Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Fri, 12/18/09 - 8:05 PM “‹
double-dime bet 510 MIN 2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 509 SAC
Analysis: Stan is Betting MINNESOTA. Stan notes that he went against Minnesota on Wednesday and won by 25 points but tonight they are in a different situation. Stan went against Minnesota because they were returning home from a road trip and was off of a Huge‰ Upset in their last game. Tonight it's Minnesota who is the right side. Stan says Minnesota wins by 7-10 points. TAKE MINNESOTA as STAN'S WISE GUY MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Paid by me!
double-dime bet 510 MIN 2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 509 SAC
Analysis: Stan is Betting MINNESOTA. Stan notes that he went against Minnesota on Wednesday and won by 25 points but tonight they are in a different situation. Stan went against Minnesota because they were returning home from a road trip and was off of a Huge‰ Upset in their last game. Tonight it's Minnesota who is the right side. Stan says Minnesota wins by 7-10 points. TAKE MINNESOTA as STAN'S WISE GUY MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Paid by me!
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy CBB Friday Night "STEAL" of the Year on Pacific +10.5(-105 at sportsbook)
Pacific is 7-2 this season thanks in large part to excellent defensive play, allowing just 60.2 points/game this year. That's pretty impressive considering the opponents they have faced combine to average 70.9 points/game. St. Mary's has a solid squad again this year, but they lost a lot of talent with just 1 returning starter. Pacific is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. St. Mary's is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997. St. Mary's has yet to face a team that gets after it on the defensive end like Pacific does. Take Pacific and the points.
5* W iseg uy N B A F rid ay "T ota l" BLOWO UT on Clippers/Knicks OVER 202(-115 at bodog)
This is a very low total for a Knicks' home game. The Knicks are scoring 104.7 points/game and allowing 107.0 points/game at home this season. The Clippers have actually been at their best offensively on the road, where they are scoring 100 points/game which is nearly 5 points/game more than they are scoring at home. Let's just take a look at the last two meetings in this series. The Clippers won 140-135 at New York for 275 combined points last meeting, and the previous meeting saw the Clippers win 128-124 at home for 252 combined points. Given these recent efforts, the clear value is with the OVER tonight. Take the OVER 202 points.
4* on Philadelphia 76ers +12(-110 at bodog)
Philly put an end to their long losing streak by beating up on the 117-101 home win over the Warriors. They followed that up with a solid showing against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but fell short by 7 points in the end. The Celtics have faced 4 straight teams with losing records, and they won 3 of those 4 contests by 9 points or less. So though Boston is on a long winning streak, they really aren't destroying teams that they should be dominating. The 76ers stay within double-digits tonight. Though Philly is 2-10 on the road this year, they have gone a solid 8-4 ATS away from home, losing by an average of just 3.5 points/game on the road. The 76ers are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Take Philly and the points.
6* Widow Wiseguy CBB Friday Night "STEAL" of the Year on Pacific +10.5(-105 at sportsbook)
Pacific is 7-2 this season thanks in large part to excellent defensive play, allowing just 60.2 points/game this year. That's pretty impressive considering the opponents they have faced combine to average 70.9 points/game. St. Mary's has a solid squad again this year, but they lost a lot of talent with just 1 returning starter. Pacific is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. St. Mary's is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997. St. Mary's has yet to face a team that gets after it on the defensive end like Pacific does. Take Pacific and the points.
5* W iseg uy N B A F rid ay "T ota l" BLOWO UT on Clippers/Knicks OVER 202(-115 at bodog)
This is a very low total for a Knicks' home game. The Knicks are scoring 104.7 points/game and allowing 107.0 points/game at home this season. The Clippers have actually been at their best offensively on the road, where they are scoring 100 points/game which is nearly 5 points/game more than they are scoring at home. Let's just take a look at the last two meetings in this series. The Clippers won 140-135 at New York for 275 combined points last meeting, and the previous meeting saw the Clippers win 128-124 at home for 252 combined points. Given these recent efforts, the clear value is with the OVER tonight. Take the OVER 202 points.
4* on Philadelphia 76ers +12(-110 at bodog)
Philly put an end to their long losing streak by beating up on the 117-101 home win over the Warriors. They followed that up with a solid showing against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but fell short by 7 points in the end. The Celtics have faced 4 straight teams with losing records, and they won 3 of those 4 contests by 9 points or less. So though Boston is on a long winning streak, they really aren't destroying teams that they should be dominating. The 76ers stay within double-digits tonight. Though Philly is 2-10 on the road this year, they have gone a solid 8-4 ATS away from home, losing by an average of just 3.5 points/game on the road. The 76ers are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Take Philly and the points.
Sports insights
2009 NCAA Basketball Games to Watch: 1-5-1, 16.7%*
San Jose State +2 over Cal Irvine - 10:00 pm EST
San Jose State won their last game, topping Cal State Bakersfield 84-80. Guard Adrian Oliver put the Spartans on his back, scoring 30 points, while grabbing 11 boards, in the overtime victory. Cal Irvine's Michael Hunter was just as impressive in his last contest, scoring 23 points, including four three-pointers, in their heartbreaking 82-81 loss to Seattle Tuesday.
Cal Irvine opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are currently receiving 61% of spread bets. A Smart Money Play at 5Dimes (+1.82 units), as well as a Steam Move at 5Dimes (+37.5 units) were triggered on San Jose State. The Spartans are getting one point at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but one book is still offering two. We'll follow these moves from 5Dimes, go against the public and grab the two points while we still can.
San Jose State +2 (SIA)
Games to Watch (1-5-1)
San Jose State +2 (SIA)
2009 NCAA Basketball Games to Watch: 1-5-1, 16.7%*
San Jose State +2 over Cal Irvine - 10:00 pm EST
San Jose State won their last game, topping Cal State Bakersfield 84-80. Guard Adrian Oliver put the Spartans on his back, scoring 30 points, while grabbing 11 boards, in the overtime victory. Cal Irvine's Michael Hunter was just as impressive in his last contest, scoring 23 points, including four three-pointers, in their heartbreaking 82-81 loss to Seattle Tuesday.
Cal Irvine opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are currently receiving 61% of spread bets. A Smart Money Play at 5Dimes (+1.82 units), as well as a Steam Move at 5Dimes (+37.5 units) were triggered on San Jose State. The Spartans are getting one point at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but one book is still offering two. We'll follow these moves from 5Dimes, go against the public and grab the two points while we still can.
San Jose State +2 (SIA)
Games to Watch (1-5-1)
San Jose State +2 (SIA)
DON BEST STEAM
9:47:40am 2009-12-18 502 Toronto Under 205
8:58:43am 2009-12-18 532 Pepperdine Under 161
8:56:54am 2009-12-18 523 Utah State -3½
8:41:53am 2009-12-18 534 Akron -12
8:32:06am 2009-12-18 501 New Jersey +9
8:30:51am 2009-12-18 506 Cleveland Under 194½
8:30:21am 2009-12-18 520 Dallas Over 196½
8:21:06am 2009-12-18 504 Boston Under 196½
8:19:13am 2009-12-18 511 Denver +1½
8:17:54am 2009-12-18 522 Golden State -2
8:10:31am 2009-12-18 525 Pacific +12
8:09:19am 2009-12-18 528 CS Northridge Over 137
8:09:04am 2009-12-18 528 CS Northridge -2
8:05:49am 2009-12-18 529 San Jose State +2
8:05:36am 2009-12-18 516 Memphis -5
8:02:59am 2009-12-18 514 New York Over 201½
9:47:40am 2009-12-18 502 Toronto Under 205
8:58:43am 2009-12-18 532 Pepperdine Under 161
8:56:54am 2009-12-18 523 Utah State -3½
8:41:53am 2009-12-18 534 Akron -12
8:32:06am 2009-12-18 501 New Jersey +9
8:30:51am 2009-12-18 506 Cleveland Under 194½
8:30:21am 2009-12-18 520 Dallas Over 196½
8:21:06am 2009-12-18 504 Boston Under 196½
8:19:13am 2009-12-18 511 Denver +1½
8:17:54am 2009-12-18 522 Golden State -2
8:10:31am 2009-12-18 525 Pacific +12
8:09:19am 2009-12-18 528 CS Northridge Over 137
8:09:04am 2009-12-18 528 CS Northridge -2
8:05:49am 2009-12-18 529 San Jose State +2
8:05:36am 2009-12-18 516 Memphis -5
8:02:59am 2009-12-18 514 New York Over 201½
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
The Thunder come into this one having lost three straight, but those losses came against Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland -- three pretty damn good teams. The Thunder should be pumped up for this game, with a three-game road trip up next against Houston, the Lakers, and Phoenix. I mentioned OKC has lost three straight. Two of those were at home. In the last one against Dallas, they lost by 14 as a 2-point dog, which means it was a double-digit ATS loss (lost to the spread by 12). It should be noted that OKC is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when playing off a double-digit ATS loss. Kevin Durant shot just 4-of-18 in the loss, as he finished with 12 points and four rebounds. Expect a strong bounce-back by Mr. Durant tonight.
On the flip side, Detroit is just 3-10 on the road and they're coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Houston. Rip Hamilton may miss this game with a hamstring problem. Ben Gordon may also miss this game with an ankle injury. These two met in Detroit on 10/30 and the Thunder pulled the upset, 91-83. And Detroit did have Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince for that matchup.
The Thunder are 5-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of four points or more. This is OKC's best shot at a win for a while with that brutal three-game road trip looming. I expect a very strong effort from the Thunder against a banged-up Detroit team that just doesn't get the job done on the road. Take Oklahoma City.
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
The Thunder come into this one having lost three straight, but those losses came against Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland -- three pretty damn good teams. The Thunder should be pumped up for this game, with a three-game road trip up next against Houston, the Lakers, and Phoenix. I mentioned OKC has lost three straight. Two of those were at home. In the last one against Dallas, they lost by 14 as a 2-point dog, which means it was a double-digit ATS loss (lost to the spread by 12). It should be noted that OKC is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when playing off a double-digit ATS loss. Kevin Durant shot just 4-of-18 in the loss, as he finished with 12 points and four rebounds. Expect a strong bounce-back by Mr. Durant tonight.
On the flip side, Detroit is just 3-10 on the road and they're coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Houston. Rip Hamilton may miss this game with a hamstring problem. Ben Gordon may also miss this game with an ankle injury. These two met in Detroit on 10/30 and the Thunder pulled the upset, 91-83. And Detroit did have Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince for that matchup.
The Thunder are 5-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of four points or more. This is OKC's best shot at a win for a while with that brutal three-game road trip looming. I expect a very strong effort from the Thunder against a banged-up Detroit team that just doesn't get the job done on the road. Take Oklahoma City.
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. #531. Take New Mexico State +2.5 over Pepperdine (Friday @ 10:30pm est).
Thur 4*: Weber State +12.5 over UNLV (W)
5 straight winning weeks of college basketball
60% 2009 College Baskets
We like Underdogs that can win outright and nothing is different here. We have taken many teams against Pepperdine this year on the road if you remember as we took the likes of Portland State, Cal Poly and Fresno over Pepperdine this year and it has worked out for us. It is no surprise that we would consider taking New Mexico State over Pepperdine. New Mexico State is about 20 to 30 spots ahead in the power rankings according to my numbers. This is a game that is frankly a tossup that New Mexico State could win outright or sneak inside the number when the game is said and done. I like the fact this team comes off a tough loss to UCLA on the road, prior to that they just defeated Texas A&M outright on the road and were competitive against a top 20 power ranking team in New Mexico at home losing by just ten points. I like New Mexico State here given the tough schedule they have played so far and this is certainly a game they can likely win outright on the road. New Mexico State is 7-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage below .400 and the Waves of Pepperdine are 0-6 ATS when favored by a small margin at home.
5 Unit Play. #505. Take the Milwaukee Bucks FIRST HALF ONLY +5.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday @ 8pm est). There are several things for us to like about this game. For starters, the Bucks have revenge from a recent earlier season loss to this team as they pretty much got manhandled in the second quarter against the Cavs. This team certainly remembers that as they play the Cavs today. Bear in mind these are not the Bucks from last year. This team recently went to Boston and fell short by nine points in the Garden. And, if they can do that in the Garden, then why not in Cleveland? This team just lost in overtime by a point to the Lakers at home and have covered four straight since the loss to Cleveland. Also consider that although the Cavs have been winning, they have not been necessarily dominating. This team recently beat the Nets by just 10 points in Cleveland and they were laying 14.5 points in that contest, defeated Portland by five as a ten point favorite and I suspect Milwaukee will be game for most of this contest. Sure, I was considering a play for the entire game, but bear in mind that the Bulls and the Nets were both able to cover the first half against the Cavs. And, then the Cavs in the second half just go on their usual run where the wheels come off for the opposing team and this team just crushes them. I don't want to do deal with that and would rather make this game shorter so to speak. I will take the Bucks here with that revenge in mind and wanting to start out the game strong. Plus, statistically it is much more likely that the Bucks could even lead outright by the end of the first half and consequently, getting the 5.5 is better than taking it in comparison to the 9.5 points for the entire game. Long story short, Cleveland does not turn on its jets until the second half and we will take the Bucks here in the early going with the 5.5 points.
Good luck,
IC
4 Unit Play. #531. Take New Mexico State +2.5 over Pepperdine (Friday @ 10:30pm est).
Thur 4*: Weber State +12.5 over UNLV (W)
5 straight winning weeks of college basketball
60% 2009 College Baskets
We like Underdogs that can win outright and nothing is different here. We have taken many teams against Pepperdine this year on the road if you remember as we took the likes of Portland State, Cal Poly and Fresno over Pepperdine this year and it has worked out for us. It is no surprise that we would consider taking New Mexico State over Pepperdine. New Mexico State is about 20 to 30 spots ahead in the power rankings according to my numbers. This is a game that is frankly a tossup that New Mexico State could win outright or sneak inside the number when the game is said and done. I like the fact this team comes off a tough loss to UCLA on the road, prior to that they just defeated Texas A&M outright on the road and were competitive against a top 20 power ranking team in New Mexico at home losing by just ten points. I like New Mexico State here given the tough schedule they have played so far and this is certainly a game they can likely win outright on the road. New Mexico State is 7-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage below .400 and the Waves of Pepperdine are 0-6 ATS when favored by a small margin at home.
5 Unit Play. #505. Take the Milwaukee Bucks FIRST HALF ONLY +5.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday @ 8pm est). There are several things for us to like about this game. For starters, the Bucks have revenge from a recent earlier season loss to this team as they pretty much got manhandled in the second quarter against the Cavs. This team certainly remembers that as they play the Cavs today. Bear in mind these are not the Bucks from last year. This team recently went to Boston and fell short by nine points in the Garden. And, if they can do that in the Garden, then why not in Cleveland? This team just lost in overtime by a point to the Lakers at home and have covered four straight since the loss to Cleveland. Also consider that although the Cavs have been winning, they have not been necessarily dominating. This team recently beat the Nets by just 10 points in Cleveland and they were laying 14.5 points in that contest, defeated Portland by five as a ten point favorite and I suspect Milwaukee will be game for most of this contest. Sure, I was considering a play for the entire game, but bear in mind that the Bulls and the Nets were both able to cover the first half against the Cavs. And, then the Cavs in the second half just go on their usual run where the wheels come off for the opposing team and this team just crushes them. I don't want to do deal with that and would rather make this game shorter so to speak. I will take the Bucks here with that revenge in mind and wanting to start out the game strong. Plus, statistically it is much more likely that the Bucks could even lead outright by the end of the first half and consequently, getting the 5.5 is better than taking it in comparison to the 9.5 points for the entire game. Long story short, Cleveland does not turn on its jets until the second half and we will take the Bucks here in the early going with the 5.5 points.
Good luck,
IC
