SPORTS ADVISORS
NLCS
L.A. Dodgers (3-1) at Philadelphia (4-1)
The Phillies, who played long ball to rally past the Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series last night, send veteran Brett Myers (11-13, 4.48) to the hill this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will look to rebound from its first postseason defeat of 2008 behind Chad Billingsley (17-10, 3.08 ERA).
Philadelphia quickly erased a 2-0 deficit in the sixth inning Thursday, getting a two-run, no-out homer from Chase Utley, followed two batters later by Pat Burrell’s solo shot, which proved to be the game-winner. The home team has now won all nine meetings between these teams this year, with the Phillies outscoring the Dodgers 30-8 in their five victories at Citizens Bank. Going back several years, the Dodgers are 8-21 in their last 29 visits to Philly.
The Dodgers are still on runs of 22-9 overall, 10-5 on the road, 10-1 in the second game of a series and 4-1 versus right-handed starters. However, Joe Torre’s troops have dropped eight straight games to N.L. East foes, including the five losses in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Phillies are on hot streaks of 20-7 overall, 21-6 at Citizens Bank Park, 22-8 versus right-handed starters, 6-0 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in Game 2 of a series.
Billingsley delivered a gem in his first career postseason start eight days ago at Wrigley Field, giving up just one run on five hits and a walk while striking out five over 6 2/3 innings en route to a 10-3 victory in Game 2 of the NLDS. Going back to the regular season, the hard-throwing right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last seven starts, and L.A. is 6-1 during this stretch.
Including the victory at Chicago, Billingsley is 7-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 17 road starts, but L.A. lost all four of his no-decisions on the highway. Also, he faced the Phillies at Citizens Bank on Aug. 25 and pitched well, giving up three runs on seven hits in six innings, but he got no offensive support in a 5-0 defeat. Including two starts in 2007, Billingsley is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA against Philadelphia.
Myers was sensational in the Phillies’ 5-2 victory over the Brewers in Game 2 back on Oct. 2, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks over seven strong innings. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 13 trips to the hill.
Myers is 8-5 with a sensational 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts this year, including that 5-0 victory over Billingsley and the Dodgers on Aug. 25 when he scattered nine hits and three walks over seven shutout innings. Myers also faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Aug. 14 and allowed three runs in seven innings, losing 3-1. For his career, he’s 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) versus the Dodgers.
The over is 5-0-1 in Billingsley’s last six outings overall, 5-1-1 in his last seven on the road and 6-2-1 in his last nine Friday outings, but the under is 2-0-1 in his three starts against the Phillies (2-0 in Philadelphia). For Myers, the under is on streaks of 9-3-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 6-2-1 when he faces the Dodgers overall, 4-0-1 when he pitches against L.A. at home and 15-7-2 when he battles the N.L. West.
The under is 5-1 in the last six clashes between these teams and 10-2 in the last 12 battles in Philadelphia, with Game 1 easily staying below the posted price. Also, the under for the Phillies is on runs of 6-0 in the playoffs, 7-0 against winning teams, 7-1 versus right-handed starters and 5-2 on Fridays. However, the Dodgers continue to sport over streaks of 5-2 in road playoff games, 8-3-1 in the second game of a series and 6-3-1 versus winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILDELPHIA and UNDER
ALCS
Boston (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-1)
Having survived their first-ever playoff series, the Rays continue their quest for their first American League pennant when they host the defending World Series champs in Game 1 of the best-of-7 American League Championship Series. James Shields (14-8, 3.56) is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay opposite Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) at Tropicana Field.
The Rays took out the White Sox in four games in the best-of-5 American League Divisional Series, clinching it with Monday’s 6-2 victory in Chicago. Tampa Bay swept both home games in the series by scores of 6-4 and 6-2, and Joe Maddon’s club has now won 55 of its last 72 contests at Tropicana Field. The Rays are on additional runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0 against A.L. East rivals, 40-18 versus right-handed starters, 20-6 on Fridays and 9-4 following a day off.
The Red Sox advanced to their second consecutive ALCS with Monday’s 3-2 victory over the Angels in Game 4, with the winning run scoring with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Although Boston won two playoff games in Los Angeles, they’re still just 41-42 on the highway this season, including 1-8 at Tropicana Field. On the bright side, the BoSox carry hot streaks of 22-7 in the playoffs, 8-3 in ALCS contests, 5-0 in road playoff games, 11-2 in series-openers, 6-1 on Fridays and 39-17 following a day off.
These rivals squared off 18 times this year, with Tampa Bay holding a slight 10-8 edge, which proved to be the difference in the A.L. East race, with the Rays winning the division by two games. The home team won the first 13 meetings this year and finished 15-3.
Matsuzaka, who went 2-1 with a 5.03 ERA in four playoff starts last year, got a no-decision in Boston’s 7-5 victory at the Angels in Game 2, as he gave up three runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings. Including that outing, the Japanese native is 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 road starts, 12 of which Boston won. In fact, the Red Sox are 24-6 with Dice-K on the bump in 2008, and they’re 43-20 in his last 63 starts.
Matsuzaka has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 26 of 30 starts this season, including the last seven in a row and all three 2008 starts versus the Rays. In those three contests against Tampa Bay, Matsuzaka went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA (1-0, 1.80 ERA in two outings at the Trop). In his two-year career, Matsuzaka has faced the Rays eight times, going 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA.
Shields picked up a victory in his – and his team’s – first postseason contest, but it wasn’t easy as he yielded three runs on six hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings, topping the White Sox 6-4 in Game 1 at home. Not counting a one-inning tune-up start against the Tigers in the regular-season finale, Shields has pitched at least six innings in eight consecutive trips to the mound.
Shields was Tampa’s most dominant pitcher at home, where he is 10-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 18 starts, with the Rays going 15-3. Against Boston this year, he went 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four starts, but both victories came at home where he allowed a combined two earned runs and seven hits in 15 1/3 innings (1.17 ERA).
The over is 4-0 in Matsuzaka’s last four starts against Tampa Bay (3-0 this season), 6-2 in Shields’ last eight outings overall and 4-0 in Shields’ last four starts at the Trop.
For the Red Sox, the under is on steaks of 4-1-1 overall, 8-2 in series-openers and 7-3 on Fridays, but the over is 5-1-2 in the team’s last eight ALCS games. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sports over runs of 19-7 at home, 13-6 following a victory, 15-7 against division foes and 5-1 on Friday. As for this rivalry, the total has alternated in each of the last 10 meetings, with the most recent contest topping the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisville (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Memphis (3-3, 2-2-1 ATS)
Memphis will try to make it four straight wins as the Tigers host Louisville inside the Liberty Bowl in a non-conference showdown between former conference rivals.
After three straight losses to open the season (1-2 ATS) Memphis has won three in a row (1-0-1 ATS), including a 33-30 road win at UAB last week, pushing as a three-point road chalk. The Tigers are third in Conference USA in total offense (462.7 yards per game) and rushing (190.5 yards per contest) and fifth in passing (272.2 ypg). RB Curtis Steele has ignited the offense during this three-game winning streak, running for 413 yards.
Louisville has had two weeks to stew over blowing a fourth-quarter lead at home to Connecticut, falling 26-21 as a 3½-point favorite. This will be the Cardinals’ first venture on the highway this season, and they come in healthy as QB Hunter Cantwell has recovered from an injured ankle and is slated to start tonight. Cantwell has been up and down this season, throwing for 876 yards with five TDs, but five INTs.
These rivals haven’t met since 2004, when Louisville went to Memphis and scored a thrilling 56-49 win, but failed to cover as a 13½-point favorite. The Cardinals have won five of the last six meetings between these schools since 1998, but they are just 1-5 ATS. In fact, the Cards are 8-2 SU in the last 10 series clashes but just 3-7 ATS. The underdog has cashed in nine of those 10 games, and the straight-up winner is just 3-7 ATS.
Louisville is on ATS streaks of 22-9 in non-conference games, 8-3 following a straight-up loss and 4-0 against Conference USA squads, but the Cardinals are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven October games and 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday kickoffs.
Memphis is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the Liberty Bowl and 2-5-3 ATS in its last 10 October outings.
The under is 5-1 in Louisville’s last six October games, but the over is 4-1 in its last five against a Conference USA team. For the Tigers, the over is 5-2 in their last seven overall and 15-7 in their last 22 following a straight-up win. Finally, the over has been the play in each of the last three Memphis-Louisville battles at the Liberty Bowl.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS
