Well, dont put words in my mouth based on what tiznows posts.
If the fed decides to cut rates to zero and print a few trillion dollars to bail out every delinquent mortgage, the market could nominally skyrocket.
In a nutshell, thats whats been keeping the us stock averages afloat since they tanked in 01-02. Printing money and fueling a housing bubble thats currently bursting.
Unless the market is being compared to other things to gauge the real returns, what it "goes up or down" is mostly noise.
Seriously though, I dont know why it bothers you so much what people that are bearish post here.
Since the us markets are down 2%+ today, its time to post some smiley/dancing guys.
If the fed decides to cut rates to zero and print a few trillion dollars to bail out every delinquent mortgage, the market could nominally skyrocket.
In a nutshell, thats whats been keeping the us stock averages afloat since they tanked in 01-02. Printing money and fueling a housing bubble thats currently bursting.
Unless the market is being compared to other things to gauge the real returns, what it "goes up or down" is mostly noise.
Seriously though, I dont know why it bothers you so much what people that are bearish post here.
Since the us markets are down 2%+ today, its time to post some smiley/dancing guys.
ope: :ears:Since I like you as a poster, Im not laughing about this.
You've posted plenty of winners, so as long as your overall portfolio is doing well, one stock tanking shouldnt make much difference.
If you are so convinced you are going to hold the stocks you own for many years, why are you watching them day-to-day?
Well, dont put words in my mouth based on what tiznows posts.
If the fed decides to cut rates to zero and print a few trillion dollars to bail out every delinquent mortgage, the market could nominally skyrocket.
In a nutshell, thats whats been keeping the us stock averages afloat since they tanked in 01-02. Printing money and fueling a housing bubble thats currently bursting.
Unless the market is being compared to other things to gauge the real returns, what it "goes up or down" is mostly noise.
Seriously though, I dont know why it bothers you so much what people that are bearish post here.
Since the us markets are down 2%+ today, its time to post some smiley/dancing guys.
yeah me and DAW in a different category
i'm bearish across the board pretty much every asset class
commodities included even though i still hold quite a bit of physical gold
although i can see a scenerio where markets are basically flat for a long time, dollar tanking, and gold skying
i'll be fine in that scenerio too
its good to be hedged
its not about good or bad news
its the news that is gonna come in the FUTURE and continue to come that i am PREDICTING will be bad, when you invest you are basing it on future prospects
i have nothing to do with what news is to come
i'm never gonna be a permabull or permabear
i'll be bullish when i think the time is right but that time IMO is not gonna be for quite some time
Unless a person is very wealthy, its pointless (if even possible at all) and more or less dumb to be completely hedged.
I will agree with hitman, that this is the type of post you make where you are talking out of both sides of your mouth.
If you arent already rich, you arent making a penny if youve covered every angle of potential risk.
You are bearish about commodities including gold, but still hold quite a bit of physical gold?
In certain scenarios (a banking/credit collapse), its rational to be bearish regarding overall commodities, but still bullish regarding precious metals.
These types of posts dont go without notice here.
i'm not "completely hedged"
i have conservative longs meaning for the most part big companies that can survive a fall, bellweathers stuff that people will use forever
like beer, smokes and water
i have agressive shorts aka 2x inverse funds as well as shorting alot of froth like amzn
i have cash
i have physical gold
my portfolio lives and dies by my shorts in my postion as that's what i have the most of and is the most agressive
i have conservative longs meaning for the most part big companies that can survive a fall, bellweathers stuff that people will use forever
like beer, smokes and water
i have agressive shorts aka 2x inverse funds as well as shorting alot of froth like amzn
i have cash
i have physical gold
my portfolio lives and dies by my shorts in my postion as that's what i have the most of and is the most agressive
good luck tiznow and a true bear market is what we need to find some real bargains after the weak hands are forced out of their positions.
a bear like early 1970s would really shake out alot of people who still think they are going to forever buy and hold.
id like nothing more than to see some of this dead wood finally get washed out to sea.
d1g1t
we've mentioned this before in this thread, but starbucks (sbux) made new 3 year lows this afternoon.
it was dumb to begin with...but thats another story altogether....the days of millions of people paying 5 bucks everyday for a cup of joe have officially ended.
the time to tighten belts is here for a while folks.
a bear like early 1970s would really shake out alot of people who still think they are going to forever buy and hold.
id like nothing more than to see some of this dead wood finally get washed out to sea.
d1g1t
we've mentioned this before in this thread, but starbucks (sbux) made new 3 year lows this afternoon.
it was dumb to begin with...but thats another story altogether....the days of millions of people paying 5 bucks everyday for a cup of joe have officially ended.
the time to tighten belts is here for a while folks.
we overdue for a p/e of 5 on average type bear to really get people worked up haven't had one of those in a long time
the bottom bull in 2002 started at highest valuations ever p/e wise
IMO a secular bear started in 2000, last 5 years a cyclical bull
secular bears last 17 years on average
i mean what has really changed still got amzn trading at p/e of 100 and shit
the bottom bull in 2002 started at highest valuations ever p/e wise
IMO a secular bear started in 2000, last 5 years a cyclical bull
secular bears last 17 years on average
i mean what has really changed still got amzn trading at p/e of 100 and shit
I live within walking distance from a large university.
Since buying my house 15 years ago, Ive not seen homes for sale sitting for months like they are currently. Homes in this area used to sell in a week and often the same day they were listed for sale. Also, now nearly every sign reads "price reduced" and yet they are still not selling.
Among the many problems in the American economy and overall monetary system, the real estate market becoming a trainwreck is whats most threatening.
The negative wealth effect people are going to suffer once they realize their homes are a depreciating asset is going to be tremendous.
I know guys that have made their living for their entire adult lives, working on houses and/or various construction type jobs. All cash jobs, so they have no insurance, no unemployment, and unless a miracle happens before next spring, they will be completely broke next spring when there is no work for them.
Same story for the many realtors, appraisers, and mortgage brokers who just a couple years ago, thought they had discovered how to forever turn lead into gold, are now being humbled and humilated.
Not for the blue collar construction guys, since they actually believed it would someday end, but for the mortgage broker types, last week I attached a pie pan to my front porch, since as a result of their own hubris and arrogance, the time has arrived for many of them to get a pie in the face.
The keys to their leased bmw cars and overpriced condos will soon be in the mail and they'll be eating catfood instead of spending $5 bucks a day for a cup of coffee.
Anyway, Im finished here for today, since hitman is probably melting down reading these posts.
Since buying my house 15 years ago, Ive not seen homes for sale sitting for months like they are currently. Homes in this area used to sell in a week and often the same day they were listed for sale. Also, now nearly every sign reads "price reduced" and yet they are still not selling.
Among the many problems in the American economy and overall monetary system, the real estate market becoming a trainwreck is whats most threatening.
The negative wealth effect people are going to suffer once they realize their homes are a depreciating asset is going to be tremendous.
I know guys that have made their living for their entire adult lives, working on houses and/or various construction type jobs. All cash jobs, so they have no insurance, no unemployment, and unless a miracle happens before next spring, they will be completely broke next spring when there is no work for them.
Same story for the many realtors, appraisers, and mortgage brokers who just a couple years ago, thought they had discovered how to forever turn lead into gold, are now being humbled and humilated.
Not for the blue collar construction guys, since they actually believed it would someday end, but for the mortgage broker types, last week I attached a pie pan to my front porch, since as a result of their own hubris and arrogance, the time has arrived for many of them to get a pie in the face.
The keys to their leased bmw cars and overpriced condos will soon be in the mail and they'll be eating catfood instead of spending $5 bucks a day for a cup of coffee.
Anyway, Im finished here for today, since hitman is probably melting down reading these posts.
Yeah, CNBC is a bastion of fair and balanced economic news. When you tell guests to put a positive spin on things? Sounds like the rose colored glasses in this thread.
http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071204.htm
“I appeared briefly on CNBC last week to discuss recession risk, but beforehand, I was asked to put a positive tone on my comments, to which I responded – “Look, my interest is in making sure that investors have positions that they are able to hold through the complete market cycle, including a potential 30% bear market loss off the highs, without having their financial security endangered. If they're carrying more risk than they could endure through the course of a bear market, they should cut back now. I'm not going to wave my arms around about doom and gloom, but I think it's a crucial time for investors to think about the risk they're taking, and if you don't want me to say that, please don't have me on.” Well, I went on, and though we ran short of time, that's still my message.”
http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071204.htm
“I appeared briefly on CNBC last week to discuss recession risk, but beforehand, I was asked to put a positive tone on my comments, to which I responded – “Look, my interest is in making sure that investors have positions that they are able to hold through the complete market cycle, including a potential 30% bear market loss off the highs, without having their financial security endangered. If they're carrying more risk than they could endure through the course of a bear market, they should cut back now. I'm not going to wave my arms around about doom and gloom, but I think it's a crucial time for investors to think about the risk they're taking, and if you don't want me to say that, please don't have me on.” Well, I went on, and though we ran short of time, that's still my message.”
