Service Plays Friday 12/18/09

[Pauleboman]

Tom Freese <table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="data"> <td class="event" nowrap="nowrap" width="55%">NBA | Dec 18
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors</td> <td class="choice" nowrap="nowrap" width="30%">Total
218 ov-121 at 5DIMES</td> <td class="starts" nowrap="nowrap" width="15%">> 8h.</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="comment">Golden St is 20-8 OVER their last 28 games and they are 25-10 OVER their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Warriors are 36-15 OVER their last 51 games as home favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games with the Wizards. Washington is 25-10-2 OVER their last 37 games vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40% and they are 26-12 OVER vs. Pacific Division teams. The Wizards are 12-3 OVER their last 15 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points and they are 4-1-1 OVER with one day of rest. PLAY ON 'OVER'
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[tinfw17]

Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE(-3) over Drexel Dragons

4* #528 C.S.-NORTHRIDGE over DREXEL

There is a cavernous gap in focus between these teams for this setting, and with Drexel having some tactical and logistical disadvantages what they are projecting as a close game in the marketplace has a chance to break wide open. Being at home means much more for Bobby Braswell and his Matadors than the oddsmakers appraisal for tonight. This will be their only game in the Matadome in a span of five weeks, and for a team that has already logged 11,521 air miles it creates a most favorable environment. That is accentuated by their pressing and trapping tactics, with Braswell once again having a deep rotation (11 players logging double-figure minute counts). That style is not conducive to early road success, of course, which helps to buy us their lower power rating, but now they get the home fans behind them, and some of those road challenges (particularly Purdue and Washington) will have accelerated their development process. Look for a fresh and hungry team to take the court tonight, one that will attack relentlessly for the full 40 minutes. That is not Drexel basketball, of course. The Dragons play a physical and methodical style that is the embodiment of coach Bruiser Flint, and they rarely go up against an opponent that forces this kind of tempo. The best way to attack the Matador presses is to go over the top and take the ball to the basket but that is not the Drexel way, and a sluggish offense that has connected at only a 39.8 percent clip so far, including a horrid 62.1 at the free throw line, faces an uphill battle vs. this defensive pressure. And that is even if they brought their ?A? game anyway. We do not expect to see a top level of efficiency from a team that has not played west of the Mississippi River since a game at Creighton in February of 2007, and they have not even traveled west of their own campus for a game this season. No one on the roster has ever played a game in the Pacific Time Zone, which makes the 10 PM tipoff on their body clocks an issue, and there is also the major distraction of a nationally televised game at Kentucky at Monday. For a team that harbors no at-large tourney considerations of any kind this result does not carry a lot of meaning, so do not be surprised if Flint experiments with some lineup combinations and treats it as more of an exhibition affair, something that Braswell will absolutely not do.

 

[tinfw17]

Sports Wagers

NCAA BB

NC Greensboro +13½ over AKRON Pinnacle

It’s never a good idea to lay points with a team that has trouble scoring as the Akron Zips do. Akron shoots 62.4% from the foul line, 44% from two, and averages 98 points per 100 possessions, good for 248th in Division I. North Carolina Greensboro allows opponents to shoot 57.3% on two point field goals but with Akron shooting such a terrible percentage from two that weakness won’t be badly exposed. NC Greensboro’s record will back a lot of bettors off them but they have played a ridiculously tough schedule with the likes of Duke, Virginia, and Clemson all beating Greensboro thus far. I won’t make the case for a Greensboro victory but I can tell you I would never lay this many points with a below average team like Akron. You won’t see their name anywhere near any post season tournaments and if not for them playing at home this number would be closer to 5 or 6. Massive overlay. Play: NC Greensboro +13½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

NHL
Ottawa +1.70 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle
The Devils remain a tough out and likely will be the rest of the way including the playoffs. They’re among the elite teams in the league and you don’t need anyone to tell you that. However, this is another one of those vulnerable spots in which we could catch them off its game. The Devils have been home for 10 days and this will be its fifth consecutive at home. The Devils have played one road game since Nov 28 and that was a short trip to Buffalo. They’ll embark on a three-game trip starting tomorrow in Atlanta and could definitely be looking forward to getting away. Teams are very often flat in the last game of an extended home stand and it’s also worth noting that they’ve beaten the Sens twice already this year in two meetings so they have nothing to prove. Ottawa is coming off a pretty sweet 2-0 win in Buffalo. They’ve now won three of four and they’re almost always ready to play. The tag is also pretty sweet when you consider how tough the Sens have been and that New Jersey is not a team like San Jose, Pittsburgh or Chicago in that they don’t score nearly enough goals to be trusted as this big a favorite over a quality team. Overlay. Play: Ottawa +1.70 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ +1.01 over Boston (REG) Pinnacle
How good are the Blackhawks? This team might be the best the NHL has to offer and they seem to be doing it with ease these days. They’ve shut out its last two opponents and have now allowed just four goals against in its last five games. They’re just two points behind the Sharks for the lead in the West but they’ve also played three less games than San Jose. The Blackhawks are loaded. They play great defense, they roll out three lines that can all score and a fourth line that would be a second or third line anywhere else. In 17 home games this year they’ve won 14. The Blackhawks are rested, soaring with confidence and although they rarely see the Bruins, it’s been six years since they beat them and you can be damn sure the local papers will have already pointed that out to them. The Bruins are good too but they’re the second best team here and it’s not close. Boston also lost two of its starting defenseman in its last game as both Denis Wideman and Mark Stuart will be on the rack for a few games. Oh, the Bruins also have the Leafs on deck tomorrow in Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada. Play: Chicago -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS -½ +1.01 over Tampa Bay (REG) Pinnacle
The Lightning lost again last night in Detroit despite not being outplayed. They played nose to nose with the Red Wings but like they always do recently, they came out on the losing end. The Bolts have now lost six in a row and 10 of its last 11. That’s incredible for a team with the talent they have but the fact is, only a handful of players are giving it all they have and LeCavalier isn’t one of them. The Lightning is also hurting on defense where they don’t know who should play and who should sit anymore. Furthermore, they’ve been shutout in three of its last six games and now have the second least amount of goals in the league with 81. Lastly, the Lightning will play its fifth road game in seven days, its third in four and the tail end of back-to-backs after a very frustrating night in Detroit. No excuses for the Blue Notes here. Play: St. Louis -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

 

[knaw_son]

DOC

3-Unit Play #501 Take New Jersey/Toronto UNDER 203 1/2 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)

6-Unit NBA Game of the Month #518 Take Oklahoma City -4 1/2 Over Detroit (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

 

[knaw_son]

Ferringo 12/18 NCAABB

1.5-Unit Play. Take #529 San Jose State (+1) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #528 CS-Northridge (-2.5) over Drexel (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #523 Utah State (-4) over Long Beach State (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #529 San Jose State (+6) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.) AND Take #531 New Mexico State (+7.5) over Pepperdine (10:30 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #534 Akron (-8) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m.) AND Take UC-Santa Barbara (+9) over Montana State (9 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #526 St. Mary’s (-5.5) over Pacific (10 p.m.) AND Take #529 San Jose State (+6) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.)

 

[knaw_son]

DOC


6-Unit NBA Game of the Month #518 Take Oklahoma City -4 1/2 Over Detroit (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

4-Unit Play #508 Take Atlanta -6 Over Utah (7:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

3-Unit Play #501 Take New Jersey/Toronto UNDER 203 1/2 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)

 

[mike viani]

ny wise guys last night went 2-1 3 day total of 9-3 had jags over miami under and those no def backs jags tonight well go with cleve -9' utah+6' sac-1' and olka city over 185 bet them

 

[mike viani]

mike viani

ny wise guys last night went 2-1 3 day total of 9-3 had jags over miami under and those no def backs jags tonight well go with cleve -9' utah+6' sac-1' and olka city over 185 bet them

cancel the okla city over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina's NBA Predictions
Friday, December 18th, 2009 7:30 p.m. est.
Utah Jazz (15-10) at Atlanta Hawks (18-6)

Utah has won 11 of the past 13 games versus Atlanta, but the hot Hawks have covered the spread in three of the last four meetings and the favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Go with Atlanta at Philips Arena to win its sixth straight.

Atlanta Hawks 5½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnny Guild
Friday, December 18th, 2009
Time Game Selections
Montana St. Bobcats -3.5
Saint Mary's Gaels -12

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTI
4.5* houston rockets
5* denver nuggets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS RUNNER

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Friday 12-18-09 :


1.) MEMPHIS opened -4.5....Now -6

This is a very big move and extremely significant because with 2 ESPN Games...and a handful of good match-ups, this game will receive very little "volume"...And if I know this, it's obvious that the books do as well...Which is why as soon as the Wiseguys went to work laying the number with Memphis...the books had no problems adjusting...

What stuck out to me the most was that the books wouldn't put a line up on this game until very early this morning...And as soon as they did, we saw that the Wiseguys immediately felt that the line was too low...More importantly, after the first Syndicate or two bet it when the line first went up...forcing the move from -4.5 to -5...we then saw a few more come in about an hour later and lay -5...Which tells me that there are a handful of Wiseguys who all agree that the number was too low...

The books didn't take any more chances this time...and went to -6 right away...

Now don't be surprised if this line takes a dip before game-time...Especially if between now and then, this line climbs a bit more...

Because I know from experience that plenty of these Outfits will take the opportunity to limit liability, while possibly setting up a "middle"...By coming back and taking the points for a small amount before tip-off...Which will then force a late adjustment...VR



LINE PREDICTION : I would be surprised to see this line get any higher, because I know for sure that the Outfits were able to take a substantial "position" already...And I think that if they wanted a bigger one, they would have done so...Because this isn't a game that will get "volume", like we touched on above...Which means that they can't count on the betting public's money to help them get a better line than where it is right now...And because of that, I wouldn't be surprised as I stated earlier...to see this one drop a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, you may want to sit back and wait for a possible drop...But if you disagree, then I would go ahead and grab the points now because you probably won't get much better...VR

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

1AA Championship Game
My math model favors Villanova by 3 points with a total of 51 points (given normal weather conditions). The line is Villanova by 2 1/2 or 3 points, so no opinion on the side.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS INSIGHTS

2009 NCAA Basketball Games to Watch: 1-5-1, 16.7%*
*Source: SportsInsights.com

San Jose State +2 over Cal Irvine - 10:00 pm EST

San Jose State won their last game, topping Cal State Bakersfield 84-80. Guard Adrian Oliver put the Spartans on his back, scoring 30 points, while grabbing 11 boards, in the overtime victory. Cal Irvine's Michael Hunter was just as impressive in his last contest, scoring 23 points, including four three-pointers, in their heartbreaking 82-81 loss to Seattle Tuesday.

Cal Irvine opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are currently receiving 61% of spread bets. A Smart Money Play at 5Dimes (+1.82 units), as well as a Steam Move at 5Dimes (+37.5 units) were triggered on San Jose State. The Spartans are getting one point at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but one book is still offering two. We'll follow these moves from 5Dimes, go against the public and grab the two points while we still can.

San Jose State +2 (SIA)

Games to Watch (1-5-1)
San Jose State +2 (SIA)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Triple Crown Sports has
4 Star Top play Comp on the Atlanta Hawks.

Billy Coleman has a comp
3 Star Wash/Golden State over 219

 

[knaw_son]

Northcoast Marquee
Villanova

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

valley sports 12/18 picks
computer picks

totals
utah state vs long beach state
predicted score 150.5, line 144
pick over


pacific vs st. marys
predicted score 133.5, line 135.5
pick under

san jose state vs uc irving
predicted score 141.5, line 140.5
pick over

sides

new mexico state at pepperdine
line 2.5
pepperdine by 36.5
pick pepperdine

cal santa barbra at montana state
line 3.5
montana state by 6.5
pick montana state

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOHN MORRISON

Daily Football Picks
Montana +3 This game is against Villanova at 8:00 PM ET

Daily Basketball Picks
Los Angeles Clippers +2 This game is against New York at 8:00 PM ET
Akron -11.5 This game is against UNC-Greensberg at 7:00 PM ET

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SB Professor 12/18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** I have special instructions for tonight's NBA, please read this picks carefully.***

I have been calling all my sources offshore to find out the latest status update for Andre Iguodala of the Philadelpia 76ers. He played last game and the last update I have is Probable for tonight against Boston. I will not be online leading up to the game to pass this information on to you, so I strongly suggest you wait until there if official word on his status to make this bet.

If Iguodala goes, the Philadelphia 76ers are the strict * play at +12 tonight. Iverson is definitely out so that is factored into the line already. It looks like he is playing so that will probably hold. If not ...

Our other bet tonight is Denver -1. Billups is out for sure so that is factored into the line already. So in clearer terms:

If Iguodala goes for Philly the plays look like this:

Philadelphia 76ers +12*

Denver Nuggets -1

If he does not go, then it's:

Denver Nuggets -1*

Too important to not pass this along.

 

[LightsOut56]

CPAW, thanks for all you do, I love the trend reports and dunkel, sorry you have to deal with a lot of chodes talking out their ass, wish I could biiitch slap them for you