Service Plays Friday 11/13/09

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DUNKEL NBA

Atlanta at Boston

The Celtics look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 701-702: Utah at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.629; Philadelphia 114.940
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-1); Over

Game 703-704: New Jersey at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 108.931; Orlando 129.670
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 20 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 15 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-15 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: Golden State at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.536; New York 112.561
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 227
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 224 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Portland at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.972; New Orleans 120.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2; 190
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2); Under

Game 709-710: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 125.245; Minnesota 109.081
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 16 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 11; 196
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-11); Over

Game 711-712: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.238; Boston 130.994
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 8 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-8 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Houston at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 124.240; Sacramento 112.652
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 11 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4; 210
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Over

Game 715-716: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.545; Denver 124.087
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 3; 212
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3); Under

Game 717-718: Toronto at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 115.819; LA Clippers 117.564
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+3); Under
 
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DUNKEL NHL

NY Islanders at Carolina

The Islanders look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 0-9 in its last 9 games versus the Atlantic Division. New York is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1./2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 51-52: Anaheim at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.467; Columbus 11.686
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-120); Under

Game 53-54: Minnesota at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.792; Washington 12.354
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.719; Carolina 10.323
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110); Over

Game 57-58: Calgary at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.668; Buffalo 11.415
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+130); Under

Game 59-60: Los Angeles at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.117; Atlanta 11.321
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 61-62: Toronto at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.667; Chicago 11.557
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+180); Over
 
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DCI
Season
ATS: 74-48 (.607)


ORLANDO 103, New Jersey 88
PHILADELPHIA 101, Utah 98
NEW YORK 119, Golden State 115
BOSTON 99, Atlanta 90
Dallas 105, MINNESOTA 97
Portland 95, NEW ORLEANS 90
Houston 107, SACRAMENTO 98
L.A. Lakers vs. DENVER: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Toronto 103, L.A. CLIPPERS 99
 
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DCI
Season: 90-64 (.584)

WASHINGTON 4, Minnesota 3
N.Y. Islanders vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLUMBUS 4, Anaheim 3
Calgary vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATLANTA 4, Los Angeles 3
CHICAGO 4, Toronto 2
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with South Florida (-1) Thursday night.

Today it's the Jazz. The surplus is 615 sirignanos.


0-2 last night in football
82-99-1 in college
3-7-1 in best bets (SFla)

added play
Cincinnati -9
 
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NBA WRITE-UP

Friday, November 13

Hot Teams
-- Magic won three of four home games (2-2 as home favorite).
-- Hawks won six of their first eight games. Celtics won eight of their first nine contests.
-- Blazers won, covered their last four games.
-- Mavericks won five of their last seven games.
-- Kings won four of their last five games. Rockets won five of last seven games, are 7-1 vs spread this season.
-- Lakers won their last six games (4-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Nets are 0-8, but they did cover their last three games.
-- 76ers are 0-5 vs spread in last five games (2-3 SU).
-- Knicks lost their last five games (1-4 vs spread). Warriors lost five of their first seven games.
-- Jazz lost four of last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Hornets lost five of last seven games, firing the coach after last game.
-- Minnesota lost last eight games (0-4 vs spread last four); Jefferson is out due to family illness.
-- Nuggets lost three of last four games, all on the road (2-0 at home).
-- Raptors are 3-4 in last seven games; they're 0-4 if they allow 100+ points, 4-0 if they allow less. Clippers lost their last two games, scoring 81.5 ppg.

Totals
-- All four Orlando home games went over the total.
-- Six of nine Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five New York games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Portland games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Sacramento's last six games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Lakers' last six games.
-- Five of first seven Toronto games went over the total; under is 4-1-1 in last six Clipper games.
 
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NHL WRITE-UP

Friday, November 13

Hot Teams
-- Minnesota won four of last six games. Washington won its last three games, scoring 16 goals.
-- Sabres won six of last eight home games. Flames won last four games, allowing total of four goals.
-- Thrashers won four of last six games. Kings won four of last six road games.
-- Blackhawks won their last five home games.

Cold Teams
-- Carolina lost its last 13 games, scoring two or less goals in last eight. Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jackets lost three of last four home games. Ducks lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Maple Leafs are 3-13 so far this season.

Totals
-- Three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Six of last nine Anaheim games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Buffalo games, last six Calgary games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Chicago games stayed under the total.

Series Records
-- Carolina won four of last five games against the Islanders.
-- Minnesota won last two games vs Washington, 3-2/4-3.
-- Ducks won six of last eight games against Columbus.
-- Chicago won last two games against Toronto, 3-1/5-4ot.
 
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NHL ADDITIONAL

Friday, November 13

Trend Report

7:00 PM
ANAHEIM vs. COLUMBUS
Anaheim is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Columbus
Anaheim is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Columbus is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim

7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. WASHINGTON
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Washington
Washington is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games

7:00 PM
NY ISLANDERS vs. CAROLINA
NY Islanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Islanders last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
CALGARY vs. BUFFALO
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Buffalo is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Calgary

7:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ATLANTA
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Los Angeles's last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CHICAGO
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Toronto is 10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
 
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Wunderdog Horse Selections

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #1 at 12:40 PM Eastern

Top pick: #1 (CHAPEL AFFAIR) - Filly by "Chapel Royal" takes a big drop this afternoon for a top outfit (Ken McPeek). Connections have been trying to find the level where she can pick-up her maiden win, and this looks like it. Stalker can win this with a clean break from the tricky rail post at this flat mile.​
<!--p-->
2nd pick: #8 (Pata Fresca) - One of two entered here by trainer Helen Pitts and they'll race as separate interests. She's finished on the board in all three of her outings including a pair at this eight-furlong trip. Pace here looks a bit quick for the claiming level and that helps this filly's style out.​
3rd pick: #3 (Ask Don't Tell) - The second of the Pitt's trained fillies appears to be the main-speed. If allowed to clear off early she could prove very tough to catch, as speed has done well here at this distance early in the meet.​
4th pick: #6 (How Regal) - Competitive in many of her 15 starts, it's obvious that at this stage that she's not going to improve much, so what you see is what you get. Has enough ability and experience in a weak field to get a piece of this.​
 

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charlie
ncaaf & nba. west vs @ cincy over 55, temple @ akron over 44' & nba. sacramento+4. (500* 3 TEAM TRIPLE PLAY)
ncaaf. west va+9' (30*)
ncaaf. temple-4' (20*)
nba. nets+15' (20*)
nba. knicks-1 (10*)
nba. hawks+8 (10*) Bonus Play
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

West Virginia (7-2, 2-6 ATS) at (5) Cincinnati (9-0, 5-3 ATS)

The Bearcats will be shooting for their first 10-0 start in school history when they welcome the Mountaineers to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati for a Big East matchup between two of the top three teams in the conference.

Cincinnati sits atop the Big East at 9-0, including 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in conference action. The Bearcats rallied to beat Connecticut on Saturday, winning 47-45 but failing as 16½-piont home favorites. Backup QB Zach Collaros will be making his fourth straight start for the injured Tony Pike, who has recovered from a broken non-throwing forearm and is also expected to see some action tonight.

Cincinnati’s offense is third in the nation at 482.6 yards per game and fifth at 40 points per game and has excelled with either QB under center. Pike threw 15 TDs and just three INTs in six starts this season while Collaros has added a running dimension to the position. In Saturday’s win over the Huskies, Collaros racked up 480 passing yards, 75 rushing yards and three TDs, helping the Bearcats to a school-record 711 total yards. However, the stout Cincinnati defense yielded a season-high in points – more than they had given up in the previous three games combined – and let UConn rush for 201 yards and four scores.

The Mountaineers sit in third place in the Big East at 3-1 (1-3 ATS) against conference foes. West Virginia is coming off a 17-9 home win over Louisville on Saturday, coming up well short as a 17½-point favorite. Star RB Noel Devine, second in the Big East with 1,007 rushing yards, injured his ankle in the victory but is expected to suit up tonight. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 24 points or less in five of their last six games, but in their two toughest road games (at South Florida and at Auburn), they yielded season-highs of 30 and 41 points.

The road team, and underdog, has won five of the last six meetings (4-1-1 ATS) between these two, including Cincinnati’s 26-23 win in West Virginia last year, cashing as a seven-point ‘dog. Prior to last year, the Mountaineers had won three straight and eight of nine in this rivalry, but they’re 1-3-1 ATS in the last five series clashes. West Virginia has won seven in a row in Cincinnati and was the last visiting team to win at Nippert Stadium, as it went there as the nation’s fifth-ranked team in November 2007 and scored a 28-23 victory over the 21st-ranked Bearcats, but failed to cover as a 5½-point road favorite. Since that game, Cincy has won 11 consecutive home games.

West Virginia has failed to cash in four straight games and is on additional ATS slides of 6-14 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-5 in Big East games, 1-4 on Fridays and 0-4 against teams with winning records. The Bearcats are on ATS streaks of 8-2 in conference action, 6-2-1 in November games, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-1 at home against opponents with winning road records.

The Mountaineers are on “over” runs of 17-6 in November, 5-2 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against teams with winning records. Conversely, Cincinnati is on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 10-4 at home, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-1 in November games. Finally, the last two meetings between these teams at Nippert Stadium stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI


Temple (7-2, 6-2 ATS) at Akron (2-7, 3-5 ATS)

The Owls head to the Rubber Bowl for a Mid-American Conference showdown with Akron, looking to maintain their slim lead in the MAC’s East Division with their eighth straight victory.

Temple saw its division lead dip to one-half game when second-place Ohio went to Buffalo on Tuesday and scored a three-point win. The Owls have won seven in a row (5-2 ATS), but the last two were nail-biters, as they got a field goal with three seconds left last Thursday to edge Miami (Ohio) 34-32, but failing to cover as 17-point favorites, after getting past Navy 27-24 on Oct. 31 as a 6½-point road ‘dog. Temple has scored 24 points or more in each of their seven straight wins, but the defense has yielded 24, 24 and 32 points in the last three after surrendering an average of 14.3 ppg in the previous four.

The Owls are averaging 27 ppg this season, despite managing just 319.2 yards per contest. They do rush the ball for 168.9 ypg, and they’ve won the rushing battle in six of their last seven contests.

Akron snapped a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) with Saturday’s 28-20 win over Kent State, cashing as a four-point home ‘dog. QB play has been shaky for the Zips with the trio of Patrick Nicely, Matt Rodgers and Chris Jacquemain combing to throw eight TDs and 10 INTs. The Zips manage just 18.4 point, 291.6 total yards and 105 rushing yards a game while allowing 25.8 points, 357.2 yards and 166.3 rushing yards per contest.

Temple has won each of the last two (2-0 ATS) against Akron, including last year’s 27-6 home win as a 2½-point favorite. The last time they were in Akron in 2007, the Owls got a 24-20 victory as 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, the Zips had won six straight in this rivalry – five by double digits – going 5-1 ATS. The SU winner has covered in each of the last 10 meetings dating to 1987.

The Owls are on positive ATS streaks of 14-5 overall (7-2 last nine), 4-0 on the road this year, 17-7-1 in MAC games, 7-2 overall, 6-2 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on Fridays. Akron is 19-8-2 ATS in its last 29 as a home underdog, but the Zips are on a plethora of negative ATS runs, including 3-9 overall (2-5 last seven), 2-6 in MAC games, 1-5 against teams with winning records and 0-3-1 on Fridays.

Temple is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 in November, but it has stayed below the total in eight of 10 after an ATS loss, 13 of 19 conference games and nine of 13 against losing teams. Akron has stayed below the posted number in four of five overall, but it is on “over” streaks of 10-4 in MAC play, 8-3 at home, 9-2 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 in November and 3-0 after a straight-up win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NBA

Atlanta (6-2, 7-1 ATS) at Boston (8-1, 5-4 ATS)

Two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference square off at Banknorth Garden, where the Celtics and Hawks both shoot for their third straight victories.

Atlanta destroyed Denver 125-100 as a three-point home favorite on Saturday, then took three days off before traveling to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday and pounding the Knicks 114-101 as a five-point road chalk. Atlanta has scored in triple digits in six of its eight games, but it has also allowed 100 or more in four straight and six of eight. The Hawks are 2-2 on the road (3-1 ATS).

Boston rebounded from its first defeat of the season – last Friday’s 110-103 loss to Phoenix as a 10 ½-point home favorite – with consecutive double-digit wins over New Jersey (86-76 on Saturday) and Utah (105-86 on Wednesday). In the rout of the Jazz, the Celtics covered as an 11-point home favorite, snapping a three-game ATS drought. Phoenix is the only team this season to score more than 90 points against Boston, which has held its other eight opponents to an average of 81.4 ppg.

The Hawks took Boston to seven games in a 2008 Eastern Conference opening-round playoff series, eventually losing Game 7 99-65 as a 14½-point underdog. Then last year, the Celtics swept a four-game series from Atlanta, going 2-2 ATS. Each team went 1-1 SU and ATS at home. The host is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings (playoffs included), with Atlanta going just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Beantown.

The Hawks are on ATS runs of 4-1 on the road since the end of last year and 3-1-1 when playing on one day of rest, but they’ve failed to cover in five of six on Friday and eight of 11 against the Atlantic Division. Boston is on pointspread surges of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 on Friday.

Atlanta has topped the total in four straight overall, five of six on the road and five of six against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are on “over” runs of 28-11-1 at home and 6-0 on Friday, but otherwise they’re on “under” stretches of 9-4 overall, 7-2 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0 when facing Southeast Division opponents. Finally, seven of the last nine in this rivalry have gone over the total, but the under is 9-4 in the past 13 clashes in Boston.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


L.A. Lakers (7-1, 3-5 ATS) at Denver (6-3, 4-5 ATS)

The Nuggets finally return home to the Pepsi Center after a grueling six-game, nine-day Eastern Conference road trip, and awaiting them will be the defending-champion Lakers, who ended Denver’s 2008-09 season in the Western Conference finals.

Los Angeles returned from a three-day layoff on Thursday and dominated Phoenix 121-102 as an eight-point home favorite. The Lakers have won six in a row, and after starting the season with five consecutive ATS defeats, they’ve covered in three straight games. In its only two road games to this point, Phil Jackson’s squad needed overtime to dispatch of Oklahoma City (101-98) and Houston (103-102), failing to cover in both contests.

Denver started the season 5-0 (4-1 ATS), including two blowout wins at Indiana (111-93) and New Jersey (122-94) to start its recent road trip. From there, though, the Nuggets ran out of gas, losing three of their final four on their journey while going 0-4 ATS. The trip ended with Tuesday’s 108-102 loss at Milwaukee as a 3½-point road chalk. After averaging 115.4 ppg in its first five games, George Karl’s club netted just 95 ppg in the last four.

After sweeping Denver out of the first round of the playoffs in 2007, the Lakers needed six games to dispose of the Nuggets in last year’s conference finals, winning the final two by scores of 103-94 as a six-point home favorite and 119-92 as a 5½-point road ‘dog. Los Angeles also won three of four regular-season meetings (2-2 ATS), and it is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 battles with Denver.

The Lakers have cashed in six of their last eight on Friday, while Denver’s current 0-4 ATS downfall is offset by positive pointspread surges of 9-3 at home, 23-7 versus Western Conference opponents, 11-5 against the Pacific Division and 12-5 when playing after one day of rest.

The over is 5-1 in L.A.’s last five overall, 4-1 in its last five on Friday, 5-2 in its last seven on the road, 9-3 in its last 12 when playing on back-to-back nights and 4-0 in Denver’s last four at home. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 7-3 for the Lakers against the Northwest Division, 9-4 for the Lakers against winning teams, 10-3 for the Nuggets against winning teams, 5-2 for the Nuggets against Pacific Division foes, 10-3 in this rivalry (playoffs included) and 6-2 when these teams meet at the Pepsi Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
 

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Friday’s Comp Play (another FREE winner last night with the Under in the NFL game)

NBA

Utah, dominant over the Sixers over the last handful of years, invade Philly looking to get on track in 2009. The Sixers are coming off a win against a blatantly awful Nets team. Keep in mind, the 76ers won 3 of their 4 games against either the Knicks or the Nets, who have combined for (1) win between them.
Meanwhile, the UtahJazz are not as bad as they appear, having shown signs of life in their last few. The key to this will be if the Sixers can defend Deron Williams. Any insider in Philly will tell
you that they cannot. Look for a blowout here for Utah.

Take Utah (-1) in the Utah at Philadelphia game
 
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