sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

546 down on japs

closed friday at 13861 now 12779 or 7.8% drop overall, bout 30% drop in japan since us peaked out in october

we'll see how china holds up tonight (they on deck in hour or so) they might panic, aussie down about 5% now

dow futures starting to roll over some again 11600, or ~500 point drop since friday

as for DAW making money i'm not sure PMs i think are gonna get completely slaughtered tomorrow too not sure how heavy he is into them

as for me i won't be making as much as i should as i covered some shorts (about 15% of them) late last week betting on a bounce

bears usually get everybody

 

[tiznow]

japan down 612 no bottom yet

 

[GreenDoberman]

Tommorrow will be a big day for the U.S. markets. Should indicate what level of support market will get as it declines. Not great to celebrate when people are losing their money, but good to see the sharp ones on here that saw it coming will be vindicated.

 

[tiznow]

Tommorrow will be a big day for the U.S. markets. Should indicate what level of support market will get as it declines. Not great to celebrate when people are losing their money, but good to see the sharp ones on here that saw it coming will be vindicated.

well everybody shouldn't be on the same side of the trade tell people to wisen up (which is the point of my rants by the way)

don't shoot the messanger

in gambling do you feel sorry for the 90% of people that are on one side of the bet while you are on the 10% minority and win your wager?

just so sick and tired of people treating the stock market like this safe haven that is gonna grow at 8-10% annually, don't be a sheep and buy into the systems brainwashing

the reality of the stock market is simply this....its a big casino biased to the upside due to inflation treat it as such

643 on japan yikes

 

[tiznow]

think yen trying to find a top here (meaning good for markets)

and dow futures trying to base as well granted they down 500 since monday

granted i'm typically a good fade on minute to minute market movements so....

just listen to me long term

we'll see what the rest of asia brings us

still got china and india on tap with their gigantic p/es

taiwan leading the way in asia tonight so far down 6.1%

^AORD All Ordinaries 5,322.60 8:02PM ET Down 308.30 (5.48%) Components, Chart, More
^SSEC Shanghai Composite 4,914.44 2:00AM ET Down 266.08 (5.14%) Chart, More
^HSI Hang Seng 23,818.86 4:59AM ET 0.00 (0.00%) Components, Chart, More
^BSESN BSE 30 17,605.35 5:28AM ET 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
^JKSE Jakarta Composite 2,485.88 5:38AM ET 0.00 (0.00%) Components, Chart, More
^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,439.49 Jan 18 Down 21.22 (1.45%) Components, Chart, More
^N225 Nikkei 225 12,730.02 7:42PM ET Down 595.92 (4.47%) Chart, More
^NZ50 NZSE 50 3,543.75 7:42PM ET Down 103.16 (2.83%) Components, Chart, More
^STI Straits Times 2,786.46 12:02PM ET Down 130.69 (4.48%) Components, Chart, More
^KS11 Seoul Composite 1,611.10 8:02PM ET Down 72.46 (4.30%) Components, Chart, More
^TWII Taiwan Weighted 7,615.39 8:02PM ET Down 494.81 (6.10%) Chart, More

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

He was joking...and siad it was going to remain UNCH...Get it closed

Yeah, I got it after I decided to read the second half of his sentence.

 

[tiznow]

major battle in the dow futures markets at 11600

 

[tiznow]

looks like futures markets really making 11575 the line in the sand to the downside

stuck in 11575-11600 range for now, yen selling starting to get going some more now

just blasted up through 11600 as i type

japan bottoming for now

that might be all the blood that's in store till us open

regardless it should not be fun either way but "crash" chances decreasing IMO

 

[Hitman26]

Tizzy:


"Don't shoot the messanger" is ok but when you go to a casino do you see someone who is playing the don'ts on the crap tables jump up and down when the shooter 7 outs and tell them how stupid they were and how smart the messanger was to be on the don'ts?


It's ok to cheer for yourself when you win but to cheer for others to lose isn't considered kosher and is just all around bad karma. But hey you are the wise man right now and if you want to rub it in the other "losers" faces is your right as a winner.


So know that tomorrow 90% of us will be losers and that you will be in the 10% winners so have a dance, tell us how we are all brainwashed sheep, and take great joy in knowing that you are at the top of the hill.

 

[tiznow]

yen selling just got frantic now

think we reached a bottom for now and europe may be green on tuesday after 5-7% smackdown on tuesday

anyway we heading much lower longterm regardless of what tomorrow brings, its all noise

bear markets play with your emotions....

 

[GreenDoberman]

good post by Tiz and good follow-up and analogy by Hitman.

I'm that guy playing the don't at the dice table, but that doesn't mean I'm jumping up and down at the 7 out. Solid analogy.

 

[tiznow]

Tizzy:


"Don't shoot the messanger" is ok but when you go to a casino do you see someone who is playing the don'ts on the crap tables jump up and down when the shooter 7 outs and tell them how stupid they were and how smart the messanger was to be on the don'ts?


It's ok to cheer for yourself when you win but to cheer for others to lose isn't considered kosher and is just all around bad karma. But hey you are the wise man right now and if you want to rub it in the other "losers" faces is your right as a winner.


So know that tomorrow 90% of us will be losers and that you will be in the 10% winners so have a dance, tell us how we are all brainwashed sheep, and take great joy in knowing that you are at the top of the hill.

you miss the point

bottom line we are entering a new bear market (well i put probability on that to be extremely high i place bets whether it be on markets or horses or whatever based on probabilities that i devise from my own personal research) if you want to fight it and live in denial than that is your choice

but don't whine to bears who called it right and told you what was coming when it does indeed fall

for instance i can guarantee you.we're gonna have 90% of this forum coming in here and bashing me for my predicitions if the markets turn on a dime and launch to 16k or whatever and this turns out to be some sort of nasty correction (low probability in my mind)

 

[tiznow]

uh oh!! put those bounce thoughts on hold...told you i'm a horrific short term indicator

china down 6.58%....after 5% on monday

now put on crash alert

yen seems to be less an indicator of global markets right now people getting panicky

 

[Hitman26]

Tizzy:



Have you ever been wrong about anything in your entire life?



Stocks don't return 10% every year, thats an average. Some years down, some years flat. This year is looking down, so what? I would never sell my long term stocks because some poster on a message board tells me that we are going to have a down year. I buy and hold for the long term. By the way, since you are so good and are able to know what the markets are going to do with such great certainty, why aren't you on wall street making 8 figures a year? Hell I would even give you 10k of my money because with your calls you should be able to double it every 3 years.



Tizzy, what has to happen in the current markets for you to lose money? I've never seen you say you had a bad day in the market. What do you own and what are you short? Just give me your top 10 holdings or shorts so I can root with you. I want to see what a genius such as yourself is betting on and against.


If you don't mind
Thanks

 

[tiznow]

okay tiznow short term indicator plays its role once again china bouncing some now down 5.8%

anyway i gotta run for a while i'll be back before bed to see where things stand

 

[tiznow]

Tizzy:



Have you ever been wrong about anything in your entire life?



Stocks don't return 10% every year, thats an average. Some years down, some years flat. This year is looking down, so what? I would never sell my long term stocks because some poster on a message board tells me that we are going to have a down year. I buy and hold for the long term. By the way, since you are so good and are able to know what the markets are going to do with such great certainty, why aren't you on wall street making 8 figures a year? Hell I would even give you 10k of my money because with your calls you should be able to double it every 3 years.



Tizzy, what has to happen in the current markets for you to lose money? I've never seen you say you had a bad day in the market. What do you own and what are you short? Just give me your top 10 holdings or shorts so I can root with you. I want to see what a genius such as yourself is betting on and against.


If you don't mind
Thanks

of course i've been wrong look at my short term predictions in general :nohead:

here's the deal i saw this trouble brewing for many years as i saw bubbles forming but i didn't participate in it plus gold was gonna outperform so why bother

tops of bubbles are hard to call in general

from 2003-2006 i was a heavy PM bull

i did try to short the equity markets here and there (not a ton) and did get burnt when i did

once housing collapse finally became clear as day to me (back when they were saying housing would be contained blah blah i knew at that moment the end was very near)

as for portfolio i'll just say as it stands now

as of right now i have 15% physical gold, 20% conservative longs that pay dividends i think are somewhat recession proof that i don't think will go under regardless and will fall much less than the froth i am short (such as beer companies, cigarette companies, water companies, utility companies, crap that people will buy regardless of what the economy is doing), 45% short, and 20% cash.

as for what shorts i have a wide variety, a good deal probably half of them are proshares that are leveraged shorts that are in various sectors

most recently on monday i got in DUG which is short oil and gas companies as the oil market looked very toppy to me and i felt that oil consumption would dry up now that we are heading for a recession

of course i'm not right all the time, thus reason i'm hedged, but at the same time my overall portfolio lives and dies by what my shorts do at this point in time

this was also the case from 2003-2006 but in the realm of PMs

i'm a hedged moderate term investor (well more appropriate term gambler) and always will be

 

[tiznow]

one more before i run for a while

here's a quote i found on a another forum for all the non deflationists out there (like DAW and jdog)

granted note the date as well so we shall see

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Wall Street Journal: A quote from 1993

"History shows that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy, there can be no recovery until the excess debt is eliminated. Political efforts to expand debt do nothing to lift the burden of debt service, which is the cause of slow growth and faltering incomes in the first place.

"Too many people have become complacent about deflation. But watch out. Debt has grown too large to be sustained out of cash flow. As soon as the balance sheet is depleted, a deeper crisis of asset liquidation will catch the world by surprise."

Source: James Dale Davidson, The Wall Street Journal, 1993

 

[thegambler711]

Anyone know when the stock market prop is posted at 5dimes? I would be really interested to see what the number is tonight. I would think it has to be -200 or greater. It probably will not even be posted tonight.

 

[cussin'it]

one more before i run for a while

here's a quote i found on a another forum for all the non deflationists out there (like DAW and jdog)

granted note the date as well so we shall see

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Wall Street Journal: A quote from 1993

"History shows that once nominal growth slows in a heavily indebted economy, there can be no recovery until the excess debt is eliminated. Political efforts to expand debt do nothing to lift the burden of debt service, which is the cause of slow growth and faltering incomes in the first place.

"Too many people have become complacent about deflation. But watch out. Debt has grown too large to be sustained out of cash flow. As soon as the balance sheet is depleted, a deeper crisis of asset liquidation will catch the world by surprise."

Source: James Dale Davidson, The Wall Street Journal, 1993

Sounds like tax increase time is a comin'

:sad3:

 

[BetIt]

Tue 1/22 1 Dow Up Tuesday +185
0:30AM (EST) 2 Dow Down Tuesday -235