THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Pittsburgh (9-1, 6-3 ATS) at West Virginia (7-3, 3-6 ATS)
The Panthers head to Morgantown for the 102nd edition of the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia, with Pitt looking to set up a Big East conference title showdown with Cincinnati on Dec. 5.
Pittsburgh sits at 5-0 in Big East play, half a game behind undefeated and fifth-ranked Cincinnati with next weekend’s matchup looming. The Panthers have won six straight overall (4-2 ATS) and come in to this one off their bye week. Back on Nov. 14, they beat Notre Dame 27-22 in Pittsburgh but came up just short as 5½-point favorites.
The Panthers are averaging 35 points a game this season and racking up 465.3 yards per contest over the last three, including 218 ypg on the ground. They are No. 19 in the country for points allowed, giving up just 17.6 points a game, and the defense leads the nation in sacks, totaling 41 to this point in the season.
West Virginia is also coming off its bye, but the Mountaineers dropped two of three (SU and ATS) before the week off. They fell in Cincinnati 24-21 and cashed as 9½-point underdogs on Nov. 13, but they’d failed to cover in four straight prior and six of the previous seven. The Mountaineers struggles have come on defense where they allow 220.7 yards per game through the air and 21.2 points per game.
The Panthers have won the last two in this rivalry, including a stunning 13-9 upset in Morgantown in 2007 as whopping 28½-point underdogs, a result that kept West Virginia from getting a berth in the national championship game. Last year Pitt scored a 19-15 home victory as three-point underdogs.
Pittsburgh is on ATS runs of 6-1 in Big East play, 10-4 on the road, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-0 on Fridays. Meanwhile, West Virginia is on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-7 at home against teams with winning road marks, 2-7 in Big East games, 2-5 after their bye week and 2-8 against winning teams.
For the Panthers, the “under” is on runs of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in conference play, 9-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 in November contests. The Mountaineers have topped the total in 17 of 24 November contests and eight of 10 coming off a bye week, but they are on “under” runs of 5-2 in Big East action and 4-1 on Fridays. The “under” has been the play in the last two series clashes in five of the last eight.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Temple (9-2, 8-2 ATS) at Ohio (8-3, 7-4 ATS)
The Mid-American Conference’s East Division is up for grabs as Temple travels to Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, to take on the Bobcats.
The Owls have a one-game lead in the conference standings over Ohio, with the winner today grabbing the berth in next week’s MAC title game against Central Michigan.
Temple has won nine straight (7-2 ATS) and crushed Kent State 47-13 last week, easily covering as a 10-point home favorite. The Owls got 156 yards rushing from Matt Brown and two touchdowns and returned an interception for a touchdown. They are averaging 45.7 points and 252.3 rushing yards per game in their last three.
Ohio has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and six of seven overall (5-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 38-31 home win over Northern Illinois, cashing as a 1½-point favorite to keep its division title hopes alive. The Bobcats used a punt return and an interception return to put points on the board and QB Theo Scott threw three scoring strikes to take down Northern Illinois.
These teams have split their two all-time meetings the last two years, with Temple scoring a 14-10 win last year, pushing as a four-point favorite, and Ohio getting a 23-7 home victory in 2007, cashing as a nine-point chalk.
Temple is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 20-8-1 overall, 19-7-1 in MAC contests, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Fridays, 4-1 as a road favorite and 6-2 as a favorite. Ohio hasn’t been bad at the betting window wither, currently riding ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 7-2 in conference play, 5-0 on Fridays, 6-2 against winning teams and 4-1 as an underdog.
The Owls are on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 6-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 6-1 in November games and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have stayed under the posted number in four of five at home, but topped the total in four of five as ‘dogs and four straight in November action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(2) Alabama (11-0, 7-3 ATS) at Auburn (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
The Crimson Tide roll into Jordan Hare Stadium to take on Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl, with Alabama trying to stay focused on the Tigers before next weekend’s SEC Championship Game against top-ranked Florida.
Alabama fields the most dominant defense in the country, allowing just 9.9 points, 225.2 total yards and 70.5 rushing yards per game (all good for second-best in the country) and 154.6 passing ypg (No. 5 in the country). The Crimson Tide tuned up for this game with a 45-0 rout of Division I-AA Chattanooga on Saturday in a non-lined game.
The Alabama offense is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Mark Ingram, who has rushed for 1,399 yards and 12 TDs and caught 25 passes for 225 yards and three scores. The sophomore has topped the 100-yard rushing mark in each of his last three games, averaging 9.3 yards a carry and scoring twice against Chattanooga on Saturday.
Auburn has lost four of its last six contests (1-5 ATS) but had last weekend off to get ready for this one. In their most recent contest, the Tigers went to Georgia and fell 31-24 on Nov. 14, coming up short as a four-point underdog. Auburn’s defense has been getting torched for 27 points and 359.2 yards per outing this season. Offensively, the Tigers have been especially dominant at home, amassing 496.6 total ypg and 246 rushing ypg.
The Crimson Tide snapped a six-game Iron Bowl losing streak (2-4 ATS) last year with a 36-0 drubbing at home, easily cashing as a 14½-point favorite. The straight-up winner in this rivalry has gotten the cash in eight of the last 10 meetings. Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Auburn, but the home team is on a 4-1 ATS roll in this series, with the favorite a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years.
It’s been all positives at the betting window lately for Alabama, including runs of 9-3 against SEC teams, 8-1 on the road, 6-1 in November, 12-5 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road favorite and 11-5 after a straight-up win. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home ‘dog, but otherwise they’re on negative pointspread trends of 1-5 overall, 2-10 after a non-cover, 1-4 in SEC action, 1-4 in November and 1-7 after a straight-up loss.
Alabama is on several “under” streaks, including 8-2 in November, 8-2 in SEC contests, 5-1 overall, 5-1 as a favorite and 34-11-1 when favored by 10½ points or more. Auburn has topped the total in six of seven at home, and seven of 11 overall, but it is also on “under” runs of 16-7-1 in SEC action, 7-3 as a home ‘dog and 4-1-1 in November. Finally, the “under” is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
Illinois (3-7 SU and ATS) at (5) Cincinnati (10-0, 6-4 ATS)
With a showdown for the Big East conference championship looming next week at Pittburgh, the home-standing Bearcats will try to avoid a letdown and dispose of struggling Illinois in a non-conference matchup at Nippert Stadium.
Despite its perfect record, Cincinnati comes into today only a half-game ahead of Pitt in the Big East standings. The Bearcats will travel to Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 in the much-anticipated battle for the league crown and automatic BCS Bowl berth.
Cincinnati’s Tony Pike will return to the starting QB spot today for the first time since Oct. 15. Before suffering an injury to his non-throwing forearm, Pike threw for 1,633 yards and 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions in six games, and he leads an offense that’s ranked sixth nationally in scoring at 38.4 points per game. The Bearcats are also in the top 10 in passing offense, but they can also run the ball, as sophomore RB Isaiah Pead showed two weeks ago when he racked up 175 yards rushing on 18 carries in a 24-21 home win over West Virginia, failing to cover as 9½-point favorites.
Illinois dropped six of its first seven games – with the one win coming against Division I-AA Illinois State – but the Illini have since won two of their last three, with conference victories against Michigan (38-13 as a seven-point home underdog) and Minnesota (35-32 as a 6½-point road pup). QB Juice Williams has had a miserable senior season for Illinois, throwing for just 1,139 yards with six TDs and five INTs. Illinois has scored 17 points or less in seven of its last nine outings, including a 21-16 home loss to Northwestern as a six-point favorite on Nov. 14.
This is the first-even meeting between these two schools.
The Illini have cashed in four of their last five games as road ‘dogs, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 3-10 overall, 2-5 on the road, 11-27 after a non-cover, 1-4 in November and 1-10 in non-conference action. Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS after a bye week, but on ATS skids of 1-4 in non-conference games, 2-5 as a home favorite and 1-5 at home against teams with losing road records.
Illinois has topped the total in seven of nine as a road ‘dog, but it is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 13-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Bearcats have gone “over” the posted number in 10 of their last 14 November games and five straight after a bye week, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten games, 6-0 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-0 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER
Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at (6) Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS)
The top two teams in the Western Athletic Conference square off on the “Smurf Turf” at Bronco Stadium, as red-hot Nevada takes on unbeaten Boise State in the most anticipated conference game of the season.
Nevada leads the WAC at 7-0, a half-game ahead of Boise State as the Broncos have one league contest remaining next week at lowly New Mexico State. The Broncos are looking for not only a WAC title but also an at-large berth in a BCS bowl game.
The Wolf Pack have college football’s No. 1 rushing offense (373.8 yards per game) and second-ranked overall offense (534.8 total yards per contest). Nevada, winners of eight straight (6-2 ATS), averages 41.3 points a game on the season, including 55.6 ppg over the last five. The Wolf Pack have scored 52 or more points in each of their last three games (3-0 ATS) while the defense has held the opposition to 20 points or less in those three.
Nevada went to New Mexico State on Saturday and scored a 63-20 win as 30½-point favorites. The Wolf Pack rushed for 581 yards in the win with three players topping the 100-yard mark in Luke Lippincott (19 carries for 162 yards), Vai Taua (13 carries for 126 yards) and QB Colin Kaepernick (nine carries for 114 yards). All three of those players have more than 1,000 rushing yards on the season, an NCAA record for one team..
Boise State, winners of 56 straight on its crazy home field, is looking for a least a share of its sixth WAC title in the last eight years. The Broncos lead the nation at 44.4 points per game and are in the Top 10 in total offense (456 ypg), thanks to QB Kellen Moore, who is second in the nation with 33 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. A week ago tonight, Moore’s offense rushed for a season-high 323 yards in a 52-21 win over Utah State, with the Broncos cashing as a 22-point favorite. Doug Martin had a team-high 121 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 13 carries while Jeremy Avery added two more scores on the ground.
Boise State has a nine-game winning streak (8-1 ATS) against Nevada, including last year’s 41-34 win in Reno, narrowly cashing as a 6½-point favorite. However, last time these two met in Boise, it was a four-overtime thriller that the Broncos ended up winning 69-67, but they came nowhere near covering the 25-point line. In this rivalry, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, while the road team has cashed in four of the last five.
Nevada is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 in November and 4-1 after a straight-up win, but it is on ATS skids of 2-5 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog, 0-5 on the road against teams with winning home records and 6-13 as a road ‘dog. Boise State is on a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 20-8-1 overall, 44-18-2 at home, 18-7-1 as a favorite, 31-10-2 in November, 7-1 in WAC games and 4-1 on Fridays.
The Wolf Pack have stayed “under” the total in four straight Friday outings, but they’re otherwise on “over” streaks of 7-3 versus WAC teams, 5-2 on the road, 5-1 in November and 9-3 following a straight-up win. The Broncos are on “under” runs of 5-1 at home and 4-1 as a home favorite, but they have topped the total in four of five overall, seven of eight within the WAC and five straight on Friday. Finally, these two have easily gone “over” the number in the last two series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (7-6 SU and ATS) at Houston (8-7, 9-6 ATS)
The Spurs take their three-game winning streak to the Toyota Center to take on the instate and Southwest Division rival Rockets.
San Antonio has discovered its offense lately, scoring 106 points or more in each of the last three, including Wednesday’s 118-104 home win over the Warriors, barely covering the 13½-point line. In fact, after hitting triple digits just three times in the first 10 games, the Spurs are averaging 112 points per contest in the last three. Tony Parker led the surge on Wednesday with 32 points and seven assists.
Houston is coming off Wednesday’s ugly 130-99 loss to the Mavericks as four-point home favorites. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses in their last 10 games (5-5 ATS) and will be wrapping up a three-game homestand with this one. The defense has abandoned Houston lately, allowing 104.3 points a game and 49 percent shooting from the floor in the last five games.
This is the first meeting between these rivals this season after the two split last year’s four games (SU and ATS) with each winning once at home and once on the road. The underdog holds a 9-4 ATS edge in the last 13 series clashes.
The Spurs have cashed in five straight after getting a day off, but they are on ATS slides of 0-6 on the road, 0-5 as road ‘dogs, 1-5 as an underdog, 3-9 after a spread-cover, 3-8 against Southwest Division teams and 4-10 after a straight-up win. Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 after a day off, 39-19 after a straight-up loss and 37-16 after a non-cover.
San Antonio is on “over” streaks of 9-3-1 after a day off and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-2 on the road, 20-6 against opponents with winning records and 4-1-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Houston is on “under” streaks of 7-3 as a home favorite, 20-8 following a non-cover and 8-2 against Southwest Division squads, but it is on “over” runs of 10-4 overall and 5-2 at home. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in 23 of 29 meetings, including five of six in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
