sell! sell! sell!

[PatsFan1283]

Only way Mars makes any sense beyond rich people doing it cause they can.. Or a exit escape plan for end of humanity on earth.. is if they can find a way to terraform the planet..

resources wasted on life support systems would be huge..

Colonizing mars basically the flying cars of this generation. Something we gotta tell ourselves is possible when we can't even improve transport or energy efficiency at a rapid rate.

What do you think of the AI? Way down the line it just seems impossible that doesn't get in the wrong hands and there is a terminator like creature causing destruction in Times Sq.

 

[snoop]

ConocoPhillips will hand out another 1800 pink slips next month, most of the cut will be in the US, 500 in Houston headquarter alone.

The entire industry is in death spiral, at least for 2-3 years.

 

[PatsFan1283]

CNBC just hilarious at this point. Every single time the market goes down 2% or more they have a "special" at 7pm.

Here is a hint: Your specials aren't so special.

 

[tiznow]

ConocoPhillips will hand out another 1800 pink slips next month, most of the cut will be in the US, 500 in Houston headquarter alone.

The entire industry is in death spiral, at least for 2-3 years.

Yeah beyond the big guys.. gonna take time for all the purging of the fed fueled fracking boom to bust... OPEC will protect downside to some extent as we saw yesterday... May see 20-30 or something if this coming global recession gets really nasty but doubt it stays there very long... open guys budgets can't make it on 20-30 barrel very long.. Ripple in jobs beyond the oil guys directly huge housing suppliers etc..

on the other side of the likely coming recession now that the frackers have learned their lessons opec will start constraining and take it back up..

price instability in anything everything the new fed fueled way!! Bubble bust bubble bust weeeeee

will be interesting to see how bad it gets this leg down.. Fed pretty powerless and studies have show each round of QE increasingly ineffective.. May just have to let it go busto... Once and for all so we can finally get a true recovery on the other side.. Vs smoke and mirrors recovery nonsense

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah beyond the big guys.. gonna take time for all the purging of the fed fueled fracking boom to bust... OPEC will protect downside to some extent as we saw yesterday... May see 20-30 or something if this coming global recession gets really nasty but doubt it stays there very long... open guys budgets can't make it on 20-30 barrel very long.. Ripple in jobs beyond the oil guys directly huge housing suppliers etc..

on on the other side of the likely coming recession now that the frackers have learned their lessons opec will start constraining and take it back up..

It hit 38 last week and the correction right now is nothing. If we got a real leg down in S&P to like 13-1400 then oil would probably hit $25-30 since that would likely mean China in very bad recession.

Like 1/3rd of junk bond market is fracking debt so tough to say how that would unfold.

So many dominoes these days

Deflation is a more dangerous D word than death, lol

 

[tiznow]

Still can't comprehend how these Ivy League inbred thought wise economists think they can control the economic cycle.. Their interference just causing more problems long term..

busts are just part of the natural cleansing of the system ... people take risks sometimes they lose.. they learn their lessons... Continuously propping and giving everybody a huge credit line to live beyond their means for 15+ years as we have done now.. only logically makes matters worse long term ... But what do I know

 

[tiznow]

It hit 38 last week and the correction right now is nothing. If we got a real leg down in S&P to like 13-1400 then oil would probably hit $25-30 since that would likely mean China in very bad recession.

Like 1/3rd of junk bond market is fracking debt so tough to say how that would unfold.

So many dominoes these days

Deflation is a more dangerous D word than death, lol

commodities always lead the declines most of the damage there already done..

Equities are always the last to give in..

plus opec will speak and try to prop to some extent.. It may/probably (since I expect a big recession here) get down there but doubt it stays there very long very long..

 

[PatsFan1283]

I do wonder how much a big recession would hit housing?

Most of the debt isn't nearly as bad as it was last time. A lot of cash buying from stock gains and/or at affordable low rates from 09-2012 when prices were much cheaper.

Don't really see that unwinding too violently.

 

[tiznow]

Yeah not gonna be a financial system could go up type thing like last time which is more reason the fed may just let it go and flush rather than dipping back into the QE well again..

average joe never recovered still paycheck to paycheck.. Rents all time highs in relation to income.. Savings rate sucks.. Job recovery farce just a lot of crappy pay jobs in generals.. M&a boom fueled by cheap debt pretty much taken as far as it can be taken.. Everybody made their moves already... Share butbacks on cheap debt have fluffed corporate numbers ever since QE started.. Elites will tighten their belts as stocks fade.. Etc..

 

[tiznow]

And yeah China plays into the equation too as they have been the key global driver of growth for a long time now.. Kinda been holding the fort together so to speak as the western world flops around and flounders.. And driven growth in the heavy commodity economies like Canada, Brazil, aussie.. High oil in the oil exporting countries .

 

[tiznow]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/asia/...y-disappears-after-military-parade/index.html

regarding our recent discussion of global fossil fuel use ... Ridiculous how smoggy China is.. Governement had a lot of stuff shut down so they could get blue skies for their flexing of muscles military show off..

As for markets seems like classic inverted flag with choppiness after the big drop doing some digestion.. till we eventually break down to new lows soon..

 

[PatsFan1283]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/asia/...y-disappears-after-military-parade/index.html

regarding our recent discussion of global fossil fuel use ... Ridiculous how smoggy China is.. Governement had a lot of stuff shut down so they could get blue skies for their flexing of muscles military show off..

As for markets seems like classic inverted flag with choppiness after the big drop doing some digestion.. till we eventually break down to new lows soon..

Yeah they're really bad but atleast they do seem to understand the problem.

Manufacturing a lot of solar, investing in nukes.

They need to develop their infrastructure better so that they can use EVs. BYD is basically the Tesla over there so there is some chance that they try to go that route.

One advantage they have over us is they won't have as much infrastructure/entrenched business to replace, just need to build out etc. Not sure how meaningful of an advantage that is, but it could be significant in turns of initiative.

I can't imagine their end game goal is to double fossil fuel consumption over the next 15 years. If I thought it was I'd go all in on oil right now.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I'm either going to be filthy rich or dead broke on this DNR. Can't get enough at these prices.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'm either going to be filthy rich or dead broke on this DNR. Can't get enough at these prices.

Other than thinking oil is at its nadir and they have a unique business model, what other pro-DNR opinions do you have that would persuade someone to buy at these levels?

 

[tiznow]

So what the fed gonna do tomorrow?

They gonna do the smart thing and hike to prick the QE/0% rate for way too long bubble or let it build even more? Also by hiking it gives them some wiggle room down the road if things do get bad..

I'll believe it when I see it still say they don't hike..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Don't think they will hike tomorrow. CME Group says 23% chance.

How many times you think the central bank is mentioned during the debate tonight?

Over .5 +180
Under .5 -220

Never know though. Maybe with it being topical it could comeup during a discussion about the economy.

 

[mickj]

I'm either going to be filthy rich or dead broke on this DNR. Can't get enough at these prices.

Did they do any hedging when oil was around $100?

 

[CHOPTALK]

Other than thinking oil is at its nadir and they have a unique business model, what other pro-DNR opinions do you have that would persuade someone to buy at these levels?

Its a safe play at these levels.

the reason why is because I know these people.
I have a personal relationship with this company.
They will never go under and their price per barrel cost goes down as the price of oil goes down because Co2 goes down in price pretty much in line with the price of oil.

They are still profitable and have very low overhead.

I don't have to worry about them going belly up.

Its about the safest $3 stock you will ever see.

Not many stocks this low in price has a healthy balance sheet like Denbury

 

[tiznow]

When you examine historical data and estimate actual correlations and effect sizes, the dogmatic belief that the Fed can “fine tune” anything in the economy is utter hogwash. At the same time, the demonstrated ability of the Fed to provoke yield-seeking speculation and malinvestment is as clear as day. An activist Federal Reserve is an engine of disaster and little more. Even with the best intentions, a dogmatic Fed, unrestrained by reasonable rules and constraints, is a reckless and deceptive beast, constantly offering to heal the nation with precisely the same actions that inflicted the wounds in the first place.

http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc150914.htm

 

[tiznow]

The real problem isn’t what the Fed may do, but the ultimately unavoidable consequences of what the Fed has already done. The cost of reckless Fed-induced yield seeking will likely be felt first in the financial markets as previous paper gains evaporate, while defaults on excessive low-quality covenant-lite credit will emerge over the course of the economic cycle, and the impact of malinvestment will be to limit productivity and economic growth over the longer run. This is all rather inevitable except in the eyes of those who haven’t watched and memorized a dozen adaptations of the same movie.