is off to a nice start this year. Zito has allowed 1 or fewer ERs in three of his four starts so far and hasn't allowed more than 3 ERs in any game he's started in 2010. For his career vs. Colorado, Zito is 4-2 in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a .194 opponent's batting average against. The Giants really got a morale boost when they took 2 of 3 against Philly and 2 of 3 against St. Louis... two potential opponents in the post-season. They are 8-4 at home this year and this matchup is clearly in their favor tonight. Play the Giants to get an easy home win tonight.
Friday's Lineup
50 Dime Winner on the UTAH JAZZ at home over the Denver Nuggets. The Jazz are listed mainly as a 4 1/2-point home favorioe, but I do see some 5's out there. Make sure you shop for the best price!
25 Dime Winner on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS as the small home dog over the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks are listed anywheere from 1 1/2 to 2 point dogs, so make sure you shop for the best price as well.
10 Dime Winner on the FLORIDA MARLINS -1 1/2 RUN LINE over the Washington Nationals with Olsen and Nolasco as the lisded pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
5 Dime Winner on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Colorado Rockies with Cook and Zito as listed pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
UTAH JAZZ --- So far in this series, I've hit three out of my four selections, including two 50-dime winners and one, 100-dime winner. I was close to releasing a play on the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 at home, but I chickened out at the last second and it cost me an easy win. If there was ever a series in which it's going to be nearly impossible for the road team to win... it's this one. Denver has won two of three at home while Utah has held serve on their home court, winning both Games 3 and 4. The Jazz have dropped just 9 home games all season and with the series on the line tonight, I highly doubt Jerry Sloan will let them play sloppy because the last thing they want to do is go back to Denver for Game 7.
Everything I mentioned in my analysis from Game 3 and Game 4 (both winners on the Utah Jazz) still holds true. The Jazz dominate at home and have dropped just one contest with Denver there in the last 7 tries. They are not only winning games at home, they're winning by double digits (12 PPG). Denver's offense can't be stopped at home... that's clear. But when they go on the road it's another story. They average 8 PPG less on the road than they do at home, and in this series it's a 10 PPG difference. Utah, on the other hand, plays decent offense no matter where they go, but it's the defensive intensity they show at home that will be the difference tonight. In this series the Jazz have allowed nearly 10 PPG less on at home than on the road and that will ultimately decide tonight's game. If Utah plays the same kind of defense tonight that they played in Game 3 and Game 4, this is a no-brainer... they'll win by double digits.
The Jazz have been in every game of this series unlike Denver who was never really in Game 2 (despite the final score) and they weren't really in Game 3 or 4 either. Game 5 was probably the best game the Nuggets have played from beginning to end, but it took a 4th quarter push to finally run away with it. It's quite simple for Denver, really... they need to shoot 50% or better from the floor to even have a chance to win this game, let alone cover the number. There's a reason they got the 4-seed instead of the 2-seed... and that's the fact they REALLY struggled on the road to close out the year. I see no reason that doesn't continue tonight.
Vegas isn't stupid, either. They listed Utah as a 2-point favorite in both Games 3 and 4, and despite the opening line being -3 1/2, it's crept up to -5 1/2 and -6 in some places (they're begging people to play Denver). Utah is 28-13-2 ATS at home this year while Denver is just 15-23-5 ATS on the road (1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games). The Jazz are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, and with the series on the line tonight, there's no way the Jazz let this one get away. Utah by 10.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS--- Am I missing something, or does Vegas simply have this one dead wrong? What else do the Hawks have to do in order to get some respect at the window? After easily covering Games 3 and 4 at home, they go to Atlanta and steal one to take a 3-2 series lead with a chance to close it out at home. So they've covered three straight in this series and now they're a 2-point underdog at home? I dont' get it. Milwaukee hasn't been a favorite in any of the five games of this series, yet they lead the series by taking 3 of the first 5 games and again tonight we find them as a small pup. I don't care what Vegas thinks, the Hawks are a selfish bunch of "me" players who don't play with any team unity. Charles Barkley called them "Denver East" because they play a lot of one-on-one basketball with very little offensive consistency. If they aren't taking someone to the hole or hitting threes, this offense is a complete mess. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is playing sound defense for 48 minutes and they're still getting it done without Andrew Bogut.
Atlanta's body language after Game 5 was all I needed to see to know they just aren't ready for this series and have taken Milwaukee too lightly after dominating them in Games 1 and 2. Mike Bibby isn't dishing out assists and Josh Smith is playing soft, and unless that changes tonight (which I wouldn't bet on), they have absolutely no prayer of winning this game.The Bucks shoot a good percentage from the field, but it's even better at home, and they will win this game at the free throw line... first, by getting there and second by converting. Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a non-cover while Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a pup. Take the points as Milwaukee will win this SU.
FLORIDA MARLINS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (With Olsen and Nolasco) --- This one comes down to starting pitching, and Ricky Nolasco is clearly the play here. I could care less that the Nats are 12-10 to start the season or the fact they actually have a winning road record, this is nothing more than an early season mirage that will quickly be forgotten when the team is 20 games under .500 at the All Star Break. I admire what they've done to this point as they've actually made people some nice money as decided underdogs in almost all of their games. But tonight they run into a buzzsaw named Rick Nolasco that they just haven't been able to figure out. Nolasco is 7-1 in his career vs. Washington with a 3.85 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 9 career starts. Last season Nolasco faced the Nationals 3 times last season and, as you guessed, he was 3-0 with an ERA under 3. Washington's starter, Scott Olsen, actually faced off against Nolasco in two of those three games and, obviously, lost both of them (actually, he only got credit for one loss but the team lost both). He was 0-1 in three starts in 2009 vs. Florida but the team was 0-3 in those starts. Mismatch tonight, which is why the Vegas money line is so high and we're having to take the run line. No worries, Florida wins this by 3 or more.
SF GIANTS (With Cook and Zito) --- I'm not sure why Vegas has so much love for Aaron Cook, but who am I to argue... especially since I'm on the Giants? Cook's season ERA is 5.01 and his record is 1-2, not to mention his career ERA vs. San Francisco is 4.87 and his W/L record in 20 starts is 7-9. Cook has been a completely different pitcher on the road this season, losing both of his road starts with an ERA near 10. Barry Zito, meanwhile, has found a second wind in his career as he's really settled back into a nice groove and is off to a nice start this year. Zito has allowed 1 or fewer ERs in three of his four starts so far and hasn't allowed more than 3 ERs in any game he's started in 2010. For his career vs. Colorado, Zito is 4-2 in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a .194 opponent's batting average against. The Giants really got a morale boost when they took 2 of 3 against Philly and 2 of 3 against St. Louis... two potential opponents in the post-season. They are 8-4 at home this year and this matchup is clearly in their favor tonight. Play the Giants to get an easy home win tonight.
