THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
West Virginia (7-2, 2-6 ATS) at (5) Cincinnati (9-0, 5-3 ATS)
The Bearcats will be shooting for their first 10-0 start in school history when they welcome the Mountaineers to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati for a Big East matchup between two of the top three teams in the conference.
Cincinnati sits atop the Big East at 9-0, including 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in conference action. The Bearcats rallied to beat Connecticut on Saturday, winning 47-45 but failing as 16½-piont home favorites. Backup QB Zach Collaros will be making his fourth straight start for the injured Tony Pike, who has recovered from a broken non-throwing forearm and is also expected to see some action tonight.
Cincinnati’s offense is third in the nation at 482.6 yards per game and fifth at 40 points per game and has excelled with either QB under center. Pike threw 15 TDs and just three INTs in six starts this season while Collaros has added a running dimension to the position. In Saturday’s win over the Huskies, Collaros racked up 480 passing yards, 75 rushing yards and three TDs, helping the Bearcats to a school-record 711 total yards. However, the stout Cincinnati defense yielded a season-high in points – more than they had given up in the previous three games combined – and let UConn rush for 201 yards and four scores.
The Mountaineers sit in third place in the Big East at 3-1 (1-3 ATS) against conference foes. West Virginia is coming off a 17-9 home win over Louisville on Saturday, coming up well short as a 17½-point favorite. Star RB Noel Devine, second in the Big East with 1,007 rushing yards, injured his ankle in the victory but is expected to suit up tonight. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 24 points or less in five of their last six games, but in their two toughest road games (at South Florida and at Auburn), they yielded season-highs of 30 and 41 points.
The road team, and underdog, has won five of the last six meetings (4-1-1 ATS) between these two, including Cincinnati’s 26-23 win in West Virginia last year, cashing as a seven-point ‘dog. Prior to last year, the Mountaineers had won three straight and eight of nine in this rivalry, but they’re 1-3-1 ATS in the last five series clashes. West Virginia has won seven in a row in Cincinnati and was the last visiting team to win at Nippert Stadium, as it went there as the nation’s fifth-ranked team in November 2007 and scored a 28-23 victory over the 21st-ranked Bearcats, but failed to cover as a 5½-point road favorite. Since that game, Cincy has won 11 consecutive home games.
West Virginia has failed to cash in four straight games and is on additional ATS slides of 6-14 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-5 in Big East games, 1-4 on Fridays and 0-4 against teams with winning records. The Bearcats are on ATS streaks of 8-2 in conference action, 6-2-1 in November games, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-1 at home against opponents with winning road records.
The Mountaineers are on “over” runs of 17-6 in November, 5-2 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against teams with winning records. Conversely, Cincinnati is on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 10-4 at home, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-1 in November games. Finally, the last two meetings between these teams at Nippert Stadium stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Temple (7-2, 6-2 ATS) at Akron (2-7, 3-5 ATS)
The Owls head to the Rubber Bowl for a Mid-American Conference showdown with Akron, looking to maintain their slim lead in the MAC’s East Division with their eighth straight victory.
Temple saw its division lead dip to one-half game when second-place Ohio went to Buffalo on Tuesday and scored a three-point win. The Owls have won seven in a row (5-2 ATS), but the last two were nail-biters, as they got a field goal with three seconds left last Thursday to edge Miami (Ohio) 34-32, but failing to cover as 17-point favorites, after getting past Navy 27-24 on Oct. 31 as a 6½-point road ‘dog. Temple has scored 24 points or more in each of their seven straight wins, but the defense has yielded 24, 24 and 32 points in the last three after surrendering an average of 14.3 ppg in the previous four.
The Owls are averaging 27 ppg this season, despite managing just 319.2 yards per contest. They do rush the ball for 168.9 ypg, and they’ve won the rushing battle in six of their last seven contests.
Akron snapped a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) with Saturday’s 28-20 win over Kent State, cashing as a four-point home ‘dog. QB play has been shaky for the Zips with the trio of Patrick Nicely, Matt Rodgers and Chris Jacquemain combing to throw eight TDs and 10 INTs. The Zips manage just 18.4 point, 291.6 total yards and 105 rushing yards a game while allowing 25.8 points, 357.2 yards and 166.3 rushing yards per contest.
Temple has won each of the last two (2-0 ATS) against Akron, including last year’s 27-6 home win as a 2½-point favorite. The last time they were in Akron in 2007, the Owls got a 24-20 victory as 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, the Zips had won six straight in this rivalry – five by double digits – going 5-1 ATS. The SU winner has covered in each of the last 10 meetings dating to 1987.
The Owls are on positive ATS streaks of 14-5 overall (7-2 last nine), 4-0 on the road this year, 17-7-1 in MAC games, 7-2 overall, 6-2 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on Fridays. Akron is 19-8-2 ATS in its last 29 as a home underdog, but the Zips are on a plethora of negative ATS runs, including 3-9 overall (2-5 last seven), 2-6 in MAC games, 1-5 against teams with winning records and 0-3-1 on Fridays.
Temple is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 in November, but it has stayed below the total in eight of 10 after an ATS loss, 13 of 19 conference games and nine of 13 against losing teams. Akron has stayed below the posted number in four of five overall, but it is on “over” streaks of 10-4 in MAC play, 8-3 at home, 9-2 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 in November and 3-0 after a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Atlanta (6-2, 7-1 ATS) at Boston (8-1, 5-4 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference square off at Banknorth Garden, where the Celtics and Hawks both shoot for their third straight victories.
Atlanta destroyed Denver 125-100 as a three-point home favorite on Saturday, then took three days off before traveling to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday and pounding the Knicks 114-101 as a five-point road chalk. Atlanta has scored in triple digits in six of its eight games, but it has also allowed 100 or more in four straight and six of eight. The Hawks are 2-2 on the road (3-1 ATS).
Boston rebounded from its first defeat of the season – last Friday’s 110-103 loss to Phoenix as a 10 ½-point home favorite – with consecutive double-digit wins over New Jersey (86-76 on Saturday) and Utah (105-86 on Wednesday). In the rout of the Jazz, the Celtics covered as an 11-point home favorite, snapping a three-game ATS drought. Phoenix is the only team this season to score more than 90 points against Boston, which has held its other eight opponents to an average of 81.4 ppg.
The Hawks took Boston to seven games in a 2008 Eastern Conference opening-round playoff series, eventually losing Game 7 99-65 as a 14½-point underdog. Then last year, the Celtics swept a four-game series from Atlanta, going 2-2 ATS. Each team went 1-1 SU and ATS at home. The host is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings (playoffs included), with Atlanta going just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Beantown.
The Hawks are on ATS runs of 4-1 on the road since the end of last year and 3-1-1 when playing on one day of rest, but they’ve failed to cover in five of six on Friday and eight of 11 against the Atlantic Division. Boston is on pointspread surges of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 on Friday.
Atlanta has topped the total in four straight overall, five of six on the road and five of six against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are on “over” runs of 28-11-1 at home and 6-0 on Friday, but otherwise they’re on “under” stretches of 9-4 overall, 7-2 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0 when facing Southeast Division opponents. Finally, seven of the last nine in this rivalry have gone over the total, but the under is 9-4 in the past 13 clashes in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
L.A. Lakers (7-1, 3-5 ATS) at Denver (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Nuggets finally return home to the Pepsi Center after a grueling six-game, nine-day Eastern Conference road trip, and awaiting them will be the defending-champion Lakers, who ended Denver’s 2008-09 season in the Western Conference finals.
Los Angeles returned from a three-day layoff on Thursday and dominated Phoenix 121-102 as an eight-point home favorite. The Lakers have won six in a row, and after starting the season with five consecutive ATS defeats, they’ve covered in three straight games. In its only two road games to this point, Phil Jackson’s squad needed overtime to dispatch of Oklahoma City (101-98) and Houston (103-102), failing to cover in both contests.
Denver started the season 5-0 (4-1 ATS), including two blowout wins at Indiana (111-93) and New Jersey (122-94) to start its recent road trip. From there, though, the Nuggets ran out of gas, losing three of their final four on their journey while going 0-4 ATS. The trip ended with Tuesday’s 108-102 loss at Milwaukee as a 3½-point road chalk. After averaging 115.4 ppg in its first five games, George Karl’s club netted just 95 ppg in the last four.
After sweeping Denver out of the first round of the playoffs in 2007, the Lakers needed six games to dispose of the Nuggets in last year’s conference finals, winning the final two by scores of 103-94 as a six-point home favorite and 119-92 as a 5½-point road ‘dog. Los Angeles also won three of four regular-season meetings (2-2 ATS), and it is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 battles with Denver.
The Lakers have cashed in six of their last eight on Friday, while Denver’s current 0-4 ATS downfall is offset by positive pointspread surges of 9-3 at home, 23-7 versus Western Conference opponents, 11-5 against the Pacific Division and 12-5 when playing after one day of rest.
The over is 5-1 in L.A.’s last five overall, 4-1 in its last five on Friday, 5-2 in its last seven on the road, 9-3 in its last 12 when playing on back-to-back nights and 4-0 in Denver’s last four at home. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 7-3 for the Lakers against the Northwest Division, 9-4 for the Lakers against winning teams, 10-3 for the Nuggets against winning teams, 5-2 for the Nuggets against Pacific Division foes, 10-3 in this rivalry (playoffs included) and 6-2 when these teams meet at the Pepsi Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER