Al DeMarco Friday's Play 15 Dime Release
Texas-El Paso
Keep in mind this game starts at 4:00 Eastern.
Why? Because Tulsa as the tournament host got to pick the time it wanted to play its quarterfinal game on Thursday. Naturally, the Golden Hurricane took the first slot and whipped Marshall 80-64. That left Texas-El Paso, the regular season conference champion, relegated to the nightcap.
Talk about getting screwed.
Here's where Tulsa's strategy - although wise - gets negated. First of all, the Hurricane, the tournament's fifth seed, will be playing their third game in three days. On the other hand, although Texas-El Paso will be back on the court about 16 hours after its Thursday night game ended, the Miners weren't exactly pushed to the limit by Central Florida last night.(-: They were up 28 at halftime and rolled 76-54 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. And the huge margin at intermission meant Conference USA Player of the Year Randy Culpepper played just four minutes in the second half. Big man Derrick Caracter, who will have to battle Tulsa center Jerome Jordan again, didn't play at all in the second half. In fact, the most minutes played by any starter was 27 as the back-ups mopped up.
UTEP is the class of C-USA. It's won 16 in a row and is currently ranked 25th in the nation. The Miners averaged 75.5 points and shot 49.5% from the field in sweeping the season series.
Tulsa defeated Rice and Marshall the past two days, but this is a team that lost five of its final seven regular season outings. And in what I call "step-up" games, the Miners didn't deliver in the season's final month, losing twice to Memphis (by 22 on the road, 7 at home) and UTEP (by 14 on the road, 8 at home), at Duke (by 18) and UAB (by 10).
But looks are deceiving and because Tulsa is hosting the tournament - and because of their time-slot strategy - the oddsmakers are giving us a tremendous discount on Texas-El Paso, who I feel should be laying 6. I think the Miners take it by eight to sweep the season series both on the floor and in Vegas.
From another forum
Texas-El Paso
Keep in mind this game starts at 4:00 Eastern.
Why? Because Tulsa as the tournament host got to pick the time it wanted to play its quarterfinal game on Thursday. Naturally, the Golden Hurricane took the first slot and whipped Marshall 80-64. That left Texas-El Paso, the regular season conference champion, relegated to the nightcap.
Talk about getting screwed.
Here's where Tulsa's strategy - although wise - gets negated. First of all, the Hurricane, the tournament's fifth seed, will be playing their third game in three days. On the other hand, although Texas-El Paso will be back on the court about 16 hours after its Thursday night game ended, the Miners weren't exactly pushed to the limit by Central Florida last night.(-: They were up 28 at halftime and rolled 76-54 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. And the huge margin at intermission meant Conference USA Player of the Year Randy Culpepper played just four minutes in the second half. Big man Derrick Caracter, who will have to battle Tulsa center Jerome Jordan again, didn't play at all in the second half. In fact, the most minutes played by any starter was 27 as the back-ups mopped up.
UTEP is the class of C-USA. It's won 16 in a row and is currently ranked 25th in the nation. The Miners averaged 75.5 points and shot 49.5% from the field in sweeping the season series.
Tulsa defeated Rice and Marshall the past two days, but this is a team that lost five of its final seven regular season outings. And in what I call "step-up" games, the Miners didn't deliver in the season's final month, losing twice to Memphis (by 22 on the road, 7 at home) and UTEP (by 14 on the road, 8 at home), at Duke (by 18) and UAB (by 10).
But looks are deceiving and because Tulsa is hosting the tournament - and because of their time-slot strategy - the oddsmakers are giving us a tremendous discount on Texas-El Paso, who I feel should be laying 6. I think the Miners take it by eight to sweep the season series both on the floor and in Vegas.
From another forum
st bernadine sports - lillefty
1* Hampton/Morgan st over 133.5(6:30 pm) - Morgan st has been a picture of offensive efficiency the past 2 weeks. They have been shooting near 50%. Even when they do miss they are hitting the offensive glass with reckless abandon lately. You don't average 65+ shots per game unless you can push the tempo. Hampton has come on lately also. They have won 6 straight by shooting 48% from the field and 38% from 3pt range. Overall both teams are near 70% from the charity stripe too. Look for this one to be an up and down affair with both teams hitting the 70's.
4* Xavier -3 over Dayton(6:30 pm) -This is the first 4 star play since last august!! Dayton embarassed Xavier in February. That loss brought this Xavier team together. The players hald a team meeting after that 90-65 loss and said that that type of effort couldn't happen again. Xavier has tightened up their rebounding since then and the winning streak flourished. Dayton really limped towards the end of the season. Offensively their FG% fell off dramatically in the last few games and the games got ugly. Look for Xavier to really lay a beat down on the Flyers today.
2* Ga tech/Maryland over 143.5(7pm) - I am shocked that the line has fallen 4 points on this one. Both these teams like to push the tempo. While their defensive FG % are nice, they are only that low because the hectic styles of play force a lot of out of control play. Both teams have been over machines for about 3 weeks now. The Terps are top 40 in offensive pace during this winning streak. Combine that with 47% shooting and you score lots of points. Ga Tech will be happy to run with Maryland if they let them. This game ends up in the 160's I believe.
1* Notre Dame/W. Virginia under 126.5(9:25pm) - I explained last game about the Burn offense that the Irish have been running. Last night we saw what happens when 2 teams try to run it. You get 95 points. W. Va is middle of the pack in the country in offense. It seems almost every game they go through a stretch of offesive ineptness. The mountaineers are only putting up 40% FG in the last 7 games. This game should be every bit as ugly as last night's Cincy/W.Va game.
1* BYU/UNLV over 146(11:30 pm) - Both these teams will look to run and gun like this is Providence/Seton Hall. BYU is top 15 in offensive efficiency in the counrty. They seem to get points every time down the court. BYU has played 4 nuetral site games this year and is hitting 56%FG in those games. WOW! Plus BYU sorely remembers the absolute beatdown laid on them by UNLV last time they faced them .We should too as we had UNLV that game. UNLV was up 45-17 at one point. Look for a sharp focused effort from BYU that will lead to 90 pts from them. I can see 90-70 easy in this one.
Let's Cash!!
ZAGS
1* Hampton/Morgan st over 133.5(6:30 pm) - Morgan st has been a picture of offensive efficiency the past 2 weeks. They have been shooting near 50%. Even when they do miss they are hitting the offensive glass with reckless abandon lately. You don't average 65+ shots per game unless you can push the tempo. Hampton has come on lately also. They have won 6 straight by shooting 48% from the field and 38% from 3pt range. Overall both teams are near 70% from the charity stripe too. Look for this one to be an up and down affair with both teams hitting the 70's.
4* Xavier -3 over Dayton(6:30 pm) -This is the first 4 star play since last august!! Dayton embarassed Xavier in February. That loss brought this Xavier team together. The players hald a team meeting after that 90-65 loss and said that that type of effort couldn't happen again. Xavier has tightened up their rebounding since then and the winning streak flourished. Dayton really limped towards the end of the season. Offensively their FG% fell off dramatically in the last few games and the games got ugly. Look for Xavier to really lay a beat down on the Flyers today.
2* Ga tech/Maryland over 143.5(7pm) - I am shocked that the line has fallen 4 points on this one. Both these teams like to push the tempo. While their defensive FG % are nice, they are only that low because the hectic styles of play force a lot of out of control play. Both teams have been over machines for about 3 weeks now. The Terps are top 40 in offensive pace during this winning streak. Combine that with 47% shooting and you score lots of points. Ga Tech will be happy to run with Maryland if they let them. This game ends up in the 160's I believe.
1* Notre Dame/W. Virginia under 126.5(9:25pm) - I explained last game about the Burn offense that the Irish have been running. Last night we saw what happens when 2 teams try to run it. You get 95 points. W. Va is middle of the pack in the country in offense. It seems almost every game they go through a stretch of offesive ineptness. The mountaineers are only putting up 40% FG in the last 7 games. This game should be every bit as ugly as last night's Cincy/W.Va game.
1* BYU/UNLV over 146(11:30 pm) - Both these teams will look to run and gun like this is Providence/Seton Hall. BYU is top 15 in offensive efficiency in the counrty. They seem to get points every time down the court. BYU has played 4 nuetral site games this year and is hitting 56%FG in those games. WOW! Plus BYU sorely remembers the absolute beatdown laid on them by UNLV last time they faced them .We should too as we had UNLV that game. UNLV was up 45-17 at one point. Look for a sharp focused effort from BYU that will lead to 90 pts from them. I can see 90-70 easy in this one.
Let's Cash!!
ZAGS
Champion Sports
NBA Moneymakers Continue
Denver vs. New Orleans 8:00 EST
UNDER 211 5 STAR
Denver has a history of playing flat against sub .500 teams and also scores less on the road. Without Lawson.
New Orleans is averaging 94.5 points in its last 8 games. Without Stojakovic.
San Antonio vs. Minnesota 8:00 EST
San Antonio -5
Total UNDER 203
This total is too high. Spurs on a 3-1 run Under the total while allowing 92, 91, 92, 97, and 87 points the last five games.
Wolves are easy fades at the moment. Wolves have never won against the Spurs in their last 10. Spurs are hot right now, five straight ATS wins.
Boston vs. Indiana 7:30 EST
Indiana +9.5 5 STAR
Boston as double digit favorites are 4-16 ATS. Pacers have stayed within this number twice already this year, winning one game outright. This will be the second game in seven days for Pacers, can't get much more rest and focus time than that. This is the Celtics fourth game in seven. Look ahead: Cavaliers on deck for Celtics. All signs pointing to the Pacers here staying within this number.
NBA Moneymakers Continue
Denver vs. New Orleans 8:00 EST
UNDER 211 5 STAR
Denver has a history of playing flat against sub .500 teams and also scores less on the road. Without Lawson.
New Orleans is averaging 94.5 points in its last 8 games. Without Stojakovic.
San Antonio vs. Minnesota 8:00 EST
San Antonio -5
Total UNDER 203
This total is too high. Spurs on a 3-1 run Under the total while allowing 92, 91, 92, 97, and 87 points the last five games.
Wolves are easy fades at the moment. Wolves have never won against the Spurs in their last 10. Spurs are hot right now, five straight ATS wins.
Boston vs. Indiana 7:30 EST
Indiana +9.5 5 STAR
Boston as double digit favorites are 4-16 ATS. Pacers have stayed within this number twice already this year, winning one game outright. This will be the second game in seven days for Pacers, can't get much more rest and focus time than that. This is the Celtics fourth game in seven. Look ahead: Cavaliers on deck for Celtics. All signs pointing to the Pacers here staying within this number.
If you're a twitter user add this guy.
http://twitter.com/LasVegasMitch
9-2 +$10,200 this week on his twitter. He is a service it looks like but so far everything has been posted free. Saw him on another site today.
http://twitter.com/LasVegasMitch
9-2 +$10,200 this week on his twitter. He is a service it looks like but so far everything has been posted free. Saw him on another site today.
HEAVY HITTER TEAM
COLLEGE TOURNEY DEMONATORS
TWO FOR FRIDAY
Illinois @ Wisconsin 2:30 ESPN Illinois +8 5 STAR Dog
Illinois has better talent, they can make shots from the arc, they are a tough team to beat. Getting this many points is a bonus.
Dayton vs. Xavier 6:30 EST Xavier -3 Revenge
The Musketeers have revenge for a 90-65 loss at Dayton in February. Since that loss, Xavier has rattled off seven straight wins, going 5-2 ATS. They are on a mission in this game to ground the Flyers.
COLLEGE TOURNEY DEMONATORS
TWO FOR FRIDAY
Illinois @ Wisconsin 2:30 ESPN Illinois +8 5 STAR Dog
Illinois has better talent, they can make shots from the arc, they are a tough team to beat. Getting this many points is a bonus.
Dayton vs. Xavier 6:30 EST Xavier -3 Revenge
The Musketeers have revenge for a 90-65 loss at Dayton in February. Since that loss, Xavier has rattled off seven straight wins, going 5-2 ATS. They are on a mission in this game to ground the Flyers.
