Woofy:
I take back what I said about CFC not going bankrupt. I just caught a piece on nightline about how the company was ramping on short term profits using exotic loans. This company is the largest home lender in the U.S. and I can't believe the way it was being run. Terrible lending practices while the CEO just sold so much stock. It was an "inside job". I'm guessing that the odds are around 50/50 that CFC won't be around in 5 years.
I take back what I said about CFC not going bankrupt. I just caught a piece on nightline about how the company was ramping on short term profits using exotic loans. This company is the largest home lender in the U.S. and I can't believe the way it was being run. Terrible lending practices while the CEO just sold so much stock. It was an "inside job". I'm guessing that the odds are around 50/50 that CFC won't be around in 5 years.
yeah they came in and saved the markets today....it was about 5 mins too late for me though
so, I've got (or had) 28,000 shares of SIRI satellite. I never use stops, but the merger will be approved or dissaproved by the gov't soon, so I put a stop in at $3.40 last week, only because if it does not go thru stock goes into the 2's. stock has been holding up well, 70% chance IMHO
anyways it was at $3.58 early and I set about doing a small project. About an hour later I look and it is at $3.43 and I go to remove the stop and the fucking joos had already wiped it out. Next thing I know the prick is at $3.49 and here I sit now with my finger in my ass facing the prospect of having to buy in tommorow at $3.50, so a $3000 loss...BTW low on the day was $3.40:finger:
so, I've got (or had) 28,000 shares of SIRI satellite. I never use stops, but the merger will be approved or dissaproved by the gov't soon, so I put a stop in at $3.40 last week, only because if it does not go thru stock goes into the 2's. stock has been holding up well, 70% chance IMHO
anyways it was at $3.58 early and I set about doing a small project. About an hour later I look and it is at $3.43 and I go to remove the stop and the fucking joos had already wiped it out. Next thing I know the prick is at $3.49 and here I sit now with my finger in my ass facing the prospect of having to buy in tommorow at $3.50, so a $3000 loss...BTW low on the day was $3.40:finger:
hitman, as much of a kook as alot of people think i am, there are actually reasons behind why i have some of these ideas.
the only question is will the real estate bubble take the entire financial system down with it.
companies like countrywide went up too much for too long based upon what will someday (if not already) deemed a huge ponzi scheme.
the ratings agencies are also much to blame as they rated this shit top grade when it obviously shouldnt have been.
thus far, i am absolutely shocked the overall market has held up as much as it has considering the amount of bad news thats out here.
the market will be just fine with or without countrywide, but if institutions such as citigroup, fannie, and freddie continue cratering, its going to be a real mess.
i heard from a friend tonight whos father had his entire retirement savings in fannie mae paper. i pounded the table beginning in 2003 for him to liquidate and he finally did get him out in 2006.
boy is he ever thankful tonight. stories like this one are why i will enjoy doing what i do.
id say its 50/50 that countrywide will be out of business before 2009, not 5 years.
quite a few of the banks and especially mid sized regional banks are going to be bankrupted by their lack of understanding of the real estate bubble.
look at long term charts of banks such as FITB, KEY, NCC, WM.
when they fall like dominoes, they are bound to take a few large fish down also.
:drink:
the only question is will the real estate bubble take the entire financial system down with it.
companies like countrywide went up too much for too long based upon what will someday (if not already) deemed a huge ponzi scheme.
the ratings agencies are also much to blame as they rated this shit top grade when it obviously shouldnt have been.
thus far, i am absolutely shocked the overall market has held up as much as it has considering the amount of bad news thats out here.
the market will be just fine with or without countrywide, but if institutions such as citigroup, fannie, and freddie continue cratering, its going to be a real mess.
i heard from a friend tonight whos father had his entire retirement savings in fannie mae paper. i pounded the table beginning in 2003 for him to liquidate and he finally did get him out in 2006.
boy is he ever thankful tonight. stories like this one are why i will enjoy doing what i do.
id say its 50/50 that countrywide will be out of business before 2009, not 5 years.
quite a few of the banks and especially mid sized regional banks are going to be bankrupted by their lack of understanding of the real estate bubble.
look at long term charts of banks such as FITB, KEY, NCC, WM.
when they fall like dominoes, they are bound to take a few large fish down also.
:drink:
and to keep with the theme of crying in my beer to a bunch of strangers on a message board......back in AUG I had 15,000 shares of SIRI with about a 6K loss.....stock was at $2.81 so I go to buy more and hit the wrong key (hungover) and ended up selling them all....about 5 mins later its at $2.95 - next day $3.05 - next day $3.35 all the while i'm waiting for the bitch to come back down so I can re-enter. That little blunder cost me $14K.....just cursed with that fucking stock, but hoping Uncle Mel makes the pain go away soon
here is my own thinking regarding stocks such as freddie mac and fannie mae.
im going to closely watch these two stocks for a few more days and see what the tape tells us.
they probably do qualify as "too large to fail" and thus at a point, if you already own gold and silver, its worth a shot buying these as if they actually do go to zero, the entire financial system will almost certainly be melting down and thus gold and silver will be going through the roof.
i just see the govt doing everything possible to keep those two entities liquid and functioning.
the govt, fed, and wall street will continue lying, stealing, spinning, and printing whatever money they have to in order to keep the system from melting down.
regardless, not all these bank and mortgage related stocks that have been cratering for months are going to survive. i just see the govt caring alot less about regional banks and stocks such as mtg and pmi compared to fnm & fre.
believe i heard today that fre and fnm are involved with 40% of the 11 TRILLION $ mortgage market.
:smoking:
im going to closely watch these two stocks for a few more days and see what the tape tells us.
they probably do qualify as "too large to fail" and thus at a point, if you already own gold and silver, its worth a shot buying these as if they actually do go to zero, the entire financial system will almost certainly be melting down and thus gold and silver will be going through the roof.
i just see the govt doing everything possible to keep those two entities liquid and functioning.
the govt, fed, and wall street will continue lying, stealing, spinning, and printing whatever money they have to in order to keep the system from melting down.
regardless, not all these bank and mortgage related stocks that have been cratering for months are going to survive. i just see the govt caring alot less about regional banks and stocks such as mtg and pmi compared to fnm & fre.
believe i heard today that fre and fnm are involved with 40% of the 11 TRILLION $ mortgage market.
:smoking:
yeah starting to think my gold/oil collapse with markets prediction is wrong
recent action very ominous to say the least
dollar still going down a nudge tonight even with yen carry unwind going pretty good and oil and gold flat
this is not good (for the US i mean)
recent action very ominous to say the least
dollar still going down a nudge tonight even with yen carry unwind going pretty good and oil and gold flat
this is not good (for the US i mean)
plus the whole problem with saving shit like fre and fnm is we are 9 trillion in debt and we have no savings to speak of
we've become apathetic, lazy, complacent whatever word you wanna use while you have hard working masses rising up for the peasant ranks in emerging markets to pick up the slack
we've become apathetic, lazy, complacent whatever word you wanna use while you have hard working masses rising up for the peasant ranks in emerging markets to pick up the slack
Freddie Mac May Need to Raise $6 Billion to Stem Capital Slide
By James Tyson and Jody Shenn
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, may need to raise as much as $6 billion to bolster its capital amid the worst housing slump in at least 16 years.
The government-chartered company yesterday said it would seek more reserves in a ''large transaction,'' after reporting its biggest quarterly loss. The amount may be $5.5 billion to $6 billion, according to Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Howard Shapiro. Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller and Gary Gordon, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York, predict $5 billion.
''It's not going to be a small number,'' said Gordon, who is advising investors to refrain from buying more of the company's shares.
Freddie Mac said it may slash its 50-cent-a-share quarterly dividend as rising mortgage losses erode reserves to within $1 billion of the minimum set by regulators. Freddie Mac and the larger Fannie Mae have lost $57 billion in market value since December as home-loan defaults and foreclosures rise to records.
The company may sell preferred stock, which ranks above common shares, said Jim Vogel, head of so-called agency debt research at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee. Vogel said the company may issue $3 billion to $4 billion of the securities.
Freddie Mac ''almost in the immediate future'' will announce its plans, Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron said yesterday on a conference call with analysts and investors. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., both of New York, are advising the company.
'Remaining Flexible'
Freddie Mac ''hasn't set a specific amount of capital'' it will raise, spokesman Michael Cosgrove said. ''We're remaining flexible.'' Three years ago, Washington-based Fannie Mae sold $5 billion of the securities after its regulator said the company was ''significantly undercapitalized.''
Freddie Mac tumbled 29 percent yesterday, the biggest decline since its shares started trading in 1988, to $26.74. Fannie Mae fell 25 percent and is down 43 percent since Nov. 13, when Fortune magazine said the company's accounting may have masked credit losses. Fannie Mae Chief Financial Officer Stephen Swad said the company's accounting methods are accurate.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are among financial institutions seeking to shore up capital as their share prices tumble.
Armonk, New York-based MBIA Inc., the largest U.S. bond insurer, last month halted its share buyback after reporting its first ever loss. New York-based Citigroup Inc. also suspended its stock repurchases. Calabasas, California-based mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. sold $2 billion of preferred stock to Bank of America Corp. in August.
Fannie's Preferreds
Fannie Mae last week raised $500 million from the sale of preferred stock after reporting a third-quarter loss of $1.4 billion.
Rising expenses tied to bad loans reduced Freddie Mac's core capital cushion by two-thirds, leaving the company with just $600 million more than required by its regulator, it said in a statement yesterday. Freddie Mac's regulator has ordered the company to hold more in capital ever since it disclosed accounting mistakes in 2003. Fannie Mae must also hold excess capital because of its own errors.
''Whatever they do, however they structure it, they will have to do a pretty large capital raising,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director at New York-based research firm Graham Fisher & Co. Rosner said the amount may grow to $8 billion.
'Prudential Actions'
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the companies' regulator, endorsed Freddie Mac's plans to raise cash as ''prudential actions.''
Fannie Mae is paying a dividend rate of 7.625 percent on its most recent sale of preferred stock. Freddie Mac sold $500 million of preferred shares in September with a fixed dividend of 6.55 percent.
Troubles at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae may leave them with less money to buy new mortgages. The companies, created by Congress to foster American home ownership, own or guarantee 40 percent of the $11.5 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market.
''This is a disaster for the broader mortgage capital markets,'' said Shapiro, who yesterday recommended investors sell the shares. ''To the extent that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot grow, you are taking even more liquidity out of the markets.''
Freddie Mac's loss prompted Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings to place a ''negative'' outlook on the company's subordinated debt and preferred stock.
A preferred stock sale ''that would be meaningful to manage their capital comfortably would most likely result in a ratings downgrade,'' Vincent Arscott, a New York-based analyst for Fitch, said yesterday in an interview. ''They don't want to raise just enough, they want to have enough to have a cushion and we think that it will be meaningful enough to move the needle.''
Fitch may consider cutting the AA- rating if the ratio of preferred stock to regulatory core capital rises to 30 percent or more from the current level of 23.4 percent, Arscott said.
For S&P, if Freddie Mac raises preferred stock ''it's not going to be a ratings issue,'' S&P analyst Victoria Wagner said in an interview.
By James Tyson and Jody Shenn
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, may need to raise as much as $6 billion to bolster its capital amid the worst housing slump in at least 16 years.
The government-chartered company yesterday said it would seek more reserves in a ''large transaction,'' after reporting its biggest quarterly loss. The amount may be $5.5 billion to $6 billion, according to Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Howard Shapiro. Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller and Gary Gordon, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York, predict $5 billion.
''It's not going to be a small number,'' said Gordon, who is advising investors to refrain from buying more of the company's shares.
Freddie Mac said it may slash its 50-cent-a-share quarterly dividend as rising mortgage losses erode reserves to within $1 billion of the minimum set by regulators. Freddie Mac and the larger Fannie Mae have lost $57 billion in market value since December as home-loan defaults and foreclosures rise to records.
The company may sell preferred stock, which ranks above common shares, said Jim Vogel, head of so-called agency debt research at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee. Vogel said the company may issue $3 billion to $4 billion of the securities.
Freddie Mac ''almost in the immediate future'' will announce its plans, Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron said yesterday on a conference call with analysts and investors. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., both of New York, are advising the company.
'Remaining Flexible'
Freddie Mac ''hasn't set a specific amount of capital'' it will raise, spokesman Michael Cosgrove said. ''We're remaining flexible.'' Three years ago, Washington-based Fannie Mae sold $5 billion of the securities after its regulator said the company was ''significantly undercapitalized.''
Freddie Mac tumbled 29 percent yesterday, the biggest decline since its shares started trading in 1988, to $26.74. Fannie Mae fell 25 percent and is down 43 percent since Nov. 13, when Fortune magazine said the company's accounting may have masked credit losses. Fannie Mae Chief Financial Officer Stephen Swad said the company's accounting methods are accurate.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are among financial institutions seeking to shore up capital as their share prices tumble.
Armonk, New York-based MBIA Inc., the largest U.S. bond insurer, last month halted its share buyback after reporting its first ever loss. New York-based Citigroup Inc. also suspended its stock repurchases. Calabasas, California-based mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. sold $2 billion of preferred stock to Bank of America Corp. in August.
Fannie's Preferreds
Fannie Mae last week raised $500 million from the sale of preferred stock after reporting a third-quarter loss of $1.4 billion.
Rising expenses tied to bad loans reduced Freddie Mac's core capital cushion by two-thirds, leaving the company with just $600 million more than required by its regulator, it said in a statement yesterday. Freddie Mac's regulator has ordered the company to hold more in capital ever since it disclosed accounting mistakes in 2003. Fannie Mae must also hold excess capital because of its own errors.
''Whatever they do, however they structure it, they will have to do a pretty large capital raising,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director at New York-based research firm Graham Fisher & Co. Rosner said the amount may grow to $8 billion.
'Prudential Actions'
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the companies' regulator, endorsed Freddie Mac's plans to raise cash as ''prudential actions.''
Fannie Mae is paying a dividend rate of 7.625 percent on its most recent sale of preferred stock. Freddie Mac sold $500 million of preferred shares in September with a fixed dividend of 6.55 percent.
Troubles at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae may leave them with less money to buy new mortgages. The companies, created by Congress to foster American home ownership, own or guarantee 40 percent of the $11.5 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market.
''This is a disaster for the broader mortgage capital markets,'' said Shapiro, who yesterday recommended investors sell the shares. ''To the extent that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot grow, you are taking even more liquidity out of the markets.''
Freddie Mac's loss prompted Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings to place a ''negative'' outlook on the company's subordinated debt and preferred stock.
A preferred stock sale ''that would be meaningful to manage their capital comfortably would most likely result in a ratings downgrade,'' Vincent Arscott, a New York-based analyst for Fitch, said yesterday in an interview. ''They don't want to raise just enough, they want to have enough to have a cushion and we think that it will be meaningful enough to move the needle.''
Fitch may consider cutting the AA- rating if the ratio of preferred stock to regulatory core capital rises to 30 percent or more from the current level of 23.4 percent, Arscott said.
For S&P, if Freddie Mac raises preferred stock ''it's not going to be a ratings issue,'' S&P analyst Victoria Wagner said in an interview.
the only way oil could tank is when the us economy tanks, it takes all of asia along with it.
regardless, oil will remain in a bull market long term and as dollar continues falling, oil could still remain steady or continue rising with global stagflation.
regarding gold and silver, they are going much higher.
i still believe gold and the dow jones intersect at some point.
could be both at 2k, 5k, 10k, 50k, 100k, or a million. i dont know and dont really care right now how high it will go.
what i do know, is that precious metals are going higher relative to the stock market and all the worlds other currencies.
im pretty sure during the weimer germany years, the gold price quoted in german mark was 1.3 TRILLION per oz.
still a very long way to go with the precious metals and commodities bull market.
asia has a few BILLION people that simply are under supplied with the goods we here in america and europe take for granted.
as more of them buy cars, clothes, shoes, kitchen ware, tools, desks, furniture, its only going to send the demand and price for raw materials higher.
as govts around the world continue printing more and more fiat money, with a decreasing supply of precious metals to back this paper money, its scarcity will become relatively much less and this price is going much higher.
regardless, oil will remain in a bull market long term and as dollar continues falling, oil could still remain steady or continue rising with global stagflation.
regarding gold and silver, they are going much higher.
i still believe gold and the dow jones intersect at some point.
could be both at 2k, 5k, 10k, 50k, 100k, or a million. i dont know and dont really care right now how high it will go.
what i do know, is that precious metals are going higher relative to the stock market and all the worlds other currencies.
im pretty sure during the weimer germany years, the gold price quoted in german mark was 1.3 TRILLION per oz.
still a very long way to go with the precious metals and commodities bull market.
asia has a few BILLION people that simply are under supplied with the goods we here in america and europe take for granted.
as more of them buy cars, clothes, shoes, kitchen ware, tools, desks, furniture, its only going to send the demand and price for raw materials higher.
as govts around the world continue printing more and more fiat money, with a decreasing supply of precious metals to back this paper money, its scarcity will become relatively much less and this price is going much higher.
usd:yen breakin 109 to downside very very key level
this getting freaky
as for the above
just don't see commodities staying afloat if we undergo a massive global recession or go as far as the D word
china and india moving at light speed and will have so much overcapacity if we fall on our face hard'
india is silicon valley part deux but to a MUCH bigger proportion IMO
this getting freaky
as for the above
just don't see commodities staying afloat if we undergo a massive global recession or go as far as the D word
china and india moving at light speed and will have so much overcapacity if we fall on our face hard'
india is silicon valley part deux but to a MUCH bigger proportion IMO
I am pretty sure of one thing.....you will not see housing prices bounce back any time soon
I do think we are headed into a period hyperinflation, so that should limit any further major downside.....at least in the markets I track that have lost 30%-35% already. Maybe another 10%-15% in those markets, depending on severity of the recession
markets that are just getting in on the downside "fun"....yeah they got a long ways to go
planned deprectiation of the USD is very key
I do think we are headed into a period hyperinflation, so that should limit any further major downside.....at least in the markets I track that have lost 30%-35% already. Maybe another 10%-15% in those markets, depending on severity of the recession
markets that are just getting in on the downside "fun"....yeah they got a long ways to go
planned deprectiation of the USD is very key
