sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

Oil rally continues

sounds like opec wants to protect 40 dollar a barrel all those guys budgets can't handle sub 40 oil for very long my guess they try to keep it 50-60 for a while to continue to put pressure on the us frackers that were funded my lots cheap fed fueled debt...also is oil output peaked in April so pressure on crackers starting to be felt on supply side

as for solar I guess my overall point is it has its place especially in very sunny locales but expecting it to fulfill the worlds growing energy needs in a humongous way from an economic standpoint seems silly.. Yes it will get better yes it will grow in useage but faster than the growth rate of worlds energy needs im not so sure

as for sun there are many major U.S. cities that are overcast over half the year .. Pacific Northwest.. Cleveland a few that come to mind.. Solar there just hard to see from economic standpoint

 

[tiznow]

Also I'm thinking globally here not us centric thinking..

Billions of poor people just starting to poke their noses into the middle class in China and India can't afford solar etc... Many nukes in the works on both countries no other choice besides heavy fossil fuel/dirty coal useage

 

[PatsFan1283]

At this point in time solar can compete on its own with one caveat......make the playing field level. Take all of the incentives away from all of its competitors and see who wins. Solar will win.

No one wants a nuclear plant in their back yard.....no insurance company will insure it. What is the cost to store the waste forever?

Oil heavy subsides. How is it $3 in USA and $8 in Europe?

Let the price of other sources reach the real market rates and then see where we are. Minnesota did an extensive study to determine the value of solar and it was higher than the net metering rate that the utility companies are whining about. Utility companies becareful what you wish for.

The grid is old and needs replacing....that drives cost up and just makes solar more affordable.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room that is going to fight it to the death is those making millions off selling oil or the utility companies.

Was asked how to drive the cost down? As panels become more efficient...I need to install less panels...which takes less time which makes them more affordable. A couple of places we can really improve on are the soft costs. Everyone has their hand out. City charging a permit fee based on the price of the project. We did a large project on at a university and the city had a fee based on the cost of the project. Same city we did a small residential project also based on the size of the project. City inspector took less than one hour for both jobs yet the larger projects paid thousands for their permit. Complained to the mayor and city council after the project that they are out of line. Had another city that wanted $900 on a $20,000 solar array...ridiculous.

The other big soft cost is the 800 pound gorilla that makes the paperwork and process a nightmare....adds time and cost. Do a google search on Xcel Energy and Solar City filed a complaint about how much added work they require and the time it takes to get hooked up to the grid with them. A recent article in Startribune for a company that has had a $1,000,000 built and has been delayed all summer getting hooked to the grid. Louis Industries is the company. I am laughing a bit because I bid a solar job with him and I didnt know a college buddy had a bid in too. I think he was keeping his buddy honest.....plus his buddy didnt do a good job either but this is typical of the energy companies. Delay the process as much as possible. Sometimes it takes 60-90 days of hounding the utility company...in the meantime a fully functional solar array sits there and cant be used. It costs money to dedicate staff to hounding the utility company.

This is what I want for the most part. A true free market where energy sources have to compete on quality and price, rather than on which political party is in office and which energy source is in favor with them.

Unfortunately, it isn't really possible to cut subsidies to oil besides some of the easier ones. A lot of those subsidies have been around forever and are very tough to undue (which is why any politician that says they want to cut subsidies for all is mostly BSing) Atleast in oil's case, the gov't does make their $ back with the subsidies in the form of gas taxes. Solar has gotten a leg up on coal right now though based on coal getting killed by nat gas and also regulations so can't complain too much.

I understand what you are saying about solar winning on cost but you can't ignore the intermittency issues. It is still going to need a baseload like coal or nat gas for a little while until storage/battery tech advances. In your opinion, how fast do you see that progressing? I'd say 5-10 years but it is tough to say, I definitely think people are giving Tesla that industry a little too early. Who knows who is able to best capture it. It might even be the utilities as they are fighting for survival.

Definitely agree about commercial/industrial with powerpack that solar is a no brainer there. Bunch of stupid regulations by pathetic crony capitalists.

 

[tiznow]

How is it 3 in the US 8 in Europe?

you talking gas prices??

its tax rates

For every litre of unleaded petrol bought in the UK, 61 per cent of the pump price goes to the government as fuel duty and VAT along with 59 per cent of every litre of diesel.

Europe creates large incentives to take public transportation vs to drive .. Kinda like smokes tax the shit outta it to drive up price so less people consume it...

are you talking natural gas??

us natural gas is landlocked.. We got lots of it and can't push it to global market where it is more expensive..

 

[PatsFan1283]

How is it 3 in the US 8 in Europe?

you talking gas prices?

its tax rates

For every litre of unleaded petrol bought in the UK, 61 per cent of the pump price goes to the government as fuel duty and VAT along with 59 per cent of every litre of diesel.

Europe creates large disincentives to drive vs public transportation.. Kinda like smokes tax the shit outta it to drive up price to unaffordabikity...

are you talking natural gas??

us natural gas is landlocked.. We got lots of it and can't push it to global market where it is more expensive..

He is just talking price at the pump I'm pretty sure.

As far as solar/renewables go, charging stations for EVs homes with solar that drive EVs should be a big use going forward. As well as fleets that have EVs (think Uber)

If everyone is charging all day and all at once then grid gonna be F'd. This is why we need more micro or smart grids where renewables can power the fleet. Otherwise going EVs pretty pointless if you are just using coal or nat gas. It is better on emissions than oil but not by a ton or anything. We want to get to 0 emission.

 

[tiznow]

We are a global community we can get to zero emission all we want.. Still got China and India out there.. I forget the percent but significant amount of smog on west coast originates from China..

It may be doable here with moderate population growth and energy needs of the population not skyrocketing..

China/India scale with billions and skyrocketing energy demands.. only two choices really for a bulk of the energy.. Nukes or fossil fuels..

his gas comment makes no sense then gas in Europe all taxes.. Has nothing to do with subsidies... There hasn't been a new refinery built in this country in 30 years I think ..

 

[PatsFan1283]

We are a global community we can get to zero emission all we want.. Still got China and India out there.. I forget the percent but significant amount of smog on west coast originates from China..

It may be doable here with moderate population growth and energy needs of the population not skyrocketing..

China/India scale with billions and skyrocketing energy demands.. only two choices really for a bulk of the energy.. Nukes or fossil fuels..

his gas comment makes no sense then gas in Europe all taxes.. Has nothing to do with subsidies... There hasn't been a new refinery built in this country in 30 years I think ..

Yeah I know. He was wrong on why there is a discrepancy, was just pointing out what he meant.

Agree on solar being way tougher to scale over 7B and growing global population obviously. My interest in solar is moreso economical rather than environmental. Getting to 0 emissions nice but I want to see it be with energy becoming cheaper than ever. I think it has value in China/India as well, just not as more than maybe 20-25% of energy usage. Even Saudi's looking at it because they waste so much oil subsidizing it to their own people.

Solar+storage just gives people an ability to potentially detach from the grid in a way we've never seen before as well as to fuel vehicles cheaply in a way we've never had before. If cars start driving themselves then a centralized fleet powered by renewables would be very efficient and much more affordable than individuals having rooftop. Especially in poorer areas.

It's a great 1st world solution if implemented properly.

I do think long-term if you want to get to 0 emissions then you have to take the Nuke risk. Just like if you want to get the most out of robotics then you have to take the AI risk but that is a little down the line.

My issue with utility scale solar vs rooftop is that it is mainly the same way we distribute power now. Utility produces it, has to get 7% to investors, pay employees, maintain grid and other expenses and marks it up. That is the real reason it is cheaper to put it on your roof for consumer, because a billion dollar business doesn't get their cut. Even if utility can be done far cheaper per watt than rooftop.

 

[tiznow]

Plus I don't know the ins and outs of solar panels and batteries .. But economics wise when you start making tons of these the starting raw materials will rise in price unless you have an ample source of these resources... Feel free either of u to comment on this issue..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Plus I don't know the ins and outs of solar panels and batteries .. But economics wise when you start making tons of these the starting raw materials will rise in price unless you have an ample source of these resources... Feel free either of u to comment on this issue..

I know little about PV panel manufacturing other than that it is dirty and mostly done in China.

As far as lithium-ion batteries and rare earths, I've read some on this and most of it is in China, Australia, parts of S. America. Nevada has the most in the US. I've read that as it becomes more of a commodity that we can probably extract it from deep sea mining as well. Not sure what the limit is there but it brings up why infrastructure so important. Hydrogen fuel cell be a good option in areas as well, rather than just EVs.

A lot in Congo as well, so maybe we just invade there eventually.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I do agree with you Tiz people need to bite the bullet and accept Nukes.

Just giving an alternative opinion on the viability of solar.

Notice the utilities don't bitch about wind? Because they own most of it and it doesn't really change anything for them.

 

[tiznow]

Exactly all I'm trying to say us humans have overpopulated the planet and continue our voracious appetite for energy with no end in site.. Either we keep on a polluting like crazy with fossil fuels and go oh shit this place is becoming uninhabitable eventually.. Or build lots nukes and hope things don't go wrong ...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah...nuclear is definitely the long-term answer but it takes time and capital. What do you do with the waste? I believe Gates new company plans on reducing waste with the traveling waste reactor rather than the traditional light water reactors.

In the mean time I think solar has value. Especially when we're talking about the economics and reducing peoples monthly bills rather than just 0 emission.

Checkout Gates TerraPower site sometime Tiz. He is investing a billion in it so he must have high expectations. He gave a TED talk on nuclear being the future as well. He likes the renewables but says realistically you can't get that to 3rd world countries economically.

 

[tiznow]

Yeah I don't have the answers on the waste that's for the nuke scientists to figure out.. The overall negativity fed to masses around nuke just ridiculous... But understandable (status quo protecting by the elites)

In the end the human race is doomed .. Just a matter of when we hit critical mass as we continue to plunder the environment, food sources, clean water etc...

Only drastic solution I see is mass sterilizations of some sort lmao.. Mother Nature tries to off us with diseases but we too good at fighting it...

Anywho we won't be around to see any of it lol.. We'll just continue to see an increase in the frequency of mass unrest globally the next 30+ years as we continue to multiply with most living like shit while a few owning pretty everything in our now globalize economy..

 

[eek.]

In the end the human race is doomed .. Just a matter of when we hit critical mass as we continue to plunder the environment, food sources, clean water etc...
Only drastic solution I see is mass sterilizations of some sort lmao.. Mother Nature tries to off us with diseases but we too good at fighting it...

We should be getting off planet, expending our resources on the colonisation of new worlds kinda thing
Instead of that we're expending our resources on trainers and ipads and personal pleasures

If we don't get off planet then it'll all end in tears, one way or another, the human race is turning into one of those Australian mouse plagues

 

[eek.]

We have a swarm heading for Europe at the moment, the numbers are heading for millions a year

Hungary is one of the losers just now

Kinda amusing for an old duffer like me. 70 years ago these countries kicked the horrible white colonialists out of their countries and set themselves on a path of freedom and self-determination...
...now millions are banging on the gates of those old colonialist powers trying to get back in...

 

[tiznow]

Bounce over time to start testing the recent low in coming days ... futures off 2%

 

[tiznow]

In the end the human race is doomed .. Just a matter of when we hit critical mass as we continue to plunder the environment, food sources, clean water etc...
Only drastic solution I see is mass sterilizations of some sort lmao.. Mother Nature tries to off us with diseases but we too good at fighting it...

We should be getting off planet, expending our resources on the colonisation of new worlds kinda thing
Instead of that we're expending our resources on trainers and ipads and personal pleasures

If we don't get off planet then it'll all end in tears, one way or another, the human race is turning into one of those Australian mouse plagues

Where are we gonna go? Everywhere else close will take lots of resources to survive on.. We should focus on sustaining what we have IMO.. But we doing exact opposite obviously pillaging it for all its worth..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Colonize mars, only problem is the AI will follow.

 

[PatsFan1283]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjTexHr40-k

Here is part 1 of Elon's new book on audio if anyone wants to check it out.

 

[tiznow]

Only way Mars makes any sense beyond rich people doing it cause they can.. Or a exit escape plan for end of humanity on earth.. is if they can find a way to terraform the planet..

resources wasted on life support systems would be huge..