Its not a matter of if,its a matter of how much.
The fed can either attempt to sustain the current US economys growth or try and rescue the sinking dollar.Cant do both at the same time.Now there are absolutely benefits to a weakened dollar (to think there isnt is pure ignorance) however I can not think of a silver lining to a major domestic recession at this particular time.The fact is the fed has been signaling for a while (not so vaguely) which one they intend to bolster.Brokers already have been factoring the cut into stock valuations.
I think youre in denial.
make that oil at 77.49 approaching all time high
Yep, they sure did. My bros. is a loan officer at CW. They're liquidating alot of positions in certain states, and in certain groups tasked for now defunct loan programs. Man it's fugly in real estate these days. Credit is seizing up tighter than Joe's sphincter. I'll leave it to you economy guys to sort out what that means, but it can't be good.
stagflation here we come, dollar 79.723, gold 712, read article that health insurence premiums up 6.1% last year outpacing inflation
middle america and lower class taking it in the arse here
UN warns of food price unrest
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Times
UN warns of food price unrest
By Javier Blas in Rome
Published: September 6 2007 18:57
Developing countries face serious social unrest as they struggle to cope with soaring food prices, inflation that shows no signs of abating, the United Nations' top agriculture official has warned.
Jacques Diouf, director-general of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, said surging prices for basic food imports such as wheat, corn and milk had the “potential for social tension, leading to social reactions and eventually even political problems”.
Mr Diouf said food prices would continue to increase because of a mix of strong demand from developing countries; a rising global population, more frequent floods and droughts caused by climate change; and the biofuel industry's appetite for grains.
“That combination of factors would most likely lead to increases in food prices,” Mr Diouf told the Financial Times in an interview.
Signs of the social unrest these prices could cause were seen in Mexico this year where mass protests were triggered by rising corn prices. Mr Diouf said food represented about 10-20 per cent of consumer spending in industrialised countries, but up to 65 per cent in developing nations.
“If we continue to see an increase in their [food] prices and in their import bill for food, there is a serious potential situation,” Mr Diouf said.
The warning comes as wheat prices are at a high, forcing developing countries such as India and Egypt to pay record prices for their food imports in what cereal traders described as “panic buying” to beef up reserves.
Wheat prices this week rose to a record $8.86 a bushel in Chicago, up about 60 per cent since January. Dairy product prices have also setting records, while other commodities, such as corn and soyabeans, are trading well above their historical averages.
Mr Diouf said although the biofuel industry directly increased the consumption of only a handful of agricultural commodities, such as corn and rapeseed, its effect spread to other food products because less acreage was devoted to non-biofuel crops and the cost of feeding livestock with grain was pushed up.
“The biofuel industry is a new factor creating demand for food for a non-food use,” he said.
Fears about the inflationary impact of biofuels on global food prices have prompted Cargill, the world's largest agricultural company by revenues, to question the White House-led push for an increase in ethanol production through tax subsidies.
middle america and lower class taking it in the arse here
UN warns of food price unrest
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Times
UN warns of food price unrest
By Javier Blas in Rome
Published: September 6 2007 18:57
Developing countries face serious social unrest as they struggle to cope with soaring food prices, inflation that shows no signs of abating, the United Nations' top agriculture official has warned.
Jacques Diouf, director-general of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, said surging prices for basic food imports such as wheat, corn and milk had the “potential for social tension, leading to social reactions and eventually even political problems”.
Mr Diouf said food prices would continue to increase because of a mix of strong demand from developing countries; a rising global population, more frequent floods and droughts caused by climate change; and the biofuel industry's appetite for grains.
“That combination of factors would most likely lead to increases in food prices,” Mr Diouf told the Financial Times in an interview.
Signs of the social unrest these prices could cause were seen in Mexico this year where mass protests were triggered by rising corn prices. Mr Diouf said food represented about 10-20 per cent of consumer spending in industrialised countries, but up to 65 per cent in developing nations.
“If we continue to see an increase in their [food] prices and in their import bill for food, there is a serious potential situation,” Mr Diouf said.
The warning comes as wheat prices are at a high, forcing developing countries such as India and Egypt to pay record prices for their food imports in what cereal traders described as “panic buying” to beef up reserves.
Wheat prices this week rose to a record $8.86 a bushel in Chicago, up about 60 per cent since January. Dairy product prices have also setting records, while other commodities, such as corn and soyabeans, are trading well above their historical averages.
Mr Diouf said although the biofuel industry directly increased the consumption of only a handful of agricultural commodities, such as corn and rapeseed, its effect spread to other food products because less acreage was devoted to non-biofuel crops and the cost of feeding livestock with grain was pushed up.
“The biofuel industry is a new factor creating demand for food for a non-food use,” he said.
Fears about the inflationary impact of biofuels on global food prices have prompted Cargill, the world's largest agricultural company by revenues, to question the White House-led push for an increase in ethanol production through tax subsidies.
OPEC trying to step in.....oil at 78.25 now oil markets don't care....just keep printing everything will be fine....bahhh....79.691 on dollar, dollar crash time soon?
OPEC to Boost Crude Output
Tuesday September 11, 1:37 pm ET
By William J. Kole, Associated Press Writer
OPEC Agrees to Boost Crude Oil Output by 500,000 Barrels a Day Amid High Prices
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC agreed late Tuesday to boost its crude output by 500,000 barrels a day in an effort to calm markets roiled by high oil prices and worried that supplies could grow tight by the end of the year.
The surprise move would take effect Nov. 1, the cartel said.
OPEC to Boost Crude Output
Tuesday September 11, 1:37 pm ET
By William J. Kole, Associated Press Writer
OPEC Agrees to Boost Crude Oil Output by 500,000 Barrels a Day Amid High Prices
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC agreed late Tuesday to boost its crude output by 500,000 barrels a day in an effort to calm markets roiled by high oil prices and worried that supplies could grow tight by the end of the year.
The surprise move would take effect Nov. 1, the cartel said.
No health insurance for you, only profits for them
------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070911/insurance_rising_premiums.html?.v=3
Since 2001, the cost of premiums has gone up 78 percent, far outpacing a 19 percent increase in wages and 17 percent jump in inflation.
"It just shows health insurance is becoming increasingly unaffordable for working people and many businesses in our country," he said.
That rising cost, coupled with the fact that it is outpacing inflation and wage growth, is pushing companies and employees to forgo insurance, Altman said. And that's why the number of uninsured Americans continues to rise, he said. The Census Bureau estimates 15.8 percent of Americans were uninsured last year, up from 15.3 percent the year before.
Health insurance companies continue to see higher profits, but premiums keep going up because costs rise each year, said Gary Claxton, vice president of Menlo Park, Calif.-based Kaiser. And much of that is because, through the years, the health care system produces more tests, procedures and products that can treat more people, and all of that costs more, he said.
Some 158 million people have health insurance through their employers. Sixty percent of companies offer health insurance to their employees, about the same as last year but down from 69 percent in 2000.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070911/insurance_rising_premiums.html?.v=3
Since 2001, the cost of premiums has gone up 78 percent, far outpacing a 19 percent increase in wages and 17 percent jump in inflation.
"It just shows health insurance is becoming increasingly unaffordable for working people and many businesses in our country," he said.
That rising cost, coupled with the fact that it is outpacing inflation and wage growth, is pushing companies and employees to forgo insurance, Altman said. And that's why the number of uninsured Americans continues to rise, he said. The Census Bureau estimates 15.8 percent of Americans were uninsured last year, up from 15.3 percent the year before.
Health insurance companies continue to see higher profits, but premiums keep going up because costs rise each year, said Gary Claxton, vice president of Menlo Park, Calif.-based Kaiser. And much of that is because, through the years, the health care system produces more tests, procedures and products that can treat more people, and all of that costs more, he said.
Some 158 million people have health insurance through their employers. Sixty percent of companies offer health insurance to their employees, about the same as last year but down from 69 percent in 2000.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070911/economy.html?.v=16
The improvements in the trade deficit this year have not satisfied critics of President Bush's trade policies, who contend that this administration has left American workers vulnerable to unfair competition from low-wage countries such as China. These critics say the soaring deficits have contributed to the loss of more than 3 million manufacturing jobs since 2000.
"Americans realize that our bloated trade deficit erodes our standard of living," said Teamsters President James Hoffa, whose union is leading a fight to overturn a Bush administration decision last week that opens up the nation's southern border to Mexican trucks.
"Opening the border to Mexico will just make it easier for multinational corporations to outsource, which will further undermine our middle class," Hoffa said.
For July, U.S. exports rose to 2.7 percent to an all-time high of $137.7 billion as sales of American farm goods, autos and auto parts and U.S.-made capital goods all set record highs.
Imports also rose to a record in July, climbing 1.8 percent to $196.9 billion. This increase was led by a 2.3 percent jump in petroleum imports, which hit $27.2 billion, the highest level in 11 months. The average price of a barrel of crude oil jumped to $65.56, the second-highest level in history. The record, according to Commerce Department measurements, was a $66.13 per barrel average in August 2006.
The boom in exports is helping cushion the U.S. economy from the adverse effects of the worst downturn in housing in 16 years and a serious credit crunch stemming from growing losses in subprime mortgages. Without continued export gains, some analysts worry that the country could be pushed into a recession.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
the bold basically meaning we must send dollar into the gutter
The improvements in the trade deficit this year have not satisfied critics of President Bush's trade policies, who contend that this administration has left American workers vulnerable to unfair competition from low-wage countries such as China. These critics say the soaring deficits have contributed to the loss of more than 3 million manufacturing jobs since 2000.
"Americans realize that our bloated trade deficit erodes our standard of living," said Teamsters President James Hoffa, whose union is leading a fight to overturn a Bush administration decision last week that opens up the nation's southern border to Mexican trucks.
"Opening the border to Mexico will just make it easier for multinational corporations to outsource, which will further undermine our middle class," Hoffa said.
For July, U.S. exports rose to 2.7 percent to an all-time high of $137.7 billion as sales of American farm goods, autos and auto parts and U.S.-made capital goods all set record highs.
Imports also rose to a record in July, climbing 1.8 percent to $196.9 billion. This increase was led by a 2.3 percent jump in petroleum imports, which hit $27.2 billion, the highest level in 11 months. The average price of a barrel of crude oil jumped to $65.56, the second-highest level in history. The record, according to Commerce Department measurements, was a $66.13 per barrel average in August 2006.
The boom in exports is helping cushion the U.S. economy from the adverse effects of the worst downturn in housing in 16 years and a serious credit crunch stemming from growing losses in subprime mortgages. Without continued export gains, some analysts worry that the country could be pushed into a recession.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
the bold basically meaning we must send dollar into the gutter
the trade is perfectly fair JoeC OUR corporations and the fed allow this trade to occur.....they the chinese are buying our bonds and treasuries with the funny money dollars we hand them for slave wage made lead tainted toys, anti-freeze laced toothpaste, and posioned dog food so we can continue to spend and print.....
Our corporations basically sold their soul to the the chinese.....Walmart used to be proud of "made in america"....Sam Walton is rolling in his grave....now i'm guessing 90% of what they sell is chinese made.
Our corporations basically sold their soul to the the chinese.....Walmart used to be proud of "made in america"....Sam Walton is rolling in his grave....now i'm guessing 90% of what they sell is chinese made.
Meanwhile, over in Red China...
China inflation spikes to near 11-year high
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21595be6-6014-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac.html
Don't piss on my boots and tell me it's rainin', hoz.
China inflation spikes to near 11-year high
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21595be6-6014-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac.html
Don't piss on my boots and tell me it's rainin', hoz.
oh the sheep in china are hurting too due to inflation but the big boy commies are raking in money hand over fist.........once it all unravels chinese sheep will be hit worse than US sheep.
Globally the lower, middle class are being fleeced by the powers that be this isn't just a US affair.
UK will be in for some fun too
-------------------------------------------------------------
Britain's Coming Credit Crisis
By Kerry Capell
Steep housing prices and a dependence on financial services make its economy vulnerable. Some predict a blow to credit might even be worse -- much worse -- than in the US.
Could any country be more exposed to the current credit crunch than the U.S.? You bet, and that place is Britain. Unlike most of its European neighbors, Britain shares many of America's financial traits-and problems. Access to cheap credit has fueled a decade of unprecedented growth, with home prices tripling over the past decade, a faster rise than in the U.S. Consumer spending has skyrocketed, now making up roughly two-thirds of the country's total outlays. And the overall economy in Britain is more dependent on financial services than it is in the States.
Add it all up, and "Britain is likely to suffer more severely than the U.S." if the current market turmoil continues, says Danny Gabay, director of Fathom Financial Consulting in London. How severely? Gabay and many other economists think annual growth in Britain could drop to about half the 3% or so it has clocked in recent years.
Roughly half of Britain's growth in the last 18 months has come from financial and business services-everything from accounting and legal advice to real estate. Together these sectors bring in 30% of Britain's national income, far more than in the U.S., says Peter Spencer, an economics professor at the University of York. If a fall-off in financial services were to put the brakes on leveraged buyouts, mergers, acquisitions, and offerings of credit derivatives, thousands of jobs could be lost, primarily at banks, brokerages, and other financial outfits, the Centre for Economics & Business Research Ltd. estimates.
As in the U.S., consumers are another key driver of the economy-and today they're among the most indebted in the world. British consumers owe $2.7 trillion on credit cards, mortgages, and other consumer loans-or more than the country's entire economic output. Household debt as a percentage of gross disposable income is 166%, compared with 127% in the U.S. So it's hardly surprising that in the past year, British banks have had to write off $18 billion in bad debts, mostly consumer borrowing.
Such write-offs could be just the beginning if housing prices start to fall. Despite little growth in incomes, consumer spending has remained strong as Britons have borrowed against the rising value of their homes. That shouldn't be a problem if housing prices climb an additional 40% over the next five years due to supply constraints, as predicted by the National Housing Federation, an affordable-housing advocate.
But some economists are less sanguine. With the average home now costing $370,000-roughly 11 times the average salary-housing is less affordable than at any time in the past 15 years. The latest data show house price inflation running at about 9.5% annually for the month of August, but the rate is starting to slow. And in Yorkshire, Wales, and other areas, prices are even falling. There are already signs of strain as homeowners start to feel the pinch of five consecutive interest-rate hikes, to 5.75%, in the past year. Foreclosures and personal bankruptcies are up by 30% in the first half of 2007, compared with the same period last year. Says Jamie Dannhauser, an economist at Lombard Street Research in London: "The pain is only going to get worse."
Although most believe that the Bank of England is unlikely to raise rates further anytime soon, the cost of servicing mortgages is expected to climb. That's because the crisis in the financial markets has raised the cost of borrowing for lenders, who will in turn pass on those costs to consumers, many of whom have adjustable rates. Subprime mortgage rates have risen by as much as 2.5 percentage points this summer. Although subprime debt accounts for about 10% of the market in Britain, compared with 25% in the U.S., the growing popularity of so-called self-cert loans, where buyers don't need to present proof of income, is on the rise. Some brokers estimate that they account for one-third of new mortgages issued in the past year.
It's clear it wouldn't take much to do significant damage to the two pillars of Britain's economy. Says Maurice Fitzpatrick, an analyst at tax advisory firm Grant Thornton in London: "Because so much of economic growth relies on consumer spending and the City of London, even a small event can have disproportionate consequences."
-------------------------------------------------------------
Britain's Coming Credit Crisis
By Kerry Capell
Steep housing prices and a dependence on financial services make its economy vulnerable. Some predict a blow to credit might even be worse -- much worse -- than in the US.
Could any country be more exposed to the current credit crunch than the U.S.? You bet, and that place is Britain. Unlike most of its European neighbors, Britain shares many of America's financial traits-and problems. Access to cheap credit has fueled a decade of unprecedented growth, with home prices tripling over the past decade, a faster rise than in the U.S. Consumer spending has skyrocketed, now making up roughly two-thirds of the country's total outlays. And the overall economy in Britain is more dependent on financial services than it is in the States.
Add it all up, and "Britain is likely to suffer more severely than the U.S." if the current market turmoil continues, says Danny Gabay, director of Fathom Financial Consulting in London. How severely? Gabay and many other economists think annual growth in Britain could drop to about half the 3% or so it has clocked in recent years.
Roughly half of Britain's growth in the last 18 months has come from financial and business services-everything from accounting and legal advice to real estate. Together these sectors bring in 30% of Britain's national income, far more than in the U.S., says Peter Spencer, an economics professor at the University of York. If a fall-off in financial services were to put the brakes on leveraged buyouts, mergers, acquisitions, and offerings of credit derivatives, thousands of jobs could be lost, primarily at banks, brokerages, and other financial outfits, the Centre for Economics & Business Research Ltd. estimates.
As in the U.S., consumers are another key driver of the economy-and today they're among the most indebted in the world. British consumers owe $2.7 trillion on credit cards, mortgages, and other consumer loans-or more than the country's entire economic output. Household debt as a percentage of gross disposable income is 166%, compared with 127% in the U.S. So it's hardly surprising that in the past year, British banks have had to write off $18 billion in bad debts, mostly consumer borrowing.
Such write-offs could be just the beginning if housing prices start to fall. Despite little growth in incomes, consumer spending has remained strong as Britons have borrowed against the rising value of their homes. That shouldn't be a problem if housing prices climb an additional 40% over the next five years due to supply constraints, as predicted by the National Housing Federation, an affordable-housing advocate.
But some economists are less sanguine. With the average home now costing $370,000-roughly 11 times the average salary-housing is less affordable than at any time in the past 15 years. The latest data show house price inflation running at about 9.5% annually for the month of August, but the rate is starting to slow. And in Yorkshire, Wales, and other areas, prices are even falling. There are already signs of strain as homeowners start to feel the pinch of five consecutive interest-rate hikes, to 5.75%, in the past year. Foreclosures and personal bankruptcies are up by 30% in the first half of 2007, compared with the same period last year. Says Jamie Dannhauser, an economist at Lombard Street Research in London: "The pain is only going to get worse."
Although most believe that the Bank of England is unlikely to raise rates further anytime soon, the cost of servicing mortgages is expected to climb. That's because the crisis in the financial markets has raised the cost of borrowing for lenders, who will in turn pass on those costs to consumers, many of whom have adjustable rates. Subprime mortgage rates have risen by as much as 2.5 percentage points this summer. Although subprime debt accounts for about 10% of the market in Britain, compared with 25% in the U.S., the growing popularity of so-called self-cert loans, where buyers don't need to present proof of income, is on the rise. Some brokers estimate that they account for one-third of new mortgages issued in the past year.
It's clear it wouldn't take much to do significant damage to the two pillars of Britain's economy. Says Maurice Fitzpatrick, an analyst at tax advisory firm Grant Thornton in London: "Because so much of economic growth relies on consumer spending and the City of London, even a small event can have disproportionate consequences."
That's true the central bankers make the rules/set the playing field not the corporations....that said no one told the corporations they had to sell their soul to the chinese in the name of short term cheaper production and more profits fleecing the American working class.
I just typed a long reponse and lost it ...FOCK:howdy:
Anyway getting back to Argentina, I have only been down here less then a year. Once I awakened to what is happening in America and what is to come I had to get out.
When the peso collapsed here it was a disaster. The locals tell me it was a living hell. It was better for those up here as opposed to the cities as rampant crime and violence everywhere as people became desperate as the cost of everything went through roof as peso collapsed. The banks frooze peoples accounts and then when they did finally allow them to access their funds it was only worth 1/4 of what it used to. Farmers could not feed their farm animals. Kids would pass out at school from being underfed. People lost their homes and had to beg and scrumb through garbage to try and survive. People tell me it all happened so fast.. there was no time to react or be prepared. It caught everyone blindsided. Riots and looting everywhere. Law of the jungle applied. No police to come and help you. Not a pretty picture.
Things have recovered nicely the past few years and crime has fallen. People have their freedom and have been able to rebuild. Cost of living down here is very low.
When the planned collapse of USD occurs it will be much worse and worldwide take place as global Depression. America has 400 million guns, a hijacked government, braindead kool-aid drinkers:drink: that will be begging for Marshall Law after the ***terrorists***:howdy: strike again. Its hard to imagine how bad it will be but imagine New Orleans x1000 and we might get an idea. There will likely be a revolution. Patriots vs kool-aid drinkers/hijacked government/UN forces.
But hey what do I know...I'm just a conspriracy kook.
Just ignore me and go back to the TV and let them tell you have the economy is strong and Osama is back with his dyed beard and is about to sign a 5 year year deal to do "Just for Men" commercials. He is trying to appeal to the younger generation of Al-CIAda extremists.
