sell! sell! sell!

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

the euro bloodbath early

gotta give out a roar to my asian and euro bears

^ATX ATX 3,760.51 3:27AM ET Down 137.77 (3.53%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 3,603.33 3:46AM ET Down 91.80 (2.48%) Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 4,941.17 3:46AM ET Down 151.23 (2.97%) Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,118.82 3:27AM ET Down 195.35 (2.67%) Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 437.33 3:46AM ET Down 12.75 (2.83%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 462.07 3:28AM ET Down 11.56 (2.44%) Components, Chart, More
^MIBTEL MIBTel 26,421.00 3:46AM ET Down 489.00 (1.82%) Components, Chart, More
^IXX ISE National-100 90.13 Jan 18 Down 0.39 (0.43%) Chart, More
^SMSI Madrid General 1,470.00 Jan 18 Down 13.94 (0.94%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 304.01 3:45AM ET Down 6.08 (1.96%) Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,501.76 3:46AM ET Down 190.22 (2.47%) Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,760.40 3:46AM ET Down 141.30 (2.39%) Components, Chart, More

Brooklynbomber · Jan 21, 2008

Black Monday as biggest FTSE crash since 9/11 wipes off nearly £60bn in shares

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

europe off 5% across the board on monday :scared:

US better hope it stablizes on tonight

or tuesday could get SUPER ugly

---------------------------------------------------------------

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="first">^ATX</td><td class="second name">ATX</td><td>3,712.61 11:36AM ET</td><td>

185.67 (4.76%)</td><td class="last">Components, Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^BFX</td><td class="second name">BEL-20</td><td>3,492.48 12:07PM ET</td><td>

202.65 (5.48%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^FCHI</td><td class="second name">CAC 40</td><td>4,744.45 12:10PM ET</td><td>

347.95 (6.83%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^GDAXI</td><td class="second name">DAX</td><td>6,790.19 11:45AM ET</td><td>

523.98 (7.16%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^AEX</td><td class="second name">AEX General</td><td>422.45 12:07PM ET</td><td>

27.63 (6.14%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^OSEAX</td><td class="second name">OSE All Share</td><td>442.79 10:29AM ET</td><td>

30.84 (6.51%)</td><td class="last">Components, Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^MIBTEL</td><td class="second name">MIBTel</td><td>25,606.00 11:40AM ET</td><td>

1,304.00 (4.85%)</td><td class="last">Components, Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">
</td><td class="second name">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="last">
</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^SMSI</td><td class="second name">Madrid General</td><td>1,365.13 11:40AM ET</td><td>

104.87 (7.13%)</td><td class="last">Components, Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^OMXSPI</td><td class="second name">Stockholm General</td><td>297.93 11:45AM ET</td><td>

12.16 (3.92%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^SSMI</td><td class="second name">Swiss Market</td><td>7,287.14 11:31AM ET</td><td>

404.84 (5.26%)</td><td class="last">Chart, More</td></tr><tr><td class="first">^FTSE</td><td class="second name">FTSE 100</td><td>5,578.20 11:35AM ET</td><td>

323.50 (5.48%)</td><td class="last">Components, Chart, More</td></tr></tbody></table>

cussin'it · Jan 21, 2008

Fuck.

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

yeah this is getting interesting (well scary probably a better word i honestly don't want to see a D but i figured it was a possiblity) cuzz

great depression part 1 was a global event

we'll see what tonight brings in asia and europe

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

dow futures settled at 11586 after the asian/europe blood bath

we closed monday at 12099

as for all the hyperinflationary bugs

gold and oil got slaughtered too

and dollar rallied to 77

got cash?

run on the banks on tuesday?

:monsters-

cussin'it · Jan 21, 2008

Sizable run to cash seems the norm these days. Gambling ain't for the weak of heart (no welching chickens allowed).

A great many MORE buying opportunities will be abundant in short order.

Buy, buy, buy. Or Bye, Bye.

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

india was down 7.4% so much for my thinking they might be immune

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

yen carry continuing to unwind a bit further as markets take a breather awaiting asia open

yen the strongest currency followed by USD right now

no bounce (stop to the yen carry trade unwind) yet

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

well this is starting to get freaky

nother big move up on the yen front

europe and japan at this rate could be down 10% on average (the last two days mon and tues) before us opens on tuesday

best "crash" scenerio i've seen setup to date (plus the fact that me and some other bears i know pulled a small portion of our shorts off the table looking for a near term bounce is a good indicator as well aka the bears were even looking for a dead cat bounce)

we shall see how they respond tonight

eek. · Jan 21, 2008

You've got to be careful with the financials when they nosedive because the results are based on ESTIMATED losses, not realised losses.

What they do is:

Sub Prime book $20 billion

Estimated bad debt on sub primes $15billion

So profit for year fooked.

Share Price nosedives.

BUT

The REAL writeoffs/losses end up being $7billion and the other +8billion gets restated as a prior year event and the profits bounce back bigtime because of a tasty $8 billion bonus.

You have to estimate this chit yourself if you're a stockchaser, its a nice legal way of depressing the share price of a good financial sector company, and things bounce back bigtime afterwards.

They did it during that savings and loans bustup in the 1980s.

MIMS · Jan 21, 2008

People need to calm the fuck down about a downturn and just start buying for the long haul. Especially at 11500 or 11000 which is where we are headed

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

MIMS said:
People need to calm the fuck down about a downturn and just start buying for the long haul. Especially at 11500 or 11000 which is where we are headed

that's what they said after the first market crash that started great depression part 1

:smoker2:

i don't know where a LONG TERM bottom will be reached and it will be a choppy up and down ride to reach it

but in my estimation 11000 is no where near close to it

sub 10k pretty much a given at some point in the next few years in my mind

VaultedTreehouse · Jan 21, 2008

Don't underestimate the role of reflation if they cut like crazy. If they kill the dollar, in nominal terms the market can be kept alive. If they don't do that and actually take their medicine. 7000 or lower seems right.

MIMS · Jan 21, 2008

tiznow said:
that's what they said after the first market crash that started great depression part 1

:smoker2:

i don't know where a LONG TERM bottom will be reached and it will be a choppy up and down ride to reach it

but in my estimation 11000 is no where near close to it

sub 10k pretty much a given at some point in the next few years in my mind

And I'll still be buying sub 10k. Would you relax a little bit? The Great Depression was simply a recession that was exacerbated by the biggest mistake in the history of monetary policy. Unless you are 50+ and nearing retirement, which you might be, people should relax a little and keep buying as the market dips.

On the other hand, if you are nearing retirement, yeah I would be a little nervous.

MIMS · Jan 21, 2008

Vaulted Treehouse said:
Don't underestimate the role of reflation if they cut like crazy. If they kill the dollar, in nominal terms the market can be kept alive. If they don't do that and actually take their medicine. 7000 or lower seems right.

Come on, you want to provide support for that 7000 number or did you just pull that out of your ass?

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

MIMS said:
And I'll still be buying sub 10k. Would you relax a little bit? The Great Depression was simply a recession that was exacerbated by the biggest mistake in the history of monetary policy. Unless you are 50+ and nearing retirement, which you might be, people should relax a little and keep buying as the market dips.

On the other hand, if you are nearing retirement, yeah I would be a little nervous.

yeah our monetary policy that allowed people to use their homes as ATMs wasn't a big mistake

waging wars in nations to hunt down a few crazies and unstablizing regions and getting no return on investment isn't a big mistake

derivatives, SIVs, CDOs ticking time bombs that these banks took on which is the backbone of our pyramid scheme economy isn't a big mistake

:nopityA:

VaultedTreehouse · Jan 21, 2008

MIMS said:
Come on, you want to provide support for that 7000 number or did you just pull that out of your ass?

Many bear markets get down to 50% lower. The Naz in 2003 had gotten down what 78%.

Read a great chart analyst who said one trend line went back that far. I'll try and find it for you.

tiznow · Jan 21, 2008

Vaulted Treehouse said:
Don't underestimate the role of reflation if they cut like crazy. If they kill the dollar, in nominal terms the market can be kept alive. If they don't do that and actually take their medicine. 7000 or lower seems right.

the markets already pricing in a 50 bp cut on jan 30th

fed i'm guessing likely come in with an emergency cut tomorrow if europe and asia keep tanking

it won't do any good long term though

they cut to zero than what?

when the house of cards folds everybody runs and flys to cash

they cut from 6.25% to 1.25% during 2000-2002 it did no good

MIMS · Jan 21, 2008

Vaulted Treehouse said:
Many bear markets get down to 50% lower. The Naz in 2003 had gotten down what 78%.

Read a great chart analyst who said one trend line went back that far. I'll try and find it for you.

A. There's a difference between the Nasdaq and the DOW
B. Nasdaq PE ratios were superinflated in 2000/2001.