Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
40 Dime --- Boise State-Louisiana Tech OVER
15 Dime --- BLAZERS
10 Dime --- NUGGETS
BOISE STATE/LOUISIANA TECH OVER --- Is it just me or is this line extremely too low? It seems as if every weeknight college football game has a really high total, yet the game fails to reach the number and comes in easily UNDER the total. Even last night's featured college football game, ECU/Virginia Tech, was supposed to be high scoring, yet ECU couldn't find the end zone and the total was a very simple under. Tonight, however, I believe this total (currently at 50 at the time of this writing) is much too low. In my estimation, Vegas is placing way too much stock in the fact that Louisiana Tech has allowed less than 10 points per game in three home games so far this year.
But a further look inside those three home games finds blowout wins over Hawaii, New Mexico State, and FCS school Nicholls State. No wonder this team looks so dominant, defensively, at home. Louisiana Tech and defense don't really belong in the same sentence, do they? Did you see last week's game with Idaho? 35-34 final. Lowly Utah State scored 23 on them the week before, and that squad isn't one-third of the offense Boise State will bring to the table tonight. You can twist the numbers how ever you want, Louisiana Tech allows almost 400 yards per game and 24 points per contest.
Boise's offense is currently clicking on all cylinders, scoring 41 PPG, including 99 in their last two games. QB Kellen Moore is one of the best QBs in the country that no one's talking about. Moore has thrown for nearly 2000 yards, 24 TDs and an astonishing 2 INTs. But, if for some reason, Moore isn't on his game, the Broncos have three RBs who are more than capable of getting the job done (186 yards per game). With Louisiana Tech giving up just as many rushing yards per game as Boise State is gaining, the writing is on the wall.
As for L. Tech, it's not like they can't score points. The Bulldogs score 27 PPG, mostly behind the arm of QB Ross Jenkins. Though he doesn't get the attention that Kellen Moore does, Jenkins is still a solid gunslinger that has thrown 11 touchdowns vs. just 4 INTs this season, and had a picture perfect game vs. Idaho last week, throwing for 220 yards and three TDs in that 35-34 loss. The Bulldogs also did a nice job of running the football, carrying it 47 times for 222 yards and a TD, but somehow still managed to lose. How? Because they have no defense.
You take into account that Boise State scores at will, Louisiana Tech can't stop anyone, but they're more than capable of playing catchup and this game should be over the total in the 3rd quarter. Also keep in mind that these two teams have combined for 6 special teams touchdowns and I see absolutely no way this game stays under the total. Top play of they day on the OVER in tonight's college football game.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS --- I played against the Spurs last night and won with ease as San Antonio was never really in that game. Utah pretty much led by double digits throughout and cruised to their second win of the year. Meanwhile, I think I saw something in San Antonio last night that I haven't seen in a long time... a lack of toughness. Tim Duncan looked soft and was beaten up by Carlos Boozer much of the night. Manu Ginobili must still be having lingering effects of "hitting the bat" because he looks slow and very average on defense. Tony Parker is still Tony Parker, but he can't carry this team by himself. Were the Spurs possibly looking ahead to tonight's matchup? Yeah, it's possible, and that's actually what I included in my analysis. So, now they get the matchup they were looking forward too, only I don't think they really want to face Portland right now the way they're playing.
The Blazers are fresh off a three day rest since their last game and they're already 1-0 when coming in fresh. The Spurs, on the other hand, are 0-1 ATS so far when playing on back-to-back nights and they haven't covered either of their two road games to date (not to mention they've lost both road games SU). It's pretty clear to me... Vegas is still in love with the Spurs and it shows in their lines. I'm sorry, but I've seen them twice and haven't been impressed either time. They aren't the Spurs of old and when Vegas finally realizes that, the lines will surely change. Until then, we'll play against them. The Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams from the Northwest and Portland has won two straight vs. San Antonio at home. The Blazers will win this one by 8-10 points, easily giving us our cover tonight.
DENVER NUGGETS --- How can you not back the Nuggets right now? They are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now (at least offensively) and have won three straight games by double digits. Their other two wins were by nine and three points, respectively, but those wins came against Utah and Portland. The Nuggets have beaten good teams and bad teams and haven't skipped a beat, scoring well over 100 points in four of their five wins. Carmelo Anthony is off to a hot start in the scoring department, Nene is cleaning the glass and you have to love how the Nuggets are using their guard depth off the bench to keep Chauncey Billups fresh. And if you're wondering about their defense, though it's clearly not as good as Boston's, they have kept three of their five opponents under 100 points and twice limited teams to less than 40% shooting.
Meanwhile, Miami is also off to a hot start, dropping just one game in their first five. However, their wins haven't been nearly as impressive and they haven't played as tough a schedule as Denver has. So it's really not fair to compare these two teams on a even playing field yet because it's too early in the season. All I can do is take what I've seen from both teams thus far and add that to the fact that Denver has won 8 straight, yes I said 8 straight, vs. Miami by an average of nearly 10 PPG. Denver is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 overall. This one will be close for a while, but in the end the Nuggets' depth will be the difference. Play the Nuggets over the Heat.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----GL GUYS