Service Plays Friday 11/13/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. East 11/13

MREAST NCAAF FRIDAY UNDER THE RADAR SPECIAL

#115 W. VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS @ #116 CINCINNATI BEARCATS 8:00PM EST

PLAY ON #115 W. VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS @ #116 CINCINNATI BEARCATS OVER 54 -110 FOR 4 UNITS

This is obviously a big game for both teams as Cincinnati is trying to stay unbeaten, and see if they can make a move toward a Championship Game if someone stumbles, and West Virginia with just 1 conference loss can draw even with the Bearcats with a win. The one thing that stands out to me in this game, is neither defense has been able to stop a good offense. The numbers look good defensively for both teams, but when you look where the numbers came from it opens eyes. W. Virginia played Liberty, who isn't even a FBS team, and 5 other teams ranked 74th or lower on offense. The only 3 games they played vs a legitimate offense was Uconn #36, S, Florida #58, and Auburn #11. Those teams averaged 31.7ppg against W. Virginia, and also 441 yards a game. What is even more glaring is the Mountaineers were defenseless against the pass, where they allowed over 9 yards an attempt on average in the 3 games. Well guess what? Cincinnati is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and will be up and down the field really fast in this one. Cincinnati is similar, as they played a non FBS team, as well as 4 others ranked 74th or worse offensively. Their 3 games against at least a decent offense showed 416 yards per game, 27.7ppg, so the Mountaianeers will move the ball on them as well. I see this one more in the 60+ range, and I'm playing this one over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lang 11/13/09

Friday's Selections ...
NOTE: Guess I knew I was in trouble when Miami-Ohio fumbled the opening kickoff, and less than 2 minutes into the game was down 7-0.

Just can't play catch up all night long when your QB throws 3 interceptions at home. My god. This kid was money on the road at Temple against a defense 3 times better than Bowling Green but as I always say, you can't handicap turnovers and in this case, 5 of them.

Did manage to hang on with NFL winner #4 in a row on the Niners. NFL looks good again this weekend as well off the 2-0 Sunday and the Steelers on Monday night.

Feel good about Temple and the NBA tonight. Feel really good. Just want the winning Friday and the weekend will take care of itself.

Weeknight football run Tuesday thru Friday the last 4 weeks, 9-3-1. Overall football run the last 6 days 10-2 including 4 straight NFL winners. Time to build on that tonight.

Now here is why I love Temple.

15 DIME - TEMPLE OWLS - You give this Temple Owls team a manageable number and they will get it done.

This year they have covered every single number in front of them with exception of two ball games and in those ballgames they were asked to cover double digits.

Laying 14 1/2 at home to Ball State they won by 5, and laying 17 at home to Miami-Ohio they won on the last play of the game 34-32.

Let's talk about that game for a moment.

They were up big 31-13, and had Miami pinned back on their own 11 facing a 2nd and 25. They somehow convert that, move to midfield and once again face an even more horriffic 2nd and 29.

They somehow get it to 4th and 4, and another breakdown in coverage gives Miami a 25 yard TD and following a 3-and-out, Temple's soft prevent allows Miami to go on a 9 play, 62 yard drive, and all of a sudden a 31-13 destruction turns into a 31-26 ballgame.

My feeling is this kind of game couldn't have come at a better time for Temple. With their first ever MAC championship game within their fingertips, I look for a complete renewed focus facing a 2-7 Akron team they should dominate defensively.

Temple runs the football. It's what they do and they have one of the best freshman running backs in the country in Bernard Pierce.

In their 9 games this year Akron's defense has been gashed for over 100 yards in 7 of those 9 games, including Central Michigan for 326, Syracuse for 234 and Northern Illinois for 275.

Teams have been putting 8 in the box the last 3 weeks to stop Temple's run game all year long and the Owls still have put up impressive numbers.

How about 211 at Toledo, 274 at Navy and 224 last week versus Miami-Ohio.

Temple has all the edges here and with best defensive front in the MAC facing a freshman QB, pressure gets the best of Akron tonight and Temple covers another ball game here.

5 DIME - PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - Love Philly in this spot here.

Now I understand both of these teams have been terrible against the number, as they have both only covered 2 games this year.

So the bottom line is something has to give here.

However, you look a little closer and you will see the fact Utah has yet to cover on the road, while the Sixers two home losses were to Boston and Phoenix.

My feeling is the Sixers at home as a small dog is the way to go, as the Jazz continue to struggle along at 3-5, just 1-3 on the road and as I said above, 0-4 ATS on the road as well.

Look for Philly to push tempo and get the Jazz out of their halfcourt set and for the Sixers to get the home win.

5 DIME - PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - Love going against a team that just fired their coach.

This New Orleans team is in trouble. Simple as that, and having a GM come down from the front office and coach isn't going to make a damn bit of difference. Hornets are on the way down.

Just as well Byron Scott doesn't coach this team. Let the GM come down and deal with it since it was his moves that created this mess.

New Orleans is 3-6 SU and ATS, and catch a Blazers team that is completely on the other side of that at 6-3 SU and ATS, including 4 straight wins and covers.

This game tonight is about one team knowing who they are, know how they are supposed to play and everyones roles are defined and set in place.

I'm rolling with the Blazers and the small chalk tonight

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WIN OR LOSE


Friday, November 13, 2009 -- Betting amounts are always TO WIN if the wager is on the favorite and TO RISK if the wager is on the underdog with money line or run line wagers. All wagers are based on a $1000 bankroll. If your bankroll is $5000 (5 times the $1000 bankroll), then multiply the wager amount below by five. Remember to check back in the day before 6:30 pm EST for possible added plays. Remember to check additional times on Saturday (11:30 am and 3:00 pm EST) and Sundays (3:30 pm EST and 7 pm EST).

Another good night: NFL 1-0, CFB 2-0, NBA 1-1 (and profitable), CBB 1-0, and NHL 6-5 (and profitable)! 10 winning days out of 12 so far November.
(we go by the month, but other services would be stating 12-2 out of the last 14 days as we also had winning days on the 30th and 31st of Oct.)

Look for more games today as many lines are not up yet.

*** CBB Game 789 Morehead State should move in our favor by game time as the Public loves Kentucky. You could get another point or two by game time. At 9:55 am the line of +21 was widely available.

Since this is a FREE FRIDAY edition to prove our track record is accurate, please remember that lines for early releases become official after 11 am - some move in our favor and some move against us. The track will record the early releases lines as of 11 AM. Anything posted after 11 am will have (ADDED) next to the pick. All picks you see listed will appear in our Track Record tomorrow morning. Please RE-READ above to make sure you will not miss out on late ADDED picks to our plays. Plays are added throughout the day and no more are added after 6:30 pm EST!!!

NCAA Football
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
113 Temple -4 -105 $7
116 Cincinnati -9.5 -108 $8

National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
*** No Games

National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread / Type Line Wager
56 CAR ML -120 $15
62 CHI -1.5 +154 $5

National Basketball Association (Remember we are Buying 2 Points)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
701 UTH ML -125 $14
704 ORL -13.5 -155 $11
704 NJ / ORL 187 -155 $5
705 GS +3.5 -155 $15
712 BOS -6.5 -155 $8
713 HOU -1.5 -155 $8
717 TOR ML -165 $9

NCAA Basketball
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
727 Cleveland St -1 -110 $6
730 Boston College -24.5 -110 $5
756 Tulane +10 -105 $6
764 St. Mary's -7 -105 $5
772 Rice -15.5 -108 $5
784 Montana -12.5 -110 $5
789 Morehead St +21 -110 $5**
792 DUKE -30.5 -110 $7
808 Mississippi St -15.5 -110 $5
812 Auburn -6 -110 $7

 

[eyedoc]

ras purdue uc davis ly marymount idaho pepperdine no ill all are one unit

 

[eyedoc]

ras add webber st

 

[Lt.Dan]

Any chance to get the lines RAS released with these? Thanks.

Purdue -20'
UC Davis +1
Loy-Mary +10
ID +12
Pepper +4
N. Ill +14'
Weber +4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Denver Money's NHL Friday 11/13

We once again finished with a great night going 5-1 missing only on our 1* with Rangers. We still picked up +6.95 units and made it 9-1 our last 10 games for +12.95 units. Let's see if we can't keep it going today with 3 more games. I am still waiting for a line to come out so please check back later for the 3rd game. Best of luck if you fade or follow:

Season Record is now: 53-39 +33.72

1* Anahiem Ducks +100

2* Buffalo Sabres -130

2* LA Kings / Atlanta OVER 6 -130

 

[MysteryMan]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Friday, November 13, 2009
3*Cincinnati (-9½) over West Virginia

8:00 PM -- Nippert Stadium

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

from a friend

A.REDD

20-Dime West Virginia

20-Dime Hawks

20-Dime Akron

 

[cork999]

Craig Davis Friday's Lineup
30 Dime --- TEMPLE (Buy the 1/2 point)

15 Dime --- WARRIORS

10 Dime --- ROCKETS

TEMPLE OWLS (be sure to buy the 1/2 point whether your number is -4 1/2, -4, -3 1/2 or -3 as these are all key numbers in college football) --- This game is going to come down to one thing and one thing only... Temple's running game. Freshman RB Bernard Pierce is one of the best RBs in college football that no one's talking about, and I'm here to tell you this guy is the real deal. Pierce already has 1211 yards rushing, not to mention his 14 TDs. He has surpassed 175 yards on the ground in each of his last three games to go along with 8 rushing TDs... so it appears he's getting stronger as the season goes on. Pierce is a unique runner who can not only run effectively outside the tackles but he's also not afraid to get his hands dirty and bust a few right up the middle. Pierce is running like a senior at just 19 years old and is honestly the sole reason this team is 7-2, including seven straight wins.

As for Akron... well, they're awful. In every facet of the word "awful", they're awful. They don't run it well (just 3.2 yards per carry), they don't throw it well (having already used three QBs this year) and don't really play very good defense. It's not surprising the Zips are just 2-7 on the year... and one of those wins was against lowly Morgan State. They're only other win, coming last week, was in conference against Kent State --- but if you look at their record you can see that win should have been expected. Kent State's record is a bit misleading as they are seriously on about the same level as Akron, despite their 4-2 conference record.

The number that stood out to me was the horrendous run defense that Akron rolls out there each week. The Zips surrender the exact same number of yards on the ground per game as the Owls average on offense. So I think it's safe to say Temple, with Pierce, will clearly have their way with this Akron defense. They'll control the tempo, chew up the clock, and likely win the battle of field position. This might not be as exciting as West Virginia/Cincy in terms of entertainment value, but it's the best bet on the board... you can be sure of that. Like I said, Temple has won 7 straight games after dropping their first two of the season, having covered ALL FOUR of their roadies in 2009. The Owls have covered 7 of their last 9 lined games overall while Akron is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games. The Owls are also 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 conference games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 when coming in off an ATS loss, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Temple wins and covers rather easily tonight.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS --- Just curious... who are the NY Knicks to be laying points to anyone right now? Okay, I realize the Warriors really don't appear to be all that much better right now, but I've seen both of these teams play and I'm telling you, the Knicks might be one of the worst two or three teams in basketball. They don't defend, they don't shoot well, they don't rebound... really the only thing they can hang their hat on is their free throw shooting (over 80% per game). And when it comes right down to it, we have two perceived, high-powered offenses doing battle... and one of them shoots the 3 exceptionally well --- the other one doesn't. Golden State hits nearly 41% of their shots from behind the arc while New York is hitting at a 29% clip. Like I said, when neither team plays defense and one of them clearly shoots better from the field and from the three-point arc, you have to side with the better shooting team, don't you? Yes, I understand that the Warriors likely can't keep up this 41% shooting from downtown all season, but right now they are hot from out there and until that stops, it's hard not to back them when they're getting points... especially when facing a team that doesn't play a lick of defense. Take the points and enjoy the win.

HOUSTON ROCKETS --- Like I mentioned already a few times this year... the Sacramento Kings are a bad basketball team, but the fact that they've already won four games gives us tremendous line value in this one. But honestly, who have the Kings beaten this year? OKC, Memphis, Golden State and Utah. Admittedly, the Utah win was a bit surprising, but it's not like the Jazz are playing good basketball right now either. Houston is clearly the superior team, even without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest, and should make quick work against a less-experienced Kings starting five. Sacto will also be without their best player, G Kevin Martin, who is still dealing with broken bones in his shooting wrist. Don't get me wrong... Sacramento has clearly surprised me to this point in the season and they are fun to watch because they like to push the tempo, but they just don't have that one, go to player, with Martin on the bench, that can be counted on when the game is on the line. My thought here is... Houston is deeper, a little more experienced, and better defenders... and in the end they will use that defense to clamp down on the Kings in the fourth quarter en route to a fairly easy 10-point win on the road.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Bob Valentino
Friday's 25 Dime winner ... 25 DIME: West Virginia-Cincinnati OVER THE TOTAL

NOTE: This is a play on tonight's game going OVER the posted total. This is not a pointspread -- or side -- release. Again, we're playing West Virginia-Cincinnati OVER the total.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS....10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS 20 DIMER - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

The longer a team remains unbeaten, the bigger the bullseye on their back becomes, and the bigger the number they are asked to cover.

That is the case tonight with the Bearcats, as this line is a few points too high.

I am taking the Mountaineers plus the points as I fully expect another close game in this series. The last 2 meetings have seen the visitor win outright, as West Virginia won by 5 at Cincinnati in 2007, while Cincy won by 3 last season in Morgantown.

Both Jarrett Brown, and Noel Devine are listed as probable for the Mountaineers, while Tony Pike is now listed as probable for Cincinnati, and that is where red-flag number one arises for Brian Kelly's team!

Zach Collaros has been brilliant filling in for the injured Pike, so what do you do as far as getting Pike into the game?

What about the fact that this is still a young Bearcats team that nearly choked the outright last week versus Connecticut?

And finally, what about the fact that Brian Kelly's name is now being talked about for the Notre Dame head coaching gig?

Distractions, distractions.

Pressure, pressure.

The Mountaineers can make a big jump with the win tonight, but I will settle for the cover.

Take the points!

10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS

When last these 2 teams met, the Lakers eliminated the Nuggets in 6 games and went on to capture the NBA Championship.

Denver has been itching to get some payback, and tonight looks like the night, as the Lakers were in action last night at home in a romp of Phoenix, and now must go into the thin air and battle Denver for a 48-minute session.

Denver had the night off after a grueling 6 game road trek, and they are a positive 9-3 against the spread their last 12 at home.

LA is 0-1 ATS when playing in back-to-back situations, make that 0-2 after tonight.

Take the Nuggs.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED --------GL-------GUYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Unlocked Sports 11/13

NHL 4* Calgary/Buffalo UNDER 5.5 -125

 

[thefox]

apache's flaming arrow ( free selection )
oregon

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben West Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He was 4 - 4 yesterday (+1 Unit)
Since Tuesday 14 - 9 for (+28 Units)

Today's Plays

NCAA FB
5* Temple (-5)

NBA
3* Portland Trailblazers (-2.5)
3* Minnesota Timberwolves (+11)
3* Houston Rockets (-4.5)

NCAA BB
5* Cleveland State (PK)
5* Penn State (-14)
5* Northwestern (-14)
5* Cal Poly SLO (+12)
5* Morehead State (+20.5)
5* Pittsburgh (-17)
5* Idaho State (+13)

NHL
3* Columbus Blue Jackets (-120)
3* Atlanta Thrashers (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Billy coleman
4* mississippi cbb
from the nc line

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Anaheim at Columbus (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Anaheim -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Columbus Blue Jackets must regroup from their most humiliating loss - a 9-1 setback at the hands of the Detroit Red Wings. The bigger issue that was emphasized in that one was the shoddy goaltending and lack of defense. After a 5-1 start, the Jackets have allowed an amazing 51 goals in their last 11 games, nearly five per contest. That will make the task at hand difficult against a Duck's team that has found the net 28 times in the last eight games, or averaging 3.5 per. The Blue Jackets have not rebounded well off a big loss as they are now 1-7 off a loss by three goals or more. Anaheim gets this one.
Game: New York Islanders at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

The Carolina Hurricanes stand at a surprising 2-12-3 to start the season - their worst start in franchise history including their days as the Hartford Whalers. One quick-to-see reason is the fact that they have allowed a minimum of three goals in each of their last 10 games. That is simply something you don't see in this era of the NHL. When you add into the equation that the NY Islanders have allowed three or more goals in 13 of 18, we have the makings of a shootout here. This is especially true when considering that on the road, those Islanders’ stats of 3+ becomes eight out of nine games. History may be ready to repeat itself tonight as these two clubs have produced an OVER in each of the last six meetings. OVER gets the call in this one.
Game: Los Angeles at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Atlanta Thrashers have spent a lot of time on the road. They haven't been home enough to gain any semblance of a home ice advantage. They have won just twice here all season, and have won here just once in their last five and it took a shootout to accomplish that. The goaltending has been suspect allowing four goals or more in six of their last nine games, making it hard to win. Los Angeles has been winning on the road to the tune of a 6-4-1 mark, and has been a perfect 4-0 against teams that are .400 or less at home. The Thrashers’ next problem is playing on consecutive nights where they have been a poor 10-26 in their last 36 on the back end. I'll go with the Kings in this one.
Game: Calgary at Buffalo (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Buffalo -130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.1)

Calgary and Buffalo have opened as two of the top teams in the NHL this season. The Flames have won four straight and getting great goaltending, but the offense has really been nonexistent with just 12 goals in the last six games. The Sabres have tallied 25 in their last seven at home, and should be able to crack the net enough in this one to get the win. The Flames have flamed out as a dog, where they are just 7-20 in their last 27 as a dog of +110 to +150. They have also struggled against top teams on the road, where they are 18-44 against a home team with a .600 winning percentage or higher on home ice. The Sabres are 9-2 after allowing two or fewer goals last time out. The Sabres take this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

NBA:Sacramento +4
CBB:South Florida -1.5

5 and 3 last 8 Picks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's NBA 11/13

4U New Jersey +15 ½
3U Golden State/New York UNDER 224 ½
4U Sacramento +4 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle 11/13

Randall the Handle

NY Islanders +1.07 over CAROLINA (REG) Pinnacle
Win, lose or draw, this “betting against the Canes” train keeps rolling and there’s no reason to get off until they show us something different. Carolina has now dropped a remarkable 13 games in a row and once again they’re sure not going to get any sympathy from this perennial bottom feeder. The Islanders are finally onto something good after years of futility. At the very worse, they’ll come out enthusiastically like they always do and play hard for 60 minutes. The Islanders have dropped three of four after a four-game winning streak, however, the losses came against the red-hot Sabres and Devils followed by an OT loss in Washington. Now the Islanders will take a huge, huge step down in class from that quartet and its chances of winning are greater than the Islanders chances. Any take-back against this frustrated and beaten down host has to be considered a good one. Play: NY Islanders +1.07 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +1.97 over CHICAGO (REG) Pinnacle
The Blackhawks remain one of the most overvalued teams in the league due to its great start this season after they put the hockey world on notice last year. They were a big favorite over the Av’s last game and although they won 3-2 in OT they were not the better team. The Av’s led 2-1 late and after Chicago tied it, Colorado hit three posts in the final minutes of the game. The Blackhawks have also played one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the Leafs have played extremely well on the road and extremely well over the past 10 games or so. They’ve picked up points in all but one of its last eight and they’re most definitely a tough team to beat. Chicago’s biggest weakness is its goaltending and when you’re a huge favorite with shaky goaltending you’re also a huge risk at such a big price. It’s for that reason, among others, (the Blackhawks have the Sharks on deck) that the Maple Leafs are a solid pooch in a game they most definitely have a chance to win.

BUFFALO -½ +1.34 over Calgary Pinnacle
If nothing else, one has to trust that the Flames could very easily overlook this one in anticipation of a game tomorrow night on hockey’s biggest stage. Playing in prime time on Hockey Night in Canada in Montreal or Toronto is equivalent to NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football. It’s also worth noting that the Flames and Sabres have met just four times over the past seven years, thus, the motivation level for the Flames could be low in anticipation of tomorrow night’s match-up. In addition, the Sabres are just so tough to beat, especially at home, where they have six wins in eight games. The Flames are tough; make no mistake about that, not to mention an outstanding road record as well. However, this one is a good situational play in the Sabres favor and it says here the Flames will be ripe to get beat. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).