STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 12/3 cont.
*** OKLAHOMA CITY (-1, O/U 208.5) @ TORONTO ***
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Kevin Durant is the face of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise. The league’s reigning scoring champion might have to start sharing more of that spotlight with third-year point guard Russell Westbrook. With Durant questionable with a sprained left knee, Westbrook and the Thunder will try to win their eighth straight on the road against an Eastern Conference opponent Friday night when they face the Toronto Raptors, who are looking to build on their best offensive performance of the season.
Durant, the NBA’s top scorer at 27.3 points per game after averaging a league-best 30.1 last season, missed Wednesday’s 123-120 triple-overtime win at New Jersey after getting injured in a 95-89 victory over New Orleans on Monday. Without Durant, Westbrook scored 38 points and grabbed a career-high 15 rebounds with nine assists. He is averaging 29.0 points, 9.0 assists and 5.3 boards as the Thunder have won all three times Durant has been sidelined this season.
“He’s improved leaps and bounds,” Durant said. “He’s taken a step up as a player. He carried us tonight.” Westbrook scored all 13 of the team’s points in the final period as Oklahoma City (13-6) posted the franchise’s first triple-overtime victory. “The guy keeps improving in front of our eyes every day,” coach Scott Brooks said of Westbrook, who scored 12 of his 25 points during a 14-0 fourth-quarter run Monday.
As an assistant on the USA team that won gold at the World Championship in Turkey in September, Raptors coach Jay Triano has seen plenty of Durant—the tournament MVP—and Westbrook. “(Westbrook is) a highlight film - he can do anything,” Triano said. “He goes past everybody. He goes over top of people. He’s one of the best physical specimens in the game right now. “He’s getting a chance now with Kevin getting a little bit banged up, where he’s starting to shine.”
With Raptors leading rebounder Reggie Evans out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his right foot, Triano is looking for his young guys to step up. Making his NBA debut Wednesday after suffering a right knee injury prior to training camp, first-round pick Ed Davis scored 11 points with six rebounds and two blocks in a 127-108 victory over Washington. “He’s got that look about him where it doesn’t look like he’s giving you (much), but then all of a sudden he’s at the rim blocking shots,” Triano said.
While Davis and Joey Dorsey will be expected to pick up the slack on the boards and help contain Thunder forward Jeff Green who scored a career-high 37 on Wednesday, the Raptors would like continued scoring from Andrea Bargnani, Sonny Weems and DeMar DeRozan. The trio combined for 56 points and shot 22 of 36 from the field as the Raptors shot a season best 58.0 percent Wednesday. “Everybody was on tonight, hitting jump shots and getting to the basket,” DeRozan said after scoring 20.
That wasn’t the case in the Thunder’s last visit to Air Canada Centre, when Toronto made 43.8 percent of its attempts in a 115-89 loss March 19. It was the Raptors’ most lopsided defeat at home since Nov. 16, 2005. Durant scored 31 and Green had 25 in that matchup as the Thunder snapped a three-game skid in Toronto. Oklahoma City posted another blowout at home, winning 119-99 on Feb. 28. Oklahoma City, 7-2 on the road, hasn’t lost to an East team away from home since falling 121-101 to Indiana on March 21.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 1; O/U 206
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.70
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.3, OPPONENT 107.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-11 ATS (+19.7 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 104.0, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.2, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--TORONTO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.3, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 57-35 against the 1rst half line (+19.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.4, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 24-7 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.3, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 56-32 OVER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.0, OPPONENT 54.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 37-17 OVER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.3, OPPONENT 54.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.3, Opponent 46.7 (Average first half point differential = +3.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (26-10).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (TORONTO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(38-11 since 1996.) (77.6%, +25.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.2, Opponent 96.1 (Total points scored = 196.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8).
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*** ORLANDO (-6.5, O/U 187) @ DETROIT ***
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The Orlando Magic came out flat against the Detroit Pistons earlier this week before pulling away late to win their fourth straight in the series. The Magic seemed to have fixed their first-half energy woes since then. Orlando looks to build on one of its best performances of the season and extend its season-high winning streak to six games when it visits the Pistons on Friday night.
The Magic are atop the Southeast Division and are expected to contend for the Eastern Conference crown, but didn’t look much like a championship-caliber team early against Detroit on Tuesday at home. Orlando fell behind by 12 points in the first quarter and matched a season low with 43 first-half points as Dwight Howard was pushed around in the paint. The Magic finally took over in the second half, outscoring the Pistons by 13 to win 90-79.
After the game, Magic coach San Van Gundy said his team’s first-half energy needed to improve. It didn’t take long for his team to get the message. One night after the listless win over Detroit, Orlando cruised to a 107-78 victory over Central Division-leading Chicago. The Magic built a 24-point halftime lead, finished with a 44-21 edge in rebounding, a 27-10 advantage in second-chance points and outscored the Bulls 46-26 in the paint.
“We just wanted to bring a lot of intensity,” Jameer Nelson said. “We brought it from jump ball to the end.” Nelson led Orlando with 24 points, while Vince Carter scored 20 of his 22 in the first two quarters. Howard finished with 13 points and 12 rebounds in 34 minutes, as the Magic improved to 13-1 when the four-time All-Star grabs at least 10 boards. “For a lot of reasons I thought this was our best game of the year,” Van Gundy said.
While Van Gundy liked what he saw from the Magic on Wednesday, Pistons coach John Kuester was quite displeased with his team’s performance in a 97-72 loss to Miami, Detroit’s third straight defeat. The Pistons finished with season lows in points and field goal percentage (36.4) Wednesday, and scored only nine points in the third quarter, missing 18 of 22 shots. “We couldn’t generate any offense,” Kuester said.
Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined for 17 points on 4 of 18 shooting, as Detroit got 31 points from its starters, the eighth-lowest total by a Piston starting five in the last 20 seasons. “There are going to be some adjustments going into the next game,” Kuester said. “There are going to be discussions on a number of areas.” One area that could see a change is Greg Monroe’s minutes.
Monroe led the Pistons with a career-best 15 points off the bench and had eight rebounds. The 6-foot-11 rookie also played sound defense against Howard on Tuesday. “The beautiful thing about him was watching his energy,” Kuester said after Wednesday’s loss. “He was working hard and was so impressive. I think that’s one of the things I was so pleased with.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 7; O/U 189.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -8.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -8.93
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 48-66 ATS (-24.6 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 93.2, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 41-59 ATS (-23.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 92.8, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 36-17 OVER (+17.3 Units) in home games versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 93.6, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 58-34 OVER (+20.6 Units) after allowing 80 points or less since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.9, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 37-21 against the 1rst half line (+19.7 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 49.9, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 34-20 against the 1rst half line (+17.3 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 48.2, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 98-66 UNDER (+25.8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 46.4, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 79-54 UNDER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 47.5, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 80 points or less.
(29-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 95.3 (Total points scored = 195)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (63.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-31).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 80 points or less 2 straight games.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 44.1, Opponent 44.5 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
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*** PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA (-7, O/U 193) ***
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Even without leading scorer Joe Johnson the Atlanta Hawks believe they are in good shape. Coming off a successful first game minus the injured four-time All-Star, the Hawks look to extend their winning streak to five games Friday night against the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. Hours after learning Johnson (17.1 points per game, 5.2 assists per game) would undergo elbow surgery that will sideline him four to six weeks, six Atlanta players scored in double figures during Wednesday’s 112-109 home win over Memphis.
“It shows that we can handle adversity,” said guard Jamal Crawford who had 16 points and eight assists. “Joe is our franchise player, and we can’t wait to have him back. But for now, everybody else has to step up.” Al Horford had 20 points while Josh Powell scored a season-high 16 off the bench and Mike Bibby added 15 as the Hawks improved to 15-20 when Johnson is out of the lineup since the guard joined the team in 2005-06.
Johnson had the surgery Thursday and will begin rehab Friday. “We knew we had to do it collectively,” Horford said. “Obviously we’ll miss Joe. At the same time it’s going to make us stronger as a team.” The Hawks’ four game winning streak is their longest since they opened the season 6-0 - a run which included a 104-101 victory at Philadelphia on Oct. 29. Horford had 20 points with 12 rebounds and Crawford added 19 points in that contest. Crawford has averaged 18.8 points on 52.1 percent shooting in his last four games versus the Sixers.
“They have so much offense,” 76ers coach Doug Collins told the team’s official website. “They have a lot of fire power. They are very athletic.” While Atlanta is averaging 105.8 points during its winning streak, the 76ers have not allowed more than 86 points in consecutive victories over New Jersey and Portland. They limited the Trail Blazers to 11 fourth quarter points and 37.0 percent shooting overall in a 88-79 home win Tuesday.
“I am so pleased with the way our guys are playing defense. They are terrific,” said Collins, whose club will now try to win three in a row for the first time since a five-game streak Jan. 31-Feb. 9. It figures to be a challenge. The 76ers are 1-9 on the road, where they have given up an average of 106.6 points during a seven-game skid. However, Philadelphia has split its last four games in Atlanta.
Elton Brand who scored a team-high 18 points against Portland, had 20 with eight rebounds against the Hawks earlier this season. Teammate Andre Iguodala had a season-high 27 points with 10 assists in that contest but was held to seven points Tuesday. He’s averaged 20.8 points and 8.5 assists in his last six games versus Atlanta.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 6.5; O/U 194.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Atlanta -8.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -6.79
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 68-43 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 92.6, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.3, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 95-56 OVER (+33.4 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 98.1, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--ATLANTA is 88-57 OVER (+25.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 103.8, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 17-40 against the 1rst half line (-27.4 Units) in home games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 46.7, OPPONENT 49.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ATLANTA is 31-51 against the 1rst half line (-25.1 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 45.3, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 62-40 OVER (+18.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 46.6, OPPONENT 47.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 28-12 OVER (+14.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 49.3, OPPONENT 53.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.
(61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.1, Opponent 49.1 (Average first half point differential = +0)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (121-93).
*** OKLAHOMA CITY (-1, O/U 208.5) @ TORONTO ***
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Kevin Durant is the face of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise. The league’s reigning scoring champion might have to start sharing more of that spotlight with third-year point guard Russell Westbrook. With Durant questionable with a sprained left knee, Westbrook and the Thunder will try to win their eighth straight on the road against an Eastern Conference opponent Friday night when they face the Toronto Raptors, who are looking to build on their best offensive performance of the season.
Durant, the NBA’s top scorer at 27.3 points per game after averaging a league-best 30.1 last season, missed Wednesday’s 123-120 triple-overtime win at New Jersey after getting injured in a 95-89 victory over New Orleans on Monday. Without Durant, Westbrook scored 38 points and grabbed a career-high 15 rebounds with nine assists. He is averaging 29.0 points, 9.0 assists and 5.3 boards as the Thunder have won all three times Durant has been sidelined this season.
“He’s improved leaps and bounds,” Durant said. “He’s taken a step up as a player. He carried us tonight.” Westbrook scored all 13 of the team’s points in the final period as Oklahoma City (13-6) posted the franchise’s first triple-overtime victory. “The guy keeps improving in front of our eyes every day,” coach Scott Brooks said of Westbrook, who scored 12 of his 25 points during a 14-0 fourth-quarter run Monday.
As an assistant on the USA team that won gold at the World Championship in Turkey in September, Raptors coach Jay Triano has seen plenty of Durant—the tournament MVP—and Westbrook. “(Westbrook is) a highlight film - he can do anything,” Triano said. “He goes past everybody. He goes over top of people. He’s one of the best physical specimens in the game right now. “He’s getting a chance now with Kevin getting a little bit banged up, where he’s starting to shine.”
With Raptors leading rebounder Reggie Evans out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his right foot, Triano is looking for his young guys to step up. Making his NBA debut Wednesday after suffering a right knee injury prior to training camp, first-round pick Ed Davis scored 11 points with six rebounds and two blocks in a 127-108 victory over Washington. “He’s got that look about him where it doesn’t look like he’s giving you (much), but then all of a sudden he’s at the rim blocking shots,” Triano said.
While Davis and Joey Dorsey will be expected to pick up the slack on the boards and help contain Thunder forward Jeff Green who scored a career-high 37 on Wednesday, the Raptors would like continued scoring from Andrea Bargnani, Sonny Weems and DeMar DeRozan. The trio combined for 56 points and shot 22 of 36 from the field as the Raptors shot a season best 58.0 percent Wednesday. “Everybody was on tonight, hitting jump shots and getting to the basket,” DeRozan said after scoring 20.
That wasn’t the case in the Thunder’s last visit to Air Canada Centre, when Toronto made 43.8 percent of its attempts in a 115-89 loss March 19. It was the Raptors’ most lopsided defeat at home since Nov. 16, 2005. Durant scored 31 and Green had 25 in that matchup as the Thunder snapped a three-game skid in Toronto. Oklahoma City posted another blowout at home, winning 119-99 on Feb. 28. Oklahoma City, 7-2 on the road, hasn’t lost to an East team away from home since falling 121-101 to Indiana on March 21.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 1; O/U 206
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.70
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.3, OPPONENT 107.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-11 ATS (+19.7 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 104.0, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.2, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--TORONTO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.3, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 57-35 against the 1rst half line (+19.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.4, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 24-7 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.3, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 56-32 OVER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.0, OPPONENT 54.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 37-17 OVER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.3, OPPONENT 54.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.3, Opponent 46.7 (Average first half point differential = +3.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (26-10).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (TORONTO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(38-11 since 1996.) (77.6%, +25.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.2, Opponent 96.1 (Total points scored = 196.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8).
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*** ORLANDO (-6.5, O/U 187) @ DETROIT ***
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The Orlando Magic came out flat against the Detroit Pistons earlier this week before pulling away late to win their fourth straight in the series. The Magic seemed to have fixed their first-half energy woes since then. Orlando looks to build on one of its best performances of the season and extend its season-high winning streak to six games when it visits the Pistons on Friday night.
The Magic are atop the Southeast Division and are expected to contend for the Eastern Conference crown, but didn’t look much like a championship-caliber team early against Detroit on Tuesday at home. Orlando fell behind by 12 points in the first quarter and matched a season low with 43 first-half points as Dwight Howard was pushed around in the paint. The Magic finally took over in the second half, outscoring the Pistons by 13 to win 90-79.
After the game, Magic coach San Van Gundy said his team’s first-half energy needed to improve. It didn’t take long for his team to get the message. One night after the listless win over Detroit, Orlando cruised to a 107-78 victory over Central Division-leading Chicago. The Magic built a 24-point halftime lead, finished with a 44-21 edge in rebounding, a 27-10 advantage in second-chance points and outscored the Bulls 46-26 in the paint.
“We just wanted to bring a lot of intensity,” Jameer Nelson said. “We brought it from jump ball to the end.” Nelson led Orlando with 24 points, while Vince Carter scored 20 of his 22 in the first two quarters. Howard finished with 13 points and 12 rebounds in 34 minutes, as the Magic improved to 13-1 when the four-time All-Star grabs at least 10 boards. “For a lot of reasons I thought this was our best game of the year,” Van Gundy said.
While Van Gundy liked what he saw from the Magic on Wednesday, Pistons coach John Kuester was quite displeased with his team’s performance in a 97-72 loss to Miami, Detroit’s third straight defeat. The Pistons finished with season lows in points and field goal percentage (36.4) Wednesday, and scored only nine points in the third quarter, missing 18 of 22 shots. “We couldn’t generate any offense,” Kuester said.
Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined for 17 points on 4 of 18 shooting, as Detroit got 31 points from its starters, the eighth-lowest total by a Piston starting five in the last 20 seasons. “There are going to be some adjustments going into the next game,” Kuester said. “There are going to be discussions on a number of areas.” One area that could see a change is Greg Monroe’s minutes.
Monroe led the Pistons with a career-best 15 points off the bench and had eight rebounds. The 6-foot-11 rookie also played sound defense against Howard on Tuesday. “The beautiful thing about him was watching his energy,” Kuester said after Wednesday’s loss. “He was working hard and was so impressive. I think that’s one of the things I was so pleased with.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 7; O/U 189.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -8.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -8.93
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 48-66 ATS (-24.6 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 93.2, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 41-59 ATS (-23.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 92.8, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 36-17 OVER (+17.3 Units) in home games versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 93.6, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 58-34 OVER (+20.6 Units) after allowing 80 points or less since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.9, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 37-21 against the 1rst half line (+19.7 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 49.9, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 34-20 against the 1rst half line (+17.3 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 48.2, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 98-66 UNDER (+25.8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 46.4, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 79-54 UNDER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 47.5, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 80 points or less.
(29-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 95.3 (Total points scored = 195)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (63.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-31).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 80 points or less 2 straight games.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 44.1, Opponent 44.5 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
__________________________________________
*** PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA (-7, O/U 193) ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
Even without leading scorer Joe Johnson the Atlanta Hawks believe they are in good shape. Coming off a successful first game minus the injured four-time All-Star, the Hawks look to extend their winning streak to five games Friday night against the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. Hours after learning Johnson (17.1 points per game, 5.2 assists per game) would undergo elbow surgery that will sideline him four to six weeks, six Atlanta players scored in double figures during Wednesday’s 112-109 home win over Memphis.
“It shows that we can handle adversity,” said guard Jamal Crawford who had 16 points and eight assists. “Joe is our franchise player, and we can’t wait to have him back. But for now, everybody else has to step up.” Al Horford had 20 points while Josh Powell scored a season-high 16 off the bench and Mike Bibby added 15 as the Hawks improved to 15-20 when Johnson is out of the lineup since the guard joined the team in 2005-06.
Johnson had the surgery Thursday and will begin rehab Friday. “We knew we had to do it collectively,” Horford said. “Obviously we’ll miss Joe. At the same time it’s going to make us stronger as a team.” The Hawks’ four game winning streak is their longest since they opened the season 6-0 - a run which included a 104-101 victory at Philadelphia on Oct. 29. Horford had 20 points with 12 rebounds and Crawford added 19 points in that contest. Crawford has averaged 18.8 points on 52.1 percent shooting in his last four games versus the Sixers.
“They have so much offense,” 76ers coach Doug Collins told the team’s official website. “They have a lot of fire power. They are very athletic.” While Atlanta is averaging 105.8 points during its winning streak, the 76ers have not allowed more than 86 points in consecutive victories over New Jersey and Portland. They limited the Trail Blazers to 11 fourth quarter points and 37.0 percent shooting overall in a 88-79 home win Tuesday.
“I am so pleased with the way our guys are playing defense. They are terrific,” said Collins, whose club will now try to win three in a row for the first time since a five-game streak Jan. 31-Feb. 9. It figures to be a challenge. The 76ers are 1-9 on the road, where they have given up an average of 106.6 points during a seven-game skid. However, Philadelphia has split its last four games in Atlanta.
Elton Brand who scored a team-high 18 points against Portland, had 20 with eight rebounds against the Hawks earlier this season. Teammate Andre Iguodala had a season-high 27 points with 10 assists in that contest but was held to seven points Tuesday. He’s averaged 20.8 points and 8.5 assists in his last six games versus Atlanta.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 6.5; O/U 194.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Atlanta -8.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -6.79
____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 68-43 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 92.6, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.3, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 95-56 OVER (+33.4 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 98.1, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--ATLANTA is 88-57 OVER (+25.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 103.8, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 17-40 against the 1rst half line (-27.4 Units) in home games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 46.7, OPPONENT 49.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ATLANTA is 31-51 against the 1rst half line (-25.1 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 45.3, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 62-40 OVER (+18.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 46.6, OPPONENT 47.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 28-12 OVER (+14.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 49.3, OPPONENT 53.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.
(61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.1, Opponent 49.1 (Average first half point differential = +0)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (121-93).
STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 12/3 cont.
*** NEW YORK @ NEW ORLEANS (-6.5, O/U 203) ***
----------------------------------------------------------------
The last time the New York Knicks won six straight road games, first-year New Orleans coach Monty Williams was a rookie playing for New York. The Knicks will try to accomplish that feat Friday night when they try to hand Williams’ Hornets a rare home loss. New York is over .500 this late in the season for the first time since it was 16-15 on Jan. 4, 2005. The Knicks have won seven of eight overall after beating New Jersey 111-100 on Tuesday.
“We are playing better and we can see we can get a lot better than this,” Coach Mike D’Antoni said. “We’re all excited now, but reality is we’ll go to New Orleans on Friday. That’s going to be hard to win.” The Knicks haven’t won six straight on the road since a seven-game run Dec. 27, 1994-Jan. 22, 1995. Williams, a first-round pick by New York in 1994, played sparingly as a reserve that season.
He’s now coaching a New Orleans team that’s been a surprise after winning 37 games last season. The Hornets are tied for the best home record in the NBA with an 8-1 mark after beating Charlotte 89-73 on Wednesday. “The hometown crowd is great,” center Emeka Okafor said. “It gave us that boost that we needed.” Under Williams, the Hornets are a vastly improved defensive team. They are near the top of the league in limiting opponents to 43.1 percent shooting after last season’s 48.3 percent mark - the NBA’s third-worst.
Defense was the key Wednesday night, as the Hornets limited the Bobcats to 40.8 percent from the field. New Orleans outscored Charlotte 24-11 in the fourth quarter. “It’s not going to be pretty all the time,” Williams said. “As a coach you’d like to have everything look nice and execute offense and guys come off screens and hit jump shots, but in the NBA you are going to have games like that and we are just glad we came out on the winning side.”
David West scored 22 points and Chris Paul handed out 14 assists. Paul will renew a rivalry with Knicks point guard Raymond Felton that began in college when the former was at Wake Forest and the latter at North Carolina. The two were drafted fourth and fifth, respectively, in 2005, and Paul has blossomed into a three-time All-Star. Felton, though, is enjoying the best season of his career in his first one with New York. He’s averaging 18.2 points and 8.1 assists as he gets accustomed to playing with Amare Stoudemire, who’s averaging 36.0 points the last two games.
“I think he’s getting more comfortable with what we’re doing,” said D’Antoni about Felton. “We’re getting much better spacing… There’s timing between the two that they have to develop. You never know if they will... and they have had it.” Stoudemire averaged 26.3 points on 62.7 percent shooting last season against the Hornets while with Phoenix, although he should be challenged by their improved defense. The Knicks have won four straight over New Orleans, overcoming Paul’s averages of 22.5 points and 10.8 assists in those games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 8.5; O/U 204.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans-10.01
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.8, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 102.5, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 213-167 OVER (+29.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 97.4, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW YORK is 97-63 OVER (+27.7 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 94.6, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-59 against the 1rst half line (-29.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 48.4, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 40-62 against the 1rst half line (-28.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 49.9, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 36-15 OVER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.6, OPPONENT 57.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 44-25 OVER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 53.9, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 107.2 (Total points scored = 212.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (51.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (NEW YORK) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.3, Opponent 54.6 (Total first half points scored = 107.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (50-29).
___________________________________
*** HOUSTON @ MEMPHIS (-5, O/U 204) ***
------------------------------------------------------
The Memphis Grizzlies beat the NBA’s two-time defending champions earlier this week, but couldn’t follow that victory with another in their next game. The Houston Rockets don’t want to suffer a similar letdown. Houston looks to build on its own momentum from beating the reigning champs Friday night when it visits the Grizzlies. Memphis held off the Los Angeles Lakers 98-96 on Tuesday behind 28 points from Mike Conley but seemed a step slow in the first half 24 hours later in Atlanta.
The Hawks scored 63 points in the game’s first 24 minutes en route to a 112-109 win. “We played well enough to win the game but we weren’t able to get it across,” said Conley, who’s made 10 of 13 shots in each of his last two games. “But we are getting better. We’re taking steps.” The Rockets are now coming off their own victory over Los Angeles.
The visiting Lakers led by seven points with seven minutes to play Wednesday, but Houston closed the game on a 25-8 run - which included 11 points from Shane Battier to rally for a 109-99 victory. “In the fourth quarter, we did all of the things we’ve struggled with all year,” coach Rick Adelman said. “We got most of the rebounds, we executed really well. Shane was huge it was just a solid win for us, obviously our best win of the year. We just hope we can build on this.”
The Rockets are still searching for consistency. Houston has won back-to-back games once - victories last month at Indiana and New York that represent its only two road triumphs in 10 tries. Battier knows the importance of changing that soon if the Rockets are going to climb out of the Southwest Division basement. They can get a little bit closer by beating Memphis. “This game is, in many ways, more important than the Lakers game,” Battier, who was originally drafted by Memphis, told the Rockets’ official website. “They’re in our division and they’re ahead of us in the standings, and if we want to start climbing the standings we need to start beating the teams that are ahead of us.”
The Grizzlies haven’t held many leads on Houston in recent meetings. The Rockets have won five straight games in the series by double digits, pulling down an average of 7.6 more rebounds while holding Memphis to 88.4 points per game. The Rockets’ big advantage has come in the backcourt, as Conley and O.J. Mayo have combined to averaged 19.0 points during Houston’s winning steak in the series. In the two games against Memphis since Houston acquired Kevin Martin, he and Aaron Brooks have combined for an average of 47.5 points.
Brooks, though, has been sidelined since early November with a sprained ankle, the same injury that’s kept Yao Ming out of the past 11 games. Yao could return as early as Tuesday, and Brooks could be back shortly after that. Battier has averaged just 8.5 points against his former team - his lowest mark versus any opponent - but Houston has been successful this season when he’s getting his points. The Rockets are 4-2 when Battier scores 12 or more and 2-10 in other games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 3; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Memphis-3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -3.44
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 41-20 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 99.1, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 16-31 ATS (-18.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 101.0, OPPONENT 104.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 60-37 UNDER (+19.3 Units) in home games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 96.6, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 39-20 UNDER (+16.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 98.1, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 49-27 against the 1rst half line (+19.3 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.2, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 44-25 against the 1rst half line (+16.3 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.9, OPPONENT 49.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 48-24 UNDER (+21.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 50.3, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 89-50 UNDER (+34.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 45.7, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 5*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog.
(36-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 199.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.8, Opponent 96.7 (Total points scored = 193.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (59.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 (MEMPHIS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.7, Opponent 47.9 (Total first half points scored = 97.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12).
____________________________________________
*** CHICAGO @ BOSTON (-5, O/U 190) ***
----------------------------------------------------
The Chicago Bulls were hoping the addition of Carlos Boozer would help them develop into one of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. They evidently still have a long way to go before joining the ranks of the Boston Celtics. The Bulls look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss in Boozer’s debut Friday night when they visit the Atlantic Division leading Celtics, winners of five in a row.
Returning home from a 4-3 circus trip - its first winning record on the annual two-week journey since 1997 - Chicago was eager to face Southeast Division-leading Orlando on Wednesday with Boozer finally in the lineup. The Bulls were hopeful to show that they could stack up against one of the East’s best teams, but were completely outplayed in a 107-78 defeat. Derrick Rose finished with a season-low 15 points - 10.8 fewer than his team-leading average - and Joakim Noah second in the NBA with an average of 12.4 rebounds, failed to grab one in 25 minutes.
Chicago was outrebounded by 23 and established a franchise low with 21 boards. Boozer, who missed the preseason plus the start of the regular season because of a broken right hand, looked sluggish, finishing with just five points and two rebounds in 22 minutes. “I think our team is a lot better than we showed,” said Boozer, Chicago’s top summer free-agent acquisition. “We’re going to move forward.”
Chicago is hoping to move into the ranks of the conference’s elite teams with the Magic and Celtics. Although the Bulls pushed Boston to overtime in 110-105 loss Nov. 5, defeats like Wednesday’s makes it tougher for them to be considered a serious contender. “We have to fight a lot harder,” Thibodeau said. Thibodeau knows what it takes to win a title. Before being named Chicago’s coach over the summer, he was an assistant to Boston coach Doc Rivers for three seasons and was a part of the Celtics’ 2007-08 championship.
Rivers’ team is again playing at a championship level, tied atop the East with the Magic, and 8-1 at home. The Celtics received a bit of a scare Wednesday against Portland, blowing almost all of a 16-point, fourth-quarter lead before winning 99-95. Ray Allen missed his first five 3-point attempts before hitting one with 10.7 seconds left for the game’s final points. “We didn’t go through the finish line,” said forward Paul Pierce who matched a season best with 28 points.
“We didn’t finish them off like we had the chance. Up 14 we could have pushed it to 20. I just thought we tried to let the time run out. I’m glad we ended up on the winning side of it.” Boston has won five straight, thanks to some strong play from the frontcourt. Kevin Garnett had 17 points Wednesday, while Glen Davis scored 16 and Shaquille O’Neal added 14. The Celtics have outscored opponents by 16.4 points in the paint during their winning streak, and now face a Chicago team that was outscored 46-26 in the post by Orlando.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 3.5; O/U 196
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -4.37
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 51-88 ATS (-45.8 Units) in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 96.9, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--BOSTON is 56-91 ATS (-44.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 96.9, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHICAGO is 24-8 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 100.0, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.3, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 23-8 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.5, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 44-23 against the 1rst half line (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 23-7 against the 1rst half line (+15.3 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 53-24 OVER (+25.8.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.3, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 32-8 OVER (+21.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHICAGO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 53.1 (Total first half points scored = 102.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(57-24 since 1996.) (70.4%, +30.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-41)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 98.9, Opponent 100.7 (Average point differential = -1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 41 (50.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (36-17).
*** NEW YORK @ NEW ORLEANS (-6.5, O/U 203) ***
----------------------------------------------------------------
The last time the New York Knicks won six straight road games, first-year New Orleans coach Monty Williams was a rookie playing for New York. The Knicks will try to accomplish that feat Friday night when they try to hand Williams’ Hornets a rare home loss. New York is over .500 this late in the season for the first time since it was 16-15 on Jan. 4, 2005. The Knicks have won seven of eight overall after beating New Jersey 111-100 on Tuesday.
“We are playing better and we can see we can get a lot better than this,” Coach Mike D’Antoni said. “We’re all excited now, but reality is we’ll go to New Orleans on Friday. That’s going to be hard to win.” The Knicks haven’t won six straight on the road since a seven-game run Dec. 27, 1994-Jan. 22, 1995. Williams, a first-round pick by New York in 1994, played sparingly as a reserve that season.
He’s now coaching a New Orleans team that’s been a surprise after winning 37 games last season. The Hornets are tied for the best home record in the NBA with an 8-1 mark after beating Charlotte 89-73 on Wednesday. “The hometown crowd is great,” center Emeka Okafor said. “It gave us that boost that we needed.” Under Williams, the Hornets are a vastly improved defensive team. They are near the top of the league in limiting opponents to 43.1 percent shooting after last season’s 48.3 percent mark - the NBA’s third-worst.
Defense was the key Wednesday night, as the Hornets limited the Bobcats to 40.8 percent from the field. New Orleans outscored Charlotte 24-11 in the fourth quarter. “It’s not going to be pretty all the time,” Williams said. “As a coach you’d like to have everything look nice and execute offense and guys come off screens and hit jump shots, but in the NBA you are going to have games like that and we are just glad we came out on the winning side.”
David West scored 22 points and Chris Paul handed out 14 assists. Paul will renew a rivalry with Knicks point guard Raymond Felton that began in college when the former was at Wake Forest and the latter at North Carolina. The two were drafted fourth and fifth, respectively, in 2005, and Paul has blossomed into a three-time All-Star. Felton, though, is enjoying the best season of his career in his first one with New York. He’s averaging 18.2 points and 8.1 assists as he gets accustomed to playing with Amare Stoudemire, who’s averaging 36.0 points the last two games.
“I think he’s getting more comfortable with what we’re doing,” said D’Antoni about Felton. “We’re getting much better spacing… There’s timing between the two that they have to develop. You never know if they will... and they have had it.” Stoudemire averaged 26.3 points on 62.7 percent shooting last season against the Hornets while with Phoenix, although he should be challenged by their improved defense. The Knicks have won four straight over New Orleans, overcoming Paul’s averages of 22.5 points and 10.8 assists in those games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 8.5; O/U 204.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans-10.01
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.8, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 102.5, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 213-167 OVER (+29.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 97.4, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW YORK is 97-63 OVER (+27.7 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 94.6, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-59 against the 1rst half line (-29.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 48.4, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 40-62 against the 1rst half line (-28.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 49.9, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 36-15 OVER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.6, OPPONENT 57.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 44-25 OVER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 53.9, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 107.2 (Total points scored = 212.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (51.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (NEW YORK) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.3, Opponent 54.6 (Total first half points scored = 107.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (50-29).
___________________________________
*** HOUSTON @ MEMPHIS (-5, O/U 204) ***
------------------------------------------------------
The Memphis Grizzlies beat the NBA’s two-time defending champions earlier this week, but couldn’t follow that victory with another in their next game. The Houston Rockets don’t want to suffer a similar letdown. Houston looks to build on its own momentum from beating the reigning champs Friday night when it visits the Grizzlies. Memphis held off the Los Angeles Lakers 98-96 on Tuesday behind 28 points from Mike Conley but seemed a step slow in the first half 24 hours later in Atlanta.
The Hawks scored 63 points in the game’s first 24 minutes en route to a 112-109 win. “We played well enough to win the game but we weren’t able to get it across,” said Conley, who’s made 10 of 13 shots in each of his last two games. “But we are getting better. We’re taking steps.” The Rockets are now coming off their own victory over Los Angeles.
The visiting Lakers led by seven points with seven minutes to play Wednesday, but Houston closed the game on a 25-8 run - which included 11 points from Shane Battier to rally for a 109-99 victory. “In the fourth quarter, we did all of the things we’ve struggled with all year,” coach Rick Adelman said. “We got most of the rebounds, we executed really well. Shane was huge it was just a solid win for us, obviously our best win of the year. We just hope we can build on this.”
The Rockets are still searching for consistency. Houston has won back-to-back games once - victories last month at Indiana and New York that represent its only two road triumphs in 10 tries. Battier knows the importance of changing that soon if the Rockets are going to climb out of the Southwest Division basement. They can get a little bit closer by beating Memphis. “This game is, in many ways, more important than the Lakers game,” Battier, who was originally drafted by Memphis, told the Rockets’ official website. “They’re in our division and they’re ahead of us in the standings, and if we want to start climbing the standings we need to start beating the teams that are ahead of us.”
The Grizzlies haven’t held many leads on Houston in recent meetings. The Rockets have won five straight games in the series by double digits, pulling down an average of 7.6 more rebounds while holding Memphis to 88.4 points per game. The Rockets’ big advantage has come in the backcourt, as Conley and O.J. Mayo have combined to averaged 19.0 points during Houston’s winning steak in the series. In the two games against Memphis since Houston acquired Kevin Martin, he and Aaron Brooks have combined for an average of 47.5 points.
Brooks, though, has been sidelined since early November with a sprained ankle, the same injury that’s kept Yao Ming out of the past 11 games. Yao could return as early as Tuesday, and Brooks could be back shortly after that. Battier has averaged just 8.5 points against his former team - his lowest mark versus any opponent - but Houston has been successful this season when he’s getting his points. The Rockets are 4-2 when Battier scores 12 or more and 2-10 in other games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 3; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Memphis-3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -3.44
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 41-20 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 99.1, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 16-31 ATS (-18.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 101.0, OPPONENT 104.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 60-37 UNDER (+19.3 Units) in home games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 96.6, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 39-20 UNDER (+16.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 98.1, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 49-27 against the 1rst half line (+19.3 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.2, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 44-25 against the 1rst half line (+16.3 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.9, OPPONENT 49.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 48-24 UNDER (+21.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 50.3, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 89-50 UNDER (+34.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 45.7, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 5*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog.
(36-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 199.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.8, Opponent 96.7 (Total points scored = 193.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (59.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 (MEMPHIS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.7, Opponent 47.9 (Total first half points scored = 97.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12).
____________________________________________
*** CHICAGO @ BOSTON (-5, O/U 190) ***
----------------------------------------------------
The Chicago Bulls were hoping the addition of Carlos Boozer would help them develop into one of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. They evidently still have a long way to go before joining the ranks of the Boston Celtics. The Bulls look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss in Boozer’s debut Friday night when they visit the Atlantic Division leading Celtics, winners of five in a row.
Returning home from a 4-3 circus trip - its first winning record on the annual two-week journey since 1997 - Chicago was eager to face Southeast Division-leading Orlando on Wednesday with Boozer finally in the lineup. The Bulls were hopeful to show that they could stack up against one of the East’s best teams, but were completely outplayed in a 107-78 defeat. Derrick Rose finished with a season-low 15 points - 10.8 fewer than his team-leading average - and Joakim Noah second in the NBA with an average of 12.4 rebounds, failed to grab one in 25 minutes.
Chicago was outrebounded by 23 and established a franchise low with 21 boards. Boozer, who missed the preseason plus the start of the regular season because of a broken right hand, looked sluggish, finishing with just five points and two rebounds in 22 minutes. “I think our team is a lot better than we showed,” said Boozer, Chicago’s top summer free-agent acquisition. “We’re going to move forward.”
Chicago is hoping to move into the ranks of the conference’s elite teams with the Magic and Celtics. Although the Bulls pushed Boston to overtime in 110-105 loss Nov. 5, defeats like Wednesday’s makes it tougher for them to be considered a serious contender. “We have to fight a lot harder,” Thibodeau said. Thibodeau knows what it takes to win a title. Before being named Chicago’s coach over the summer, he was an assistant to Boston coach Doc Rivers for three seasons and was a part of the Celtics’ 2007-08 championship.
Rivers’ team is again playing at a championship level, tied atop the East with the Magic, and 8-1 at home. The Celtics received a bit of a scare Wednesday against Portland, blowing almost all of a 16-point, fourth-quarter lead before winning 99-95. Ray Allen missed his first five 3-point attempts before hitting one with 10.7 seconds left for the game’s final points. “We didn’t go through the finish line,” said forward Paul Pierce who matched a season best with 28 points.
“We didn’t finish them off like we had the chance. Up 14 we could have pushed it to 20. I just thought we tried to let the time run out. I’m glad we ended up on the winning side of it.” Boston has won five straight, thanks to some strong play from the frontcourt. Kevin Garnett had 17 points Wednesday, while Glen Davis scored 16 and Shaquille O’Neal added 14. The Celtics have outscored opponents by 16.4 points in the paint during their winning streak, and now face a Chicago team that was outscored 46-26 in the post by Orlando.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 3.5; O/U 196
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -4.37
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 51-88 ATS (-45.8 Units) in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 96.9, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--BOSTON is 56-91 ATS (-44.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 96.9, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHICAGO is 24-8 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 100.0, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.3, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 23-8 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.5, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 44-23 against the 1rst half line (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 23-7 against the 1rst half line (+15.3 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 53-24 OVER (+25.8.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.3, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 32-8 OVER (+21.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHICAGO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 53.1 (Total first half points scored = 102.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(57-24 since 1996.) (70.4%, +30.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-41)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 98.9, Opponent 100.7 (Average point differential = -1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 41 (50.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (36-17).
STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 12/3 cont.
*** MINNESOTA @ SAN ANTONIO (-13, O/U 213.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------
The San Antonio Spurs not only own the NBA’s best record but also have a 13-game winning streak over the Minnesota Timberwolves, owners of the second-worst mark in the league. Despite all that, the Spurs probably won’t take the Timberwolves lightly considering what happened the last time they met. San Antonio tries to bounce back from a defeat to the NBA’s worst team when it hosts Minnesota, which is seeking its first win at the AT&T Center in nearly seven years, on Friday night.
The Spurs went into Wednesday’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers riding an 18-game winning streak in the series, but fell 90-85. San Antonio’s starters had a season-low 46 points on 37.8 percent shooting, with Tim Duncan scoring eight on 2 of 8 from the floor and Tony Parker finishing with two points on 1-of-6 shooting. “We played badly, bottom line,” said Duncan, who recorded a triple-double in a 20-point road victory over Golden State one night earlier.
The Spurs lost for just the second time in 16 games and fell to the Clippers for the first time since March 7, 2006. “It’s the NBA, and anybody can beat anybody at any time,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. The Spurs hope to avoid a similar fate against a Timberwolves team it hasn’t lost to since a 103-101 overtime defeat Jan. 3, 2007. San Antonio had a close call in Minnesota last Wednesday, however, falling behind by 21 before rallying to win 113-109 in overtime. Manu Ginobili scored 14 of his 26 in the fourth quarter for the Spurs, who didn’t take their first lead until 49 seconds remained in the extra period.
San Antonio hopes things go a bit easier at the AT&T Center, where it won both games against Minnesota last season by an average of 20.0 points. The Spurs, who open a six-game homestand and play nine of their next 10 in San Antonio, have won 12 straight at home over the Timberwolves since January 14th, 2004. San Antonio isn’t the only city that has given Minnesota trouble. The Timberwolves are 1-9 on the road and have one win in their last 22 games away from the Target Center.
Minnesota arrives in San Antonio following a 100-86 loss at Dallas on Wednesday night, its fifth straight defeat. Michael Beasley had a team-high 16 points for the Timberwolves, who shot 39.0 percent from the floor and turned the ball over 17 times. Turnovers have been an ongoing problem for Minnesota, which is averaging a league-worst 17.8. “We turned the ball over way too much,” Coach Kurt Rambis said. “And guys got discouraged. Even when it got into the 10-point range in the third quarter, our guys still had their heads down, that was a little bit of a disappointment.
So, the guys are young, they’ve got to get to the point where they do little things that turn the game in their favor.” Kevin Love the league’s top rebounder, struggled a bit against the Mavericks with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting and 15 boards. The forward had averaged 25.7 points and 20.3 boards in his previous three games, including a 32-point, 22-rebound effort against the Spurs.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 15.5; O/U 215.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -17
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -18.06
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 98.1, OPPONENT 86.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 97.6, OPPONENT 110.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.8, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-3 OVER (+15.5 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 104.3, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 11-35 against the 1rst half line (-27.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.9, OPPONENT 57.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 15-37 against the 1rst half line (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.0, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 18-3 OVER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 59.1, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 20-4 OVER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 50.3, OPPONENT 61.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 214.8
The average score in these games was: Team 111.9, Opponent 108.7 (Total points scored = 220.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-13).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game.
(46-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (73%, +27.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.6, Opponent 54.3 (Total first half points scored = 108.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (54-37).
___________________________________
*** INDIANA @ PHOENIX (-2.5, O/U 212) ***
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The Indiana Pacers are coming off one of their most uninspired efforts of the season. A matchup with the Phoenix Suns could give the Pacers some more fight. Indiana looks to close its four-game western swing on a positive note Friday night while the Suns try to build some momentum as they open a home-heavy portion of their schedule. Going for their season high third straight victory following wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento, the Pacers trailed by as many as 19 points in the first quarter of Wednesday’s 110-88 loss to Utah.
“The Jazz are right in the hunt in the West and we’re trying to get a playoff spot,” Pacers coach Jim O’Brien said. “There’s a world of difference between their franchise and ours right now.” While the Pacers are off to their best start in four seasons and trail Central-leading Chicago by just one-half game, they’ll have to avoid performances like the one against the Jazz if they’re going to end their five-year playoff drought. Indiana scored its third-fewest points in a game this season, committed 18 turnovers and was outrebounded 46-32.
The Pacers committed just nine turnovers, but also were outrebounded by 14 in a 113-105 loss in Phoenix on March 6 in a contest marred by two fights and eight technical fouls. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger (22.2 points per game) likely won’t receive a warm welcome at US Airways Center after getting into a skirmish with Suns center Channing Frye in the final minute of the third quarter of that matchup. Pacers center Roy Hibbert and Suns shooting guard Jason Richardson were also whistled for technicals, which came after Indiana’s Josh McRoberts tussled with former Sun Louis Amundson.
Granger, who had a team-high 24 points with seven rebounds in the loss to the Suns, will try to find his shooting touch after missing 10 of 16 and scoring 14 versus the Jazz. Facing a Suns team allowing a league-high 111.3 points per game could help the Pacers forward do that. Phoenix though, returns home following a solid defensive effort in Thursday’s 107-101 victory over Golden State. The Suns could have held the Warriors under 100 points if not for an uncontested layup by Stephen Curry with 15 seconds left.
“We played a really good defensive game - we almost held them to 100 points,” Richardson said after scoring 25. ” …This is a step forward in the right direction. We have to look at the film and get ready for tomorrow’s game.” The Pacers will have to be ready for Richardson, who is averaging 31.0 points and shooting 63.8 percent from the field - including 15 of 22 from 3-point range - in the last three games. Richardson hit four 3s and scored 20 points with 10 boards in the Pacers’ last visit to Phoenix. The Suns, who play five of six at home, have lost just three times in Indiana’s last 14 trips to Arizona.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Phoenix by 3.5; O/U 210.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -0.79
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 41-20 ATS (+18.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-21 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 102.0, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 27-10 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.6, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 39-21 OVER (+15.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 14-29 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.8, OPPONENT 56.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 40-18 against the 1rst half line (+20.2 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.0, OPPONENT 53.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 55.3, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 56-35 OVER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.7, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 42-21 OVER (+18.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.8, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more.
(31-9 since 1996.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-10)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 110.8, Opponent 104.2 (Average point differential = +6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (INDIANA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53, Opponent 49.2 (Average first half point differential = +3.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-78).
___________________________________
*** LA CLIPPERS @ DENVER (-10, O/U 211) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
Even with Carmelo Anthony making an early exit in each of the last two games, the Denver Nuggets have still been able to come out on top. The Nuggets might need their All-Star forward to stick around Friday night the way the Los Angeles Clippers have fared against some of the league’s top teams. Denver looks to post its sixth straight victory overall and ninth in a row at home against the Clippers, who are still searching for their first road win.
Anthony, among the league leaders with 23.2 points per game, scored two and had his streak of 134 regular-season games in double digits snapped in Sunday’s 138-133 win against Phoenix after taking himself out 2:48 into the contest with flu-like symptoms. The Nuggets found themselves without Anthony for the final 14:40 of Wednesday’s 105-94 win over Milwaukee after he picked up two technicals for arguing a non-call. He finished with 14 points.
“We were in a good place when ‘Melo left and I thought we kept it up and sustained it and finished off the game for the first time in a while in the fourth quarter,” said Coach George Karl, whose team has won seven in a row at home. The solid play of swingman J.R. Smith has helped negate Anthony’s absences and has been a major boost for a bench that has scored 109 points in the last two games.
Smith, who played 65 seconds during a three-game stretch last month, has re-dedicated himself and is back in Karl’s good graces. Smith followed Sunday’s season-high 30-point performance with 20 and a career high-tying 10 rebounds against the Bucks. “When I got those DNPs two weeks ago it really set into my mind that I’ve got to change the way I look at things,” Smith told the NBA’s official website. “Come in here with my head up and work hard. That’s all they ask for two, three hours a day. It’s the least I could do.”
With the Clippers sparked by the return of point guard Baron Davis who missed the previous 10 games with a sore knee, coach Vinny Del Negro was pleased with the effort in Wednesday’s 90-85 victory over NBA-best San Antonio. “Baron gave us a big boost,” Del Negro, whose team has won three of five, told the Clippers’ official website. “Overall, just a nice solid team effort.” While three of Los Angeles’ victories are against Oklahoma City, New Orleans and the Spurs—who are a combined 41-14—the Clippers are yielding 109.1 points per game while posting an 0-8 road record.
Led by Anthony’s 30 points, the Nuggets won their third in a row over the Clippers and eighth straight in this matchup in Denver, 111-104 on Nov. 5. Blake Griffin had 26 points and 10 rebounds for Los Angeles. Griffin, the Western Conference rookie of the month in November, is averaging 29.8 points, 14.0 boards and 4.7 assists over his last six games. Griffin, though, faces a tough test as he gets his first look at Nene, who missed last month’s matchup with a left groin strain. Nene is averaging 16.4 points and 8.4 rebounds during the Nuggets’ five-game win streak.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by12.5; O/U 211.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -12.01
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 15-36 ATS (-24.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.2, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.9, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA CLIPPERS are 39-17 OVER (+20.3 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 96.2, OPPONENT 109.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 29-11 OVER (+16.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 17-32 against the 1rst half line (-18.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 52.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 18-32 against the 1rst half line (-17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.9, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 97-58 OVER (+33.2 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.1, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 67-36 OVER (+27.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 5.5 to 7 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 48.7, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 38-19 OVER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 51.2, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (DENVER) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after a win by 10 points or more.
(29-5 since 1996.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109
The average first half score in these games was: Team 59.6, Opponent 54.8 (Total first half points scored = 114.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
*** MINNESOTA @ SAN ANTONIO (-13, O/U 213.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------
The San Antonio Spurs not only own the NBA’s best record but also have a 13-game winning streak over the Minnesota Timberwolves, owners of the second-worst mark in the league. Despite all that, the Spurs probably won’t take the Timberwolves lightly considering what happened the last time they met. San Antonio tries to bounce back from a defeat to the NBA’s worst team when it hosts Minnesota, which is seeking its first win at the AT&T Center in nearly seven years, on Friday night.
The Spurs went into Wednesday’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers riding an 18-game winning streak in the series, but fell 90-85. San Antonio’s starters had a season-low 46 points on 37.8 percent shooting, with Tim Duncan scoring eight on 2 of 8 from the floor and Tony Parker finishing with two points on 1-of-6 shooting. “We played badly, bottom line,” said Duncan, who recorded a triple-double in a 20-point road victory over Golden State one night earlier.
The Spurs lost for just the second time in 16 games and fell to the Clippers for the first time since March 7, 2006. “It’s the NBA, and anybody can beat anybody at any time,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. The Spurs hope to avoid a similar fate against a Timberwolves team it hasn’t lost to since a 103-101 overtime defeat Jan. 3, 2007. San Antonio had a close call in Minnesota last Wednesday, however, falling behind by 21 before rallying to win 113-109 in overtime. Manu Ginobili scored 14 of his 26 in the fourth quarter for the Spurs, who didn’t take their first lead until 49 seconds remained in the extra period.
San Antonio hopes things go a bit easier at the AT&T Center, where it won both games against Minnesota last season by an average of 20.0 points. The Spurs, who open a six-game homestand and play nine of their next 10 in San Antonio, have won 12 straight at home over the Timberwolves since January 14th, 2004. San Antonio isn’t the only city that has given Minnesota trouble. The Timberwolves are 1-9 on the road and have one win in their last 22 games away from the Target Center.
Minnesota arrives in San Antonio following a 100-86 loss at Dallas on Wednesday night, its fifth straight defeat. Michael Beasley had a team-high 16 points for the Timberwolves, who shot 39.0 percent from the floor and turned the ball over 17 times. Turnovers have been an ongoing problem for Minnesota, which is averaging a league-worst 17.8. “We turned the ball over way too much,” Coach Kurt Rambis said. “And guys got discouraged. Even when it got into the 10-point range in the third quarter, our guys still had their heads down, that was a little bit of a disappointment.
So, the guys are young, they’ve got to get to the point where they do little things that turn the game in their favor.” Kevin Love the league’s top rebounder, struggled a bit against the Mavericks with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting and 15 boards. The forward had averaged 25.7 points and 20.3 boards in his previous three games, including a 32-point, 22-rebound effort against the Spurs.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 15.5; O/U 215.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -17
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -18.06
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 98.1, OPPONENT 86.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 97.6, OPPONENT 110.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.8, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-3 OVER (+15.5 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 104.3, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 11-35 against the 1rst half line (-27.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.9, OPPONENT 57.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 15-37 against the 1rst half line (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.0, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 18-3 OVER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 59.1, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 20-4 OVER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 50.3, OPPONENT 61.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 214.8
The average score in these games was: Team 111.9, Opponent 108.7 (Total points scored = 220.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-13).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game.
(46-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (73%, +27.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.6, Opponent 54.3 (Total first half points scored = 108.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (54-37).
___________________________________
*** INDIANA @ PHOENIX (-2.5, O/U 212) ***
------------------------------------------------------
The Indiana Pacers are coming off one of their most uninspired efforts of the season. A matchup with the Phoenix Suns could give the Pacers some more fight. Indiana looks to close its four-game western swing on a positive note Friday night while the Suns try to build some momentum as they open a home-heavy portion of their schedule. Going for their season high third straight victory following wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento, the Pacers trailed by as many as 19 points in the first quarter of Wednesday’s 110-88 loss to Utah.
“The Jazz are right in the hunt in the West and we’re trying to get a playoff spot,” Pacers coach Jim O’Brien said. “There’s a world of difference between their franchise and ours right now.” While the Pacers are off to their best start in four seasons and trail Central-leading Chicago by just one-half game, they’ll have to avoid performances like the one against the Jazz if they’re going to end their five-year playoff drought. Indiana scored its third-fewest points in a game this season, committed 18 turnovers and was outrebounded 46-32.
The Pacers committed just nine turnovers, but also were outrebounded by 14 in a 113-105 loss in Phoenix on March 6 in a contest marred by two fights and eight technical fouls. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger (22.2 points per game) likely won’t receive a warm welcome at US Airways Center after getting into a skirmish with Suns center Channing Frye in the final minute of the third quarter of that matchup. Pacers center Roy Hibbert and Suns shooting guard Jason Richardson were also whistled for technicals, which came after Indiana’s Josh McRoberts tussled with former Sun Louis Amundson.
Granger, who had a team-high 24 points with seven rebounds in the loss to the Suns, will try to find his shooting touch after missing 10 of 16 and scoring 14 versus the Jazz. Facing a Suns team allowing a league-high 111.3 points per game could help the Pacers forward do that. Phoenix though, returns home following a solid defensive effort in Thursday’s 107-101 victory over Golden State. The Suns could have held the Warriors under 100 points if not for an uncontested layup by Stephen Curry with 15 seconds left.
“We played a really good defensive game - we almost held them to 100 points,” Richardson said after scoring 25. ” …This is a step forward in the right direction. We have to look at the film and get ready for tomorrow’s game.” The Pacers will have to be ready for Richardson, who is averaging 31.0 points and shooting 63.8 percent from the field - including 15 of 22 from 3-point range - in the last three games. Richardson hit four 3s and scored 20 points with 10 boards in the Pacers’ last visit to Phoenix. The Suns, who play five of six at home, have lost just three times in Indiana’s last 14 trips to Arizona.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Phoenix by 3.5; O/U 210.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -0.79
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 41-20 ATS (+18.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-21 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 102.0, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 27-10 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.6, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 39-21 OVER (+15.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 14-29 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.8, OPPONENT 56.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 40-18 against the 1rst half line (+20.2 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.0, OPPONENT 53.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 55.3, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 56-35 OVER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.7, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 42-21 OVER (+18.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.8, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more.
(31-9 since 1996.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-10)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 110.8, Opponent 104.2 (Average point differential = +6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (INDIANA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53, Opponent 49.2 (Average first half point differential = +3.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-78).
___________________________________
*** LA CLIPPERS @ DENVER (-10, O/U 211) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
Even with Carmelo Anthony making an early exit in each of the last two games, the Denver Nuggets have still been able to come out on top. The Nuggets might need their All-Star forward to stick around Friday night the way the Los Angeles Clippers have fared against some of the league’s top teams. Denver looks to post its sixth straight victory overall and ninth in a row at home against the Clippers, who are still searching for their first road win.
Anthony, among the league leaders with 23.2 points per game, scored two and had his streak of 134 regular-season games in double digits snapped in Sunday’s 138-133 win against Phoenix after taking himself out 2:48 into the contest with flu-like symptoms. The Nuggets found themselves without Anthony for the final 14:40 of Wednesday’s 105-94 win over Milwaukee after he picked up two technicals for arguing a non-call. He finished with 14 points.
“We were in a good place when ‘Melo left and I thought we kept it up and sustained it and finished off the game for the first time in a while in the fourth quarter,” said Coach George Karl, whose team has won seven in a row at home. The solid play of swingman J.R. Smith has helped negate Anthony’s absences and has been a major boost for a bench that has scored 109 points in the last two games.
Smith, who played 65 seconds during a three-game stretch last month, has re-dedicated himself and is back in Karl’s good graces. Smith followed Sunday’s season-high 30-point performance with 20 and a career high-tying 10 rebounds against the Bucks. “When I got those DNPs two weeks ago it really set into my mind that I’ve got to change the way I look at things,” Smith told the NBA’s official website. “Come in here with my head up and work hard. That’s all they ask for two, three hours a day. It’s the least I could do.”
With the Clippers sparked by the return of point guard Baron Davis who missed the previous 10 games with a sore knee, coach Vinny Del Negro was pleased with the effort in Wednesday’s 90-85 victory over NBA-best San Antonio. “Baron gave us a big boost,” Del Negro, whose team has won three of five, told the Clippers’ official website. “Overall, just a nice solid team effort.” While three of Los Angeles’ victories are against Oklahoma City, New Orleans and the Spurs—who are a combined 41-14—the Clippers are yielding 109.1 points per game while posting an 0-8 road record.
Led by Anthony’s 30 points, the Nuggets won their third in a row over the Clippers and eighth straight in this matchup in Denver, 111-104 on Nov. 5. Blake Griffin had 26 points and 10 rebounds for Los Angeles. Griffin, the Western Conference rookie of the month in November, is averaging 29.8 points, 14.0 boards and 4.7 assists over his last six games. Griffin, though, faces a tough test as he gets his first look at Nene, who missed last month’s matchup with a left groin strain. Nene is averaging 16.4 points and 8.4 rebounds during the Nuggets’ five-game win streak.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by12.5; O/U 211.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -12.01
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 15-36 ATS (-24.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.2, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.9, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA CLIPPERS are 39-17 OVER (+20.3 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 96.2, OPPONENT 109.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 29-11 OVER (+16.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 17-32 against the 1rst half line (-18.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 52.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 18-32 against the 1rst half line (-17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.9, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 97-58 OVER (+33.2 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.1, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 67-36 OVER (+27.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 5.5 to 7 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 48.7, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 38-19 OVER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 51.2, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (DENVER) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after a win by 10 points or more.
(29-5 since 1996.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109
The average first half score in these games was: Team 59.6, Opponent 54.8 (Total first half points scored = 114.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 12/3 cont.
*** SACRAMENTO @ LA LAKERS (-12, O/U 200.5) ***
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Los Angeles Lakers have lost four games in a row for the first time since April 2007, Pau Gasol has a strained hamstring and Andrew Bynum is still a few weeks away from returning from his latest knee injury. That still isn’t enough reason for Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson to panic. A loss to the stumbling Sacramento Kings at Staples Center might do the trick, but the Lakers will be looking for an eighth consecutive win against their Pacific Division rivals Friday night as they look to snap out of their recent doldrums.
Los Angeles seemed to take personal offense to the idea it might not be favored to win a third consecutive championship after the cast Miami assembled in the offseason. The Lakers averaged 111.5 points in winning 13 of their first 15 games, but haven’t cracked triple digits in their past five. Los Angeles let a seven-point lead slip away with seven minutes to play in a 109-99 defeat at Houston on Wednesday. Bryant, who had a game-high 27 points, wanted nothing to do with the notion that his team isn’t as good as it initially thought.
“How do you know how good we think we are? We’re fine,” Bryant said. “Are we going to win a three-peat today? Probably not, but the (expletive) is not played today.” His coach agrees. “Concern; its way too early in the season, and we’ve got a long ways to go,” Jackson said. “We’ve got some guys struggling and need to get better.”
Getting Gasol some rest might be a start. The All-Star big man averaged 22.8 points during the Lakers’ first 14 games but just 13.8 while shooting just 40.0 percent in his last five contests. He also tweaked his left hamstring Tuesday night in Memphis, and said it continued to bother him Wednesday. Gasol is listed as day-to-day, but with Bynum and backup Theo Ratliff already out, the 7-footer claims he’s preparing to go Friday - even though the Lakers don’t play again until Tuesday
If Gasol can’t go, rookie Derrick Caracter will likely make his first NBA start after playing a total of 108 minutes. Gasol has averaged 23.3 points and shot 63.7 percent during Los Angeles’ seven-game winning streak against the Kings who certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him joining Bynum on the sidelines. Sacramento has lost 11 of 12, a stretch that began with a 112-100 home loss to the Lakers on Nov. 3 as Bryant finished with 30 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds. The Kings are averaging just 83.8 points during their latest skid, which hit five after a 107-98 home loss to Indiana on Tuesday.
“It’s frustrating because of the losing and all of the negativity,” guard Luther Head said. “Going into practice it’s like there’s a black cloud. It’s tough but you just have to keep pushing.” The Kings also have concerns in the frontcourt. Starting center Samuel Dalembert is questionable with right knee tendonitis, while rookie DeMarcus Cousins was kicked out of practice Monday for unspecified disciplinary actions. Cousins seemed to at least respond against the Pacers, scoring a season-high 20 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 15; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -16
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -16.41
____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 39-20 ATS (+16.9 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.7, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.0, OPPONENT 104.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 91.0, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 64-40 UNDER (+20.0 Units) after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.2, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.5, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.5, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 23-5 UNDER (+17.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 95.4, OPPONENT 101.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 29-45 against the 1rst half line (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 54.2, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 36-17 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 50.8, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 30-11 UNDER (+17.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.3, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 33-14 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.6, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 39-18 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.9, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
(28-4 since 1996.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 97.5 (Total points scored = 196.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (68.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games.
(30-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 48.3 (Total first half points scored = 97.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (38-17).
___________________________________
*** DALLAS @ UTAH (-3, O/U 193) ***
----------------------------------------------
The Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz have both won seven straight games, so an argument could certainly be made for either being the NBA’s hottest team. They’ll get to settle that matter themselves. The Western Conference contenders square off Friday night, when the Jazz look to hand the Mavericks a sixth consecutive loss in Salt Lake City. Neither team got off to a particularly hot start, with Dallas losing two of its first five games and Utah dropping three of its first five by an average of 15.0 points.
Those mediocre beginnings have quickly given way to a pair of impressive streaks. The Mavericks have won their last seven by an average of 8.7 points. The Jazz have had an even more comfortable time, winning by an average of 14.2 points after stretching their streak to seven with a 110-88 victory over Indiana on Wednesday. “We could have exploded early in the season,” Coach Jerry Sloan said. “Guys could have gone south. But they stayed together.”
Utah has shot 49.8 percent, averaged 26.9 assists and held opponents to 90.4 points per game during the streak, its longest since a nine-game run Jan. 20-Feb. 9. “It’s ups and downs in the NBA,” forward Andrei Kirilenko said. “You remember in preseason we won eight in row, then the beginning of the season we went down, then the road trip we went up then, home games we’ve been sloppy. Now we’re up again. I hope we can stay up a little bit more.” Utah’s streak has come against opponents that are a combined 57-68, while the Mavericks’ victims are a combined five games above .500.
Dallas wasn’t at its sharpest in win No. seven, but it didn’t need to be. Shawn Marion scored a team-high 16 as the Mavericks’ bench provided 59 points in a 100-86 rout of Minnesota on Wednesday. “It’s progress,” coach Rick Carlisle told the team’s official website, “and we’ve got to continue it. I like this group a lot. We’ve been very business-like with our approach. Guys have taken nothing for granted.” Extending the streak to eight - which would be Dallas’ longest since winning 13 in a row Feb. 17-March 10 - won’t be easy in Utah, where Carlisle’s team has lost its five visits by an average of 12.8 points.
“Utah is always tough to play,” Carlisle said. “We haven’t won there since I’ve been here, and I don’t think we’ve been close. So, it’s always a difficult game. And again, the important thing is being really tied together and rebounding the ball.” Rebounding is a major reason for the Mavericks’ struggles in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have pulled down 6.8 more boards per game during the five-game streak, including a 31-rebound edge in Dallas’ two most recent visits. Dallas is 3-0 in its last 10 trips to EnergySolutions Arena when Dirk Nowitzki scores 29 points. The Mavericks are 0-7 in Utah when Nowitzki scores fewer than 29.
Perhaps new addition Tyson Chandler can help the Mavericks change that. Chandler has averaged 12.8 points and 13.8 boards in his last five games while fueling his team’s impressive defensive transformation. Dallas also needs to figure out how to contain Utah in the paint. The Jazz have averaged 47.2 points in the lane during their home streak against the Mavericks, many of which have come thanks to open looks provided by Deron Williams. Utah’s point guard has averaged 14.4 assists in the five wins.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 2.5; O/U 191.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -2.01
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 105-68 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 97.9, OPPONENT 98.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 31-8 ATS (+21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.7, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 29-9 UNDER (+19.1 Units) in home games after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 98.5, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 75-42 UNDER (+28.8 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 96.2, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 24-39 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.6, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was UTAH 38.1, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 80-44 UNDER (+31.6 Units) the 1rst half total against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.9, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 73-38 UNDER (+31.2 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win scoring 110 or more points since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.6, OPPONENT 45.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 69-42 UNDER (+22.5 Units) the 1rst half total against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 45.4, OPPONENT 44.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (UTAH) - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.2, Opponent 45.6 (Total first half points scored = 91.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-0).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs (DALLAS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.9
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 100.7 (Average point differential = +1.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (57.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-33).
*** SACRAMENTO @ LA LAKERS (-12, O/U 200.5) ***
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Los Angeles Lakers have lost four games in a row for the first time since April 2007, Pau Gasol has a strained hamstring and Andrew Bynum is still a few weeks away from returning from his latest knee injury. That still isn’t enough reason for Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson to panic. A loss to the stumbling Sacramento Kings at Staples Center might do the trick, but the Lakers will be looking for an eighth consecutive win against their Pacific Division rivals Friday night as they look to snap out of their recent doldrums.
Los Angeles seemed to take personal offense to the idea it might not be favored to win a third consecutive championship after the cast Miami assembled in the offseason. The Lakers averaged 111.5 points in winning 13 of their first 15 games, but haven’t cracked triple digits in their past five. Los Angeles let a seven-point lead slip away with seven minutes to play in a 109-99 defeat at Houston on Wednesday. Bryant, who had a game-high 27 points, wanted nothing to do with the notion that his team isn’t as good as it initially thought.
“How do you know how good we think we are? We’re fine,” Bryant said. “Are we going to win a three-peat today? Probably not, but the (expletive) is not played today.” His coach agrees. “Concern; its way too early in the season, and we’ve got a long ways to go,” Jackson said. “We’ve got some guys struggling and need to get better.”
Getting Gasol some rest might be a start. The All-Star big man averaged 22.8 points during the Lakers’ first 14 games but just 13.8 while shooting just 40.0 percent in his last five contests. He also tweaked his left hamstring Tuesday night in Memphis, and said it continued to bother him Wednesday. Gasol is listed as day-to-day, but with Bynum and backup Theo Ratliff already out, the 7-footer claims he’s preparing to go Friday - even though the Lakers don’t play again until Tuesday
If Gasol can’t go, rookie Derrick Caracter will likely make his first NBA start after playing a total of 108 minutes. Gasol has averaged 23.3 points and shot 63.7 percent during Los Angeles’ seven-game winning streak against the Kings who certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him joining Bynum on the sidelines. Sacramento has lost 11 of 12, a stretch that began with a 112-100 home loss to the Lakers on Nov. 3 as Bryant finished with 30 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds. The Kings are averaging just 83.8 points during their latest skid, which hit five after a 107-98 home loss to Indiana on Tuesday.
“It’s frustrating because of the losing and all of the negativity,” guard Luther Head said. “Going into practice it’s like there’s a black cloud. It’s tough but you just have to keep pushing.” The Kings also have concerns in the frontcourt. Starting center Samuel Dalembert is questionable with right knee tendonitis, while rookie DeMarcus Cousins was kicked out of practice Monday for unspecified disciplinary actions. Cousins seemed to at least respond against the Pacers, scoring a season-high 20 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 15; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -16
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -16.41
____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 39-20 ATS (+16.9 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.7, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.0, OPPONENT 104.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 91.0, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 64-40 UNDER (+20.0 Units) after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.2, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.5, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.5, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 23-5 UNDER (+17.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 95.4, OPPONENT 101.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 29-45 against the 1rst half line (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 54.2, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 36-17 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 50.8, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 30-11 UNDER (+17.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.3, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 33-14 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.6, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 39-18 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.9, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
(28-4 since 1996.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 97.5 (Total points scored = 196.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (68.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games.
(30-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 48.3 (Total first half points scored = 97.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (38-17).
___________________________________
*** DALLAS @ UTAH (-3, O/U 193) ***
----------------------------------------------
The Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz have both won seven straight games, so an argument could certainly be made for either being the NBA’s hottest team. They’ll get to settle that matter themselves. The Western Conference contenders square off Friday night, when the Jazz look to hand the Mavericks a sixth consecutive loss in Salt Lake City. Neither team got off to a particularly hot start, with Dallas losing two of its first five games and Utah dropping three of its first five by an average of 15.0 points.
Those mediocre beginnings have quickly given way to a pair of impressive streaks. The Mavericks have won their last seven by an average of 8.7 points. The Jazz have had an even more comfortable time, winning by an average of 14.2 points after stretching their streak to seven with a 110-88 victory over Indiana on Wednesday. “We could have exploded early in the season,” Coach Jerry Sloan said. “Guys could have gone south. But they stayed together.”
Utah has shot 49.8 percent, averaged 26.9 assists and held opponents to 90.4 points per game during the streak, its longest since a nine-game run Jan. 20-Feb. 9. “It’s ups and downs in the NBA,” forward Andrei Kirilenko said. “You remember in preseason we won eight in row, then the beginning of the season we went down, then the road trip we went up then, home games we’ve been sloppy. Now we’re up again. I hope we can stay up a little bit more.” Utah’s streak has come against opponents that are a combined 57-68, while the Mavericks’ victims are a combined five games above .500.
Dallas wasn’t at its sharpest in win No. seven, but it didn’t need to be. Shawn Marion scored a team-high 16 as the Mavericks’ bench provided 59 points in a 100-86 rout of Minnesota on Wednesday. “It’s progress,” coach Rick Carlisle told the team’s official website, “and we’ve got to continue it. I like this group a lot. We’ve been very business-like with our approach. Guys have taken nothing for granted.” Extending the streak to eight - which would be Dallas’ longest since winning 13 in a row Feb. 17-March 10 - won’t be easy in Utah, where Carlisle’s team has lost its five visits by an average of 12.8 points.
“Utah is always tough to play,” Carlisle said. “We haven’t won there since I’ve been here, and I don’t think we’ve been close. So, it’s always a difficult game. And again, the important thing is being really tied together and rebounding the ball.” Rebounding is a major reason for the Mavericks’ struggles in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have pulled down 6.8 more boards per game during the five-game streak, including a 31-rebound edge in Dallas’ two most recent visits. Dallas is 3-0 in its last 10 trips to EnergySolutions Arena when Dirk Nowitzki scores 29 points. The Mavericks are 0-7 in Utah when Nowitzki scores fewer than 29.
Perhaps new addition Tyson Chandler can help the Mavericks change that. Chandler has averaged 12.8 points and 13.8 boards in his last five games while fueling his team’s impressive defensive transformation. Dallas also needs to figure out how to contain Utah in the paint. The Jazz have averaged 47.2 points in the lane during their home streak against the Mavericks, many of which have come thanks to open looks provided by Deron Williams. Utah’s point guard has averaged 14.4 assists in the five wins.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 2.5; O/U 191.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -2.01
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 105-68 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 97.9, OPPONENT 98.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 31-8 ATS (+21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.7, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 29-9 UNDER (+19.1 Units) in home games after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 98.5, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 75-42 UNDER (+28.8 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 96.2, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 24-39 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.6, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was UTAH 38.1, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 80-44 UNDER (+31.6 Units) the 1rst half total against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.9, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 73-38 UNDER (+31.2 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win scoring 110 or more points since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.6, OPPONENT 45.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 69-42 UNDER (+22.5 Units) the 1rst half total against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 45.4, OPPONENT 44.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (UTAH) - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.2, Opponent 45.6 (Total first half points scored = 91.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-0).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs (DALLAS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.9
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 100.7 (Average point differential = +1.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (57.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-33).
Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
20 Dime play on Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Ilainois. The Redhawks are listed as 17 1/2 point underdogs as of 1 pm Eastcern in tonight's MAC Title Game at Ford Field in Detrolt.
As impreasive as the Huskies have looked this season (especially ATS), I'm not sold on them in this match up. Fact is they've benefited from playing a very soft schedule, and while that served their backers in the past, the competition is about ratchet up a couple levels against a confident Redhawks team playing great football right now.
Both teams boast solid defensive squads, but bettors are failing to recognize that. Problem is the public has fallen head over heels in love with this Huskies offense after watching them pound their L3 opponents. They believe NIU is all but unstoppable. Not only do oddsmakers know this, but they've incorporated this perception into an inflated line. Redhawks are allowing 12 ppg on 255 total yards over their L3 games, including their most impressive defensive effort of the season agaicnst Temple to get here. The best news is the Redhawks excel in the one area you need to excel to beat the Huskies - against the run - allowing only 77 yards rushing per game (on 3 yards per carry) over that 3-game span.
Of course, bettors are happy to lay the points based on what they perceive to be an average (and short-handed) Redhawks offense. But truth be told, the switch to a ball control offense behind Merriweather (323 yards L2 games) has been a godsend. Now instead of trying to beat teams with Dysert slinging the ball around, they try and grind it out behind a strong stop unit. Its this kind of strategy that makes covering the inflated number so difficult. Redhawks will basically hog the ball for as long as they can, limiting the Huskies chances against their surging defense.
Finally, oddsmakers have given away enough money on this NIU squad, going 9-2-1 ATS this season. With the public aching to bet the Huskies once again here (85-90% on NIU), do you really think they're going to give away another NIU winner? Where this lined opened (at 14 1/2) there may have been some value with the Huskies, but that value has been all but sucked out at its current number, and now the public will pay the price for eating so much chalk in a game that will be dominated by defense. Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Illinois Friday.
Today's Winner...
20 Dime play on Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Ilainois. The Redhawks are listed as 17 1/2 point underdogs as of 1 pm Eastcern in tonight's MAC Title Game at Ford Field in Detrolt.
As impreasive as the Huskies have looked this season (especially ATS), I'm not sold on them in this match up. Fact is they've benefited from playing a very soft schedule, and while that served their backers in the past, the competition is about ratchet up a couple levels against a confident Redhawks team playing great football right now.
Both teams boast solid defensive squads, but bettors are failing to recognize that. Problem is the public has fallen head over heels in love with this Huskies offense after watching them pound their L3 opponents. They believe NIU is all but unstoppable. Not only do oddsmakers know this, but they've incorporated this perception into an inflated line. Redhawks are allowing 12 ppg on 255 total yards over their L3 games, including their most impressive defensive effort of the season agaicnst Temple to get here. The best news is the Redhawks excel in the one area you need to excel to beat the Huskies - against the run - allowing only 77 yards rushing per game (on 3 yards per carry) over that 3-game span.
Of course, bettors are happy to lay the points based on what they perceive to be an average (and short-handed) Redhawks offense. But truth be told, the switch to a ball control offense behind Merriweather (323 yards L2 games) has been a godsend. Now instead of trying to beat teams with Dysert slinging the ball around, they try and grind it out behind a strong stop unit. Its this kind of strategy that makes covering the inflated number so difficult. Redhawks will basically hog the ball for as long as they can, limiting the Huskies chances against their surging defense.
Finally, oddsmakers have given away enough money on this NIU squad, going 9-2-1 ATS this season. With the public aching to bet the Huskies once again here (85-90% on NIU), do you really think they're going to give away another NIU winner? Where this lined opened (at 14 1/2) there may have been some value with the Huskies, but that value has been all but sucked out at its current number, and now the public will pay the price for eating so much chalk in a game that will be dominated by defense. Miami (OH) plus the points over Northern Illinois Friday.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS
NHL 29-19 over past 3 weeks
5 UNIT* Buffalo -1.5 goals +230 (puckline)
5 UNIT* Detroit at Anaheim Under 5.5
NBA 27-19 over the past 30 days
5 UNIT* Oklahoma City at Toronto (Oklahoma Moneyline)
5 UNIT* Chicago at Boston Over 191
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis (Houston +5)
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis Under 206
NHL 29-19 over past 3 weeks
5 UNIT* Buffalo -1.5 goals +230 (puckline)
5 UNIT* Detroit at Anaheim Under 5.5
NBA 27-19 over the past 30 days
5 UNIT* Oklahoma City at Toronto (Oklahoma Moneyline)
5 UNIT* Chicago at Boston Over 191
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis (Houston +5)
5 UNIT* Houston at Memphis Under 206
The Winning Prescription (Marcus Langdon)
CFB
(307) Miami OH @ (308) No Illinois
No Illinois -17.5
(311) Rutgers @ (312) West Virginia
West Virginia -20.5
(321) Washington @ (322) Washington St
Washington -5.5
(325) San Jose St @ (326) Idaho
Over 56
(329) Troy @ (330) Florida Atl.
Troy -4.5
(335) Auburn vs (336) south Carolina
south Carolina +6
(337) Florida St vs (338) Virginia Tech
Florida St +4
CFB
(307) Miami OH @ (308) No Illinois
No Illinois -17.5
(311) Rutgers @ (312) West Virginia
West Virginia -20.5
(321) Washington @ (322) Washington St
Washington -5.5
(325) San Jose St @ (326) Idaho
Over 56
(329) Troy @ (330) Florida Atl.
Troy -4.5
(335) Auburn vs (336) south Carolina
south Carolina +6
(337) Florida St vs (338) Virginia Tech
Florida St +4
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