Cajun Sports MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Monday
Date/Time: Monday April 6 / 7:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Total
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Graded Selection: 2* Over 6.5 (-20)
Analysis:
The Los Angeles Dodgers open the 2009 campaign on the road at the Padres on Monday night. The Dodgers will send right-hander Hiroki Kuroda to the bump with his 2-1 SU record against the Padres. Kuroda has a winning record versus the Padres but his ERA is 5.66 with a WHIP of 1.646 in most cases that would mean a losing record but these two teams score when they get together. Hiroki had a 3.59 ERA on the season in 2008 and the Dodgers bullpen had an ERA of 4.14 when playing on the highway. San Diego will send ace right-hander Jake Peavy to the hill with his 13-1 SU record versus this Dodgers team. Even though his ERA against the Dodgers is a very respectable 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.012 they have gone ‘over’ in his starts at a rate of 12-10 in his career. Peavy ended last season with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.500 in his last three trips to the bump and had a record of 1-2 in those three starts. Last season the Padres bullpen had an ERA of 4.09 when playing at home. This series has seen 22 of 35 meetings go ‘over’ the posted total the last three seasons and 9 of 17 ‘over’ when playing in San Diego. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the total number of runs scored to be 7.89 in tonight’s matchup so play the ‘over’ here as these two teams get off to a quick start with their bats and send this game well ‘over’ the posted total.
Graded Selection: 2* LA Dodgers / San Diego Padres OVER 6.5
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Date/Time: Monday April 6 / 7:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Total
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Graded Selection: 2* Over 6.5 (-20)
Analysis:
The Los Angeles Dodgers open the 2009 campaign on the road at the Padres on Monday night. The Dodgers will send right-hander Hiroki Kuroda to the bump with his 2-1 SU record against the Padres. Kuroda has a winning record versus the Padres but his ERA is 5.66 with a WHIP of 1.646 in most cases that would mean a losing record but these two teams score when they get together. Hiroki had a 3.59 ERA on the season in 2008 and the Dodgers bullpen had an ERA of 4.14 when playing on the highway. San Diego will send ace right-hander Jake Peavy to the hill with his 13-1 SU record versus this Dodgers team. Even though his ERA against the Dodgers is a very respectable 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.012 they have gone ‘over’ in his starts at a rate of 12-10 in his career. Peavy ended last season with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.500 in his last three trips to the bump and had a record of 1-2 in those three starts. Last season the Padres bullpen had an ERA of 4.09 when playing at home. This series has seen 22 of 35 meetings go ‘over’ the posted total the last three seasons and 9 of 17 ‘over’ when playing in San Diego. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the total number of runs scored to be 7.89 in tonight’s matchup so play the ‘over’ here as these two teams get off to a quick start with their bats and send this game well ‘over’ the posted total.
Graded Selection: 2* LA Dodgers / San Diego Padres OVER 6.5
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EZ Winners
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Time: 8:15PM CST
Risk/Win: $110 to win $100
(601) Michigan State Spartans +7.5
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
Sport: MLB
Time: 7:45PM CST
Risk/Win: $100 to win $105
(916) Texas Rangers +$105
(Listing Millwood Only)
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
Sport: MLB
Time: 6:05PM CST
Risk/Win: $105 to win $100
(912) Houston Astros -$105
(Listing Oswalt only)
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Time: 8:15PM CST
Risk/Win: $110 to win $100
(601) Michigan State Spartans +7.5
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
Sport: MLB
Time: 7:45PM CST
Risk/Win: $100 to win $105
(916) Texas Rangers +$105
(Listing Millwood Only)
***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Monday, April 6, 2009
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
Sport: MLB
Time: 6:05PM CST
Risk/Win: $105 to win $100
(912) Houston Astros -$105
(Listing Oswalt only)
GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - April 6, 2009
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Game: 9:15PM Title Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels
Current Line: -6.5
Over/Under: 154
Reason: The Michigan State Spartans and the North Carolina Tar Heels will hit the hardwood at Detroit's Ford Field on Monday night in the championship game of the 2009 NCAA Tournament.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tar Heels listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 154.
Kalin Lucas netted 21 points and dished out five assists on Saturday as Michigan State defeated Connecticut 82-73 in the Final Four. Michigan State won the game as a 4.5-point underdog, while the 155 points sailed OVER the posted total of 134.5.
Raymar Morgan tossed in 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds in that win for the Spartans.
North Carolina jumped out to a nine point lead at the half and ran to a 83-69 victory over Villanova in the Final Four. North Carolina easily covered the 7.5-point spread, but the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 160.
Ty Lawson led the way with 22 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the Tar Heels. Tyler Hansbrough added 15 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double in that win.
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Tip of the Day - April 6, 2009
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Game: 9:15PM Title Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels
Current Line: -6.5
Over/Under: 154
Reason: The Michigan State Spartans and the North Carolina Tar Heels will hit the hardwood at Detroit's Ford Field on Monday night in the championship game of the 2009 NCAA Tournament.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tar Heels listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 154.
Kalin Lucas netted 21 points and dished out five assists on Saturday as Michigan State defeated Connecticut 82-73 in the Final Four. Michigan State won the game as a 4.5-point underdog, while the 155 points sailed OVER the posted total of 134.5.
Raymar Morgan tossed in 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds in that win for the Spartans.
North Carolina jumped out to a nine point lead at the half and ran to a 83-69 victory over Villanova in the Final Four. North Carolina easily covered the 7.5-point spread, but the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 160.
Ty Lawson led the way with 22 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the Tar Heels. Tyler Hansbrough added 15 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double in that win.
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Michigan State (31-6, 21-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS)
Michigan State pulled the upset against top-seeded Connecticut in the Final Four on Saturday, building an 11-point second half lead then holding off a late Huskies surge to claim an 82-73 victory as a 4½-point underdog at Ford Field. The Spartans have been scorching hot lately, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 starts, including 5-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, they’ve now eliminated consecutive No. 1 seeds, following the upset of Louisville in the Elite Eight with Saturday’s stunner over UConn.
North Carolina was in full control against third-seeded Villanova on Saturday, racing out to a 17-point first-half edge. The Tar Heels let the Wildcats get back within five early in the second half before another surge pushed the lead back to 10, and they led by double digits the rest of the way in an 83-69 rout as a seven-point chalk. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this year’s Tournament, winning by double digits in every game.
This is a rematch of a game played back on Dec. 6, also at Ford Field, as the Tar Heels pummeled Michigan State 98-63 as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina outshot the Spartans 48 percent to 34.8 percent and forced 21 Michigan State turnovers. However, the Spartans were without big man Goran Suton (10 points, 7.8 rebounds per game average), who sat out with an injury.
These teams have met six times since 1998, with North Carolina going 4-2 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all six meetings. In addition to their 35-point win at Ford Field in December, the Tar Heels’ other three victories over the past 11 years against Michigan State have come in the NCAA Tournament, all of them double-digit routs. That includes an 87-71 win as a 4½-point chalk in the 2005 Final Four.
Michigan State has averaged 72.8 ppg and allowed 63.6 ppg so far in the Tournament, and North Carolina has beaten its opponents by a whopping average of nearly 21 ppg, netting 87.6 ppg while yielding just 66.8. Both teams are going after their second titles of the decade, with Michigan State winning it all in 2000 and Carolina taking the crown in 2005.
Michigan State is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on neutral floors this season, outscoring opponents by a couple buckets per game in averaging 71.9 points and allowing 67.2. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in eight neutral-court starts, piling up 87.4 ppg and giving up 71.0 ppg.
Guard Kalin Lucas leads a balanced Michigan State scoring attack at 14.7 ppg, and he fueled the Spartans with 21 points and five assists in the win over UConn. Forward Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) nearly got a double-double against the Huskies, with 18 points and nine rebounds, and he also had five steals.
All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough paces Carolina at 20.8 ppg and 8.2 rpg, and four more Tar Heels are averaging double digits, including star guard Ty Lawson (16.5 ppg), who also chips in 6.5 assists per game. Hansbrough had a double-double of 18 points and 11 boards against Villanova, and Lawson had game-highs of 22 points and eight assists.
The Spartans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup and a sterling 22-8-1 in their last 31 NCAA Tournament tilts. The only negative for Michigan State: a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five starts against the ACC, including this year’s blowout loss to Carolina.
The Tar Heels entered the Big Dance on a 2-9 ATS freefall (9-2 SU), but their trends are nothing but positive now, as they are on ATS upswings of 39-15 outside the ACC, 8-0 as a Tourney chalk of seven to 12½ points and 4-0 against the Big Ten. Plus, in the NCAAs, Carolina is on a 9-1 SU and ATS spree, with all nine wins coming by double digits from the favorite’s role. The lone loss was last year’s 84-66 Final Four setback to eventual champion Kansas as a 2½-point chalk.
The under for Michigan State is on tears of 11-5 overall, 9-4 after a SU win, 8-3 after an ATS victory, 39-19-1 with the Spartans getting points, 10-5 with the Spartans as a neutral-court ‘dog and 5-2 against the ACC. Likewise, the under for North Carolina is on tears of 5-1 overall (all at neutral sites and all with the Tar Heels favored), 5-1 in the Tournament and 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the December meeting between these two fell a couple baskets short of the hefty 166½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (0-0) at San Diego (0-0)
The reigning N.L. West champion Dodgers open the season on the road at Petco Park against the Padres, who finished with the majors’ third-worst record last season. Los Angeles will hand the ball to right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA in 2008) against San Diego ace Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85).
Los Angeles finished the regular season by winning 10 of its last 15 games to edge Arizona by two games for the division crown. The Dodgers then stunned the Central Division champion Cubs with a three-game playoff sweep before falling to the eventual World Series champion Phillies, losing the best-of-7 National League Championship Series 4-1.
San Diego went 7-11 in its last 18 starts of 2008, fairly indicative of the entire season, as the Padres finished 11 games under .500 at Petco Park (35-46) and far worse on the road (28-53). San Diego’s offense mustered just 637 runs all season, for an average of 3.93 per game, while giving up 764 runs for an average of nearly a run higher at 4.72 per game.
Los Angeles went 11-7 against San Diego last year, including 5-4 at Petco Park, and the Dodgers won four of the last five clashes.
Kuroda had an average rookie season, but he was sterling in his two playoff starts, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. In the series-clinching Game 3 victory over the Cubs, he threw 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball, scattering six hits with two walks in a 3-1 victory. Then in Game 3 against the Phillies, he led the Dodgers to their lone NLCS win, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings in a 7-2 rout. Los Angeles went 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, with the right-hander going 4-0 with two no-decisions.
Peavy was solid on the mound last year but just couldn’t get much offensive support. He went 5-5 in his last 10 starts, but the Pads scored three runs or less in seven of those games, including shutout losses of 2-0 to San Francisco and 1-0 to Milwaukee. On the bright side, Peavy beat the Dodgers in his last regular-season start, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in five innings of a 7-5 road victory.
Kuroda went 3-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 road outings last year and 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts against the Padres. Peavy was 5-5 despite a remarkable 1.74 ERA in 14 starts at Petco in 2008, and he’s owned the Dodgers in his career with a 13-1 record and a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts.
The Dodgers are 16-7 in their last 23 division contests, but they won just one of their last five games during the playoffs, and with Kuroda taking the ball, they are on skids of 2-5 on the road and 1-7 with the 34-year-old as a road underdog. The Padres went just 1-5 in their last six home games last year, but with Peavy pitching, they are on a 16-5 run against the Dodgers, including 8-0 in his last eight outings against L.A. at home, and they’re 11-5 in the right-hander’s last 16 Monday starts..
The over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 against right-handers, 4-1-1 in series openers, 5-0 with Kuroda starting a series opener and 5-2-1 in Kuroda’s last eight starts overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in Kuroda’s last 16 road starts. The over for San Diego is on rolls of 12-5 overall, 6-2 at home and 5-0 in series openers, but with Peavy starting, the under is on stretches of 10-3-1 overall and 38-18-4 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Chicago Cubs (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
The Cubs begin their quest to end a 101-year World Series championship drought when they travel to Houston for an N.L. Central battle with the Astros. Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA in 2008) is scheduled to oppose Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54) in a clash of bona fide aces.
Chicago went 89-74 in 2008, won its second consecutive N.L. Central title and was a heavy favorite to reach its first World Series since 1945. However, the Cubs wilted under the postseason pressure, getting swept by the Dodgers in the N.L. Division Series, losing the three games by a combined score of 20-6. The Cubs were a dismal road team last year, going 35-46.
Houston (86-75 last year) struggled out of the gate in 2008, but finished on a 39-19 roll, including winning 21 of its last 28 at Minute Maid Park to finish 47-33 at home. Additionally, the Astros enter 2009 on runs of 16-5 as a favorite, 13-3 as a home chalk and 15-7 against right-handed starters.
The Astros won the season series against the Cubs by a slim 9-8 margin, but the visitor won the last five meetings, including Chicago’s two-game sweep of a series moved to Milwaukee when Hurricane Ike hit Houston in early September.
Zambrano got rocked in his one playoff start last year, giving up seven runs (three earned) in 6 1/3 innings of a 10-3 Game 1 loss to the Dodgers. After tossing a no-hitter against the Astros in Milwaukee on Sept. 14, Zambrano went 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA, allowing 20 runs (16 earned) in 12 2/3 innings. The right-hander went 7-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 regular-season road starts last year.
Oswalt was sensational down the stretch last year, tossing 11 consecutive quality starts (three earned runs allowed or less and at least six innings pitched) to end the season. He went 8-2 with a 1.44 ERA in those 13 games, with Houston also winning his one no-decision. At home last year, the veteran right-hander was 10-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 starts.
Zambrano is 12-7 with a 2.70 ERA in 26 career appearances (24 starts) against the Astros, including the 5-0 no-hit victory last September. He’s also 6-3 with a 3.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, Oswalt is 12-11 with a 3.88 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) against Chicago, including 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three outings against the Cubs at home.
With Zambrano on the hill, Chicago is on streaks of 19-9 overall, 37-15 on the road, 16-5 as an underdog, 11-2 as a road pup and 15-7 against the Astros. Houston is 55-18 in Oswalt’s last 73 home starts (8-0 in the last eight last year), 6-1 in his last seven outings overall and 85-40 in his last 125 as a favorite.
The under is 36-15-1 in the last 51 meetings between these squads, 23-6 in the last 29 clashes in Houston, 16-5 in Zambrano’s last 21 starts against the Astros and 9-1 in his last 10 outings in Houston. Additionally, the under is on runs for the Astros of 7-2 at home, 7-2 in divisional games, 16-7 against right-handed starters and 8-1 overall with Oswalt on the mound.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (0-0) at L.A. Angels (0-0)
The Angels, who finished with the best record in baseball last year but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs, open the 2009 campaign with a four-game series against the division rival Athletics at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles will send left-hander Joe Saunders (17-7, 2.03 ERA in 2008) up against fellow lefty Dallas Braden (5-4, 4.14).
After posting a solid 100-62 regular-season record, Los Angeles got bounced by Boston in four games in the best-of-5 divisional round, dropping the first two games at home. The Angels won Game 3 on the road, but the Red Sox finished it off with a 3-2 win at Fenway in Game 4. The Angels ended the year on a 4-6 skid, but they were remarkably consistent in finishing with an identical 51-30 mark at home and on the road. The team’s lofty record was mainly the result winning close games, outscoring opponents by an average of less than half a run per game (4.7-4.3).
Oakland finished third in the A.L. West last year with a sub-par 75-86 record, 24½ games behind the Angels. The A’s dropped their last five games, all on the road. For the season, Oakland went 43-38 at home but just 32-48 on the highway. However, the A’s added slugger Matt Holliday and brought back Jason Giambi in the offseason, hoping to bolster an offense that averaged only four runs per game last year.
These rivals played a competitive season series in 2008, with L.A. going 10-9 overall and 5-5 at home.
Saunders was the lone bright spot in the playoffs for the Angels, helping the Halos to the Game 3 win in the first round against Boston. He allowed all four runs on five hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 victory. Including the playoffs, Los Angeles went 6-0 in Saunders’ last six starts, with the youngster posting a 2.82 ERA.
The Athletics won five of Braden’s last seven starts last season, with the 25-year-old going 3-2 with two no-decisions and a 3.46 ERA. Braden went at least 5 2/3 innings in five of those starts, with three seven-inning stints, including a 2-1 road victory over the Angels in which he allowed seven hits (one for a solo homer) with no walks.
Braden appeared in 11 road games last year (six starts), finishing 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA, and he ‘s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six appearances (two starts) versus Los Angeles. Saunders was 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA in 16 home starts last year, and he’s 5-2 with a 4.44 ERA in nine career outings against Oakland.
The Angels are on runs of 35-17 in division play and 17-8 against lefties, and with Saunders on the hill, they are on additional streaks of 38-15 overall, 25-10 at home, 8-2 against A.L. West foes and 17-4 in series openers. Along with their aforementioned 0-5 skid to end last season (all in division play), the A’s are in ruts of 12-30 on the road, 0-4 against southpaws and 8-17 on the road against left-handers.
The under for Los Angeles is on rolls of 35-16-3 against left-handed starters, 35-17-4 at home against lefties and 4-1-1 in Saunders’ last six starts, and the under for Oakland is on runs of 38-18-1 in series openers, 4-1 overall for Braden, 4-1 in Braden’s last five road outings and 8-2 behind Braden on grass. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 31-13 in the last 44 clashes at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
(2) Michigan State (31-6, 21-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS)
Michigan State pulled the upset against top-seeded Connecticut in the Final Four on Saturday, building an 11-point second half lead then holding off a late Huskies surge to claim an 82-73 victory as a 4½-point underdog at Ford Field. The Spartans have been scorching hot lately, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 starts, including 5-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, they’ve now eliminated consecutive No. 1 seeds, following the upset of Louisville in the Elite Eight with Saturday’s stunner over UConn.
North Carolina was in full control against third-seeded Villanova on Saturday, racing out to a 17-point first-half edge. The Tar Heels let the Wildcats get back within five early in the second half before another surge pushed the lead back to 10, and they led by double digits the rest of the way in an 83-69 rout as a seven-point chalk. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this year’s Tournament, winning by double digits in every game.
This is a rematch of a game played back on Dec. 6, also at Ford Field, as the Tar Heels pummeled Michigan State 98-63 as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina outshot the Spartans 48 percent to 34.8 percent and forced 21 Michigan State turnovers. However, the Spartans were without big man Goran Suton (10 points, 7.8 rebounds per game average), who sat out with an injury.
These teams have met six times since 1998, with North Carolina going 4-2 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all six meetings. In addition to their 35-point win at Ford Field in December, the Tar Heels’ other three victories over the past 11 years against Michigan State have come in the NCAA Tournament, all of them double-digit routs. That includes an 87-71 win as a 4½-point chalk in the 2005 Final Four.
Michigan State has averaged 72.8 ppg and allowed 63.6 ppg so far in the Tournament, and North Carolina has beaten its opponents by a whopping average of nearly 21 ppg, netting 87.6 ppg while yielding just 66.8. Both teams are going after their second titles of the decade, with Michigan State winning it all in 2000 and Carolina taking the crown in 2005.
Michigan State is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on neutral floors this season, outscoring opponents by a couple buckets per game in averaging 71.9 points and allowing 67.2. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in eight neutral-court starts, piling up 87.4 ppg and giving up 71.0 ppg.
Guard Kalin Lucas leads a balanced Michigan State scoring attack at 14.7 ppg, and he fueled the Spartans with 21 points and five assists in the win over UConn. Forward Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) nearly got a double-double against the Huskies, with 18 points and nine rebounds, and he also had five steals.
All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough paces Carolina at 20.8 ppg and 8.2 rpg, and four more Tar Heels are averaging double digits, including star guard Ty Lawson (16.5 ppg), who also chips in 6.5 assists per game. Hansbrough had a double-double of 18 points and 11 boards against Villanova, and Lawson had game-highs of 22 points and eight assists.
The Spartans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup and a sterling 22-8-1 in their last 31 NCAA Tournament tilts. The only negative for Michigan State: a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five starts against the ACC, including this year’s blowout loss to Carolina.
The Tar Heels entered the Big Dance on a 2-9 ATS freefall (9-2 SU), but their trends are nothing but positive now, as they are on ATS upswings of 39-15 outside the ACC, 8-0 as a Tourney chalk of seven to 12½ points and 4-0 against the Big Ten. Plus, in the NCAAs, Carolina is on a 9-1 SU and ATS spree, with all nine wins coming by double digits from the favorite’s role. The lone loss was last year’s 84-66 Final Four setback to eventual champion Kansas as a 2½-point chalk.
The under for Michigan State is on tears of 11-5 overall, 9-4 after a SU win, 8-3 after an ATS victory, 39-19-1 with the Spartans getting points, 10-5 with the Spartans as a neutral-court ‘dog and 5-2 against the ACC. Likewise, the under for North Carolina is on tears of 5-1 overall (all at neutral sites and all with the Tar Heels favored), 5-1 in the Tournament and 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the December meeting between these two fell a couple baskets short of the hefty 166½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (0-0) at San Diego (0-0)
The reigning N.L. West champion Dodgers open the season on the road at Petco Park against the Padres, who finished with the majors’ third-worst record last season. Los Angeles will hand the ball to right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA in 2008) against San Diego ace Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85).
Los Angeles finished the regular season by winning 10 of its last 15 games to edge Arizona by two games for the division crown. The Dodgers then stunned the Central Division champion Cubs with a three-game playoff sweep before falling to the eventual World Series champion Phillies, losing the best-of-7 National League Championship Series 4-1.
San Diego went 7-11 in its last 18 starts of 2008, fairly indicative of the entire season, as the Padres finished 11 games under .500 at Petco Park (35-46) and far worse on the road (28-53). San Diego’s offense mustered just 637 runs all season, for an average of 3.93 per game, while giving up 764 runs for an average of nearly a run higher at 4.72 per game.
Los Angeles went 11-7 against San Diego last year, including 5-4 at Petco Park, and the Dodgers won four of the last five clashes.
Kuroda had an average rookie season, but he was sterling in his two playoff starts, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. In the series-clinching Game 3 victory over the Cubs, he threw 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball, scattering six hits with two walks in a 3-1 victory. Then in Game 3 against the Phillies, he led the Dodgers to their lone NLCS win, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings in a 7-2 rout. Los Angeles went 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, with the right-hander going 4-0 with two no-decisions.
Peavy was solid on the mound last year but just couldn’t get much offensive support. He went 5-5 in his last 10 starts, but the Pads scored three runs or less in seven of those games, including shutout losses of 2-0 to San Francisco and 1-0 to Milwaukee. On the bright side, Peavy beat the Dodgers in his last regular-season start, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in five innings of a 7-5 road victory.
Kuroda went 3-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 road outings last year and 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts against the Padres. Peavy was 5-5 despite a remarkable 1.74 ERA in 14 starts at Petco in 2008, and he’s owned the Dodgers in his career with a 13-1 record and a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts.
The Dodgers are 16-7 in their last 23 division contests, but they won just one of their last five games during the playoffs, and with Kuroda taking the ball, they are on skids of 2-5 on the road and 1-7 with the 34-year-old as a road underdog. The Padres went just 1-5 in their last six home games last year, but with Peavy pitching, they are on a 16-5 run against the Dodgers, including 8-0 in his last eight outings against L.A. at home, and they’re 11-5 in the right-hander’s last 16 Monday starts..
The over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 against right-handers, 4-1-1 in series openers, 5-0 with Kuroda starting a series opener and 5-2-1 in Kuroda’s last eight starts overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in Kuroda’s last 16 road starts. The over for San Diego is on rolls of 12-5 overall, 6-2 at home and 5-0 in series openers, but with Peavy starting, the under is on stretches of 10-3-1 overall and 38-18-4 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Chicago Cubs (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
The Cubs begin their quest to end a 101-year World Series championship drought when they travel to Houston for an N.L. Central battle with the Astros. Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA in 2008) is scheduled to oppose Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54) in a clash of bona fide aces.
Chicago went 89-74 in 2008, won its second consecutive N.L. Central title and was a heavy favorite to reach its first World Series since 1945. However, the Cubs wilted under the postseason pressure, getting swept by the Dodgers in the N.L. Division Series, losing the three games by a combined score of 20-6. The Cubs were a dismal road team last year, going 35-46.
Houston (86-75 last year) struggled out of the gate in 2008, but finished on a 39-19 roll, including winning 21 of its last 28 at Minute Maid Park to finish 47-33 at home. Additionally, the Astros enter 2009 on runs of 16-5 as a favorite, 13-3 as a home chalk and 15-7 against right-handed starters.
The Astros won the season series against the Cubs by a slim 9-8 margin, but the visitor won the last five meetings, including Chicago’s two-game sweep of a series moved to Milwaukee when Hurricane Ike hit Houston in early September.
Zambrano got rocked in his one playoff start last year, giving up seven runs (three earned) in 6 1/3 innings of a 10-3 Game 1 loss to the Dodgers. After tossing a no-hitter against the Astros in Milwaukee on Sept. 14, Zambrano went 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA, allowing 20 runs (16 earned) in 12 2/3 innings. The right-hander went 7-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 regular-season road starts last year.
Oswalt was sensational down the stretch last year, tossing 11 consecutive quality starts (three earned runs allowed or less and at least six innings pitched) to end the season. He went 8-2 with a 1.44 ERA in those 13 games, with Houston also winning his one no-decision. At home last year, the veteran right-hander was 10-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 starts.
Zambrano is 12-7 with a 2.70 ERA in 26 career appearances (24 starts) against the Astros, including the 5-0 no-hit victory last September. He’s also 6-3 with a 3.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, Oswalt is 12-11 with a 3.88 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) against Chicago, including 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three outings against the Cubs at home.
With Zambrano on the hill, Chicago is on streaks of 19-9 overall, 37-15 on the road, 16-5 as an underdog, 11-2 as a road pup and 15-7 against the Astros. Houston is 55-18 in Oswalt’s last 73 home starts (8-0 in the last eight last year), 6-1 in his last seven outings overall and 85-40 in his last 125 as a favorite.
The under is 36-15-1 in the last 51 meetings between these squads, 23-6 in the last 29 clashes in Houston, 16-5 in Zambrano’s last 21 starts against the Astros and 9-1 in his last 10 outings in Houston. Additionally, the under is on runs for the Astros of 7-2 at home, 7-2 in divisional games, 16-7 against right-handed starters and 8-1 overall with Oswalt on the mound.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (0-0) at L.A. Angels (0-0)
The Angels, who finished with the best record in baseball last year but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs, open the 2009 campaign with a four-game series against the division rival Athletics at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles will send left-hander Joe Saunders (17-7, 2.03 ERA in 2008) up against fellow lefty Dallas Braden (5-4, 4.14).
After posting a solid 100-62 regular-season record, Los Angeles got bounced by Boston in four games in the best-of-5 divisional round, dropping the first two games at home. The Angels won Game 3 on the road, but the Red Sox finished it off with a 3-2 win at Fenway in Game 4. The Angels ended the year on a 4-6 skid, but they were remarkably consistent in finishing with an identical 51-30 mark at home and on the road. The team’s lofty record was mainly the result winning close games, outscoring opponents by an average of less than half a run per game (4.7-4.3).
Oakland finished third in the A.L. West last year with a sub-par 75-86 record, 24½ games behind the Angels. The A’s dropped their last five games, all on the road. For the season, Oakland went 43-38 at home but just 32-48 on the highway. However, the A’s added slugger Matt Holliday and brought back Jason Giambi in the offseason, hoping to bolster an offense that averaged only four runs per game last year.
These rivals played a competitive season series in 2008, with L.A. going 10-9 overall and 5-5 at home.
Saunders was the lone bright spot in the playoffs for the Angels, helping the Halos to the Game 3 win in the first round against Boston. He allowed all four runs on five hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 victory. Including the playoffs, Los Angeles went 6-0 in Saunders’ last six starts, with the youngster posting a 2.82 ERA.
The Athletics won five of Braden’s last seven starts last season, with the 25-year-old going 3-2 with two no-decisions and a 3.46 ERA. Braden went at least 5 2/3 innings in five of those starts, with three seven-inning stints, including a 2-1 road victory over the Angels in which he allowed seven hits (one for a solo homer) with no walks.
Braden appeared in 11 road games last year (six starts), finishing 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA, and he ‘s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six appearances (two starts) versus Los Angeles. Saunders was 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA in 16 home starts last year, and he’s 5-2 with a 4.44 ERA in nine career outings against Oakland.
The Angels are on runs of 35-17 in division play and 17-8 against lefties, and with Saunders on the hill, they are on additional streaks of 38-15 overall, 25-10 at home, 8-2 against A.L. West foes and 17-4 in series openers. Along with their aforementioned 0-5 skid to end last season (all in division play), the A’s are in ruts of 12-30 on the road, 0-4 against southpaws and 8-17 on the road against left-handers.
The under for Los Angeles is on rolls of 35-16-3 against left-handed starters, 35-17-4 at home against lefties and 4-1-1 in Saunders’ last six starts, and the under for Oakland is on runs of 38-18-1 in series openers, 4-1 overall for Braden, 4-1 in Braden’s last five road outings and 8-2 behind Braden on grass. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 31-13 in the last 44 clashes at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Rocketman Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -124
Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound for the LA Dodgers here on opening day where he was only 3-8 on the road last season. Jake Peavy had a nice 2.85 ERA overall last year and a SUPER 1.74 ERA at home last season. Peavy is 13-1 with a 2.32 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. Dodgers are 1-7 in Kurodas last 8 starts as a road underdog. Padres are 4-1 in Peavys last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Padres are 8-0 in Peavys last 8 home starts vs. Dodgers. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -124
Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound for the LA Dodgers here on opening day where he was only 3-8 on the road last season. Jake Peavy had a nice 2.85 ERA overall last year and a SUPER 1.74 ERA at home last season. Peavy is 13-1 with a 2.32 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. Dodgers are 1-7 in Kurodas last 8 starts as a road underdog. Padres are 4-1 in Peavys last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Padres are 8-0 in Peavys last 8 home starts vs. Dodgers. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Craig Trapp
Michigan State vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -7.5
This National Championship game will be a great contrast of styles. Earlier this year these two teams played in Detroit on this exact same court. The game did not turn out so well for MSU as UNC ran away with the game winning 98 - 63. The first game featured UNC and the athletic domination was unbelievable. MSU must decide in this game to slow this game down or risk a repeat of the earlier game. Odds Makers have made UNC -7.5 point favorites and the total at 152.5. Lets look at the team records and trends:
Team records:
Michigan State: 31-6 SU, 21-13 ATS
North Carolina: 33-4 SU, 17-19 ATS
Recend Trends:
-Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
-Spartans are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 NCAA Tournament games.
-Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
-Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
We are going to be on UNC today -7.5. MSU will need to slow down the game and make this game into a half court game. In the first meeting the athletic difference was a huge difference. The one advantage that MSU has is Coaching. Tom Izzo has willed his team to two straight upset winners beating Pitino and Calhoun, not bad. Hopefully Roy Williams won't over think this game, and instead let Ty Lawson push the ball all game. The best collection of NBA talent on one team since the 2005 UNC Championship team. In the end the superior athletic team pulls away and wins by double digits.
Michigan State vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -7.5
This National Championship game will be a great contrast of styles. Earlier this year these two teams played in Detroit on this exact same court. The game did not turn out so well for MSU as UNC ran away with the game winning 98 - 63. The first game featured UNC and the athletic domination was unbelievable. MSU must decide in this game to slow this game down or risk a repeat of the earlier game. Odds Makers have made UNC -7.5 point favorites and the total at 152.5. Lets look at the team records and trends:
Team records:
Michigan State: 31-6 SU, 21-13 ATS
North Carolina: 33-4 SU, 17-19 ATS
Recend Trends:
-Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
-Spartans are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 NCAA Tournament games.
-Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
-Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
We are going to be on UNC today -7.5. MSU will need to slow down the game and make this game into a half court game. In the first meeting the athletic difference was a huge difference. The one advantage that MSU has is Coaching. Tom Izzo has willed his team to two straight upset winners beating Pitino and Calhoun, not bad. Hopefully Roy Williams won't over think this game, and instead let Ty Lawson push the ball all game. The best collection of NBA talent on one team since the 2005 UNC Championship team. In the end the superior athletic team pulls away and wins by double digits.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ NY Yanks Over 8.5
Last year Camden Yards was the 3rd best hitting park in the league, as their games averaged 10.5 rpg. Last year CC Sabathia got off to a rocky start and could have similar struggles today vs a decent Baltimore offense that ranked 11th in scoring last year (4.86 rpg). Last year the Yanks were in the top 10 in most offensive categories abd they have had good success vs Guthrie as he owns a 4.62 ERA in 6 careeer starts vs them. The Yanks got off to a slow start last year and you can bet they're ready to put some runs on the board early and often, even without ARod. I see double digits in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets -155 over CINCINNATI
3 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ NY Yanks Over 8.5
Last year Camden Yards was the 3rd best hitting park in the league, as their games averaged 10.5 rpg. Last year CC Sabathia got off to a rocky start and could have similar struggles today vs a decent Baltimore offense that ranked 11th in scoring last year (4.86 rpg). Last year the Yanks were in the top 10 in most offensive categories abd they have had good success vs Guthrie as he owns a 4.62 ERA in 6 careeer starts vs them. The Yanks got off to a slow start last year and you can bet they're ready to put some runs on the board early and often, even without ARod. I see double digits in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets -155 over CINCINNATI
Big Al
At 4pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles 'over' the total.
At 1:10 pm our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the New York Mets.
At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Michigan State.
At 3:40pm our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies.
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At 4pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles 'over' the total.
At 1:10 pm our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the New York Mets.
At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Michigan State.
At 3:40pm our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies.
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