Service Plays Friday 11/06/09

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Marc Lawrence

Friday, November 6

Boise St over LA TECH by 14

The Broncos are actually looking up at WAC-leading Nevada but it’s the BCS
Standings that matter most right now in Boise. Papa Smurf (Chris) Petersen
still has his horses thinking about crashing another BCS party with their
unblemished record but his week’s computer crunching has seen BSU slide all
the way down to #7 in the Big Boy rankings. A word of caution here: Boise is
playing its fifth game on the road in seven weeks and OUR computers tell us
that 8-0 or better road favorites are just 42-65-3 ATS against .300 or greater
opposition. Louisiana Tech, 3-1 ATS in the last four series games, is 4-1 ATS as
double-digit home dog and 6-3 ATS on weekdays. Like playing with fi re? The
Techsters supply the spark.
 

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -8.5

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I had Chicago last night, but for a number of different reasons I believe Cleveland will "bounce back" and that the value in this game is on the Cavaliers:

Just like Michael Jordan, Lebron loves playing in New York and this will be his only trip to Madison Square Garden this season.

“He’ll be glowing. He’ll be ready,” said New York guard Larry Hughes, a former Cleveland teammate who keeps in touch with James. “He may not say he’s ready, but he’ll be ready to perform.”

James can become a free agent on July 1 and the Knicks have cleared enough cap space to offer him a maximum salary contract. He’s never said he wants to leave Cleveland, but he’s never ruled out coming to New York, either, so his future will be hotly debated until then - especially tonight!

On the other side of the court: In their last game, the Knicks' offense sputtered in the second half and managed just 15 points in the final 15 minutes of the game, including six straight empty possessions late in the fourth quarter as they lost 101-89 vs. the Pacers.

G Nate Robinson remains out with a sprained right ankle and C Eddy Curry remains on a team-ordered conditioning stint following a calf injury in training camp.

New York is already a poor 1-3 ATS this season when playing the roll of underdog.

Bottom line: Cleveland has been alternating good and poor efforts and I expect that trend to continue this evening; when you couple that with the rest of the above factors, the sharp money in this matchup is on the CAVALIERS! *8*
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Marc Lawrence

PHOENIX SUNS +10

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Suns meet the Celtics in Beantown Friday night knowing they are 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in games off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, Boston is 4-9 SU and ATS in this series when Phoenix is off a loss, including 1-5 SU and ATS when the Celtics are off a win. Grab the points in this upset maker here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.[/FONT]
 

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WINNING POINTS

Boise State over Louisiana Tech* by 24 (Friday)

Style points absolutely matter for the Broncos, who have to take full advantage
when the national cameras are positioned on the sidelines, and the Bulldogs do not
have the quality or depth at WR to challenge this quality of defense. BOISE
STATE 37-13.
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statfox

BOISE STATE AT LOUISIANA TECH

Key Game Trends: BOISE ST is 55-16 ATS in the second half of the season since 1992....BOISE ST is 8-0 ATS after playing a conference game over the L2 seasons....BOISE ST is 45-13 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games since 1992....BOISE ST is 29-8 ATS in November games since 1992....BOISE ST is 8-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the L2 seasons....BOISE ST is 28-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Game Breakdown: This is the first of three games Boise State has on prime time Friday’s to convince BCS voters they deserve to move back up in the standings. The Broncos backers could almost be accused of peculation with Boise’s 35-18 ATS record as WAC favorites of 10 points or more. This is Louisiana Tech’s only home game in five week period and the Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season and 9-1 (6-2 ATS) since last facing Boise State on own turf. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under coach Derek Dooley and 4-1 ATS hosting Boise State. However, since 2002, Louisiana Tech is 4-15 ATS versus ranked squads.

StatFox Forecaster: BOISE ST 31, LOUISIANA TECH 19
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Lenny Del Genio

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -12

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We played against the Nets, who are making a case to be the NBA's worst team, Wednesday night and they no-showed as expected, losing by 29 at home to Denver. We suppose you can't really blame them as F Battie, F Yi, and PG Harris were all out. Even with those players, this was projected to be a last place team. Now you can add F Chris Douglas-Roberts (ill) to the list of the walking wounded, meaning that the new Russian billionare that bought the team may be calling Derrick Coleman and Kerry Kittles any time now (kidding). Philadelphia is off an atrocious loss to Boston, 105-74, so look for them to tee off against a division foe on the other side of the ledger. What better time to reverse a trend that has seen New Jersey cover 17 of the previous 22 meetings here in the City of Brotherly Love? The Nets are just 2-12 ATS as double-digit dogs the previous three seasons. Philadelphia is our 15* Division Game of the Week. [/FONT]
 

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Dwayne Bryant

WASHINGTON WIZARDS +1.5

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I love this situation. Washington is in off a four-point home loss as two-point chalk against Miami. They shot just 37.8% in that game. The night before, the Wizards lost at Cleveland in what has been a very intense rivalry in recent years. Washington shot under 40% from the field for the second straight game after hitting 50.6% in its first three contests. It was to be expected that Washington would struggle with Miami the night after that emotional battle with arch-rival Cleveland. Washington had yesterday off to regroup and I expect a return to form in a highly motivated effort tonight. Indiana is off a 12-point upset road win at New York. They covered the spread by 16.5 points in what was their first win of the season. The Wizards will be the hungrier team tonight and they own edges in almost every statistical category, including offensive FG%, defensive FG%, 3-point % (HUGE edge here), and rebound margin. I'll take the Wizards as my Eastern Conference Game of the Week.[/FONT]
 

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Hentai Sports

Game : Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat (NBA) 07:35pm EST

Prediction : Denver Nuggets -1

Analysis : The Nuggets qualify in a solid system tonight that plays on road teams who scored 120 or more points as a road favorite of -5 or more, with 1 or more days rest between -3 to +3. These road teams are 7-1 since 1995 winning by a comfortable margin. Denver is 11-4 straight up and ats on the road in this range. Miami is 0-4 vs the Nuggets of late and will get beat here tonight. On Friday we have another big system card up. On Saturday I have the 2009 College football Game of the Year from 4 different systems,including one that is 24-1 since 1980.
 

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Evan Altemus

DENVER NUGGETS -1

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver is not getting enough from the betting public this season. The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the league, yet people have not realized this. As a result, I feel there is good value in this game. Miami doesn’t have an overwhelming home court advantage either, and there should be plenty of empty seats to start this game. Denver has shown the ability to play well on the road, including two straight wins and covers on their recent road trip. The Nuggets are well rested and should have enough motivation to stay undefeated this year.

3 UNIT SELECTION DENVER.
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Canadian Bacon

Friday, November 6

Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-4, 54)

The Eskimos and the Lions will possibly battle for the last available playoff spot. Only a Blue Bombers loss to the Tiger Cats could prevent one of these western teams from starting their vacations Monday and allow them to come back next week as crossovers in the East semifinals. B.C. has not missed the playoffs in the last 12 years. The Lions won their two games against the Eskimos earlier this season by scores of 40-22 and 34-31. Geroy Simon and Paris Jackson gained at least 100 yards each time they played the Eskimos this season.

This time, the Esks will face the new protégé of coach Wally Buono, QB Casey Printers who gained 676 yards on 41 completed passes with two touchdowns in his last two games. The Eskimos are dead last in the CFL when it comes to stop the pass, having conceded 5016 yards through the air in 17 games. Also take note that the Eskimos won only two of their last six games and these wins were obtained against the mediocre Argonauts. They will be without wide receiver Maurice Mann, who suffered a leg injury and will probably be without kick returner Tristan Jackson, who has the flu. Like if it was not enough to make the scale tip in favour of the Lions, RB Martell Mallett and safety Barron Miles will be back in B.C.’s lineup.

Pick: B.C. -4



Saturday, November 7

Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts (+9.5, 48)

Excluded from the playoff picture, the Argonauts are already preparing for 2010. So nobody will be surprised that they will take this opportunity to start with rookie QB Stephen Reaves. He can’t really do worse against the Als than Kerry Joseph or Cody Pickett. On the other side, the Alouettes, who secured first place and the privilege of hosting the East Finals, will try to write a new chapter in the history of the franchise by finishing the regular season with a 15-3 record. Ironically, that would also be the first time a CFL team can boast such a record since the 1997 Toronto Argonauts coached by Don Matthews.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo will start as will most of the usual Alouettes starters. Safety Matthieu Proulx, who suffered a fracture to his left hand, won’t make the trip to Toronto. This being said, head coach Marc Trestman held a practice for only the backup players and made no secret that he would like to play everyone against the Argos. The Alouettes lineup might become unrecognizable in the second half but that doesn’t matter because there’s a good chance that even the Als’ B-squad can shut down the pathetic Argos offence.

Pick: Montreal -9.5


Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-1.5, 55)

This will certainly be the most exciting game of this last weekend of the regular season. This game will decide who finishes first and earns a week off before hosting the West Final November 22. For the Roughriders, a division championship would be a first in thirty three years. The Riders and Stampeders met twice this season and in both occasions, it has been extremely close. Saskatchewan won the first one by 24-23 and then on October 17, these two teams took a 44-44 draw in OT.

But last week in Hamilton, the Roughriders didn’t look like a potential champion. They conceded 196 rushing yards, 159 alone to DeAndra’ Cobb and QB Darian Durant completed only eight of the 20 passes for a meagre 66 yards, no touchdown and one pick. If the Riders defense can’t do better stopping the run, imagine the kind of field day the best RB in the country, Joffrey Reynolds, will have. There’s a possibility that the Roughriders will come up stronger and make people forget an awful performance, especially in front of their home fans. But that may not be enough against a more talented Stampeders team that is playing with the consciousness that each win brings them closer to their main goal - to defend their Grey Cup title at home.

Pick: Calgary +1.5



Sunday, November 8

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1.5, 50)

The last time these two teams faced each other the Bombers pounded the Tiger Cats on Thanksgiving. But things have changed since that day. The Tiger Cats are coming to Winnipeg with renewed confidence after a surprising 24-6 win against the Saskatchewan Roughriders last week. It’s quite the opposite for Winnipeg, which after inflicting a huge loss to the Alouettes, got whipped in return in Montreal last Sunday. Blue Bombers quarterback Michael Bishop demonstrated that as much is he capable of great performances, he is also capable of the worst.

His opponent, QB Kevin Glenn, has been gifted with the luxury of an offensive line that didn’t allow a single sack over the last three weeks, giving him the time to tally 233 passing yards against the Riders. The same offensive line creates openings for the running game and DeAndra’ Cobb makes the most of the opportunities, averaging almost six yards per carry. It should be interesting to see how the front seven of the Bombers will get to a Kevin Glenn, who will be motivated against the team that got rid of him. Also consider the Tiger Cats players will be fully aware that a victory in this game would lead to an East Division semifinal in Hamilton, something their city has not seen in 10 years.

Pick: Hamilton +1.5
 

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B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* Cavs/Knicks E SP N G AM E OF T HE W EE K on New York +8.5(-105 spbook)

The Cavs are clearly overrated to start the season, sitting at 3-3 thus far. They have been favored in every game. This is an inflated line Friday night as Cleveland travels to face the Knicks. New York is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The last 2 meetings were decided by 5 points, with Cleveland coming out ahead both times. We feel the Knicks say enough is enough here tonight and likely pull off the upset. The Cavs just played last night, while New York has had a day to rest so they will be the fresher team which is also an advantage. Take the Knicks and the points.
 

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B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Denver Nuggets +1(-106 at 5dimes)

Denver is making a statement in the early going that they are here to stay after reaching the Western Conference Semis last season. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and they aren't going to lose to a middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference team in Miami tonight. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Denver is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Miami. Take Denver and lay the points.



B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Atlanta Hawks -2(-105 at 5dimes)

The Hawks are a team from the East that is going to make some noise before season's end. They have a complete team that can do it all, with great guard play behind Bibby and Johnson and excellent post play in Horford and Smith. The Hawks have opened the season 4-1 with big road wins over the Blazers and Kings already. Their only loss was to the defending champion Lakers in a hard-fought 8-point road loss. Charlotte doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hawks in this one. Atlanta averages 108.0 points/game while Charlotte puts up just 79.8 points/game this year. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
 

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GoodFella

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -3

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We got a nice winner going against the Spurs last night, as the Jazz were VERY motivated for a win, and we got a MAXIMUM effort out of them just like I thought we would, and they cruised to a easy win. I expect the exact same kind of MAXIMUM effort out of the Blazers tonight, as Portland REALLY NEEDS this HOME WIN tonight. Portland has already lost TWO home games & they have had three days off to prepare for the Spurs, who are playing in a back 2 back spot tonight, and they have not faired very well in this spot the last couple years. The Rose Garden will be VERY LOUD and pumped for this game on ESPN tonight & I look for a HUGE game out of Roy and company tonight, as they should control the glass vs a smaller Spurs team, and I fully expect Portland's BEST effort of the season in this spot tonight! Take the Blazers.[/FONT]
 

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B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
3* on New Jersey Nets +12.5(-115 at sia)

The 76ers should not be favored by double-digits against any team in the league. Yes, the Nets have played poorly to start the season, but they are not 12 points worse than Philadelphia tonight. Philly is giving up 109.5 points/game through 4 games this year. Those aren't the kind of numbers that justify Philly being a 12-point favorite Friday. New Jersey is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the 76ers. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the Nets and the points
 

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B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
3* on Washington Wizards +1.5(-105 at spbook)

Off back-to-back heartbreaking losses, we look for Washington to bounce back tonight in Indiana as they take on the 1-3 Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are battling some serious injuries right now and they are far from full strength. Jeff Foster and Mike Dunleavy are out tonight, and Troy Murphy is doubtful with a back injury. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Wizards are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons. Washington is the more talented team here tonight, especially with the injuries the Pacers are facing. Take the Wizards and the points.
 

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Sebastian / Seabass

NCAAF: 20* under boise 51 (small)

Steam: Charlotte Bob cats

NBA: 50* Minnesota
50* Portland

NHL: 50* Dallas
 

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Dave M@linsky 11/6

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CHARLOTTE BOBCATS(+2) over Atlanta Hawks
4* #502 CHARLOTTE over ATLANTA

The NBA schedule maker threw an early haymaker at the Atlanta Hawks, and we believe this is the spot in which they go woozy on the ropes and have to take a standing eight count. The Hawks had to take a rare early-season Western swing this week, and it was not set up well on either end. After a home win over Washington on Friday night there was little down time before facing the Lakers in L.A. on Sunday, the start of a ?3 in 4? cycle. But instead of the usual extra day off when traveling from West to East, and also the usual assignment of a home game on the return, they are instead forced to play on the road again, something that is most rare in this league. It means tired legs and a difficult time putting a game plan together, and there is also the distraction of a home showdown vs. Denver tomorrow night. That makes this a true danger zone for Mike Woodson and his team, and it is exacerbated by being in against an opponent that can be a trap in this setting, especially with Larry Brown having three full days to put a game plan together. As always, anything about Charlotte starts with Brown. Although the pieces on the court are not dynamic the Bobcats are playing superb fundamental basketball ? despite road games at Boston and Cleveland representing half of their schedule so far, they show up #2 on our best defensive charts through the first week of play; #2 in rebounding; and they have attempted 116 free throws, while only allowing their opponents to get to the line 69 times. And most of this has been working short-handed. Brown finally got Raja Bell back on the court in Monday?s win over New Jersey, and with Flip Murray ready to go tonight it means all hands on deck for the first time. That brings an energy that the Hawks will find difficult to match, and tactic preparation that will lead to major frustrations for the visitors.
 

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GoodFella

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -3

We got a nice winner going against the Spurs last night, as the Jazz were VERY motivated for a win, and we got a MAXIMUM effort out of them just like I thought we would, and they cruised to a easy win. I expect the exact same kind of MAXIMUM effort out of the Blazers tonight, as Portland REALLY NEEDS this HOME WIN tonight. Portland has already lost TWO home games & they have had three days off to prepare for the Spurs, who are playing in a back 2 back spot tonight, and they have not faired very well in this spot the last couple years. The Rose Garden will be VERY LOUD and pumped for this game on ESPN tonight & I look for a HUGE game out of Roy and company tonight, as they should control the glass vs a smaller Spurs team, and I fully expect Portland's BEST effort of the season in this spot tonight! Take the Blazers.
 

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diceituponline - Stansfield's NCAA 11/6 and 11/7

Here is NCAA for the weekend.

11/6
10 dimes take over 50 for Boise St/La Tech

11/7
15 dimes Pitt -21
 

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Randall the Handle 11/6

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Toronto +1.09 over CAROLINA (REG) 5DIMES
The Canes are eventually going to win a game but it’s not likely to happen here. You see, without Eric Staal the Hurricanes chances of winning decrease dramatically because he’s their best player and it’s not close. His loss is worse to the Canes than OV’s is to Washington. The Canes lose a great player while the Leafs got one back last game in Phil Kessel. The Leafs record looks pathetic on paper and it is but Toronto deserves a whole lot better than what they’ve earned thus far. They’re playing hard, they’re usually outplaying the opposition by a decent margin and they’re finally starting to get a little consistency in net. Despite just one win on the year, the Leafs have picked up points in five straight games and four of those were on the road. So, for those of you that think the Leafs are bottom feeders and will remain there, think again, as they’re on the verge of something good and their hard work, determination and very underrated talent is going to start paying dividends. The Leafs recently went into Buffalo, Dallas, Anaheim and Vancouver and out-played and outskated all four of those teams and this is without question its easiest assignment of the year. Any tag against the Canes is worthy of a wager and this one is no exception. Play: Toronto +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

BUFFALO -½ +1.14 over Philadelphia Pinnacle
The Flyers are coming off two routs over Carolina and Tampa Bay in which they cruised to 6-1 and 6-2 victories. That’s nice, it really is but the Flyers are overvalued because frankly, they’re very beatable. In fact, in that 6-1 win over Carolina they ran into a shaky goaltender but were outshot 40-28. They Bolts pulled a complete no-show the next game and Mike Smith was brutal as well. Thing is, the Flyers are not going to run into bad goaltending when they take a huge step up in class in facing Ryan Miller and the Sabres. Buffalo is 9-2-1-0 and it’s no fluke. They’re tough as shoe leather and its defense is amongst the best in the business in terms of creating offense and preventing it. When the defense gets beat Miller will almost always bail them out and in order to beat the Sabres in Buffalo you pretty much have to be near flawless. Philly is just 5-5 over its last 10 games and have lost to every good team they’ve played over that stretch and you can add the Sabres to that group when this one is in the books. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
 

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