what does that have to do with japan and the exchange rate
the lower it falls the less japan gets for its exports
on top of the fact that they export most of their stuff to the US
and consumer is dieing at the same time
and they've had problems with their domestic consumer for decades
receipe for disaster in japan
--------------
anyway
lets see if we double bottom on the daily's or plow to new lows
This cut/paste is for THEJDOG
As housing slumps, realtors quit
<!-- BEGIN STORY BODY --> By Patrik Jonsson
ATLANTA - After three years showing houses in Atlanta's hilly suburbs, Dee McMahon is finished with real estate.
Yanking up her custom-made "For Sale" signs in her North Lake neighborhood rattled her ego, she admits. But when Ms. McMahon closed her final sale, a house in Snellville, Ga., in late November, the mother of two felt a swell of relief.
"Now I can finally get my own house back together," she says. "I'm nervous about the future, but I feel happy."
McMahon is one of thousands of real estate agents across the US wandering with mixed emotions and uncertain prospects through the debris of a real estate gold rush.
As many train for new careers, return to old ones, or wait tables until prices rebound, the plight of the real estate agent – average age, 51 – reveals the human dimension of how loose lending, raw opportunity, and self-determination produced a housing bust that has stunned the US economy.
"They've tasted success and big money, and now their standard of living has been rocked and reality has set in," says John Baen, a real estate professor at the University of North Texas in Denton. "The whole [economy] has been built on real estate. When the music stops, what is left?"
Americans are still drawn to working in real estate, according to the National Association of Realtors, which says its membership rose this year to 1.35 million. That growth in the ranks may be attributed to unaffiliated agents scrambling for clout in a tough market rather than an indication that the total number of agents is rising, the NAR acknowledges.
Evidence is growing that agents, especially in hard-hit markets like Florida, California, and Georgia, are closing up shop in large numbers, experts say.
Here in Atlanta, the number of agents letting their licenses lapse is growing at a faster pace than the number of overall licenses held. Nationally, an average agent's income dropped from $49,300 to $47,900 between 2004 and 2006. Not helping that trend is the cold fact that, according to Standard & Poor's house price index, home prices dropped precipitously in 2007, breaking the record 6.1 percent annual decline in 1991.
In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, real estate agents are "dropping out" daily, says local realtor Ginette Young. The Oregon Association of Realtors reports an 11.5 percent decline statewide of licensed agents in the past year.
Many of those who leave quietly shelve their signs. Others go out big: In Gilbert, Ariz., the fastest-growing city in the fastest-growing state, RE/MAX 2000 closed 13 offices throughout the Valley of the Sun, laying off at least 20 employees and scores of contract agents right before Christmas. The company couldn't meet its expenses.
Real estate is a line of work filled with mothers returning to the workforce, older workers squeezed out of lifetime careers, and young opportunists looking to trade sweat equity for potentially big cash-outs. Indeed, the industry norm is that only 4 percent of agents choose real estate sales as a first career.
In Georgia, realty ranks had swelled to 48,000 at the peak of the market. In the end, many say, there were too many inexperienced agents hawking houses.
"There's a lot of money being spent [on real estate classes] teaching agents how to waste a year of their life," says Atlanta agent Sandy Koza. "Then you get a downturn and a bunch of people get bumped. To [experienced agents like] us, it cleans out the business a little bit."
Florida's Cape Coral, a canal-sliced beach community, saw 800 building permits a month fall to 25 to 30 in the past year. The rapid slowdown left real estate agents, investors, and brokers holding the bag on big-money deals.
"It's a gold-rush mentality," says Michael Davis, an economist at Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business in Dallas. He has been struck by how many agents, brokers, and investors, acting against conventional wisdom of portfolio management, converted large percentages of cash holdings into only a single and somewhat risky investment: property. "I don't know whether they're ignorant or optimistic, perhaps a little of both," says Dr. Davis.
Many others became the foot soldiers in the housing boom, second- or third-careerists drawn to the self-determination, relatively low entrance costs, and perhaps even the allure of the trade as embodied by novelist Richard Ford's legendary character Frank Bascombe, an angst-driven realtor who wanders the Jersey Shore for deals and revelations.
A former computer developer, Thomas Banecke of Sandy Springs, Ga., spent most of the summer baby-sitting a new condo development – usually a plum assignment. But when the Atlanta condo market tanked, foot traffic dwindled to almost zero.
Mr. Banecke is now back in the computer business and is putting his real estate career on hold. In some ways, he says, the cold housing market forced real estate agents, especially rookies, to confront their own abilities, schemes, and dreams. Upfront costs, marketing, association fees, and the crucial contacts are either more costly or harder to procure than an aspiring real estate agent usually expects, Banecke says.
"This kind of thing will wipe up a whole bunch of people who thought they could do this to make a living," he says.
As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher.
One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. California is waiting to hear on a $9 million federal retraining grant after 6,000 people lost their jobs in the housing industry since September.
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
-------------------------
THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE WILL NOT HAVE COMPLETED ITS DOWNWARD SPIRAL UNTIL WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO LOOK IN THE PHONE BOOK TO FIND A REALTOR. MOST OF US TODAY PROBABLY KNOW SEVERAL WITHOUT HAVING TO THINK MUCH ABOUT IT.
:realtongu
As housing slumps, realtors quit
<!-- BEGIN STORY BODY --> By Patrik Jonsson
ATLANTA - After three years showing houses in Atlanta's hilly suburbs, Dee McMahon is finished with real estate.
Yanking up her custom-made "For Sale" signs in her North Lake neighborhood rattled her ego, she admits. But when Ms. McMahon closed her final sale, a house in Snellville, Ga., in late November, the mother of two felt a swell of relief.
"Now I can finally get my own house back together," she says. "I'm nervous about the future, but I feel happy."
McMahon is one of thousands of real estate agents across the US wandering with mixed emotions and uncertain prospects through the debris of a real estate gold rush.
As many train for new careers, return to old ones, or wait tables until prices rebound, the plight of the real estate agent – average age, 51 – reveals the human dimension of how loose lending, raw opportunity, and self-determination produced a housing bust that has stunned the US economy.
"They've tasted success and big money, and now their standard of living has been rocked and reality has set in," says John Baen, a real estate professor at the University of North Texas in Denton. "The whole [economy] has been built on real estate. When the music stops, what is left?"
Americans are still drawn to working in real estate, according to the National Association of Realtors, which says its membership rose this year to 1.35 million. That growth in the ranks may be attributed to unaffiliated agents scrambling for clout in a tough market rather than an indication that the total number of agents is rising, the NAR acknowledges.
Evidence is growing that agents, especially in hard-hit markets like Florida, California, and Georgia, are closing up shop in large numbers, experts say.
Here in Atlanta, the number of agents letting their licenses lapse is growing at a faster pace than the number of overall licenses held. Nationally, an average agent's income dropped from $49,300 to $47,900 between 2004 and 2006. Not helping that trend is the cold fact that, according to Standard & Poor's house price index, home prices dropped precipitously in 2007, breaking the record 6.1 percent annual decline in 1991.
In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, real estate agents are "dropping out" daily, says local realtor Ginette Young. The Oregon Association of Realtors reports an 11.5 percent decline statewide of licensed agents in the past year.
Many of those who leave quietly shelve their signs. Others go out big: In Gilbert, Ariz., the fastest-growing city in the fastest-growing state, RE/MAX 2000 closed 13 offices throughout the Valley of the Sun, laying off at least 20 employees and scores of contract agents right before Christmas. The company couldn't meet its expenses.
Real estate is a line of work filled with mothers returning to the workforce, older workers squeezed out of lifetime careers, and young opportunists looking to trade sweat equity for potentially big cash-outs. Indeed, the industry norm is that only 4 percent of agents choose real estate sales as a first career.
In Georgia, realty ranks had swelled to 48,000 at the peak of the market. In the end, many say, there were too many inexperienced agents hawking houses.
"There's a lot of money being spent [on real estate classes] teaching agents how to waste a year of their life," says Atlanta agent Sandy Koza. "Then you get a downturn and a bunch of people get bumped. To [experienced agents like] us, it cleans out the business a little bit."
Florida's Cape Coral, a canal-sliced beach community, saw 800 building permits a month fall to 25 to 30 in the past year. The rapid slowdown left real estate agents, investors, and brokers holding the bag on big-money deals.
"It's a gold-rush mentality," says Michael Davis, an economist at Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business in Dallas. He has been struck by how many agents, brokers, and investors, acting against conventional wisdom of portfolio management, converted large percentages of cash holdings into only a single and somewhat risky investment: property. "I don't know whether they're ignorant or optimistic, perhaps a little of both," says Dr. Davis.
Many others became the foot soldiers in the housing boom, second- or third-careerists drawn to the self-determination, relatively low entrance costs, and perhaps even the allure of the trade as embodied by novelist Richard Ford's legendary character Frank Bascombe, an angst-driven realtor who wanders the Jersey Shore for deals and revelations.
A former computer developer, Thomas Banecke of Sandy Springs, Ga., spent most of the summer baby-sitting a new condo development – usually a plum assignment. But when the Atlanta condo market tanked, foot traffic dwindled to almost zero.
Mr. Banecke is now back in the computer business and is putting his real estate career on hold. In some ways, he says, the cold housing market forced real estate agents, especially rookies, to confront their own abilities, schemes, and dreams. Upfront costs, marketing, association fees, and the crucial contacts are either more costly or harder to procure than an aspiring real estate agent usually expects, Banecke says.
"This kind of thing will wipe up a whole bunch of people who thought they could do this to make a living," he says.
As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher.
One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. California is waiting to hear on a $9 million federal retraining grant after 6,000 people lost their jobs in the housing industry since September.
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
-------------------------
THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE WILL NOT HAVE COMPLETED ITS DOWNWARD SPIRAL UNTIL WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO LOOK IN THE PHONE BOOK TO FIND A REALTOR. MOST OF US TODAY PROBABLY KNOW SEVERAL WITHOUT HAVING TO THINK MUCH ABOUT IT.
:realtongu
yeah but they are a 2/3 the size = 33% price increase
Kellogs announced (quietly) last week they were reducing the size of their cereal by 8% with no change in price.
this has been going on with foods for years, but has gotten really bad last 2 years.....to the point to where it is getting obvious to the lemmings.
2009 the year of hyperinflation.....MUCH worse then a depression
From the article.........
In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, real estate agents are "dropping out" daily, says local realtor Ginette Young.
:finger::missingte:WTF:
anything like that going on in your neck of the woods jdog.
the real estate bubble that ended in 2005 will be written about in history books as one of the largest bubbles and busts of all time.
In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, real estate agents are "dropping out" daily, says local realtor Ginette Young.
:finger::missingte:WTF:
anything like that going on in your neck of the woods jdog.
the real estate bubble that ended in 2005 will be written about in history books as one of the largest bubbles and busts of all time.
Food inflation is here for sure.
Makes me sick that the government went and forced ethanol down our throats. The farmers where I'm from haven't had it better in decades and my main fund hold MOS, POT, and MON as 1,2, and 3 in its holdings. Just 15 years ago the farmers that didn't go out of business were only worth what their land was worth, and that wasn't much at the time.
So 100 dollar oil was the main problem ( or a close second to sub primers) IMO, but how the gov dealt with it was asinine.
Makes me sick that the government went and forced ethanol down our throats. The farmers where I'm from haven't had it better in decades and my main fund hold MOS, POT, and MON as 1,2, and 3 in its holdings. Just 15 years ago the farmers that didn't go out of business were only worth what their land was worth, and that wasn't much at the time.
So 100 dollar oil was the main problem ( or a close second to sub primers) IMO, but how the gov dealt with it was asinine.
deflation is worse for wealthy people...not many places for them to prevent their wealth from evaporating. during inflation, wealthy people can invest in precious metals, foreign currencies, and other commodities.
inflation is worse for people already living in poverty, working poor, and much of middle class, for they cannot do anything to profit from the inflation, whereas wealthy people can do plenty to benefit during inflation.
these reasons are why we know which road the govt if given options, the us govt will choose the inflation route.
inflation is worse for people already living in poverty, working poor, and much of middle class, for they cannot do anything to profit from the inflation, whereas wealthy people can do plenty to benefit during inflation.
these reasons are why we know which road the govt if given options, the us govt will choose the inflation route.
deflation ain't good for anybody when you are 9 trillion in debt
poor or wealthy or anywhere in between
only the few that were savers and not debt slaves survive the situation
as for where to invest the smart money shorts anything and everything in that situation
too many economic bears think we are gonna see hyperinflation end game, main reason i slightly side on that of deflation
i don't know the answer other than US heading for a nasty recession regardless of what the end game is
japan saw deflation out the arse after their housing went
up and have been fighting it for a decadeI didnt post deflation was great for anybody...you seem to have a habit of putting your thoughts into others' posts.
However, deflation would hurt wealthy more than poor since they are more likely than poor people to own homes, businesses, and other assets.
If someone only has zero assets what do they lose during deflation.
:drink:
Which scenario would be best for a teenager or young college student? Deflation or inflation/hyperinflation? I would think deflation is better for them .
agreed....the sheep always pile on at the end.
here in California it was crazy. you've heard all the stories.....guy at the drive-thru in taco bell talking about his 6 new houses sitting empty that he was going to sell in a year for 30% more - 25% of the cars with a magnetic realtor or broker sign on them.....
not to sound racist at all, but I had a rental home in predominantly black area of town. decent area, lower middle class, most had shitty credit so were forced to rent, but I never had a problem collecting
around 2003 I noticed my renters and all the neighbors were suddenly driving 50K SUV's with 10K rims....this is what first got my wheels turning there may be a problem. Around 2004 my renters wanted to buy the home, and had said they could arrange financing. my friend owned a rental next door and reported the same from his renters......it dawned on me it was time to sell.....but i was waiting for the elusive Time or Newsweek magazine cover about how great RE was. That came in summer of 2005 and the rest is history. About a year later the foreclosure signs started to appear in that area.
DAW - what would you do if Time had a stack of gold bullion bars on their cover next week?
umm they don't have a home, money, or a job and are standing in line at soup kitchens? :think2:
cash is king in deflation
the wealthy definetely feel the pinch but at least they own something like the roof over their head as the economy is in a depression
what if they dont have a job today and are already living at a homeless shelter?
are you aware there are plenty of people living under these conditions.
i still think deflation for those types is better than inflation.
a guy living under a bridge can beg for spare change and buy himself a can of soup and a bottle of wine regardless whether or not he seeks shelter and food from society.
if his meal and wine rises from a few bucks to 50 bucks, thats alot of change to get from people and people struggle to across the board think in relative terms during inflation. i still know people that think its crazy to pay $3 for a gallon of gas but totally think its normal for home prices to have increased multiple fold the past 20 years.
where is this across the board deflation you keep posting about going to come from during a dollar crash?
was at a poker game at a friends house SAT night.....one of the guys was crying the blues about being upside down over 100K on an "investment home" and was trying to sell but there are literaly ZERO buyers out here
my buddy the host's young wife, who surprise surprise is a realtor, consoled him and said not to worry, The Big Rebound starts in two months. I casually mentioned now is a terrible time to buy a home....she looked at me incredulously and almost screamed "NOW IS A FANTASTIC TIME TO BUY A HOME"
this has a long ways to go folks
my buddy the host's young wife, who surprise surprise is a realtor, consoled him and said not to worry, The Big Rebound starts in two months. I casually mentioned now is a terrible time to buy a home....she looked at me incredulously and almost screamed "NOW IS A FANTASTIC TIME TO BUY A HOME"
this has a long ways to go folks
jdog, I had the same type of conversation with a cousin of mine who lives in orange county sunday evening.
he gave the same type of reply..."great time to buy".
i asked him based on what? he didnt have an answer.
thats probably for his son is a realtor and he knows that when he cant sell anything he and his wife and grandkids are going to be at his doorstep with their hands out.
agree that we have a long way to here with real estate downward spiral. 10 year minimum bear market and imho 15-20 years, but will have to see.
if the fed tricks either dont work or they pull the cord and it collapses 75% or more drop...it would recover sooner.
however, thats not the scenario i see happening..they will print money until the trees are gone trying to delay the pig from going to slaughter, but the fact remains the pig is going to the slaughterhouse regardless.
he gave the same type of reply..."great time to buy".
i asked him based on what? he didnt have an answer.
thats probably for his son is a realtor and he knows that when he cant sell anything he and his wife and grandkids are going to be at his doorstep with their hands out.
agree that we have a long way to here with real estate downward spiral. 10 year minimum bear market and imho 15-20 years, but will have to see.
if the fed tricks either dont work or they pull the cord and it collapses 75% or more drop...it would recover sooner.
however, thats not the scenario i see happening..they will print money until the trees are gone trying to delay the pig from going to slaughter, but the fact remains the pig is going to the slaughterhouse regardless.
1 in 50 californians were licensed real estate agents at the peak
alot of "jobs" going poof
:smoker2:
yeah in general alot of people are living in complete denial, and the problem is there really is nothing many can do quickly to reverse their situation, they just got stuck and have to pray its pretty sad when you think about it
Hey guys, I know there are some really successful people in this thread, I need some help. My buddy is owed a considerable amount of money from someone on the sports side of things. This individual has plenty of money and spends a lot of his time posting in blogs and making a nice living in his career. My friend cannot afford to pay this guys tab, in fact, is having extreme marital problems and professional embarrassment over the issue. This person has not answered phone calls or emails in weeks. I know it would be preferable to resolve this matter in a discrete way, but at this point my friend is out of ideas. It is really a slap in the face when you have a person with plenty of dough that just doesn't want to pay, then to see this guy out on public blogs seemingly carefree really makes the matter disconcerting. My friend covered this guy because of his financial security and always paid him monies that were due, and now is in the position of begging and borrowing to cover even a portion of the monies due. Anyone have any suggestions on what one can do to make this person see the light to take care of his responsibilty
