Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Friday
14-4 L18 (Lost last night w/5* Clemson)
FRIDAY 10/10/2008
8:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1 to 6 Units)
MEMPHIS +6½ over Louisville
The Cardinals and Tigers renew their football rivalry on Friday as the 2 teams meet on the field for the first time since 2004 when the schools scored a combined 105 points and racked up over 1,200 yards in a game the Cards won 56-49.
Louisville is looking to rebound from a tough home loss in their Big East opener to Connecticut last Friday, in which the Cards’ offense amassed more than 500 yards of total offense and held the Huskies under 300 total yards.
Meanwhile, Memphis will enter the game with an offense that ranks among the best in the nation. The Tigers rank in the top 20 in the nation in passing yards and total offense.
The Cards secondary will be in for a difficult task when matching up with the Tiger’s physically intimidating crop of veteran receivers, which have an average height of six-foot six-inches. They are led by junior Carlos Singleton, who is listed at six-foot-eight. Singleton is joined by senior Maurice Jones and junior Duke Calhoun at the wideout position.
While the Tigers have been most effective in the passing game, they have maintained a balanced threat on offense with a running attack that is averaging 190 yards per game. Curtis Steele leads the team in rushing and is had his best performance of the season running for 203 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas State 2 games back.
Louisville comes in with quite a bit of baggage that is full of negative numbers. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-18.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 22+ points since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) as a non-Saturday road favorite of 3+ points since 1999, including 0-2 ATS at Memphis.
Some may think that Louisville comes in well rested, as this will be their first road game of the season; however, after 3 straight home games, teams have gotten stale and have been unprepared for the role of solid favorite in non-Saturday games against foes not coming in on a long losing streak. Specifically, from Game on, non-Saturday favorites of 4+ points with less than 19 days rest off 3 home games are 0-9 ATS vs. opponents not off 3 SU losses, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average..
Memphis looked horrible early in the season, but are now on a 3-game win streak. This fits in nicely with a handicapping strategy of ours that says to play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games. Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. These teams should be ones in which there wasn’t much expected anyway, as they’re in a rebuilding mode. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them. The Tigers have rebounded nicely in their rebuilding mode and should only get stronger as the season progresses now that they have found their identity and play makers.
After 3 victories to erase a 3-game losing skid to start the season, teams with new life have been quite strong as confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states: In Game 7, play ON a .500% team off 3 SU wins (not 3 home games) and not seeking revenge for a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss in the previous matchup last season. Since 1993, these teams are 9-0 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
Of course, Memphis qualifies as the PLAY ON team for that system as it does the following POWER SYSTEM showing that home underdogs and small favorites on a winning streak and coming off a road win, have done extremely well. It states:
In Games 5-10, play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 5 points) off a road SU win (not as a favorite of 8+ points) in its last game and a home underdog SU win before that. Since 1992, these teams are an amazing 17-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we also note that non-Saturday home underdogs have been very strong off 3 consecutive victories. This POWER SYSTEM that also qualifies the Tigers declares:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of more than 2 points off a SU win of less than 30 points in its last game and 2 SU wins before that.
These teams are a perfect 10-0 ATS all time, beating the spread by a dozen points per game on average.
Memphis has always played well in this neighborhood rivalry, as they are 9-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as an underdog vs. Louisville and not seeking revenge for a 1-point SU loss since at least 1980. We expect a hot Tigers team to again give the Cardinals all they can handle and take this game down to the wire and at least cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MEMPHIS 24 LOUISVILLE 23
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14-4 L18 (Lost last night w/5* Clemson)
FRIDAY 10/10/2008
8:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1 to 6 Units)
MEMPHIS +6½ over Louisville
The Cardinals and Tigers renew their football rivalry on Friday as the 2 teams meet on the field for the first time since 2004 when the schools scored a combined 105 points and racked up over 1,200 yards in a game the Cards won 56-49.
Louisville is looking to rebound from a tough home loss in their Big East opener to Connecticut last Friday, in which the Cards’ offense amassed more than 500 yards of total offense and held the Huskies under 300 total yards.
Meanwhile, Memphis will enter the game with an offense that ranks among the best in the nation. The Tigers rank in the top 20 in the nation in passing yards and total offense.
The Cards secondary will be in for a difficult task when matching up with the Tiger’s physically intimidating crop of veteran receivers, which have an average height of six-foot six-inches. They are led by junior Carlos Singleton, who is listed at six-foot-eight. Singleton is joined by senior Maurice Jones and junior Duke Calhoun at the wideout position.
While the Tigers have been most effective in the passing game, they have maintained a balanced threat on offense with a running attack that is averaging 190 yards per game. Curtis Steele leads the team in rushing and is had his best performance of the season running for 203 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas State 2 games back.
Louisville comes in with quite a bit of baggage that is full of negative numbers. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-18.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 22+ points since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) as a non-Saturday road favorite of 3+ points since 1999, including 0-2 ATS at Memphis.
Some may think that Louisville comes in well rested, as this will be their first road game of the season; however, after 3 straight home games, teams have gotten stale and have been unprepared for the role of solid favorite in non-Saturday games against foes not coming in on a long losing streak. Specifically, from Game on, non-Saturday favorites of 4+ points with less than 19 days rest off 3 home games are 0-9 ATS vs. opponents not off 3 SU losses, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average..
Memphis looked horrible early in the season, but are now on a 3-game win streak. This fits in nicely with a handicapping strategy of ours that says to play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games. Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. These teams should be ones in which there wasn’t much expected anyway, as they’re in a rebuilding mode. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them. The Tigers have rebounded nicely in their rebuilding mode and should only get stronger as the season progresses now that they have found their identity and play makers.
After 3 victories to erase a 3-game losing skid to start the season, teams with new life have been quite strong as confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states: In Game 7, play ON a .500% team off 3 SU wins (not 3 home games) and not seeking revenge for a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss in the previous matchup last season. Since 1993, these teams are 9-0 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
Of course, Memphis qualifies as the PLAY ON team for that system as it does the following POWER SYSTEM showing that home underdogs and small favorites on a winning streak and coming off a road win, have done extremely well. It states:
In Games 5-10, play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 5 points) off a road SU win (not as a favorite of 8+ points) in its last game and a home underdog SU win before that. Since 1992, these teams are an amazing 17-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we also note that non-Saturday home underdogs have been very strong off 3 consecutive victories. This POWER SYSTEM that also qualifies the Tigers declares:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of more than 2 points off a SU win of less than 30 points in its last game and 2 SU wins before that.
These teams are a perfect 10-0 ATS all time, beating the spread by a dozen points per game on average.
Memphis has always played well in this neighborhood rivalry, as they are 9-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as an underdog vs. Louisville and not seeking revenge for a 1-point SU loss since at least 1980. We expect a hot Tigers team to again give the Cardinals all they can handle and take this game down to the wire and at least cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MEMPHIS 24 LOUISVILLE 23
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