Jimmy Boyd
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
Jimmy Boyd
4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
I have had a rough couple days...Hopefully you all are killing the books! BOL today!
4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
I have had a rough couple days...Hopefully you all are killing the books! BOL today!
ROBERT FERRINGO
4-Unit Play. Take #870 Akron (-3.5) over Western Michigan
Note: This is our Conference Tournament Game of the Year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #843 Illinois (+8) over Wisconsin
1-Unit Play. Take #828 Virginia Tech (-3.5) over Miami
1.5-Unit Play. Take #838 Xavier (-3) over Dayton
1-Unit Play. Take #852 Mississippi (+2.5) over Tennessee
1-Unit Play. Take #860 UTEP (-3.5) over Tulsa
1-Unit Play. Take #830 Maryland (-4) over Georgia Tech
1-Unit Play. Take #854 Mississippi State (-2) over Florida
1-Unit Play. Take #857 Houston (-2) over Southern Miss
1-Unit Play. Take #848 Michigan State (-3) over Minnesota
1-Unit Play. Take #878 New Mexico (-2.5) over San Diego State
1.5-Unit Play. Take #879 BYU (PK) over UNLV
1-Unit Play. Take #883 New Mexico State (+6.5) over Nevada
0.5-Unit Play. Take #849 Alabama (+10) over Kentucky
0.5-Unit Play. Take #835 Rhode Island (-2.5) over Saint Louis
0.5-Unit Play. Take #881 Louisiana Tech (+8) over Utah State
These are 5-point teasers:
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #879 BYU (+5) over UNLV AND Take #843 Illinois (+13) over Wisconsin
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #883 New Mexico State (+11.5) over Nevada AND Take #852 Mississippi (+7.5) over Tennessee
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #832 Florida State (-1) over N.C. State AND Take #881 Louisiana Tech (+13) over Utah State
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #842 Ohio State (-3.5) over Michigan (Noon) AND Take #874 California (-3.5) over UCLA (9 p.m.)
4-Unit Play. Take #870 Akron (-3.5) over Western Michigan
Note: This is our Conference Tournament Game of the Year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #843 Illinois (+8) over Wisconsin
1-Unit Play. Take #828 Virginia Tech (-3.5) over Miami
1.5-Unit Play. Take #838 Xavier (-3) over Dayton
1-Unit Play. Take #852 Mississippi (+2.5) over Tennessee
1-Unit Play. Take #860 UTEP (-3.5) over Tulsa
1-Unit Play. Take #830 Maryland (-4) over Georgia Tech
1-Unit Play. Take #854 Mississippi State (-2) over Florida
1-Unit Play. Take #857 Houston (-2) over Southern Miss
1-Unit Play. Take #848 Michigan State (-3) over Minnesota
1-Unit Play. Take #878 New Mexico (-2.5) over San Diego State
1.5-Unit Play. Take #879 BYU (PK) over UNLV
1-Unit Play. Take #883 New Mexico State (+6.5) over Nevada
0.5-Unit Play. Take #849 Alabama (+10) over Kentucky
0.5-Unit Play. Take #835 Rhode Island (-2.5) over Saint Louis
0.5-Unit Play. Take #881 Louisiana Tech (+8) over Utah State
These are 5-point teasers:
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #879 BYU (+5) over UNLV AND Take #843 Illinois (+13) over Wisconsin
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #883 New Mexico State (+11.5) over Nevada AND Take #852 Mississippi (+7.5) over Tennessee
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #832 Florida State (-1) over N.C. State AND Take #881 Louisiana Tech (+13) over Utah State
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #842 Ohio State (-3.5) over Michigan (Noon) AND Take #874 California (-3.5) over UCLA (9 p.m.)
JIMMY BOYD
ADDED PLAYS
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
ADDED PLAYS
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire's Club
--
Illinois (+8) over Wisconsin
2:25 PM -- Big Ten Tournament - Quarterfinals - Conseco Field
Millionaire's Club
--
Miss State (-1½) over Florida
7:30 PM -- SEC Tournament - Quarterfinals - Bridgestone Arena
Perfect Play
--
Florida State (-6) over Nc State
Slam Dunk Club
Friday, March 12, 2010
--
Dayton (+3) over Xavier
6:30 PM -- Atlantic 10 Tournament - Quarterfinals - Boardwalk
Millionaire's Club
--
Illinois (+8) over Wisconsin
2:25 PM -- Big Ten Tournament - Quarterfinals - Conseco Field
Millionaire's Club
--
Miss State (-1½) over Florida
7:30 PM -- SEC Tournament - Quarterfinals - Bridgestone Arena
Perfect Play
--
Florida State (-6) over Nc State
Slam Dunk Club
Friday, March 12, 2010
--
Dayton (+3) over Xavier
6:30 PM -- Atlantic 10 Tournament - Quarterfinals - Boardwalk
Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
40 Dime – UNLV-BYU OVER
20 Dime – KANSAS STATE
BYU/UNLV OVER --- Either this total is a major trap of I found a mistake that I'm going to expose in a big way. These two teams are built on offense and transition buckets and I can assure you that both of these coaches are preaching "push the ball, push the ball". Defense goes out the window when these two hook up as evidenced by the 8 OVERS in their last 10 meetings. The teams that usually wins this perennial game is the team that "outscores" the other one... not the team that plays the best defense and comes up with stops. And if the history of this series doesn't tell you enough, maybe the fact BYU scores 83 PPG overall or 90 PPG on a neutral floor is enough for you.
Or we might consider that UNLV played BYU tight in Provo (only a four-point loss) followed by a 14-point home win at the Thomas and Mack Center. Why is that important? Because neither of those games were even close to what BYU is capable of offensively, and they have some major revenge on their minds and would love nothing more than to score triple digits again tonight on UNLV's home floor in front of their fans. Since scoring 74 points in that 14-point loss to UNLV, BYU has scored 91, 92, 85, 82, 81, 71, 107 and 95 in their next eight games for an average of 88 PPG. And considering UNLV isn't really a team built on stifling defense, I have to believe BYU will score at least 80 points again tonight. Jimmer Fredette might not be getting any consideration for Player of the Year, but that doesn't mean this kid isn't capable of scoring 45 points again tonight (he had 45 in last night's win over TCU).
UNLV has averaged 75 PPG over their last six and scores 74 PPG for the season. Combine that with the fact they have scored at least 73 points in their last three meetings with BYU and you see why I like the OVER so much in tonight's game. BYU has gone OVER the total in seven of their last nine games while UNLV has finished OVER in three of their last four. The line is currently at a pick 'em, which also leads me to believe Vegas thinks this game is going to be close... which gives us the slim chance of overtime which will only help our cause. However, I don't think we'll need overtime tonight. I'm looking at a final score in the neighborhood of 84-79 tonight, which easily puts us over the number.
KANSAS STATE --- This is as close to a home game as Kansas State could have hoped for playing in Kansas City, and this tournament is setting up to be a Kansas/Kansas State Championship game in Kansas City and the locals wouldn't have it any other way. These two teams (Baylor and Kansas State) have already matched up once this season with the Wildcats outlasting Baylor, 76-74, down in Waco. Both of these teams are athletic all over the floor, but you've heard the saying (probably too often) that solid guard play wins tournament games. Well, as much as I respect Baylor's guards and what they've accomplished this season, I have to give the advantage to Kansas State's Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente. These two combined for 31 points in last night's 19-point win over a very good Oklahoma State team. But the contributions from Jamar Samuels (27 points last night) is what's going to set this team apart for this tournament and the Big Dance.
If the Wildcats can continue to get these type of numbers from some of their post players to go along with what we know Clemente and Pullen can do, this is going to be a very dangerous team that could be playing in April. Taking nothing away from Baylor and what they've accomplished this year, I just don't think they have the horses to hang with Kansas State for 40 minutes. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but respect for Tweety Carter and the Baylor Bears because of how scrappy they've played this year (including three straight wins over Texas), but in a 40-minute game in a basic home game for Kansas State, I just don't see how Baylor can get the job done. I like Kansas State by at least 6 tonight.
BOUGHT, PAID and CONFIRMED! GOOD LUCK!
THIS WEEK: +140 dimes
Friday's Lineup
40 Dime – UNLV-BYU OVER
20 Dime – KANSAS STATE
BYU/UNLV OVER --- Either this total is a major trap of I found a mistake that I'm going to expose in a big way. These two teams are built on offense and transition buckets and I can assure you that both of these coaches are preaching "push the ball, push the ball". Defense goes out the window when these two hook up as evidenced by the 8 OVERS in their last 10 meetings. The teams that usually wins this perennial game is the team that "outscores" the other one... not the team that plays the best defense and comes up with stops. And if the history of this series doesn't tell you enough, maybe the fact BYU scores 83 PPG overall or 90 PPG on a neutral floor is enough for you.
Or we might consider that UNLV played BYU tight in Provo (only a four-point loss) followed by a 14-point home win at the Thomas and Mack Center. Why is that important? Because neither of those games were even close to what BYU is capable of offensively, and they have some major revenge on their minds and would love nothing more than to score triple digits again tonight on UNLV's home floor in front of their fans. Since scoring 74 points in that 14-point loss to UNLV, BYU has scored 91, 92, 85, 82, 81, 71, 107 and 95 in their next eight games for an average of 88 PPG. And considering UNLV isn't really a team built on stifling defense, I have to believe BYU will score at least 80 points again tonight. Jimmer Fredette might not be getting any consideration for Player of the Year, but that doesn't mean this kid isn't capable of scoring 45 points again tonight (he had 45 in last night's win over TCU).
UNLV has averaged 75 PPG over their last six and scores 74 PPG for the season. Combine that with the fact they have scored at least 73 points in their last three meetings with BYU and you see why I like the OVER so much in tonight's game. BYU has gone OVER the total in seven of their last nine games while UNLV has finished OVER in three of their last four. The line is currently at a pick 'em, which also leads me to believe Vegas thinks this game is going to be close... which gives us the slim chance of overtime which will only help our cause. However, I don't think we'll need overtime tonight. I'm looking at a final score in the neighborhood of 84-79 tonight, which easily puts us over the number.
KANSAS STATE --- This is as close to a home game as Kansas State could have hoped for playing in Kansas City, and this tournament is setting up to be a Kansas/Kansas State Championship game in Kansas City and the locals wouldn't have it any other way. These two teams (Baylor and Kansas State) have already matched up once this season with the Wildcats outlasting Baylor, 76-74, down in Waco. Both of these teams are athletic all over the floor, but you've heard the saying (probably too often) that solid guard play wins tournament games. Well, as much as I respect Baylor's guards and what they've accomplished this season, I have to give the advantage to Kansas State's Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente. These two combined for 31 points in last night's 19-point win over a very good Oklahoma State team. But the contributions from Jamar Samuels (27 points last night) is what's going to set this team apart for this tournament and the Big Dance.
If the Wildcats can continue to get these type of numbers from some of their post players to go along with what we know Clemente and Pullen can do, this is going to be a very dangerous team that could be playing in April. Taking nothing away from Baylor and what they've accomplished this year, I just don't think they have the horses to hang with Kansas State for 40 minutes. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but respect for Tweety Carter and the Baylor Bears because of how scrappy they've played this year (including three straight wins over Texas), but in a 40-minute game in a basic home game for Kansas State, I just don't see how Baylor can get the job done. I like Kansas State by at least 6 tonight.
BOUGHT, PAID and CONFIRMED! GOOD LUCK!
THIS WEEK: +140 dimes
