THE MAX
Pitt (-1½) @West Virginia
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Pitt is a pretty complete team and should be able to
handle a West Virginia team that is less of an
offensive threat than it was with Pat White. West
Virginia is throwing more than they did under Rich
Rodriguez but they haven’t completely abandoned
the spread option looks. Pitt defensive coordinator
Phil Bennett cut his teeth in the old Southwest
Conference (DL coach at Texas A&M) and Big 12
(DC at Iowa State) back in the early to mid-80’s, so
he knew all about the option teams like Oklahoma,
Nebraska, and Texas. Armed with that knowledge,
his Panthers have shut down the Mountaineers,
holding them to 9 and 15 points in Pitt wins the past
two years. The Panthers have been solid
defensively and this year their offense has really
caught up with the defense. Coordinator Frank
Cignetti, Jr. (offensive coordinator at Fresno State,
North Carolina, and Cal) arrived this winter and
immediately upgraded the quarterback coaching.
He’s getting a lot of credit for the (finally)
development of Bill Stull into a true threat. Still
entered the season with 11 TD passes and 10
interceptions for his career and is lighting it up with
18 TD passes and 4 INT’s on the season. Ironically
Cignetti’s dad was the head coach of West Virginia
from 1976-1979, a forgettable head man between
Bobby Bowden and Don Nehlen.
Backyard Brawl is a meaningful rivalry for both
teams and certainly would usually look to play a
rested home dog in a rivalry. But the Pitt also was
off last weekend and has really been far superior to
West Virginia this season. In conference play the
Panthers average 6.6 yards per play while giving up
4.7, for a net of +1.9. The Mountaineers gain 5.2
yards per play and give up 5.9, for a net of -0.7.
Pitt outscores conference foes on average by 18
points, WVU outscores them by 4 points. Using the
“yards per” numbers isolated by Dave Fobare for
conference play only, Pitt has the better running
game, passing game, run defense, and pass
defense.
Both of these clubs had last week off so they should be
each be ready to fire their best shot. Plenty of Pitt fans will
be in attendance (the reverse is true when the
Mountaineers travel the hour north to Pittsburgh) and in
those rivalry games the familiarity results in a little bit less
of a home field edge. Expect a solid win by a Pitt team
that has been quietly showing all season that this season
they are the superior club to their rival to the south. Pitt
by only 7.
@Auburn +10½ over Alabama
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
It seems odd now, but before #2 Alabama
waxed the Tigers 36-0 last season to end
Tommy Tuberville's reign Auburn had won six
in a row in this series. And it may seem even
odder to see a double-digit road favorite in a
big rivalry game when the underdog scores
better than 30 points per game. But Alabama
has a date for the national title game if it can
beat Florida in the SEC title game, while
Auburn has faded in SEC play, covering just
one in its last five FBS games.
This is a great emotional spot for the
Plainsmen. Facing a highly ranked team in your
final regular season matchup just amps up the
motivation even more. My database says that
teams playing in their final game of the season,
at home, getting at least 4 points and facing a
conference opponent that is ranked in the top
20 are 57-27 ATS. That includes 2-0 this
season. Last week this spot tabbed Michigan
over Ohio State - lost 21-10 as +12 - and
Northwestern over Wisconsin - Wildcats won
outright 33-31 as +7.
And there is lots of other tech stuff as well.
There is a 47-16 ATS late season "rested
homer" play active here that won two weeks
ago for me with Stanford over Oregon. Also a
96-63 ATS shutout revenge play triggered by
Bama's win last season.
And then there is the tech against Bama: a 119-183
ATS scheduling situation that is 32-50 ATS out of
sample (played against Rutgers last week) and 10-
24 ATS and 15-36 ATS "last road game" systems.
Both teams should be in good physical shape here
as both schools' ADs made sure their charges would
be well rested. Bama comes in off a gimme against
FCS opponent UT-Chattanooga, while Auburn had
the week off. Well, Auburn is better rested than
that. They've played just one competitive game in
the last month. Two weeks ago they played Georgia,
and the week before that a tune-up against Furman.
Points should be a premium here. The last nine Iron
Bowls have averaged a total of 33.5 points per game
and just two were decided by more than 10 points.
The Tide will roll in the end, but the War Eagles will
fly away with the cash. Alabama by only 3.