Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-CFB (5-1 or 83.3% in CFB '09)-Fri
My 20* Club-80 Play is on Bowling Green at 2:00 ET. Bowling Green's season looked "dead in the water" when the Falcons lost 44-37 at home to Ohio U on October 3 (a Homecoming Game, no less). However, despite a rushing game which ranks 117th out of 120 FBS schools at 74.8 YPG (2.7 YPC), BG has won FIVE of its last six games (losing only to Central Michigan). Toledo snapped a three-game losing skid in its last outing, beating Eastern Michigan 47-21 (Eagles are just 1-10 in 2009). The win moved Toledo to 5-6 on the season. Putting points on the board has not been a problem for the Rockets, as they average 30.2 PPG. Toledo's running game is sound (159.9 YPG) and both four-year player Aaron Opelt plus freshman Austin Dantin have produced at QB. Regardless of who plays in this game, WRs Eric Page (75 catches / 1,029 yards / 7 TDs) and Stephen Williams 71 catches / 983 yards / 5 TDs) have proven to be quality performers. The problem for Toledo has been its defense, which is allowing 37.6 PPG (ranks 115th). The Rockets have struggled against the run (167.3 YPG / 30 TDs) but that's not a worry vs BG. However, the pass D has allowed 250.9 YPG (102nd) with 24 TDs allowed and just 12 INTs. That spells BAD NEWS against the combination of Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has thrown for 3,528 yards this year, completing 64.6% with 21 TDs and just six INTs. During the team's 5-1 run, he's average 345.3 YPG through the air with 14 TDs and just three INTs. Barnes has caught 76 passes during that same stretch, topping 100 yards in each game, averaging 173.0 YPG (12 TDs). He's got 129 receptions on the season, within reach of the all-time single-season record owned by Manny Hazard of Houston (142) set in 1989. These schools are just 26 miles apart and usually when they get together it produces an exciting matchup. However, here's the catch. BG likely needs a win (and a 7-5 record) to garner a bowl bid. The Falcons are not just on a strong 'closing kick' in 2009. BG has been a great "November team" since the 2007 season with a 10-1 (90.9%) ATS mark in November games, averaging 36.1 PPG. Club-80 Play 20* Bowling Green.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Double-PERFECT STORM-CFB (8-3 or 72.7% in CFB '09)-Fri
My 20* Double-PERFECT STORM is on West Va at 7:00 ET. The 102nd edition of the "Backyard Brawl" is set for Friday in Morgantown, West Va. The Pitt Panthers are 9-1 and ranked No. 8 and the Mountaineers come in 7-3. How about the Big East this year? It was the only BCS conference to not have a single school ranked in any of the major preseason top-25 polls. However, on Thanksgiving weekend, Cincinnati is 10-0 and ranked 5th while Pitt 9-1 and ranked 8th. If Pitt were to win out (beat West Va here and Cincy next week), Pitt would get the automatic BCS Bowl bid and Cincy would be a strong contender for an at-large bid. That's not all. Rutgers, USF and West Va are all 7-3 and each school has been ranked at least ONCE in the weekly AP poll this yeear. Pitt comes in on a six-game winning streak and is 9-1 for the first time since Dan Marino's senior season of 1982. Not bad for head coach Dave Wannstedt who was on the coaching 'hot seat' just two years ago going into that year's "Backyard Brawl." Wannstedt acknowledges the Panthers' 2007 win over the Mountaineers as a turning point for his program and his own coaching career. Pittsburgh had come into that game 4-7 but including that win, his team has gone 19-5. QB Stull is hardly 'loved' by the Pitt fans but he's completed 66.3 percent of his passes this year with 18 TDs and just four INTs. Pitt fans do LOVE freshman RB Dion Lewis (1,291 YR / 5.8 YPC / 13 TDs) and with good reason. There's nothing wrong with that Pitt D either, as the Panthers allow 17.6 PPG (19th) and 314.7 YPG (21st). Now to the Mountaineers. With a win here and at Rutgers on Dec 5, West Va would finish at 9-3 (if Pitt would lose to Cincy, West Va would actually finish 2nd to the Bearcats in the Big East). However, those calculations mean little here to West Va. The Mountaineers really WANT this game (more in just a little bit). Don't dismiss this West Va team. The defense is sound, as evidenced by the team's recent 24-21 loss at Cincy, holding down the Bearcats, who have averaged 40 PPG in their other nine games this season. QB Jarrett Brown can throw and run and Noel Devine (1,098 YR / 5.7 YPC / 10 TDs) is one of the nation's most dynamic RBs. Now back to motivation. Forget about last year's 19-15 win by the Panthers in Pittsburgh. It's the 2007 game in Morgantown that will be the rallying cry for the Mountaineers in this one. Led by Rich Rodriguez, that Michigan man, the Mountaineers were just a win over Pitt away from qualifying for the 2007 BCS championship game. Pitt, a 4-7 team., came into Morgantown a 29-point underdog and beat the Mountaineers, 13-9. As mentioned earlier, Wannstedt recognizes that game as a turning point for him and his program and it has to rank as the "biggest disappointment" in West Va's football history. West Va did play a "de-facto national title game" against Notre Dame in the 1988 Fiesta Bowl (losing to the Irish 34-21) but that 2007 still 'stings.' Two weeks after that loss to Pitt, Rodriguez "got out of Dodge," on his way to Ann Arbor. Let me point out that West Va is 33-5 SU at home since 2004 and with a win here, would finish undefeated in Morgantown for the first time since 1993. I believe this scenario sets up a "perfect storm" for West Va. Why am I calling it a "Double-Perfect Storm?" Here's why. Pitt is ranked No. 9 in the latest BCS standings (its highest rating ever) and while this is the "Backyard Brawl," the Panthers will host Cincinnati next weekend with the winner of that game earning the Big East title (and the automatic BCS bid) REGARDLESS of the outcome of this game. Double-PERFECT STORM 20* West Va.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry's CFB Rivalry Shocker of the Month- Part 1 (65% CFB run s/Oct 21)-Fri
My 15* Rivalry Shocker of the Month is on Colorado at 3:30 ET. As we saw last night in College Station, rivalry games can "bring out the best" in some underdogs. One has to chose the "right ones." I believe I've done just that with Colorado, which is in a perfect situation to upset a 'flat' Nebraska team. Nebraska is headed for a Dec 5 showdown with Texas at Cowboys Stadium for the Big 12 championship game, win or lose here. More than that, Nebraska just isn't all that good. QB Zac Lee averages less than 170 YPG through the air (168.9 YPG) with a 12-7 ratio. The running game is nowhere the levels of past greatness with Helu (1,057 YR / 5.5 / 9TDs) the only player of note (No. 2 rusher has gained 159 yards). The defense is outstanding (10.3 PPG ranks 3rd in the nation / 281.3 YPG ranks 8th) but look at Nebraska's road games. The 'Huskers couldn't get in the end zone at Va Tech (five FGs) and at Missouri they trailed 12-0 into the 4th quarter when a 56-yard TD pass on a 3rd and eight play led to a three-TD burst in less than five minutes (the other two TDs set up by INTs). Nebraska barely won 20-10 at Baylor (had just 11 FDs and 273 total yards) and at Kansas on Nov 14, trailed 17-16 in the 4th quarter to a team currently on a six-game slide, before Helu's two TDs (the last coming with 29 seconds left) gave them a deceiving 31-17 win. Nebraska "is ripe for the plucking." Now Colorado must do its part. Dan Hawkins came to Boulder with a gaudy 53-11 record in five season at Boise St. Little has gone right. He was 2-10 in his first season, made it to a bowl game with a 6-6 regular season mark in 2007 (lost 30-24 to Ala) and then went 5-7 last season. The Buffs will finish with their FOURTH straight losing season this year (enter 3-8) with the year's lone bright spot being a 34-30 home win over then-No. 17 Kansas. Trouble is, that loss sent the Jayhwaks on a downward spiral that's seen the Jayhawks lose SIX straight games and put Mark Mangino on an even 'hotter' seast than Hawkins. That Kansas win hardly seems like much of a big deal now. Cody Hawkins (Dan's son) has been a MAJOR flop at QB and Tyler Hansen has been only moderately better. RB Rodney Stewart has seen either feast or famine this year, topping 100 yards in four games (114.4 YPG) while averaging 39.3 YPG in his other six (DNP one game). However, let me get back to this being a 'flat' spot for Nebraska (Big 12 championship game looms vs Texas) and the rivalry aspect of this contest. The Big 12 was formed in 1996 and these schools have met in Boulder in odd-numbered years. I'll just list the scores. Nebraska won 27-24 in 1997 and 33-30 in 1999. Colorado FAMOUSLY won 62-36 in 2001 (Nebraska still went to the BCS title game), Nebraska won 31-22 in 2003, Nebraska won 30-3 in 2005 and Colorado won 65-51 in 2007. That means the Buffs would have covered this pointspread in FIVE of the six meetings. Take those points. Rivalry Shocker of the Month (Part 1) 15* Colorado.