sell! sell! sell!

[Dawoofdaddy]

tiznow follows the bob prechter deflation across every and all asset classes school of thought and people following that school of thought really couldnt have been more wrong the past 5 years.

i like tiznow the king bear but the govt has particular incentives and ability to print money indefinitely and thats what they have already made clear both written and spoken they are going to do.

helicopter ben...what more do people need to hear to wonder which approach the fed will use.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

tiznow follows the bob prechter deflation across every and all asset classes school of thought and people following that school of thought really couldnt have been more wrong the past 5 years.

i like tiznow the king bear but the govt has particular incentives and ability to print money indefinitely and thats what they have already made clear both written and spoken they are going to do.

helicopter ben...what more do people need to hear to wonder which approach the fed will use.

honestly, I am hoping Tiz is right....it is much much better that way for this nation. maybe he is taking an optimistic approach to it. I am not

btw - aapl a great short imo....also tiz you asked about a furniture corp.....first thing that came to mind yesterday was WSM....down 10% today LOL

 

[tiznow]

i wasn't in that school of thought till recently

commodities would boom as long as the demand kept growing

people

take the average price of a home in the country

look at it as a commodity

they are adding more money supply okay

well why are prices falling!!!!!!!

cause SUPPLY IS HIGH AND DEMAND IS LOW

a US home contains 400 pounds of copper on average do you think copper prices will keep skying!!??

obviously on the commdity front the supply demand picture is more hazy cause its GLOBAL and not just a US related issue

look i'm not a gold bear and probably never will be as this unwinds i hold a good amount of physical and will likely load up on more if we see a big drop

people flock to gold when times get tough

but i am a oil bear currently and not too bullish on other commodities in general

due to my expectations for demand to shrink greatly!!

factories will close, people will stop driving less, take less vacations etc etc.

as for throwing money around

what the fuck does ben do when we hit 0% and the economy doesn't respond?

see japan for the answer

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

if we were operating with a gold standard there is little doubt tiz ideas about deflation would happen and bubbles such as nasdaq late 90s and real estate would have never happened in the first place.

however, with helicopter ben in the pilot seat and all the unfunded liabilities facing the govt, why wouldnt they continue printing money.

its not going to be across the board inflation or price increases in all asset classes.

things such as wages and homes are going to relatively deflate while things such as energy, food, and other commodities are going to relatively inflate.

overall what it means is a decrease in the average americans standard of living.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

look i'm not a gold bear and probably never will be as this unwinds i hold a good amount of physical and will likely load up on more if we see a big drop

people flock to gold when times get tough

but i am a oil bear currently and not too bullish on other commodities in general

due to my expectations for demand to shrink greatly!!

as for throwing money around

what the fuck does ben do when we hit 0% and the economy doesn't respond?

see japan for the answer

As far as people flocking to gold...i have bad news for them. If they dont get in soon, they arent going to get in. There isnt much supply around for them and people that hold gold arent going to sell just because price doubles. Gold has more than 3x increased since I entered earlier this decade and I havent sold a single ounce. It could double tomorrow and I still wouldnt sell a single ounce.

Oil. I agree if demand tanks, the price could fall, but what if dollar also continues tanking? In that scenario, the price we here in America pay per gallon will not fall, and in fact could skyrocket.

Japan? You are only looking at the bust and not the hyperinflation they first went through prior to their deflationary bust.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

Japan was an anamoly IMHO - first time anything like that has happened in modern times I think

however, it did happen, so I suppose could happen here as well

until I see some sustained demand destruction globally throughout the commodity classes, which frankly hasn't happened yet, I'm not buying it

I don't consider gold a commodity either

 

[tiznow]

As far as people flocking to gold...i have bad news for them. If they dont get in soon, they arent going to get in. There isnt much supply around for them and people that hold gold arent going to sell just because price doubles. Gold has more than 3x increased since I entered earlier this decade and I havent sold a single ounce. It could double tomorrow and I still wouldnt sell a single ounce.

Oil. I agree if demand tanks, the price could fall, but what if dollar also continues tanking? In that scenario, the price we here in America pay per gallon will not fall, and in fact could skyrocket.

Japan? You are only looking at the bust and not the hyperinflation they first went through prior to their deflationary bust.

yeah gold could moonshot and oil tanks at same time i could definitely see that scenerio, i really don't know as, gold is such a finicky thing to predict on the demand side of things

and some of it depends on if people lose FAITH in fiat as this unwinds too

fiat is based on faith, if its lost than your right gold is going parabolic

 

[tiznow]

Japan was an anamoly IMHO - first time anything like that has happened in modern times I think

however, it did happen, so I suppose could happen here as well

until I see some sustained demand destruction globally throughout the commodity classes, which frankly hasn't happened yet, I'm not buying it

I don't consider gold a commodity either

something in me thinks we could be talking about the USD carry trade down the road

:scared:

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Average family in Japan also had (may still have I dont know) the equivalent of 100k savings in bank when their stock market and real estate bust began.

So comparing japan to the us identically is very flawed imho.

Japan was also a net exporting economy and we are not.

The situation here in us more closely resembles argentina 2002 than anything else I can think of.

Late tape is also showing commodity stocks being thrown into the fireplace.

 

[tiznow]

anyone got a super long term chart of gold vs. yen?

 

[tiznow]

Average family in Japan also had (may still have I dont know) the equivalent of 100k savings in bank when their stock market and real estate bust began.

So comparing japan to the us identically is very flawed imho.

Japan was also a net exporting economy and we are not.

The situation here in us more closely resembles argentina 2002 than anything else I can think of.

Late tape is also showing commodity stocks being thrown into the fireplace.

everything getting thrown in the fireplace today

viscous bears take no prisoners!!

i looked at that AUY chart last night reeked of near term top with a gap up huge volume long black candle

 

[tiznow]

tiz all those things you mentioned are a result of inflation....not the cause

as such a fervent supporter of Dr Paul, I am a bit dissapointed you do not share his views on this subject

that is also why we do not completely see eye to eye on the next 1-24 months in the economy....although we both agree what the final results will be.

as for ron paul i think he COULD have the endgame wrong

as that majority that see a disaster coming side with hyperinflation

you see gobs and gobs of books on hyperinflation end game but only a few voices talking deflation

the conspiracist in me thinks its a ploy to get the financial bears stuck too heavy on the commodity side as everything gets completely whipped out

with only shorts surviving

he's right our system allows these bubbles to form and people get whipped out cause of it

and a TRUE gold standard does not allow sheep to get sheered by vast amounts of bad credit

regardless of what the ulimate endgame is its not gonna be pretty

 

[tiznow]

alright bear fun over for today

somebody trying to bottom feed

 

[tiznow]

over at pru bear somebody said 3 million futures contracts dumped on one bid

wowzers

 

[Brooklynbomber]

oh tiz....

so, due to the fact that:

3% of the public sees deflation

9% see hyperinflation

56% see this as a minor correction "nothing to see here move along"

32% don't know

that means that the commodity bulls are going to get wiped out and the deflationary call is the true contrarian one:missingte

DAW - hope you made a few bucks on that Charger game....they sure tried to steal it away

 

[tiznow]

its not strictly contarian obviously i have reasoning behind it

as i conveyed to you before

the global economy is just to complex for me to make that prediction at this point in time

we need to see how asia holds up through all this on the demand side of things

if china and india fall on their face for example

my only prediction i really feel confident in at this point in time is the US is heading for a nasty recession

its much easier shorting froth like AMZN in that scenerio than trying to figure out gold (which i own) and other stuff

although i am dabbling in some oil shorts currently

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

UA Under Armour down more than 10% today.

Hitman at what level of price decrease would you finally sell that one?

 

[tiznow]

over at pru bear somebody said 3 million futures contracts dumped on one bid

wowzers

if this is true i'm amazed we falling back off into close

:nopityA:

double dose of the bear today :scared:

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

solar stocks being cutoff at the knees after getting everyone in on the trade.

whats next shoe to fall? maybe some of these agriculture stocks.

C down 7.5% today and people are still scratching their heads wondering when bottom will arrive.

 

[tiznow]

this might get ugly

yen carry unwind today was viscous

japan already has fallen over 20% from the highs

anyway peace out for now