Sportswagers
Rutgers vs North Carolina
Rutgers +3½ -105 over North Carolina
4:30 PM EST. It would be real easy to make a case for the Tar Heels here. They have played a decent schedule and have some pretty nice wins over the course of the season, which include victories over Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt and Duke. The Tar Heels are an offensive juggernaut that seems impossible to stop at times. UNC routinely hangs 40 points or more on their opponents. Offense has not been the problem in Chapel Hill. The problem is that the Tar Heels can’t stop the marching band and it started right from the very first game of the year when Liberty hung a 29 on them. From there the Tar Heels allowed East Carolina to score 70 points, Clemson to score 50, Va Tech to score 34, Notre Dame to score 50, Georgia Tech to score 43, Pitt to score 35 and in its regular season finale against in-state rival, N.C. State, the Wolfpack hung a 35 on the Tar Heels and buried them 35-7. At this time of year the public always prefers offense over defense and that’s a fundamental mistake. As a 6½-point choice over the Wolfpack, UNC lost by 28. As a 15-point favorite over San Diego State, the Tar Heels squeezed out a four-point win. They’ve been favored six times this year and have covered just twice in those games. Those backing the Tar Heels better hope that their offense is razor sharp and we couldn’t on that either. You see, the Tar Heels have pulled a bunch of no shows this year at crucial times and that makes them too big a risk laying points.
Rutgers résumé is not great but it’s also a little misleading. They don’t have a true signature win on their season but they have defeated every team that they were supposed to defeat while losing to Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State. That’s not bad at all. The Knights were a huge pooch in all of those games with the exception of the game against the Nittany Lions in which the Knights covered the 3½-point spread but were a play away from winning outright. In every other game that Rutgers lost they lost they were a double-digit underdog. It would certainly come as no surprise if the Tar Heels came in here on this fast track and won going away but there are too many red flags that surround UNC for us to endorse. We don’t like the huge public support they’re getting and we definitely don’t like that their defense is so bad. We’ve seen the Tar Heels fall completely apart when they fall behind. They get frustrated and out of rhythm easily and that’s not the type of team we like to back after a month off.
Our Pick
Rutgers +3½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
Illinois vs Louisiana Tech
Illinois +6 +101 over Louisiana Tech
1:00 PM EST. The Fighting Illini’s season turned for the good after an emotional upset against Penn State in mid-November. The Illini followed that victory up with another one in the season finale against Northwestern to earn them a Heart of Dallas Bowl Berth. We often like to look closely at teams that carry huge momentum into their Bowl game and that applies to the Illini. Illinois had just four wins with two games remaining in the regular season. As a five-point pooch against Penn State, their defense held strong in a 16-14 victory. They were not given much of a chance a week later in their intra-state rivalry game against Northwestern but as a 7½-point pooch, they won that one too with a great offensive display. This is a football team that fought back against adversity after they lost starting quarterback Wes Lunt to a mid-season injury, which prompted senior signal caller Reilly O’Toole to take over and lead this nicked up team to an unexpected bowl game. O’Toole has been prolific and he has had the services of wide receiver Mike Dudek, which has been a great aid to his personal endeavors as well as the team’s overall causes. Dudek has been compared to Wes Welker and Louisiana Tech’s 85th ranked passing defense isn’t likely to have an answer.
Louisiana Tech enters on a low note, as they blew a substantial lead in Huntington, West Virginia against now Conference-USA champion Marshall. That 3-point loss to the Herd killed all momentum for this program and it might be hard for them to rebound here. The Bulldogs did win eight games this season and they defeated some bowl eligible programs along the way but that doesn’t explain losses to FCS program Northwestern State or a loss to Old Dominion. In fact, the Bulldogs two toughest games this season occurred against Oklahoma and Auburn and Tech was destroyed in both by scores of 48-16 and 45-17 respectively. They Fighting Illini are much more battle tested, having played teams like Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota while Tech has played a bunch of nobodies. Now we have a C-USA team spotting a Big-10 school six points. Talk about no respect and one need not look further than the Big-10. In fact, there are 10 teams from the Big-10 that are playing in a Bowl game this season and all 10 are underdogs. Illinois is the first up to set the tone and we’re trust they’ll respond. In summarizing, we get the team with great momentum and excitement against a team whose dreams were crushed. We get a Big-10 school against a C-USA school. We’re also taking back significant weight and all of these things work in the dogs favor.
Our Pick
Illinois +6 +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
N.C. State vs Central Florida
N.C. State +120 over Central Florida
8:00 PM EST. UCF enters on a four-game winning streak but the accolades are deceptive and misleading. The Knights ransacked both Tulsa and SMU to begin the aforementioned streak and neither of these two teams are considered comprehensive by any means. Both Tulsa and SMU combined for only three wins on the year, sporting an atrocious 3-22 combined W-L record. SMU’s former head coach June Jones was frustrated enough to walk away from the Mustangs during the middle of the season, which further demonstrates the losing culture that wreaks within SMU. To cap off the last two UCF wins was a shutout against arch rival South Florida that was not as convincing as the score would indicate. USF is another author of a losing season (4-8) and when you finish off UCF’s run with a miracle win against a deflated ECU squad, the four-game winning streak is colored in a different hue. UCF should have lost to ECU, as it required a Hail Mary for the Knights to defeat the Pirates and earn a piece of the AAC championship. This achievement in itself does not bear any prestige, as the AAC has since been relegated from its BCS status during the Bowl Championship era. The AAC is considered nothing more than a glorified mid-major conference and the College Football Playoff Committee made that clear when the AAC was aligned as a member of the Group of Five conferences. Note that they are not a member of the Power 5 and this sentiment displays the lack of respect that analysts and experts have for this conference as a whole.
The Wolfpack of North Carolina State is anchored by a truly talented dual threat quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. Sure the Wolfpack will have their hands full against a well-coached UCF team but N.C. State has rejuvenated their season by winning by large margins against rivals Wake Forest and North Carolina in its final two games by a combined score of 77-20. From a fundamental perspective, the type of antics that UCF engaged in to beat ECU will not pass against a North Carolina State club that is better than its records indicate. This N.C. State team was a true challenge against defending champion Florida State, forcing the ‘Noles to play a full game and sneak away with a victory in the fourth quarter. Some still speculate that the Wolfpack would have pulled off that major upset if they had not made so many mistakes down the stretch and the St. Petersburg Bowl is a quality opportunity to show the college football world how good they truly are. We’re not interested in the points here, as we’re calling the Wolfpack outright and that’s how we’re going to play it.
Our Pick
N.C. State +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)