VegasButcher (NBA 81 – 60 @ 0% for +15.0 Units)
Charlotte Hornets +6.5
With Stephenson on the shelf, Hornets have now won 4 in a row, dominating opponents in the process. Of course they’ll step up in class tonight, as they take on OKC Thunder on the road. Stephenson, just like Kobe Bryant and Josh Smith, is a very inefficient player, who often makes his teammates worse around him. Without him in the lineup, this Hornets team is playing well, hustling on defense, sharing the ball on offense (23 assists per game in the last 4), and competing on the glass. Today, they’ll take on a Thunder team that is coming off a big road win last night. OKC is on a b2b, 3in4 spot, and playing their 6th game in the last 9 days. By comparison, Charlotte had 2-days off and is fully rested for this one. Hornets rank 1st in TO-rate offensively, compared to 21st for OKC. In a tough physical spot for the Thunder, turnover-margin could be an even bigger disparity tonight. In addition, Charlotte ranks #1 in defensive rebounding rate and #4 in FT-rate allowed defensively, which should reduce OKC’s chances for easy points in this one. Their offense could be pretty stagnant with Westbrook dominating possessions and Durant out for another game. I believe we’ll see a close game here and I’ll grab the points with the Hornets in this one.
Charlotte Hornets +6.5
With Stephenson on the shelf, Hornets have now won 4 in a row, dominating opponents in the process. Of course they’ll step up in class tonight, as they take on OKC Thunder on the road. Stephenson, just like Kobe Bryant and Josh Smith, is a very inefficient player, who often makes his teammates worse around him. Without him in the lineup, this Hornets team is playing well, hustling on defense, sharing the ball on offense (23 assists per game in the last 4), and competing on the glass. Today, they’ll take on a Thunder team that is coming off a big road win last night. OKC is on a b2b, 3in4 spot, and playing their 6th game in the last 9 days. By comparison, Charlotte had 2-days off and is fully rested for this one. Hornets rank 1st in TO-rate offensively, compared to 21st for OKC. In a tough physical spot for the Thunder, turnover-margin could be an even bigger disparity tonight. In addition, Charlotte ranks #1 in defensive rebounding rate and #4 in FT-rate allowed defensively, which should reduce OKC’s chances for easy points in this one. Their offense could be pretty stagnant with Westbrook dominating possessions and Durant out for another game. I believe we’ll see a close game here and I’ll grab the points with the Hornets in this one.
SPORTS LOCKSMITH
NCAAF
North Carolina State +2.5 -110 3* (8:00 Eastern)
Chairman’s Play:
University of North Carolina -3 -120 4* (4:30 Eastern)
NBA
Milwaukee +8.5 -110 3* (7:00 Eastern)
Los Angeles +12.5 -110 3* (8:35 Eastern)
Philadelphia +14 -110 1* (10:00 Eastern)
Chairman’s Play:
Orlando Magic +3.5 -110 6* (7:00 Eastern) (Game of the Month)
NCAAF
North Carolina State +2.5 -110 3* (8:00 Eastern)
Chairman’s Play:
University of North Carolina -3 -120 4* (4:30 Eastern)
NBA
Milwaukee +8.5 -110 3* (7:00 Eastern)
Los Angeles +12.5 -110 3* (8:35 Eastern)
Philadelphia +14 -110 1* (10:00 Eastern)
Chairman’s Play:
Orlando Magic +3.5 -110 6* (7:00 Eastern) (Game of the Month)
Dave Essler - Dime Play
223 Rutgers3.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 224 North Carolina
Analysis: The bottom line to Bowls is generally motivation, and clearly at one point NC figured to be in a better Bowl, whereas Rutgers did not. The Tar Heels are likely glad to be here, needing to win late to get to the neccesary win total. The other bottom line for me is that "when in doubt" take the team with the better defense, and that's clearly the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers played a tougher schedule and beat both Maryland and Indiana, two teams that resemble the up-tempo offense that the Tar Heels bring, and they don't REALLY have a bad loss. They've got some games they were blown out in, but by teams that should blow them out. NC gave up a ton of points, and some of those points were to teams with little or no offense (Notre Dame, Virginia, V-Tech). Nova threw almost half his picks in one game way back when against Penn State (5) and they (Rutgers) still only lost 13-10. He feasted on Maryland in the season finale, and he should do the same here.
223 Rutgers3.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 224 North Carolina
Analysis: The bottom line to Bowls is generally motivation, and clearly at one point NC figured to be in a better Bowl, whereas Rutgers did not. The Tar Heels are likely glad to be here, needing to win late to get to the neccesary win total. The other bottom line for me is that "when in doubt" take the team with the better defense, and that's clearly the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers played a tougher schedule and beat both Maryland and Indiana, two teams that resemble the up-tempo offense that the Tar Heels bring, and they don't REALLY have a bad loss. They've got some games they were blown out in, but by teams that should blow them out. NC gave up a ton of points, and some of those points were to teams with little or no offense (Notre Dame, Virginia, V-Tech). Nova threw almost half his picks in one game way back when against Penn State (5) and they (Rutgers) still only lost 13-10. He feasted on Maryland in the season finale, and he should do the same here.
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
NBA Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks
Time: Friday 12/26 7:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Milwaukee +9 (-113)
The Atlanta Hawks are surprisingly off to a 21-7 start and have lost just two games at home on the season. They are playing as well as any team right now at 14-1 in their last 15 games, but there is a price to pay for that as they have now become an over-valued team. Milwaukee is a vastly improved team from a year ago at 14-15 as they did not win their 14th game until March 27 last season, and they are getting some disrespect in the line here. The Bucks have fared well when facing a team that is not off a good defensive effort as they weigh in at 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Milwaukee has also bounced back nicely off a loss where they are 12-3 ATS on the season. The Hawks have lost momentum on a pair of days rest where they are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53. Make the play on Milwaukee.
NBA Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks
Time: Friday 12/26 7:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Milwaukee +9 (-113)
The Atlanta Hawks are surprisingly off to a 21-7 start and have lost just two games at home on the season. They are playing as well as any team right now at 14-1 in their last 15 games, but there is a price to pay for that as they have now become an over-valued team. Milwaukee is a vastly improved team from a year ago at 14-15 as they did not win their 14th game until March 27 last season, and they are getting some disrespect in the line here. The Bucks have fared well when facing a team that is not off a good defensive effort as they weigh in at 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Milwaukee has also bounced back nicely off a loss where they are 12-3 ATS on the season. The Hawks have lost momentum on a pair of days rest where they are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53. Make the play on Milwaukee.
