jeff benton friday
0-1 yesterday MINUS 25 dimes..overall, 28-31-3 (even money) since i started posting.
Thursday's Action 20 Dime: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
10 Dime: TAMPA BAY RAYS on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) ... NOTE: Both Jeff Niemann and Brian Bannister must start this game or this play is VOID!
Bucks
Absolutely I’ll ride momentum here with the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, I was absolutely astounded when I first saw the number the oddsmakers hung on this game. I was certain Milwaukee would be laying a good 3-4 points, so for them to actually be a home underdog? Sign me up!
Look, maybe this line is a trap – we’ll see. But all I know is I watched that fourth quarter in Atlanta last night, and I saw the same thing I’ve seen this entire series: For whatever reason, the Hawks absolutely cannot stay focused for 48 minutes (actually, I know the reason: Their coach stinks, and the players are selfish individuals). Even in their 10-point wins in Games 1 and 2, Atlanta had stretches where it just completely came unglued on both ends of the court.
In Game 1, they saw a 62-40 halftime lead shrink to five after getting outscored 30-19 in the third quarter.
In Game 2, they squandered most of a 19-point lead and needed a late push to cover the number.
In Game 3, they got blitzed in the first (36-19 deficit) and third (26-17) quarters and trailed by as many as 28.
In Game 4, they fell apart again in the third quarter, getting outscored 31-24 in a game they eventually lost by seven points (and Milwaukee had a 13-point lead at one juncture).
And finally, there was the Game 5 fourth-quarter debacle, with Atlanta squandering a nine-point lead with four minutes to play, allowing the Bucks to go on a 13-0 run to take control and win 91-87.
Don’t know if you saw the look on the faces of the Hawks’ players after that Game 5 stunner, but I did. They looked completely bewildered and deflated, like they didn’t believe what just happened. Now, after a blowing a 2-0 series lead and just 48 hours removed from Wednesday’s stunning loss, they have to regroup, go back to Milwaukee and win an elimination game against an opponent that smells blood and is brimming with confidence? I just don’t see it happening.
After all, since a thrilling seven-game opening round series against Boston in 2008, the Hawks have now played 11 road playoff games the last three years … and they have exactly one win and one spread-cover. That’s right: 1-11 SU and ATS. On the other hand, with the victories in Games 3 and 4, the Bucks are now 30-13 at the Bradley Center this season.
Bottom line: All the pressure in this game – ALL of it – is on the Hawks. And this team has NOT dealt with pressure very well at all, not in this postseason or the last two. And you cannot convince me that Atlanta has had enough time to get over what happened in that fourth quarter Wednesday night – there is no doubt there will be a hangover effect in play here with the Hawks (and part of the reason for that is they’re coach, Mike Woodson – who has little clue what he’s doing on the court – will not know how to get his players refocused).
Fear the Dear indeed, folks. Bucks complete the upset tonight – and a double-digit win wouldn’t surprise me in the least!
Rays (-1½ runs)
The Rays are an absolute runaway freight train right now. With Thursday’s 11-1 rout of the Royals, they improved baseball’s best record to 17-5. And it’s not just the fact they’re playing .773 baseball; it’s that they’re annihilating every team put in front of them. Tampa has won five straight games by a total of 31 runs, and of its last 15 wins, 14 have been by multiple runs. Seriously, look at these final scores:
9-3, 5-1, 8-6, 9-1, 3-1, 7-1, 8-2, 12-0, 10-2, 9-3, 6-0, 8-6, 10-3 and 11-1.
Just one blowout after another. And there’s no reason to think it won’t continue tonight against Kansas City, which has lost three straight (for the first time this season) and seven of 10. And while Royals starter Brian Bannister has been solid in three of his first four starts, he has just one win to show for it, and that was Sunday’s 4-3 victory over Minnesota. Prior to that, the Royals – in part because of Bannister, in part because of their shitty-ass bullpen – had lost nine straight games behind Bannister. That includes six straight road losses.
Last year, Bannister faced the Rays three times, pitching one gem (seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 win) and two stinkers (12 runs, 10 earned, in 8 2/3 innings, losing both contests). In fact, going back to the start of the 2008 season, Bannister is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA against Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile, the Rays are going with Jeff Niemann in this game, and since being forced to leave his first start after getting hit with a comebacker in the second inning, he’s been solid, allowing just eight runs in 20 2/3 innings (3.48 ERA), and the Rays won all three games by scores of 8-6, 8-2 and 9-3. In fact, they’re 5-1 in Niemann’s last six starts going back to the end of last season. Oh, and check out what he did in two starts as a rookie against the Royals last year, both at home: one run, six hits, one walk, 16 strikeouts in 17 innings, winning 9-0 and 7-1.
