sell! sell! sell!

Search

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
you should know well i'm already sporting the beard :lol:

shit cycles, we heading for a nasty recession, not the end of the world
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
well expect bully to have a little bit of fun tomorrow

looks like the weekend shopping fest went pretty well, american consumer is relentless that's for sure

----------------------------------------------------------

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071125/holiday_shopping.html

"This was a really good start. ... There seemed to be a lot of pent-up demand," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets. ShopperTrak reported late Sunday that sales on Friday and Saturday combined rose 7.2 percent to $16.4 billion from the same two-day period a year ago.

Total sales on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, rose to $10.3 billion, up 8.3 percent from the same day a year ago. Martin had expected increases no greater than 5 percent.

Meanwhile, Internet research firm comScore Inc. reported a 22 percent gain in online sales on the day after Thanksgiving compared with the same day a year ago and estimated online sales would exceed $700 million online Monday, the official kickoff to the online shopping season.

The signs were encouraging, but stores are now wondering whether bargain hunters will keep up the pace as they face an escalating credit crunch, depreciating home values and rising daily living expenses.

Frederick Crawford, managing director at AlixPartners, a turnaround consulting company, said that amid economic challenges, people are buying fewer gifts.

"Clearly, it was mission-based shopping," Crawford said. "People had their list, and they were very specific in what they were looking for."

Consumers were out looking for bargains.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
on the other hand they spent less on average

-------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az8yoBGs.Tak&refer=home

U.S. Consumers Spent 3.5% Less on Holiday Shopping (Update1)

By Cotten Timberlake and Tiffany Kary

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.

Shoppers spent an average of $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today, choosing to buy less-expensive digital- photo frames and cashmere sweaters, the National Retail Federation said today in a statement. Store visits increased 4.8 percent.

Customers have cut back on spending in the face of increased costs for milk and gasoline and the worst housing slump in 16 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. responded by offering holiday discounts more than two weeks earlier than last year while Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. reduced clothing prices by as much as 60 percent.

``The sense we have this year is that shoppers are very mission-focused,'' said Fred Crawford, managing director for consulting and advisory firm AlixPartners LLP. ``They know who is carrying what, and at what price point.''

More than 147 million consumers visited stores over the weekend, the NRF said, based on a poll it commissioned from BIGresearch. The average spending amount last year was helped by increased sales of high-definition televisions, NRF spokesman Scott Krugman said.

``It's the saturation of HD-TVs into the market, and also retailers recognizing that consumers will be more conservative this year and focusing on lower-priced merchandise,'' he said.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
so overall early indication is people are still quite hungry for cheap chinese goods but being much more stingy about it

so even though their sales maybe up a resonable amount i expect the margins to be down
 

919

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2005
Messages
9,359
Tokens
I swear, if our forefathers had had tizdoom's bleak outlook, we'd still be living caves with no indoor plumbing -- ya know, kinda like our enemies. In a single lifetime, Americans went from horse and buggy to landing a man on the moon (as "unconstitutional" as it was).

Please do tell of Canada's forefathers....:nohead:
 

919

Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2005
Messages
9,359
Tokens
By the way, nothing against Canadians....just calling out the liar.
 

I'm still here Mo-fo's
Joined
Sep 20, 2001
Messages
8,359
Tokens
I swear, if our forefathers had had tizdoom's bleak outlook, we'd still be living caves with no indoor plumbing -- ya know, kinda like our enemies. In a single lifetime, Americans went from horse and buggy to landing a man on the moon (as "unconstitutional" as it was).

Meanwhile, back in the 7th century...

Can you grow a strong beard, tizdoom? Sounds like you and a few others in this here forum would fit right in. :103631605

Now that's actually pretty f'ing funny Joe

:lol:
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
hey betit early indications point to up tomorrow

yen down, asia up, gold up, oil up, us futures up

plus i'm sure the headline sales numbers for black friday will probably get the bulls enthusiastic

but its still pretty early in the action i'll be back with a final answer in 3 hours or so

:toast:
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
this hasn't crossed my mind interesting

USD carry trade replacing yen carry trade? bye bye dollar if it really gets going

-------------------------------------------------------------

Dollar Displaces Yen, Franc as Favorite for Funding Carry Trade

By Bo Nielsen

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Using the dollar to pay for purchases of currencies with higher yields is proving to be the most profitable trade in the foreign-exchange market.

A basket of currencies including the British pound, Brazilian real and Hungarian forint financed with dollars returned 17 percent this year, compared with 9 percent when funded in yen and 7 percent in Swiss francs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling U.S. interest rates and increasing volatility in the yen and franc are making the trade even more appealing.

``With the dollar giving the appearance of being in free fall, it increases the attractiveness of using the currency to fund investments,'' said Avinash Persaud, chairman of London- based Intelligence Capital Ltd., which advises hedge funds that manage more than $89 billion. ``That process will only add more fuel to the decline.''

The last time the U.S. currency was used for so-called carry trades was in 2004, when the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight loans between banks was 1 percent, said Niels From, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. Since then, it has weakened 18 percent on a trade-weighted basis, according to a Fed index. The International Monetary Fund says the dollar made up 64.8 percent of central banks' currency reserves in the second quarter, down from 71 percent in 1999.

Investors are borrowing dollars and using the money to buy assets in countries with higher interest rates even though U.S. borrowing costs are 4 percentage points more than the Bank of Japan's and 1.75 percentage points above the Swiss National Bank benchmark. In carry trades, speculators get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher returns, earning the spread between the two.

Housing Slump

Speculation against the dollar increased as the worst housing slump since 1991 forced policy makers to cut the benchmark rate twice to keep the economy out of recession. The currency depreciated in five of the past six years leading central bankers from the Arabian Peninsula to China to diversify their reserves and increase holdings of non-U.S. assets.

The dollar dropped 1.2 percent last week against the euro to $1.4837, and has weakened 12 percent so far in 2007. The U.S. currency has depreciated 10 percent versus the yen this year, including 2.5 percent last week to 108.35 yen. It fell to a record 1.089 Swiss francs on Nov. 23.

Investors may switch more than $100 billion of borrowing from yen or francs into dollars in the next two years for carry trades said Jens Nordvig, a strategist with New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.

Real, Won, Pesos

The value of futures contracts held this month by hedge funds and traders betting against the dollar was a record $33.9 billion more than contracts that profit from a gain, according to New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm.

Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees the world's biggest managed bond fund, is selling dollars against the Brazil real, Mexican peso, Korean won and Singapore dollar.

``When we think about currencies on a three- to five-year basis we're very bullish on emerging markets versus the U.S. dollar,'' said Andrew Balls, who helps manage $80 billion for Newport, California-based Pimco. ``That view is only reinforced when you look at interest-rate differentials.''

The real rose 18.5 percent this year and Singapore's currency strengthened 6.4 percent, while the won was little changed. The Mexican peso fell 1.4 percent, the only one of the 16 most-traded currencies to do worse in the foreign exchange market.

Interest Rates

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, expects the Fed to lower borrowing costs to around 3 percent, from 4.5 percent. Policy makers have reduced the rate by 0.75 percentage point since Sept. 18.

Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show investors see a 58 percent probability that the U.S. benchmark will drop to 3.75 percent by March 31. Switzerland's key rate is 2.75 percent and Japan's is 0.5 percent.

The dollar produced a positive carry, the combined gain from the difference between interest rates and changes in foreign exchange, against 20 of the 24 most actively traded emerging market currencies this year, Bloomberg data show. The franc was positive against 12 and the yen versus 14.

Using a currency to finance bets can drive down its value. Former Japanese vice finance minister Hiroshi Watanabe said in May that one reason the yen had fallen to a record low against the euro was because it was funding about $500 billion of carry trades.

Attracting Speculators

The dollar attracted speculators when the Fed cut the target rate from 6.5 percent in 2001 to 1 percent in June 2003 and kept it there for a year, said Dresdner Kleinwort's From. When the Fed started to raise borrowing costs, traders fled. The U.S. rate surpassed the European Central Bank's benchmark in December 2004, helping the dollar gain almost 13 percent versus the euro the following year.

Strategists say the U.S. currency will recover because the economy is adding jobs and producing faster inflation, limiting the Fed from reducing borrowing costs. The dollar will rebound to $1.42 per euro and to 113 yen by the end of June, according to the median forecast of 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Fed will probably cut its target a quarter-point to 4.25 percent in the next three months and leave it there through 2008, according to a separate survey from Nov. 1 to Nov. 8. The U.S. economy will accelerate to a 2 percent annual growth rate next quarter, from the current 1.5 percent, the survey showed.

``We're actually bullish the U.S. dollar,'' said Jack McIntyre, who helps manage $25 billion at Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC in Philadelphia. ``As long as the world doesn't fall off a cliff, we will see people continue to play the carry trades and the yen will be the premier funding currency.''


:lol:

`Safer Source'

The dollar is becoming more attractive for speculators concerned that higher volatility will reduce profits from bets funded in yen. An increase in price swings dents returns by raising the risk that gains from the spread between interest rates will be erased by foreign-exchange losses.

The yen appreciated 8.7 percent against the dollar since Oct. 15 as implied volatility on one-month dollar-yen options climbed to 14.97 percent from 7.47 percent. Dealers quote implied volatility, a gauge of expectations for currency moves.

``The dollar becomes a safer source of funding'' as volatility rises, said Maxime Tessier, head of foreign exchange in Montreal at Caisse de Depot et Placement, which manages $151 billion.
 

Breaking Bad Snob
Joined
Dec 5, 2004
Messages
13,430
Tokens
DAWOOF-

Have you read Crash-Proof? If so, what do you think about it.

I posted some questions in your thread on the Financial Investment board.

As sad as it is and as much as I don't want it to happen, I feel that a near or total collapse is near. I'm looking for any advice that would help me profit if/when it happens.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
pretty safe bet on up tomorrow betit if you around

asia just flying

feel a santa claus bear shake building here
 

Breaking Bad Snob
Joined
Dec 5, 2004
Messages
13,430
Tokens
It's definitely looking up. My only fear when I swap QID for QQQQ is the late day sell-off back into the red that we've seen a few times lately.
 

Triple digit silver kook
Joined
Mar 1, 2005
Messages
13,697
Tokens
Countrywide again heading lower into 8 dollar range.

deac, these books you are mentioning are repeating what ive been posting here since joining the site.

the investments havent really changed the past few years.

there is going to be an economic depression in the united states.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 16, 2004
Messages
5,137
Tokens
pretty safe bet on up tomorrow betit if you around

asia just flying

feel a santa claus bear shake building here


wasn't around to grab it last night but thanks for the heads up...keep it coming
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
It's definitely looking up. My only fear when I swap QID for QQQQ is the late day sell-off back into the red that we've seen a few times lately.

I wouldn't knee jerk on QID i hold quite a bit and don't play around with it much, I was just talking to betit for the fun of choosing will dow be up or down on the day

I don't worry about the short term day swings in my portfolio (which is leaned to the short side of the spectrum quite a bit at this point in time) which i obviously enjoy ranting alot about though. This pig is done put a fork in it.

Bear is back...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
AP
HSBC Bails Out 2 Troubled Funds
Monday November 26, 10:43 am ET
By Robert Barr, Associated Press Writer
HSBC Assumes $45B in Assets and Funding in Bailout of 2 Troubled Investment Funds

LONDON (AP) -- HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe's largest bank, said Monday it will bail out two troubled funds it manages by transferring about $45 billion of their assets onto its balance sheet.

HSBC said it will also inject $35 billion into the two funds, Cullinan Finance Ltd. and Asscher Finance Ltd., in a move that will clarify responsibility for the funds and prevent liquidation of their assets.

The funds are "structured investment vehicles" or bank-sponsored businesses that sell short-term debt but have been operated off the bank's balance sheet.

The moves are another symptom of a global credit crisis which has forced up the cost of short-term lending.

HSBC shares fell 2.2 percent to 809.5 pence ($16.56) in midday trading Monday in London.

Structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, are bank-sponsored businesses that sell short-term debt -- such as unsecured commercial paper -- to investors such as hedge funds. The banks use the proceeds to buy longer-term assets, like mortgage-backed securities.

SIVs normally generate money through fees and the difference between short-term and long-term rates. But in August, demand for short-term assets dried up, creating liquidity problems for SIVs.

The viability of an SIV relies on its ability to continue borrowing money.

Amid this year's flight from risk, lenders in the commercial paper market have frequently balked at letting borrowers "roll over," or extend, their debt. This is what is happening to most of the world's roughly 30 SIVs, which collectively manage about $320 billion.

An SIV that cannot continue borrowing money would need to find cash elsewhere or sell its investments. Since mortgage debt has lost so much value -- some types of mortgage debt are selling at less than 20 cents on the dollar -- this would likely lead to losses for investors in SIVs.

Smaller banks including WestLB and Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg have previously agreed to buy the senior debt of SIVs managed by their affiliates to prevent having to sell assets at a loss.

Earlier this month, bankers from Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. announced an agreement on a multibillion-dollar fund to buy distressed debt securities.

HSBC, whose SIVs are among the largest in the market, said it would not be participating in that fund.

"As existing investors will continue to bear all economic risk from actual losses up to the full amount of their investment, HSBC expects no material impact to its earnings," the company said in an announcement to the London Stock Exchange.

HSBC said it will offer investors in Cullinan and Asscher the option to exchange their existing income and mezzanine notes for notes issued by one or more new vehicles.

Current senior debt holders of Cullinan and Asscher will be repaid as the debt falls due and will have the opportunity to reinvest in the commercial paper issued by the new vehicles, HSBC said.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Messages
24,692
Tokens
well might get a green day after all

usd:yen bottomed at 108 which is when the markets bottomed

nice spike down on yen in progress now

the dow 13k battle or thereabouts continues to rage on
 

New member
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
Messages
569
Tokens
Countrywide again heading lower into 8 dollar range.

deac, these books you are mentioning are repeating what ive been posting here since joining the site.

the investments havent really changed the past few years.

there is going to be an economic depression in the united states.

Wal-Mart draws huge crowd - of applicants

Those 6,000 people were competing for some 300 positions. That means for every one person hired, 19 people walked away empty-handed

Still, Wal-Mart was not his dream. His goal was to be an attorney.

Sherman said he used to work at Ford's Lorain Assembly Plant but lost that job when it closed. After that, he said, he enrolled at Cleveland State University and spent four years earning a law degree.

But after failing to pass the bar exam, he found himself not only out of the legal field, but out of work, period. Then he heard about the new store. Now he's in a supervisory role from which he said he could see himself retiring.

"After four years of law school, you, too, can work at Wal-Mart," Sherman said with a laugh. "Life's a funny thing. . . . You may actually be Mr. Wal-Mart until it's time for the old rocking chair."

Amy Hanauer, executive director of Policy Matters Ohio, said she finds these ratios "deeply troubling," reminiscent of bread lines in times of great poverty. She said the figures paint a bleak portrait of the regional job market and underscore the need for more and better employment opportunities.

"That's Depression-era kind of imagery," she said. ". . . You can't have an economy that works that way. It speaks to the need to generate a different kind of employment in Cleveland."

http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2007/11/thousands_apply_for_limited_jo.html
 

New member
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
Messages
569
Tokens
Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct

RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.

"We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

"The bigger they are, the harder they'll fall," he said in an interview with New York's Hudson Valley Business Journal.

Celente -- who forecast the subprime mortgage financial crisis and the dollar's decline a year ago and gold's current rise in May -- told the newspaper the subprime mortgage meltdown was just the first "small, high-risk segment of the market" to collapse.

Derivative dealers, hedge funds, buyout firms and other market players will also unravel, he said.

Massive corporate losses, such as those recently posted by Citigroup Inc. and General Motors Corp., will also be fairly common "for some time to come," he said.

He said he would not "be surprised if giants tumble to their deaths,"
Celente said.

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,118,650
Messages
13,558,015
Members
100,667
Latest member
amc8223
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com