obviously RE can be good in spot areas we are talking overall economy here
lakeside homes will likely hold up the best
as the rich still probably gonna be rich no matter what
high end goods (designer shoes, bags, etc) are still selling like hot cakesm even at inflated prices, the middle class is feeling the crunch here big time and being whipped out
the house I rent right now......even if I were to put 50% down ($325K), my mortgage payment would be $1000 more a month than my rent
when people ask me when a good time to buy again will be....I show them the above example. When you are able to put 20% down, and your payment is equal to or less than the rent on same house, that will be the time. It's all about fundementals.
why in the hell would you want to "own" a home that is still depreciating, when you can rent it for half the price?
not to mention the lost opportunity of the down payment when commodities are going nuts...its a no brainer
when people ask me when a good time to buy again will be....I show them the above example. When you are able to put 20% down, and your payment is equal to or less than the rent on same house, that will be the time. It's all about fundementals.
why in the hell would you want to "own" a home that is still depreciating, when you can rent it for half the price?
not to mention the lost opportunity of the down payment when commodities are going nuts...its a no brainer
by the way jdog and DAW
you think ben comes with intermetting rate cut or not?
have till jan 30th to wait if not
think they might cut 1/4 intermeeting and 1/2 at meeting now
jan 28th bush state of union address will be working hard on a "stimulus" package
me thinks we fall for next week or two than see a bear shake near end of month as the calvary gives everybody a sense of hope
you think ben comes with intermetting rate cut or not?
have till jan 30th to wait if not
think they might cut 1/4 intermeeting and 1/2 at meeting now
jan 28th bush state of union address will be working hard on a "stimulus" package
me thinks we fall for next week or two than see a bear shake near end of month as the calvary gives everybody a sense of hope
Perhaps youve lived in your house for awhile and this 'depreciation' isnt really applicable to your bottom line.According to zillow my home dropped 6k last month.Nows it valued at 369000 from a max of 399000 about a year and half ag
n paper it looks horrible but the fact that I bought it at 189000 and retain an enormous amount equity certainly would offset any fear about moving if I felt like a change in scenery or a nicer home at a discounted price.The fact is its not a good market for flippers but someone willing to move in and live in the house for an extended period of time will absolutely recoup whatever value his house loses during this downturn-esp now where many homes have been radically devalued already.Perhaps youve lived in your house for awhile and this 'depreciation' isnt really applicable to your bottom line.According to zillow my home dropped 6k last month.Nows it valued at 369000 from a max of 399000 about a year and half ag
devalued you mean market correcting as prices were to high and a bubble :think2:
plus be sure you're living in a quality constructed home
alot of these cooky cutter mcmansions they threw up the past 3-4 years were low quality garbage, on tiny portion of land in which you could spit on your neighbors home from your window, cost cutting was extremely rampant
people were just flipping like mad cause everybody else, if you got stuck with several homes at the top you got scroomed, quality of the home constrution and the land it was on was the least of their concerns
:monsters-
WOW
I'm assuming you mean nominally
DAW - when you say houses are a depreciating asset, you must mean compared to gold right? because that is the only thing they are depreciating against (but not by much)
I actually did a really good comparison last year between the price of gold and houses, from 1971 on, that is real interesting. I'll post it later. Busy day
there will be bear shakes in the housing market but i agree with DAW it is far from the ultimate bottom
me thinks in early 09 housing will undergo a bear shake based on a previous chart I posted about ARM resets and when alot are and aren't happening
here's the chart
looks like late 2008 early 2009 arm resets really slow down
but than pick back up again
based on this chart we could see bottom 61-63 months from nov of 2006 or early 2012
granted this is only a housing chart and takes no outside economic factors into consideration but food for thought
me thinks in early 09 housing will undergo a bear shake based on a previous chart I posted about ARM resets and when alot are and aren't happening
here's the chart
looks like late 2008 early 2009 arm resets really slow down
but than pick back up again
based on this chart we could see bottom 61-63 months from nov of 2006 or early 2012
granted this is only a housing chart and takes no outside economic factors into consideration but food for thought
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If we have year-over-year 10+% inflation and homes are flat, its still a depreciating trainwreck. We could see overall cost increases throughout the economy coupled with nominal decreasing home prices.
Owning a house, after considering all costs involved should be a depreciating asset.
Will there be particular areas that appreciate? Yes, but thats not going to be the general rule.
How is a house different than owning a car? Each has a limited life. I can keep a car on the road for 300-500k miles if I continue spending money to repair and routine maintenance.
People easily understand and believe that as soon as they drive a new car off the lot its depreciating, but dont think the same about a house. Why?
Gold is currently in a bull market...it wont always be, but for now, its in the best asset class to own (commodities). People should always keep some of their wealth in precious metals.
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If we see gold bars on time mag cover, that would be strike one, but there will be other signs we'd need to confirm an overall bubble in precious metals. I still dont see PM on most peoples' radar.
The day will arrive that we will be net sellers of gold and silver.
i'm just kinda scared cause of the cult following international sales could keep them afloat who knows
and like my friend said right now you got people buying iphones for 400 in the US, unlocking them, and selling them to foreigners for 1000 dollars on ebay
i think he's right there are easier targets on the short side in the end
looks like markets finding a base here right after i post my bear photo
:lol:
bear fun maybe over for the day
lets see if they can break upward outta the range they've been in since 10:30 eastern
12600 looks like the line in the sand for bully to get a rally going of some sort
looking ahead
doesn't look like much of interest in AH
data tomorrow
Jan 16 8:30 AM CPI Dec - 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Jan 16 9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Nov - NA NA $114.0B -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec - -0.4% -0.2% 0.3% -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec - 81.1% 81.2% 81.5% -
Jan 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/12 - NA NA -6736K -
Jan 16 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book - - - - - -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - 1160K 1150K 1187K -
and on earnings front tomorrow we got a couple of investment banks
we got jp morgan JPM estimate .93 per share profit estimate
and wells fargo (was heavy into subprimes) WFC .41 per share profit estimate
doesn't look like much of interest in AH
data tomorrow
Jan 16 8:30 AM CPI Dec - 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Jan 16 9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Nov - NA NA $114.0B -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec - -0.4% -0.2% 0.3% -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec - 81.1% 81.2% 81.5% -
Jan 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/12 - NA NA -6736K -
Jan 16 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book - - - - - -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - 1160K 1150K 1187K -
and on earnings front tomorrow we got a couple of investment banks
we got jp morgan JPM estimate .93 per share profit estimate
and wells fargo (was heavy into subprimes) WFC .41 per share profit estimate
well failed to take out the upper end of the range we've been in, now do we break down out of the range for more bear fun before the day is out, or so we just stay range bound all day and wait for tomorrow's data and earnings
lets see if aapl leads the markets down outta this raange, cutting through to new lows on the day now
i just realized i'm already short aapl via qid anyway :lolBIG:
lets see if aapl leads the markets down outta this raange, cutting through to new lows on the day now
i just realized i'm already short aapl via qid anyway :lolBIG:
