early indications gonna be a tough holiday for the retailers as expected.....i'm still in shock how dead the bars are in my town this semester....first hand accounts in my little area at places that "unnecessary" discretionary spending is prevalent is way down.....plus this has ripple effect as the bartenders and watresses working aren't getting much in the way of tips etc.
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Stores Ready, But Holiday Shoppers Will Wait
U.S. retailers are touting holiday deals and discounts earlier than ever this year, but the efforts may fall flat as consumers expect to start shopping for this crucial season later than ever, according to a survey released Tuesday by NPD Group.
Forty-one percent of survey respondents said they do not expect to begin their holiday shopping until after Thanksgiving -- 10 percent more than a year ago.
"Retailers are looking to start the season earlier but consumers just aren't ready," said NPD Chief Industry Expert Marshal Cohen in a statement.
Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, typically marks the launch of the ultra-competitive holiday shopping season. But many retailers have already introduced early holiday deals and started clogging mailboxes with gift guides, worried about the state of consumer spending headed into the end of the year.
Walmart began cutting prices on hot toys Sept. 30, while on Sept. 28, L.L. Bean began offering free shipping and handling to all customers through Dec. 21.
Home furnishing retailer Pottery Barn, a unit of Williams-Sonoma sent an e-mail on Sept. 28 inviting recipients to "be the first to shop our new holiday collections."
But the early efforts may not be enough to get shoppers into holiday shopping mode.
"The hesitation comes in because there isn't that one, must-have item, coupled with the fact that consumers are conditioned to expect deeper discounts as it gets later in the season ... where's the incentive to shop early?" Cohen said.
The survey was conducted between Sept. 10 and Sept. 17, and was based on information from 1,943 completed interviews.
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U.S. Retail Sales Rise at Slowest Pace in Five Months
By Heather Burke
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales in September increased at the slowest pace in five months as consumers limited spending, raising concerns results for the holiday season may be the worst since 2002.
Sales at stores open at least 12 months gained 2 percent from a year earlier, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities LLC said today in a preliminary statement. The increase was the smallest since same-store sales fell 1.9 percent in April and half the gain of September 2006.
Target Corp. cut its September sales growth prediction last month, while Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. lowered its profit forecasts for the year. A slump in housing sales and increased fuel costs limited clothing and home-goods purchases.
''Retailers need to be mindful going into the holiday season of the economic conditions that are affecting consumer- spending patterns and consequently have to have a strong marketing plan in place to win back consumer demand,'' ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira said in an interview.
September results were on the low end of the ICSC's sales growth forecast of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. Initially, the group expected 2.5 percent. Comparable-store sales advanced 4 percent in September 2006.
Higher Temperatures
Higher-than-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. slowed purchases of sweaters and hooded sweatshirts. Last month was the eighth-warmest September since 1895, according to Planalytics Inc., a weather-consulting firm.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, fell 25 cents to $45.02 as of 12:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Children's Place dropped $1.50, or 6.2 percent, to $22.82. The Standard & Poor's Retailing Index declined 0.8 percent and is down 2.4 percent this year.
Wal-Mart, Target and other retailers issue their monthly sales reports Oct. 11, while the U.S. government will release its monthly sales the next day.
U.S. sales in November and December probably will climb 4 percent this year, the slowest since a 1.3 percent gain in 2002, the National Retail Federation said last month.
Sales for the seven days through Oct. 6 climbed 2.1 percent from a year earlier, and were unchanged from the previous week, the ICSC and UBS said today.
Children's Place, the operator of the Disney Store clothing chain, today said third-quarter per-share earnings may be 60 percent less than its lowest forecast and fourth-quarter profit might be ''significantly'' below projections. Slow sales prompted markdowns at its Children's Place stores.
Target, Wal-Mart
Target, the second-biggest U.S. discount chain, cut its monthly sales forecast on Sept. 24, forecasting less than half of what it initially predicted, due to fewer customer visits. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. earlier this month lowered prices on some toys more than two weeks earlier than 2006, to lure customers.
Another retail sales survey showed a 1.8 percent gain last week from a year earlier. September sales climbed 2 percent, according to Johnson Redbook Index, and trailed its target for a 2.6 percent increase.
Both the ICSC and Johnson Redbook reports track same-store sales. Investors consider same-store sales a key measurement of a retailer's performance because it excludes locations that have recently opened or closed.
Most of the eastern part of the U.S. recorded temperatures 2 degrees to 6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal, the Wayne, Pennsylvania-based Planalytics said today in a report. Parts of the Northeast experienced record high temperatures in the last week.
Clearance Section
''We saw the greatest activity in the clearance section of most retailers, as this was where shoppers could find old summer carryover merchandise,'' Adrienne Tennant, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., wrote in a report yesterday. Tennant's team visited malls two days starting Oct. 6.
Consumer confidence dropped more than forecast in September to the lowest level in almost two years, hurt by falling home values, a deteriorating labor market and stricter borrowing standards, the New York-based Conference Board said Sept. 25. New-home purchase prices plunged in August by the most since 1970, the Commerce Department said Sept. 27.
The ICSC's September results are preliminary. The group will issue a final figure for the sales it tracks at 60 chains on Oct. 11.
Johnson Redbook measures same-store sales at general- merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 locations.
