Service Plays Friday 11/27/09

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

3* = Colorado
3* = No. Illinois
2* = Pittsburgh
2* = Nevada
 

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Pointwise




POINTWISE

College Key Releases:



Rating 1: ALABAMA over Auburn
Rating 5: BOWLING GREEN over Toledo
Rating 5: BOISE STATE over Nevada
 

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THE MAX

Pitt (-1½) @West Virginia
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Pitt is a pretty complete team and should be able to
handle a West Virginia team that is less of an
offensive threat than it was with Pat White. West
Virginia is throwing more than they did under Rich
Rodriguez but they haven’t completely abandoned
the spread option looks. Pitt defensive coordinator
Phil Bennett cut his teeth in the old Southwest
Conference (DL coach at Texas A&M) and Big 12
(DC at Iowa State) back in the early to mid-80’s, so
he knew all about the option teams like Oklahoma,
Nebraska, and Texas. Armed with that knowledge,
his Panthers have shut down the Mountaineers,
holding them to 9 and 15 points in Pitt wins the past
two years. The Panthers have been solid
defensively and this year their offense has really
caught up with the defense. Coordinator Frank
Cignetti, Jr. (offensive coordinator at Fresno State,
North Carolina, and Cal) arrived this winter and
immediately upgraded the quarterback coaching.
He’s getting a lot of credit for the (finally)
development of Bill Stull into a true threat. Still
entered the season with 11 TD passes and 10
interceptions for his career and is lighting it up with
18 TD passes and 4 INT’s on the season. Ironically
Cignetti’s dad was the head coach of West Virginia
from 1976-1979, a forgettable head man between
Bobby Bowden and Don Nehlen.
Backyard Brawl is a meaningful rivalry for both
teams and certainly would usually look to play a
rested home dog in a rivalry. But the Pitt also was
off last weekend and has really been far superior to
West Virginia this season. In conference play the
Panthers average 6.6 yards per play while giving up
4.7, for a net of +1.9. The Mountaineers gain 5.2
yards per play and give up 5.9, for a net of -0.7.
Pitt outscores conference foes on average by 18
points, WVU outscores them by 4 points. Using the
“yards per” numbers isolated by Dave Fobare for
conference play only, Pitt has the better running
game, passing game, run defense, and pass
defense.
Both of these clubs had last week off so they should be
each be ready to fire their best shot. Plenty of Pitt fans will
be in attendance (the reverse is true when the
Mountaineers travel the hour north to Pittsburgh) and in
those rivalry games the familiarity results in a little bit less
of a home field edge. Expect a solid win by a Pitt team
that has been quietly showing all season that this season
they are the superior club to their rival to the south. Pitt
by only 7.





@Auburn +10½ over Alabama
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
It seems odd now, but before #2 Alabama
waxed the Tigers 36-0 last season to end
Tommy Tuberville's reign Auburn had won six
in a row in this series. And it may seem even
odder to see a double-digit road favorite in a
big rivalry game when the underdog scores
better than 30 points per game. But Alabama
has a date for the national title game if it can
beat Florida in the SEC title game, while
Auburn has faded in SEC play, covering just
one in its last five FBS games.
This is a great emotional spot for the
Plainsmen. Facing a highly ranked team in your
final regular season matchup just amps up the
motivation even more. My database says that
teams playing in their final game of the season,
at home, getting at least 4 points and facing a
conference opponent that is ranked in the top
20 are 57-27 ATS. That includes 2-0 this
season. Last week this spot tabbed Michigan
over Ohio State - lost 21-10 as +12 - and
Northwestern over Wisconsin - Wildcats won
outright 33-31 as +7.
And there is lots of other tech stuff as well.
There is a 47-16 ATS late season "rested
homer" play active here that won two weeks
ago for me with Stanford over Oregon. Also a
96-63 ATS shutout revenge play triggered by
Bama's win last season.
And then there is the tech against Bama: a 119-183
ATS scheduling situation that is 32-50 ATS out of
sample (played against Rutgers last week) and 10-
24 ATS and 15-36 ATS "last road game" systems.
Both teams should be in good physical shape here
as both schools' ADs made sure their charges would
be well rested. Bama comes in off a gimme against
FCS opponent UT-Chattanooga, while Auburn had
the week off. Well, Auburn is better rested than
that. They've played just one competitive game in
the last month. Two weeks ago they played Georgia,
and the week before that a tune-up against Furman.
Points should be a premium here. The last nine Iron
Bowls have averaged a total of 33.5 points per game
and just two were decided by more than 10 points.
The Tide will roll in the end, but the War Eagles will
fly away with the cash. Alabama by only 3.
 

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SPORTS MEMO

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Colorado +10
Nebraska Colorado +10
Colorado (+18) 31 at Nebraska 40 - 2008 O/U 38 12:30 pm PT (ABC)


ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Colorado +10
Nebraska Colorado +10
Colorado (+18) 31 at Nebraska 40 - 2008 O/U 38 12:30 pm PT (ABC)


FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Auburn +12
Alabama Auburn +12
Auburn 0 at Alabama (-14.5) 36 - 2008 O/U 47.5 11:30 am PT (CBS)




ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: West Virginia +2
Pittsburgh West Virginia +2
 

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NC POWERSWEEP

2★ Rutgers over LOUISVILLE - Rutgers is 6-2 SU in the series and their 671 yds LY were the most
ever by a Schiano tm and the 63 pts were the most Rutgers has ever scored in a BE game. Rutgers
won 63-14 (-10’) at home vs a UL team with a banged up secondary. UL had been favored in the other
3 recent meetings but the HT is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. RU is 5-1 ATS on the BE road. For the 3rd straight
year RU trailed 14-0 to Syracuse but was unable to mount a comeback as the Knights were stunned
LW losing 31-13 to Syracuse (YES to Syr!!). RU played uncharacteristically sloppy on offense, defense
and was outcoached. RU entered the gm as #1 def in BE but all’d 424 to the #106 Syr off and the RU
off was held to 130 ttl yds!! Fr QB Savage is avg 160 ypg (54%) with a 10-4 ratio and RB Martinek (78
ypg, 5.0) will be more involved in the gm plan. L’Ville is off a 34-24 loss to USF all’g a ssn high 538 yds
to the same Bulls tm RU spanked. UL was fortunate early and often or the gm would have been out of
hand. This is UL’s fi nale but RU has slight off edge with big ST’s (#30-77) and def edges (#42-72). Last
week’s results give us good value here and the Knights rebound to fi nish the season strong.




UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLORADO (+12') over Nebraska
Over the past 26 years this play has been a reader favorite and over the L/9Y the Underdog Play
of the Week has recorded 33 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this
week's Underdog Play:
The HT has won 3 in a row SU/ATS but NU is 3-10 ATS vs CU. NU has outgained CU by 166 ypg the L/4
meetings. The Huskers (8-3 ATS TY) wrapped up the B12 North Title LW beating KSU. QB Lee is avg
186 ypg (60%) with a 12-7 ratio. CU suffered yet another loss on Thurs Night to OSU LW. QB Hansen
(167 ypg, 58%, 5-4 ratio) and C Hawkins (160 ypg, 51%, 10-11) split time LW and both could play here.
NU is 6-2 ATS on the road. Both tms offenses have been stuck in neutral (NU 345 ypg, CU 306 ypg)
but their defenses (NU 281 ypg, CU 376 ypg) have been solid. In B12 North gms TY CU has been
outgained by 71 ypg while NU is +54 ypg. NU does have UT on deck for the B12 Title and this may be
a fl at spot. CU is playing in their ssn/home fi nale, and under HC Hawkins (16-32) has not had a winning
year. The Buffs are 4-2 as a HD the L/2Y and an outright upset win would not surprise us.
FORECAST: COLORADO (+) 17 Nebraska 20
 

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NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS


IL has already clinched a losing season and Cincy is playing with pressure to stay undefeated
and has Pitt on deck which will decide the BE Champ and will result in a BCS bowl if they win. Hard
to stay focused on the Illini. PP says Cincy wins by 14 (line 17), but it could be even closer.
4★ ILLINOIS (+) 19 CINCINNATI 33



CM has the MAC Title game on deck, but shouldn’t look past this improved Huskies team in CM
QB LeFevour’s fi nal home game. PP calls for CM to win by 15 (line 9’) with a 414-281 yd edge.
4★ CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 18



Pitt spoiled #2 WV’s BCS Champ hopes in ‘07, and now WV will try to derail Pitt’s BCS hopes in
the Backyard Brawl. Pitt has a huge gm with Cincy on deck, but PP calls for Pitt to win by 6 (line 1).
3★ PITTSBURGH 25 WEST VIRGINIA 19
 

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THE MAXIMUS REPORT NCAAFB

Here is what I got from the MAXIMUS REPORT for the NCAA FB early morning plays on 11/27/09 - they said they will send me rest of day by 12:30pm tomorrow on 11/27/09

LOCKS------------------Prediction

Temple -2-------------------Temple 33-25

SOLIDS :

Illinois +20 1/2---------------Cincy 35-21

Temple/Ohio OVER 46------------58
 

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Tony George
Illinois +20.5

Some might think a stretch here, but with Big East foe Pitt on deck, this is a dangerous game for Cincy. Illinois has been a disappointment this year, but QB Juice Williams and company have competed well in losses as of late and have the physical strength here to keep this one a lower scoring game and stay within striking distance in the second half.

Cincy is off a 2 point and 3 point win in their last 2 games and the pressure is building as BCS talk, and the undefeated streak is on the line and in the spotlight. Cincy has not been as loose as earlierr in the season. Illinois as only allowerd 22 ppg their last 3 games, and keep this one close. Cincy disprupting the flow, starting QB Pike today, while pro prospect, he has not played in 4 or 5 weeks, and may affect chemistry. Check on QB Williams status here, but reports out of Illinois is he is playing on a slightly sore ankle.
 

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Brandon Lang 11/27
First and foremost, hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, I know I did.



And it was made all that much sweeter with my 5th straight 20 dime winner on the Broncos pushing my NFL run the last 4 weeks to 14-1-2.



Think about that number for a moment. 14-1-2 with Paid and comp plays the last 4 weeks. Just dialed in like never before.



Now let's roll out this college winner and keep the good times rolling.



15 DIME - WYOMING COWBOYS - I really don't feel this Colorado State should be favored against anybody right now.



They imploded last week at New Mexico pushing their 2009 ATS run to just 2 covers this entire year. Only twice has this team paid out.



The bottom line is this team has found ways to lose games all year now, and you just can't trust them in laying chalk.



Wyoming at least has been fighting and after the big game last week against TCU, things will seem really slow for them stepping down to take on Colorado State here.



Sometimes a school just wants a season to end, especially when it looked so promising when the season kicked off but it just hasn't been that way for this basketball team.



With a win today Wyoming becomes bowl matchup and I like them in this spot here to quite possibly win the game outright.



Let's ride em Cowboy with Wyoming today.



5 DIME - COLORADO BUFFALOES - Did you see Texas struggle with Texas A&M last night?



Nebraska faces that same situation against Colorado today. Regardless of what happens today they are in the Big 12 championship game versus Texas.



Can't fault them from suffering from the "Look Ahead" factor just like Texas last night.



Watching Colorado go into Oklahoma State as a 18 point underdog and almost winning the game outright told me a lot about this Dan Hawkins coached football team.



They almost won the game outright.



In a game I feel goes right down to the wire, but I am calling for Colorado to have a real shot at winning the game outright if they win the turnover battle and considering how Nebraska can turn it over with the best of them, like Colorado here.



Just like riding the Cowboys of Wyoming, I am riding the Buffaloes in Boulder to put forth a great effort and stay inside this number all day long.



FREE SELECTION - NEVADA WOLFPACK
 

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MIKE LINEBACK

Early Report Friday 11/27

Premium Selections

[113] 4* Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3 -110 | 11:00a ET
 

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Alen Eastman / ace ace

$300.00 Take #128 Cincinnati (-21) over Illinois (Noon, Friday, Nov. 27)


$800.00 Take #158 UAB (+3) over Central Florida (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)


$800.00 Take #159 Marshall (+1.5) over UTEP (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)


$300.00 Take #190 Stanford (-10) over Notre Dame (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)
 
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JOHN MORRISON
11/27 v2.0 NBA SYSTEM Play

11/27 Phoenix [A]
Minnesota

BUY 3 POINTS ON THE GAMES LISTED (Phoenix -6)
 
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NBA WRITE-UP


Friday, November 27

Hot Teams
-- Hawks won seven of their last nine games.
-- Miami won its last two games, by a point each; they're 1-6 against the spread in last seven games.
-- Bobcats won last two games by 16-35 points, after losing its previous seven contests. Cavaliers won last seven games (2-3 vs spread last five).
-- Celtics won three of last four games but are 0-6 vs spread in last six.
-- Bucks covered four of their last five road games.
-- Mavericks won six of their last seven games.
-- Rockets are 5-1 vs spread in game following a loss. Spurs won three games in row, by 22-14-14 points.
-- Nuggets won five of their last six games.
-- Suns are 12-3 in first 15 games, 7-3 on the road.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost last four games by combined total of 15 points.
-- Wizards lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Raptors lost five of their last seven games.
-- Thunder is 1-5 vs spread in game after their last six wins.
-- Pacers lost four of their last five games.
-- Pistons lost their last six gaes (2-4 vs spread). Clippers are 2-8 vs the spread in their last ten games.
-- Knicks lost nine of last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
-- Timberwolves lost 14 games in a row (1-9 vs spread in last ten).
-- Grizzlies are 1-7 on the road (3-5 as road dog).
-- Nets are 0-15 SU, but 6-4 vs spread in last ten. Kings lost four of last five gsmes, but they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Boston home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 vs spread in Milwaukee's last eight games.
-- Last three Dallas road games went over the total. Under is 9-3 in last twelve Indiana games.
-- Seven of last eight Detroit games went over the total; Clippers' last four games stayed under.
-- Last three Houston games went over the total.
-- Four of Knicks' last five games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Memphis games went over the total; eight of Blazers' last ten games stayed under.
-- Last nine New Jersey games stayed under the total.
 
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Kelso Parlay

25 units each on Rutgers, Temple,Bowling Green and Alabama. round robin of 6 X 2 and 1X 4 team parlay.
 

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